Ongoing U.S.-Iran diplomacy and the April 2026 ceasefire, brokered via Pakistan and extended through negotiations on nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz access, have anchored trader expectations against a ground invasion before 2027. U.S. and Israeli operations since February, including airstrikes on missile and nuclear sites plus naval blockades, achieved capability degradation without committing forces for territorial control or occupation. Pentagon planning has emphasized air and sea options over large-scale troop deployments, consistent with statements prioritizing achievable objectives short of invasion. Recent Senate testimony and indirect talks reinforce de-escalation signals, sustaining the 84.5% implied probability for no invasion amid persistent but contained tensions.