Ongoing diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran, including indirect talks mediated by Pakistan, have advanced toward a framework addressing the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear issues, and sanctions following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli airstrikes and subsequent ceasefire. U.S. operations have centered on missile and air campaigns plus naval measures rather than ground forces aimed at territorial control, consistent with administration priorities focused on degrading capabilities without occupation. The extended truce and absence of large-scale troop commitments through May 2026 underpin trader consensus on an 83.5% probability that no invasion to establish control occurs before 2027, though collapse of talks could alter the trajectory.