Ongoing diplomatic negotiations and a temporary ceasefire since April 2026, following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes that began in late February, underpin the 83.5% trader consensus against a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027. U.S. operations have focused on missile and air campaigns targeting military infrastructure and leadership, alongside naval blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, without any reported commitment of ground forces to seize or hold territory. Indirect talks mediated by Oman and Pakistan continue over nuclear limits, sanctions relief, and maritime access, with recent proposals for extended ceasefires and asset releases signaling preference for de-escalation over occupation. Congressional scrutiny and public polling further constrain escalation risks through 2026.