**Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions center on airstrikes, sanctions, and negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program rather than any ground invasion.** A U.S.-Israel air and missile campaign began in February 2026, damaging Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure and leading to Iranian retaliation and a temporary naval blockade. A June memorandum of understanding established a ceasefire framework, reopened shipping routes in principle, and set a 60-day window for broader talks on sanctions relief and nuclear limits, though compliance has been uneven with recurring limited strikes into September. Analysts note that full-scale U.S. ground operations on Iranian territory face steep logistical, political, and escalation barriers, including high troop requirements and risks of wider regional conflict. U.S. statements and actions have emphasized air power, economic measures, and targeted coastal or maritime strikes over large-scale troop deployments. With only months remaining before 2027 and no confirmed shift toward invasion planning, traders assign an 85.5% probability to "No," reflecting the established pattern of contained hostilities and preference for coercive diplomacy over ground commitments.