Ongoing diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran, including indirect talks on nuclear issues, ballistic missiles, sanctions, and control of the Strait of Hormuz, have sustained trader expectations that no ground invasion will occur before 2027. U.S. and Israeli operations since early 2026 have centered on airstrikes, missile campaigns, and naval blockades rather than committing conventional forces to seize territory, consistent with stated objectives of degrading Iranian capabilities without occupation. A temporary ceasefire agreed in April 2026 has been extended amid continued talks, with no large-scale troop deployments or invasion plans reported through late May. Congressional resolutions seeking to limit further military action and public polling showing skepticism toward expanded involvement reinforce the 84.5% implied probability for No, though risks persist if negotiations collapse.