Bilateral ties between the United States and Colombia have historically centered on security cooperation, counternarcotics, and trade, with Colombia designated a major non-NATO ally. Early 2026 tensions involving drug policy disputes and sharp rhetoric between the Trump administration and President Gustavo Petro raised brief concerns, yet these subsided following Colombia’s presidential election and the August 7 inauguration of Abelardo de la Espriella. The U.S. response included a high-level delegation, renewed security assistance commitments, and explicit steps to reset the partnership. With no active military preparations, territorial disputes, or policy shifts indicating invasion plans through year-end, traders assign overwhelming probability to no U.S. invasion occurring in 2026. Unforeseen developments such as a major escalation in transnational crime networks or abrupt diplomatic rupture could theoretically alter trajectories, though current evidence points to sustained cooperation.