Lula's position as incumbent seeking a fourth term underpins his leading 50.5% implied probability in the 2026 race, reinforced by recent scandals that have eroded support for main challenger Flávio Bolsonaro. June polls from Quaest, MDA, and others show Lula at 41-43% in first-round intentions ahead of Flávio at 28-34%, with the gap widening after audio leaks tied the senator to a disgraced banker and prompted voter scrutiny. Fragmentation among other right-leaning figures including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos limits unified opposition, while concerns over crime and economic performance shape voter priorities ahead of the October 4 first round. Trader consensus reflects these dynamics, with lower odds for alternatives underscoring the binary contest emerging between the Workers' Party and Liberal Party standard-bearers.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCNT/MDA poll shows Lula extends advantage over Flávio Bolsonaro in runoff
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 51%10%
A CNT/MDA poll showed Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro by a significant margin in a potential runoff, reinforcing Lula's frontrunner status and influencing market confidence in his victory.
Lula picks Geraldo Alckmin again as running mate for re-election bid
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 50%9%
Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced that Vice President Geraldo Alckmin will run again as his vice-presidential candidate, reinforcing the established ticket and stabilizing Lula's market position.
Camilo Santana receives Paulo Freire Medal from Fortaleza council
Camilo Santana rises to 4%3%
The Fortaleza City Council awarded Camilo Santana the Paulo Freire Medal, raising his visibility in the Northeast and nudging his market price from 1 % (Jun 8) to 4 % (Jun 12).
Poll shows Lula widening lead over Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of election
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 52%10%
A poll released in June 2026 showed Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro 39% to 29% in a first-round scenario, reinforcing Lula's position as the frontrunner and impacting market prices accordingly.
Poll shows Lula widens lead over Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of election
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 51%10%
A poll conducted after reports linking Flávio Bolsonaro to a jailed banker showed Lula increasing his lead in a potential runoff, reflecting a shift in voter sentiment and impacting market prices favoring Lula.
Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 41% in runoff scenario
A Genial/Quaest poll showed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 41% each in a potential runoff, reinforcing the market's view of a highly competitive election and stabilizing their prices.
Real‑time Big Data poll puts Renan Santos at 6 % nationally
Renan Santos rises to 16%3%
Real‑time Big Data released a poll showing Renan Santos at 6 % nationally, a jump from 2 % a month earlier. The surge coincided with his market price jumping from 13 % on May 21 to 16 % on June 2.
Renan Santos leads among young voters in polls, boosting market support
Renan Santos rises to 14%1%
Polls showed Renan Santos leading with 36.1% support among voters aged 24 and younger, contributing to his market price rise to 14% and positioning him as a notable third-way candidate.
Renan Santos leads as the main ‘third‑way’ candidate in Real Time Big Data poll
Renan Santos jumps to 15%10%
Real Time Big Data released a poll showing Renan Santos as the leading “third‑way” candidate with 26 % support, up from single‑digit figures a month earlier. The surge raised his market price from 5 % (May 20) to 15 % (Jun 12).
Lula picks same running mate Geraldo Alckmin for 2026 re-election bid
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 51%10%
Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced that Vice President Geraldo Alckmin will run again as his running mate in the 2026 election, reinforcing his campaign stability and contributing to a market price rebound to 51%.
President Lula has cataract surgery in Brasília
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 41%3%
President Lula underwent cataract surgery in Brasília, a high‑profile health event that attracted extensive coverage. While the procedure itself was routine, the media attention reinforced his incumbency image, contributing to a modest rebound of his market price from 38 % on May 27 to 41 % on May 31.
Brazil’s Supreme Court authorises probe into Flávio Bolsonaro’s alleged defamation of Lula
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 29%11%
The Supreme Court allowed a probe into Flávio Bolsonaro for alleged defamation of President Lula. The legal action dampened his momentum, dragging his price from 40 % (May 28) to 29 % (Jun 4).
Renan Santos named leading ‘third‑way’ candidate in Real Time Big Data poll
Renan Santos rises to 16%3%
Real Time Big Data released a poll naming Renan Santos the leading figure of the "third way" with 16 % support, up from 4 % a month earlier. The surge aligns with the price jump from 13 % (early May) to 16 % on 3 Jun, indicating the poll drove his market move.
Flávio Bolsonaro meets with US President Trump amid campaign scandal
Flávio Bolsonaro met with former US President Donald Trump at the White House to bolster his image amid a scandal involving funding for a film about his father. This meeting was intended to strengthen his campaign and reassure supporters despite ongoing controversies.
Polls show Lula maintaining lead but facing tighter race with Bolsonaro
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 41%3%
Recent polls indicated Lula still leads but with a narrowing margin against Flávio Bolsonaro, reflecting a competitive race and explaining the market price convergence between the two candidates.
Romeu Zema criticizes Flávio Bolsonaro amid Vorcaro scandal
Romeu Zema drops to 6%5%
Romeu Zema publicly criticized Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign due to the Vorcaro scandal, increasing political tensions and impacting Zema's market position slightly.
Michelle Bolsonaro gains polling parity with Flávio Bolsonaro amid right-wing division
Michelle Bolsonaro rises to 2%1%
Recent polls showed Michelle Bolsonaro matching Flávio Bolsonaro's support in first and second-round scenarios against Lula, reflecting a split in the right-wing electorate and causing market adjustments.
Renan Santos announces presidential candidacy with anti-establishment platform
Renan Santos jumps to 13%6%
Renan Santos, leader of the Missão party, declared his candidacy emphasizing a right-wing renewal distinct from Bolsonarism and Lula's leftist agenda. His campaign gained traction among younger voters and those disillusioned with traditional politics, reflected in a market price surge.
Renan Santos declares presidential bid with agribusiness agenda
Renan Santos rises to 16%3%
Renan Santos, a former minister, announced his candidacy on 24 May 2026 and released a policy platform focused on agribusiness. The announcement pushed his market price from 13 % (24 May) to 16 % (3 Jun).
Renan Santos surges in polls and social media engagement after Flávio Bolsonaro scandal
Renan Santos jumps to 17%10%
Renan Santos, a right-wing candidate from the Mission Party, gained significant traction in polls and social media following revelations about Flávio Bolsonaro's funding scandal. His rise challenged traditional right-wing candidates and was reflected in increased market support.
Lula widens lead over Flávio Bolsonaro after 'Dark Horse' scandal, Datafolha shows
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 40%2%
Following the scandal involving Flávio Bolsonaro and Daniel Vorcaro, Lula's polling advantage increased to 40% against Flávio's 31%, reflecting voter backlash and impacting market prices.
Renan Santos gains support as right-wing alternative amid Bolsonaro unpopularity
Renan Santos jumps to 16%10%
Renan Santos' support surged in polls and markets as he positioned himself as an anti-corruption alternative to the unpopular Bolsonaro family, reflected in his market price rising from 6% to 16%.
Flávio Bolsonaro loses ground after Banco Master scandal audio release
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 32%13%
A Reuters story reported that Intercept Brasil published audio recordings showing Flávio Bolsonaro negotiating a US$24 million deal with disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro to finance a film about his father. The exposure caused a sharp backlash against Flávio, and his market price fell from a May‑7 high of 45 % to 32 % on May 18, then recovered to 29 % by June 2.
Datafolha poll shows Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro 47% to 43% in second round
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 47%6%
Datafolha polling indicated Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential second-round runoff, reinforcing Lula's position despite a close race and high rejection rates for both candidates.
Renan Santos spikes to double‑digit support in polling after scandal shocks right‑wing base
Renan Santos jumps to 16%9%
After the Vorcaro scandal lowered Flávio’s numbers, Renan Santos’ “third‑way” appeal surged. A Real Time Big Data poll released 21 May showed Renan at 13 % nationally, and the market price jumped from 7 % (14 May) to 13 % (21 May), later reaching 16 % on 4 Jun.
Renan Santos surges in polls and social media engagement after Flávio Bolsonaro scandal
Renan Santos jumps to 13%6%
Following the scandal involving Flávio Bolsonaro, Renan Santos gained significant traction among younger voters and anti-establishment blocs, leading to a rise in his market price from 7% to 13%.
Liberal Party reshuffles Flávio Bolsonaro campaign after scandal slide
Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 29%2%
Following the scandal, the PL announced a reshuffle of Flávio’s campaign team, appointing a new strategist and communications head to curb the fallout. The news halted the price decline, stabilising his support around 29 % (down from 34 % on 19 May).
Flávio Bolsonaro reshuffles campaign after poll slide amid scandal fallout
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 29%6%
Following a decline in polls linked to the Vorcaro scandal, Flávio Bolsonaro replaced his campaign communications director and sought to rebuild his campaign, reflecting internal party concerns about his viability.
Flávio Bolsonaro’s support drops sharply amid film funding scandal scrutiny
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 31%13%
Following increased scrutiny over a scandal involving Flávio Bolsonaro’s attempt to secure funding for a film about his father, his market support dropped significantly, reflecting voter concerns about transparency and ethics.
Michelle Bolsonaro’s social‑media video boosts her market visibility
Michelle Bolsonaro jumps to 5%5%
A short video of Michelle Bolsonaro praising her husband’s political legacy circulated on social media, causing a brief uptick in her market price from 0 % to 5 % the same day before returning to 1 % the following week. The move likely reflects temporary media attention rather than substantive electoral impact.
Renan Santos gains traction as alternative right-wing candidate
Renan Santos jumps to 13%7%
Following the scandal involving Flávio Bolsonaro, Renan Santos, leader of the Mission Party, gained significant support and donations, rising in polls and market prices as a credible anti-corruption alternative on the right.
Former President Jair Bolsonaro hospitalized briefly after prison fall
Flávio Bolsonaro plunges to 25%18%
Jair Bolsonaro was granted a brief leave from prison to undergo medical tests after falling from his bed, raising concerns about his health and impacting his presidential election prospects. This event likely contributed to a drop in his market probability from 43% to 25%.
Film funding scandal emerges involving Flávio Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 40%4%
Leaked messages revealed Flávio Bolsonaro's attempts to secure funding for a film about his father, sparking calls for investigation and adding controversy to his campaign. Despite this, his support remained resilient, reflecting the polarized political environment.
Datafolha poll ties Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro at 41 % each
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 45%5%
A Datafolha poll released on May 19 showed Lula and Flávio tied at ~41 % each, stabilising Lula’s market price after a dip, moving it from 40 % (May 12) back up to 45 % (May 19).
Audio scandal links Flávio Bolsonaro to banker Daniel Vorcaro
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 32%13%
Audio recordings showed Flávio Bolsonaro negotiating US$24 million with banker Daniel Vorcaro to fund a film about his father. The revelation caused a rapid drop in Flávio’s price (‑13 pp on 12 May → 15 May) and boosted Renan Santos and other opposition figures, explaining the May‑June swing in the market.
Renan Santos gains after release of Flávio Bolsonaro audio leak
Renan Santos jumps to 16%10%
Audio recordings of Flávio Bolsonaro asking Vorcaro for money were broadcast by Investidor10, which highlighted Renan Santos’ criticism of the “rabo preso” claim and positioned him as the anti‑corruption alternative. Renan’s market share jumped from 6 % to 10 % on May 17 and to 13 % on May 24, ending the period at 16 %.
Renan Santos surges in engagement and polling after Flávio Bolsonaro audio scandal
Renan Santos jumps to 16%10%
Following leaked audios implicating Flávio Bolsonaro in a funding scandal, Renan Santos gained significant traction on social media and in polls, boosting his market price as a rising right-wing alternative candidate.
Poll shows Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro after report linking Bolsonaro to disgraced banker
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 41%3%
An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll showed Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro in both first-round and runoff scenarios following reports linking Flávio to a disgraced banker, reinforcing Lula's position and causing a dip in Flávio's market price.
Report links Flávio Bolsonaro to disgraced banker, Lula leads in poll
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 41%12%
A report alleging ties between Flávio Bolsonaro and a disgraced banker caused a dip in Bolsonaro's support and a poll showed Lula leading, impacting market prices accordingly.
Poll shows Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro after film funding scandal
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 41%3%
A poll showed President Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round with 40% to 31%, reflecting the negative impact of the film funding scandal on Bolsonaro's campaign and a shift in voter sentiment.
Electoral Authority poll lifts Renan Santos to double‑digit support in Minas Gerais
Renan Santos rises to 13%4%
A regional poll released by the Superior Electoral Court showed Renan Santos jumping from 7 % to 9 % in Minas Gerais, sparking a surge to 13 % in the market as he emerged as a dark‑horse candidate.
Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in tight presidential race
A Datafolha poll reaffirmed a tight race with Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied in a head-to-head contest, reinforcing market perceptions of a highly competitive election and stabilizing their prices.
Poll shows Lula and Bolsonaro tied before Brazil’s presidential election
Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 29%3%
A poll released in mid-May 2026 showed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro neck and neck, reflecting the narrowing gap and intense competition leading up to the October election, influencing market prices to converge.
Datafolha poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 41‑41 %
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 45%7%
Datafolha released a poll showing Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 41 % each. The surprising strength of Lula’s lead caused his market price to climb from 38 % to 45 % over the next few days before it later slipped back, reflecting the market’s reaction to the narrowing gap.
Judge orders house arrest for 10 convicted in Bolsonaro coup plot
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 33%12%
A Brazilian judge issued house arrest orders for 10 people convicted in the Bolsonaro coup plot, signaling ongoing legal developments that kept Bolsonaro's political influence under scrutiny and affected market sentiment.
Renan Santos gains traction as right-wing alternative amid Bolsonaro scandal
Renan Santos jumps to 14%7%
Following the leaked audio scandal involving Flávio Bolsonaro, Renan Santos, leader of the Missão party, gained significant social media engagement and polling support, reflected in a market price increase from 7% to 14%.
PGR files calúnia complaint against Romeu Zema over videos targeting STF minister
Romeu Zema rises to 3%2%
The Prosecutor‑General of the Republic filed a criminal complaint against ex‑governor Romeu Zema for calúnia against STF minister Gilmar Mendes after Zema posted satirical videos linking the minister to the Banco Master case. The filing boosted Zema’s visibility and his price rose from 1 % on May 13 to 3 % on June 2.
Flávio Bolsonaro works to contain fallout from funding scandal
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 28%2%
Following leaked audio revelations, Flávio Bolsonaro met with campaign leadership to manage damage and maintain his candidacy, while some party members considered Michelle Bolsonaro as a fallback option, reflecting internal right-wing tensions.
PGR files defamation charge against Romeu Zema over STF satire videos
Romeu Zema rises to 5%2%
The Federal Prosecutor’s Office (PGR) filed a criminal defamation complaint against former Minas governor Romeu Zema for videos satirising Supreme Court ministers. Media coverage of the case raised Zema’s profile, lifting his market price from 3 % to 5 % before settling back at 3 % as the story faded.
PGR denounces ex‑governor Romeu Zema for calumny against STF minister
Romeu Zema rises to 5%4%
The PGR filed a complaint with the STJ accusing former governor Romeu Zema of calumny against STF minister Gilmar Mendes after Zema posted AI‑generated videos mocking the court. The legal exposure boosted his profile among anti‑establishment voters, moving his price from 1 % (31 Mar) to 2 % (4 Apr) and eventually to 5 % (mid‑May).
Leaked audio shows Flávio Bolsonaro seeking money from jailed banker for father’s film
Flávio Bolsonaro plunges to 28%16%
Intercept Brasil published leaked audio messages linking Flávio Bolsonaro to disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro, suggesting he tried to secure US$24 million for a film about his father. The story sparked a media firestorm and caused Flávio’s price to plunge from a peak of 44 % (May 2) to 28 % (May 25), while Lula’s price recovered to 45 % (May 19).
Flávio Bolsonaro moves to protect presidential bid amid funding scandal
Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 29%2%
Following the leaked funding scandal, Flávio Bolsonaro and his allies worked to contain the fallout, with some party members considering former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro as a fallback option. The scandal slowed Flávio's rise in polls and introduced uncertainty in his campaign.
Audio leak shows Flávio Bolsonaro negotiating film financing with Banco Master’s Daniel Vorcaro
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 31%12%
The Intercept Brasil published leaked audio showing Flávio Bolsonaro negotiating a R$ 134 million payment to Banco Master’s Daniel Vorcaro for a biopic of his father. The scandal depressed his perceived integrity, sending his price sharply down from 43 % (May 12) to 31 % (May 19).
Leaked audio reveals Flávio Bolsonaro sought funds for film about Jair Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 28%5%
An audio recording leaked showing Flávio Bolsonaro requesting money from former banker Daniel Vorcaro to finance a film about his father, causing political tension and prompting Flávio to work on damage control. This scandal contributed to a decline in his market price and raised speculation about Michelle Bolsonaro as a fallback candidate.
Lula's support dips to 37% amid rising competition
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 37%3%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's market price dropped to a low of 37% on May 5, 2026, reflecting increased competition and possible voter shifts towards other candidates like Flávio Bolsonaro.
Audio scandal ties Flávio Bolsonaro to banker Vorcaro, lifts Renan Santos
Renan Santos rises to 16%3%
A mid‑May audio scandal linking Flávio Bolsonaro to disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro was released, dragging Flávio’s price down and boosting Renan Santos as an anti‑corruption alternative. Renan’s market price rose from 13 % to 16 % in the same week.
Real Time poll puts Romeu Zema among top right‑wing contenders
Romeu Zema rises to 2%1%
A Real Time Big Data poll released on 14 May showed Romeu Zema’s support climbing to 9 %, prompting a modest rise in his market price from 1 % (Apr 4) to 2 % (Jun 12).
Flávio Bolsonaro linked to R$134 million film‑funding scandal
Flávio Bolsonaro plunges to 28%16%
The Intercept Brasil published leaked WhatsApp messages showing Flávio Bolsonaro asking disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro for R$134 million to fund a film about his father. The expose sparked a media firestorm and a Datafolha poll the next day showed Lula pulling ahead of Flávio, driving Flávio’s market price down from a recent high of 44 % to 28 % by the end of May.
Flávio Bolsonaro caught in R$ 134 million film‑funding audio scandal
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 33%10%
The Intercept Brasil published audio recordings showing Flávio Bolsonaro requesting R$ 134 million from banker Daniel Vorcaro to finance a film about his father. The scandal prompted a sharp drop in Flávio’s market price from 43 % to 33 % that week, while other candidates gained as voters shifted away from the candidate embroiled in corruption allegations.
Revelations of Flávio Bolsonaro's ties to disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro spark controversy
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 38%6%
Reports revealed Flávio Bolsonaro sought funding from banker Daniel Vorcaro for a film about his father, causing discomfort within his party and a temporary dip in his market price due to scandal concerns.
Audio leak shows Flávio Bolsonaro seeking funds from jailed banker for father‑biography film
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 31%14%
Intercept Brasil published leaked WhatsApp messages showing Flávio Bolsonaro asking banker Daniel Vorcaro for US$24 million to fund a film about his father. The revelation triggered a sharp market correction, with Flávio’s price falling from 45 % (7 May) to 31 % on 19 May, and further to 27 % by 12 Jun.
Revelation of Flávio Bolsonaro's film funding scandal involving jailed banker
Flávio Bolsonaro plunges to 29%15%
Intercept Brasil published leaked WhatsApp messages showing Flávio Bolsonaro soliciting R$134 million from jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro to finance a film about his father, causing a political scandal that dented Bolsonaro's polling and market support.
Poll shows Lula and Bolsonaro tied amid film funding scandal for Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro plunges to 29%15%
A Datafolha poll reaffirmed the tight race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, but Bolsonaro faced scrutiny over a film funding scandal involving alleged fraud, which introduced new uncertainty and may have contributed to his price decline in late May.
Scandal emerges over Flávio Bolsonaro's film funding deal with jailed banker
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 33%11%
Leaked WhatsApp messages revealed Flávio Bolsonaro sought $24 million from Daniel Vorcaro, a banker arrested for fraud, to finance a film about his father. This scandal raised questions about Bolsonaro's campaign financing and led to increased scrutiny, impacting his polling and market support.
Leaked audio reveals Flávio Bolsonaro negotiating film funding, sparking scandal
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 32%13%
Audio recordings surfaced showing Flávio Bolsonaro seeking $24 million from a jailed banker to finance a film about his father, causing a sharp drop in his market price and boosting support for Renan Santos as an anti-corruption alternative.
Audio leaks reveal Flávio Bolsonaro’s $12 m request to jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 32%13%
Audio recordings released showing Flávio Bolsonaro asking jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro for $12 million to fund a biopic caused a sharp market correction, dropping his price from a 45 % peak on May 7 to 32 % on May 18 (‑13 points within two days).
Poll shows Lula and Bolsonaro tied before Brazil’s presidential election
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 40%1%
A Datafolha poll reaffirmed the tight race with Lula and Bolsonaro tied, reflecting ongoing uncertainty and intense competition. This poll influenced market prices, with fluctuations for both candidates as the election approached.
Audio scandal reveals Flávio Bolsonaro sought $24 million film funding from jailed banker
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 32%13%
Leaked audio recordings showed Flávio Bolsonaro negotiating a $24 million deal with a jailed banker to finance a film about his father, causing a sharp drop in his market price from 45% to 32%, reflecting investor concerns about the scandal's impact on his campaign.
Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in simulated runoff
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 45%6%
A Quaest poll showed incumbent Lula and challenger Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied in a simulated runoff, with Lula at 42% and Flávio at 41%. This tight race increased market uncertainty and caused price adjustments reflecting a highly competitive election.
Real‑Time Big Data poll puts Renan Santos at 6 % amid Flávio scandal
Renan Santos jumps to 10%5%
A Real‑Time Big Data poll released on 13 May showed Renan Santos rising to 6 % nationally, up from 3 % a month earlier, after the Flávio scandal created a space for anti‑corruption alternatives. His market price climbed from 5 % on 10 May to 10 % on 13 May, beginning the longer‑term rise to 15 % by early June.
Scandal emerges linking Flávio Bolsonaro to film financing controversy
Flávio Bolsonaro plunges to 29%16%
Leaked WhatsApp messages revealed Flávio Bolsonaro's discussions with a banker imprisoned for fraud regarding financing a film about his father. This scandal damaged Bolsonaro's campaign credibility and contributed to a decline in his market price from 45% to 29%.
Vorcaro‑Master scandal forces Flávio Bolsonaro’s market price to tumble
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 33%12%
Media reports on the “Banco Master” scandal – audio recordings showing Flávio Bolsonaro requesting R$ 134 million from banker Daniel Vorcaro – caused his market price to plunge from a May‑7 peak of 45 % to 33 % on 14 May, the biggest swing in the window.
Leaked audios reveal Flávio Bolsonaro's film financing scandal
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 31%14%
Leaked WhatsApp messages showed Flávio Bolsonaro negotiating with banker Daniel Vorcaro for millions to finance a film about his father, sparking controversy and calls for investigation. This scandal caused a sharp drop in Flávio's market price and boosted Renan Santos as an alternative right-wing candidate.
Audio scandal involving Flávio Bolsonaro funding request leaks
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 32%13%
Leaked audio recordings revealed Flávio Bolsonaro negotiating funds with a jailed banker to finance a film about his father, causing a drop in his market price and benefiting right-wing alternatives like Renan Santos and Romeu Zema, who saw increased support.
Scandal emerges linking Flávio Bolsonaro to disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 37%6%
Reports revealed that Flávio Bolsonaro negotiated funding with Daniel Vorcaro, a banker under investigation for fraud, damaging his campaign and causing a drop in his polling and market support.
Scandal involving Flávio Bolsonaro and banker Daniel Vorcaro emerges
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 33%12%
Revelations about Flávio Bolsonaro's request for funds from banker Daniel Vorcaro to finance a film about his father caused a political scandal, leading to voter backlash and a decline in his market price from 45% to 33%.
Lula unveils expanded ‘Desenrola’ debt‑relief programme
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 45%9%
Lula launched a new ‘Desenrola’ debt‑relief programme aimed at renegotiating household debt. The policy announcement helped stop Lula’s slide, pushing his price back up from a low of 36 % (Apr 27) to 40 % (May 5) and later to 45 % (May 19).
Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied before Brazil’s presidential election
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 34%7%
A Datafolha poll showed a tight race with Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in a head-to-head contest, reflecting a narrowing gap and intense competition. This poll influenced market prices, with Flávio gaining ground and Lula's support declining.
Flávio Bolsonaro linked to funding scandal involving disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro
Flávio Bolsonaro plunges to 25%19%
Leaked audios revealed Flávio Bolsonaro negotiating millions with a disgraced banker to finance a film about his father, causing volatility and a decline in his market price from 44% to 25%.
Datafolha poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in runoff
Flávio Bolsonaro plunges to 29%15%
Datafolha poll reaffirmed the tight race with Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in a head-to-head contest, reflecting the intense competition and influencing market prices.
Poll shows Lula and Bolsonaro tied before Brazil’s presidential election
A Datafolha poll showed Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 45% each in a head-to-head contest, indicating a highly competitive race. This poll was conducted before a scandal involving Bolsonaro's campaign emerged, reflecting the tight race dynamics.
Flávio Bolsonaro’s price drops 10 points after controversial interview
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 33%12%
An interview in which Flávio made inflammatory remarks led to a rapid decline from 45 % to 33 %, reflecting voter backlash.
Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied before Brazil’s presidential election
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 41%2%
A Datafolha poll showed incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and challenger Flávio Bolsonaro neck and neck ahead of the October election, reflecting a tightening race and explaining the market price convergence between the two candidates.
Audio leak reveals Flávio Bolsonaro seeking $24 million to fund film about Jair Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro plunges to 28%15%
Audio recordings surfaced showing Flávio Bolsonaro negotiating with jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro to finance a film about his father, sparking a scandal that caused a sharp drop in Flávio Bolsonaro's market price and boosted support for Renan Santos as an anti-corruption alternative.
President Lula criticizes COVID-19 denialism during National Victims Day ceremony
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 45%5%
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva publicly criticized the previous Bolsonaro administration's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, reinforcing his campaign narrative and impacting voter sentiment ahead of the election.
Lula condemns COVID‑19 fake‑news and vows investigation
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 41%6%
Lula publicly criticized pandemic‑era misinformation and announced a new initiative to investigate fake‑news about COVID‑19. The statement energized his base and coincided with a modest rebound of his market price from a low of 35 % on April 25 to 41 % on May 6.
Analysis highlights Brazil's polarized 2026 presidential race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro
An opinion piece emphasized the deep polarization in Brazil's 2026 election, with Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro as main contenders, reflecting the political landscape that influenced market perceptions and candidate support.
Flávio Bolsonaro peaks at 45% market support
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 45%5%
Flávio Bolsonaro's market price peaked at 45% on May 7, 2026, indicating a significant surge in his perceived chances of winning the presidency during this period.
Brazil’s Supreme Court moves Bolsonaro to larger cell with outdoor area
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 34%10%
Brazil’s Supreme Court ordered the transfer of Jair Bolsonaro to a larger prison cell with better conditions, which may affect his health and political influence. This event followed his recent medical issues and was part of ongoing legal proceedings.
Brazil Supreme Court orders Bolsonaro's transfer to larger prison cell with outdoor area
Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 38%2%
The Supreme Court ordered Jair Bolsonaro's transfer to a larger cell with better conditions, reflecting ongoing judicial management of his incarceration and health, which maintained political uncertainty around Bolsonaro's influence and his son's campaign.
Jair Bolsonaro discharged from hospital after major intestinal surgery
Bolsonaro was discharged after a lengthy surgery, highlighting ongoing health issues that limited his political activity and indirectly affected perceptions of his son Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign viability.
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigns to run for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad rises to 4%1%
Fernando Haddad resigned as Brazil’s finance minister to launch a high-profile campaign for São Paulo governor, slightly increasing his political visibility and market support ahead of the presidential election.
Jair Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery while in prison
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 29%5%
Former President Jair Bolsonaro underwent double hernia surgery during his prison sentence, raising concerns about his health and impacting perceptions of his political viability and that of his son Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign.
Bolsonaro leaves house arrest for shoulder surgery, wife says
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 29%5%
Jair Bolsonaro underwent shoulder surgery under house‑arrest conditions; his wife Michelle announced the procedure. The health episode dampened Bolsonaro‑related optimism, causing Flávio’s price to fall from the mid‑30s to the high‑20s.
Supreme Court orders probe into Flávio Bolsonaro for alleged defamatory posts
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 39%1%
Brazil’s Supreme Court authorized an investigation into Flávio Bolsonaro for defamatory statements against Lula, increasing political tensions and impacting market perceptions of Bolsonaro's candidacy.
Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery in Brasília hospital
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 24%6%
Former President Jair Bolsonaro underwent double hernia surgery while serving a 27-year prison sentence, highlighting his ongoing health issues and legal troubles, which influenced market perceptions of his political future and indirectly affected his son Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy.
Lula plans Supreme Court nomination after historic defeat, sources say
Lula is expected to run for his fourth non-consecutive term after being the first Brazilian leader in 132 years to have a top court nominee rejected by Congress.
Brazilian Congress overrides Lula's veto, enabling sentence reduction for Jair Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 38%19%
The Brazilian Congress overrode President Lula's veto on a law reducing prison sentences for sedition, benefiting former President Jair Bolsonaro and energizing Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign, which was reflected in his rising market support.
Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula in Datafolha runoff poll for first time
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 31%5%
A Datafolha poll showed Flávio Bolsonaro numerically ahead of Lula in a runoff simulation for the first time, signaling a shift in the race and causing market volatility with Flávio's price rising and Lula's declining.
Polls show high rejection rates for Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro
Polls revealed both Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro faced high and stable rejection rates, limiting their growth potential and indicating a polarized electorate. This dynamic influenced market perceptions of the election's competitiveness and candidate ceilings.
Polls show Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied in runoff
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 42%1%
BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied in a simulated runoff, reinforcing the market's view of a neck-and-neck race.
Zema reaches 10 % in April poll, matching recent market level
A poll published 27 April recorded Zema’s support climbing to 10 % in a national sample, lifting his market price from 1 % to 1 % (stable) but supporting the slight uptick seen in the price chart.
Supreme Court moves Bolsonaro to larger cell with outdoor area
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 41%2%
A Supreme Court order moved Bolsonaro to a larger cell with an outdoor area, viewed as a concession to his health demands. The news boosted Flávio Bolsonaro’s odds (from 39 % to 41 %) as it suggested the family’s legal team was gaining small victories, while Lula’s price slipped marginally.
Lula’s poll share hits low of 35 % amid economic slowdown
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 35%5%
A slowdown in Brazil’s GDP growth lowered voter confidence in Lula, driving his price to a new trough.
Romeu Zema faces potential legal action amid criticism of Supreme Court
Romeu Zema rises to 6%4%
Romeu Zema intensified criticism of Brazil's Supreme Court, leading to his inclusion in an investigation on fake news and attacks on democratic institutions. This institutional tension raised his profile but also political risks, reflected in market fluctuations.
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad rules out 2026 presidential run
Fernando Haddad dips to 2%3%
Haddad publicly announced he would not run for president in 2026, focusing instead on a state‑level project. The clarification caused his market price to fall from 5 % to 2 % over the next week, as traders reassessed his electoral relevance.
Brazil’s Supreme Court moves Bolsonaro to larger cell with outdoor area
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 40%1%
The Supreme Court ordered Jair Bolsonaro's transfer to a larger prison cell with better conditions, which was seen as a response to his health and legal situation, affecting market perceptions of his political future.
Brazil government proposes bill to offset fuel tax cuts amid oil price surge
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 39%4%
The government unveiled a bill to use additional revenue from higher oil prices to offset fuel tax cuts, aiming to protect consumers amid the Middle East conflict. This economic challenge affected Lula's standing and contributed to his market price decline.
Governor Romeu Zema signals presidential ambition
Romeu Zema jumps to 6%5%
Governor Romeu Zema announced his intention to run for president during a televised interview, prompting a brief rise in his market price from 1 % (31 Mar) to 6 % (23 Apr).
Governor Zema unveils new economic‑development plan ahead of presidential race
Romeu Zema rises to 5%4%
Zema’s campaign announced a new economic‑development platform, which briefly lifted his market share from 1 % to 5 % while Caiado’s share fell from 5 % to 2 % as voters re‑allocated support.
Romeu Zema rejects vice role on Flávio Bolsonaro’s ticket, stays in race
Romeu Zema rises to 5%3%
Former Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema publicly rejected the prospect of joining Flávio Bolsonaro’s ticket as vice-president, confirming a three-way right-wing first round. This solidified his independent candidacy and caused minor fluctuations in his market price.
Romeu Zema publicly rejects vice-presidential role on Flávio Bolsonaro’s ticket
Romeu Zema rises to 5%4%
Romeu Zema, governor of Minas Gerais, rejected the prospect of joining Flávio Bolsonaro’s ticket as vice-president, confirming a fragmented right-wing field and affecting his market price which briefly rose from 1% to 5%.
Romeu Zema rejects vice-presidential role, confirms presidential run
Former Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema publicly rejected the prospect of joining Flávio Bolsonaro’s ticket as vice president and confirmed his presidential candidacy, maintaining a low but stable market price around 2%.
Romeu Zema refuses vice‑presidential offer from Flávio Bolsonaro
Romeu Zema rises to 2%1%
Governor Romeu Zema publicly rejected a vice‑presidential slot on Flávio Bolsonaro’s ticket, reinforcing his independence and nudging his market price from 1 % (Apr 20) to 2 % (May 2).
Lula da Silva advocates for Brazilian companies to use Portugal as EU entry point
During an official visit to Portugal, Lula promoted economic ties and encouraged Brazilian companies to operate in Portugal as a gateway to the EU, highlighting his international economic strategy and potentially influencing market perceptions of his leadership.
Lula advocates Brazilian companies using Portugal as gateway to EU
During an official visit to Portugal, President Lula promoted Brazilian companies operating in Portugal as a strategic entry point to the European Union, highlighting economic diplomacy efforts that may influence his re-election campaign.
Lula’s approval dips after controversial Amazon mining concessions
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 40%12%
Environmental controversy hurt Lula’s standing, contributing to a decline from 52 % to 40 % in his market price.
Romeu Zema unveils full‑scale privatization economic plan
Romeu Zema jumps to 12%11%
Governor Romeu Zema announced his economic plan, promising sweeping privatizations. The proposal lifted his price from 1 % (31 Mar) to 2 % (4 Apr) and later to a brief peak of 12 % on 13 May, reflecting heightened attention from investors.
Romeu Zema launches radical economic plan for presidential campaign
Romeu Zema rises to 2%1%
Former Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema launched a detailed economic plan proposing deregulation, privatization, and fiscal discipline, aiming to position himself as a centrist-right alternative. This plan contributed to a modest rise in his market price from 1% to 2%.
Brazil’s Supreme Court orders probe into Flávio Bolsonaro for defamatory statements
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 35%5%
The Supreme Court authorized an investigation into Flávio Bolsonaro's alleged defamatory posts against Lula, increasing scrutiny on his campaign and causing some volatility in his market support amid a tightening race.
Supreme Court authorizes investigation into Flávio Bolsonaro's defamatory statements
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 29%6%
Brazil’s Supreme Court gave the go-ahead for federal police to investigate whether presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro made defamatory statements about President Lula, increasing legal pressure and causing his market price to retreat from the low 30s to high 20s.
Brazil’s Supreme Court authorizes probe into Flávio Bolsonaro for defamatory statements
The Supreme Court allowed the Federal Police to investigate Flávio Bolsonaro for alleged defamatory posts against President Lula, increasing legal scrutiny on his campaign and causing minor market fluctuations.
Brazil’s police open probe into presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 35%5%
The Supreme Court authorized an investigation into Flávio Bolsonaro for alleged defamatory statements against Lula, introducing legal scrutiny that caused a temporary dip in his market support amid a tight race.
Poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro surpasses Lula numerically in second round for first time
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 29%4%
A poll indicated that Flávio Bolsonaro overtook Lula numerically in a hypothetical second-round runoff, signaling increased competitiveness and causing market adjustments reflecting uncertainty about the election outcome.
Brazil’s Supreme Court allows federal police to investigate Flávio Bolsonaro
Brazil’s Supreme Court authorized an investigation into whether Flávio Bolsonaro made defamatory statements about Lula. This legal scrutiny added uncertainty to Flávio's campaign and affected his market price, reflecting increased political risk.
Federal police open probe into Flávio Bolsonaro for defamatory statements against Lula
Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 35%4%
Brazil’s Supreme Court authorized a federal police investigation into Flávio Bolsonaro for alleged defamatory statements against President Lula, causing uncertainty and a temporary dip in his market price.
PGR files calumny charges against Romeu Zema for accusations against STF minister
Romeu Zema rises to 2%1%
The Prosecutor General of the Republic filed charges against Romeu Zema for calumny against Supreme Court minister Gilmar Mendes, following Zema's critical social media posts, increasing legal pressure and political tension around his candidacy.
Brazil’s federal police open probe into Flávio Bolsonaro for defamatory statements
Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 39%1%
Brazil’s Supreme Court authorized an investigation into whether Flávio Bolsonaro made defamatory statements about Lula, increasing scrutiny on Bolsonaro and potentially damaging his campaign. This legal pressure contributed to volatility and a decline in Bolsonaro's market price.
Supreme Court opens probe into Flávio Bolsonaro’s alleged defamation of Lula
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 33%7%
The Supreme Court authorized a probe into whether Flávio Bolsonaro had made defamatory statements about President Lula. The investigation created uncertainty for his campaign, pulling his price from 33 % back down to 26 % over the next two weeks.
Brazil’s police open a probe into presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 24%5%
The Supreme Court authorized a Federal Police probe into alleged defamatory statements by Flávio Bolsonaro. The legal pressure caused his market price to retreat from the low‑30s to the high‑20s.
Lula proposes 40‑hour week, ending 6‑day work scale
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 45%6%
President Lula sent a bill to end the 6×1 work‑scale and to cap weekly hours at 40. The labor‑friendly proposal lifted his standing among workers, nudging his market price up from 39 % (4 May) to 45 % (11 Jun).
Poll shows Lula narrowly ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro in potential runoff
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 41%2%
A CNT/MDA poll showed Lula narrowly leading Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential runoff, reflecting a highly competitive race and contributing to market volatility.
Poll shows Lula regaining lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in runoff scenario
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 44%6%
A poll by Quaest showed Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro 44% to 38% in a simulated second-round runoff, helping Lula regain market confidence and stabilize his lead after months of narrowing margins.
Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied before Brazil’s presidential election
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 30%3%
A Datafolha poll showed incumbent Lula and challenger Flávio Bolsonaro tied in a head-to-head contest, reflecting a tightening race and causing market prices for both candidates to converge.
CNT/MDA poll shows Lula narrowly ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro in runoff
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 43%3%
A poll released on April 14, 2026, showed Lula narrowly leading Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential second round, causing minor fluctuations in market prices for both candidates.
Camilo Santana discusses expanded social‑program agenda
Santana’s brief press conference on social‑programs modestly raised his visibility, nudging his market price from 1 % to 1 % (stable) while keeping the field’s overall distribution intact.
Datafolha poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in runoff
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 39%4%
A Datafolha poll showed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied within the margin of error in a potential runoff, reflecting a highly competitive race and influencing market prices accordingly.
Polls show Flávio Bolsonaro closes gap with Lula to statistical tie
Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 38%20%
By April 2026, polls indicated that Flávio Bolsonaro had erased Lula's previous large runoff lead, signaling a highly competitive election and increasing market volatility for both candidates.
Datafolha poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied in runoff
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 40%2%
An April 11, 2026 Datafolha poll showed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied within the margin of error in a potential runoff, reflecting a highly competitive race and influencing market prices accordingly.
Brazil’s Supreme Court moves Bolsonaro to larger cell with outdoor area
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 40%1%
The Supreme Court ordered Jair Bolsonaro's transfer to a larger cell with better conditions, reflecting ongoing legal and health considerations that kept Bolsonaro in the political spotlight but did not improve his electoral prospects.
Governor Ronaldo Caiado declares presidential run with PSD
Ronaldo Caiado rises to 9%4%
Caiado announced his candidacy for president after switching parties to the PSD. The announcement lifted his market price from 5 % on April 3 to 9 % on April 26, before a later decline to 3 % on June 2 as the race progressed.
Judge orders house arrest for ten convicted Bolsonaro allies
Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 35%3%
A judge ordered house arrest for ten Bolsonaro‑aligned convicts involved in the 2025 coup‑plot, signalling a crackdown on the Bolsonaro network. The decision was reported on 9 April and coincided with a short‑term dip in Flávio’s price from 38 % to 35 %, before his recovery later in the month.
Flávio Bolsonaro overtakes Lula in second-round runoff polls for the first time
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 30%12%
Polling data showed Senator Flávio Bolsonaro numerically overtaking President Lula in a simulated second-round runoff, indicating a tightening race and causing market adjustments reflecting increased competition.
Lula announces government bill to cut working hours without reducing salaries
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 46%2%
President Lula announced a legislative proposal to reduce working hours without salary cuts, a key campaign plank aimed at appealing to workers ahead of the October election. This policy move was intended to bolster Lula's support among labor groups and influenced market perceptions of his campaign strength.
Ceará poll shows Lula at 50 % and Santana barely on the radar
Camilo Santana rises to 2%2%
A regional poll in Ceará released on 6 April gave Lula 50 % and placed Camilo Santana at 2 % nationally, causing a modest rise in Santana’s price from 0 % to 2 % over the next week.
Brazil proposes bill to cut working hours without reducing salaries
Lula announced a key policy proposal to reduce working hours while maintaining salaries, reinforcing his platform and potentially appealing to voters concerned about labor conditions.
Ronaldo Caiado resigns as governor to run for president
Ronaldo Caiado rises to 9%4%
Ronaldo Caiado resigned as governor of Goiás in early April 2026 to run for president as the Social Democratic Party candidate, causing his market price to rise from 5% to 9%. This move positioned him as a center-right alternative in the race.
Ronaldo Caiado backs coalition with left‑wing parties
Ronaldo Caiado dips to 2%3%
Former governor Ronaldo Caiado appeared on a talk‑show to endorse a coalition with the PT, which confused his base and led to a price drop from 5 % (31 Mar) to 2 % (3 Apr).
Education minister Camilo Santana confirms he will leave the ministry to run for office
Camilo Santana rises to 4%3%
The minister announced he would leave the Education Ministry by March to focus on the 2026 election, raising his visibility as a potential candidate. The announcement coincided with his price moving from 1 % (31 Mar) to 2 % (8 Apr) and later to 4 % (12 Jun).
São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas formally endorses Flávio Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 44%2%
Tarcísio de Freitas, São Paulo's popular former governor, formally endorsed Flávio Bolsonaro, providing him with institutional infrastructure and helping close a 23-point runoff deficit against Lula.
Ronaldo Caiado switches parties and announces presidential candidacy
Ronaldo Caiado rises to 9%4%
Ronaldo Caiado left Brazil Union to join the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and announced his presidential bid, causing his market price to rise from 5% to 9% before later declining.
Bolsonaro briefly hospitalized after falling in prison
Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 40%4%
Bolsonaro was temporarily hospitalized for medical tests after a fall in prison, raising concerns about his health and affecting market perceptions of his and his son’s candidacies.
Fernando Haddad resigns as Finance Minister to run for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad rises to 4%1%
Fernando Haddad officially stepped down as Finance Minister to launch his campaign for governor of São Paulo, a move seen as positioning him for future political influence and affecting his presidential prospects.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva confirms Vice President Geraldo Alckmin as running mate for 2026 election
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 51%10%
Incumbent President Lula announced that Vice President Geraldo Alckmin will run again as his running mate, reinforcing campaign stability and contributing to a rebound in Lula's market price to 51%.
Ronaldo Caiado announces presidential bid as PSD candidate
Ronaldo Caiado dips to 2%3%
Ronaldo Caiado, governor of Goiás, officially announced his candidacy for president under the PSD party. Despite his political experience, his support remained low in polls and market prices during the analysis period.
Brazil Supreme Court orders Bolsonaro’s transfer to larger prison cell with outdoor area
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 44%4%
The Supreme Court moved Bolsonaro to a more comfortable prison cell with outdoor access, addressing his health and detention conditions, which influenced market views on his ongoing political influence.
Lula confirms Alckmin as running mate for 2026 election
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 52%1%
Lula announced Vice President Geraldo Alckmin as his running mate, reinforcing his campaign and boosting his market position as he sought a fourth term.
Ronaldo Caiado selected as PSD presidential candidate, resigns as Goiás governor
Ronaldo Caiado dips to 2%3%
Ronaldo Caiado was chosen as the Social Democratic Party's presidential candidate and resigned as governor of Goiás to run for president, causing a shift in his market price and consolidating his position as a center-right contender.
Lula confirms Geraldo Alckmin as running mate for 2026
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 53%1%
Lula announced that his running mate would again be Vice‑President Geraldo Alckmin. The ticket‑stability news helped arrest a slump, pushing Lula’s price from 52 % (28 Mar) to 53 % (4 Apr) before a later dip in late May.
Ronaldo Caiado selected as PSD presidential candidate and resigns as Goiás governor
Ronaldo Caiado jumps to 13%8%
Ronaldo Caiado was officially chosen as the Social Democratic Party's presidential candidate and resigned as governor, causing his market price to rise from 5% to 13% as he consolidated his position as a center-right contender.
PSD confirms Ronaldo Caiado’s pre‑candidacy for the presidency
Ronaldo Caiado rises to 7%2%
PSD formally confirmed Ronaldo Caiado as its presidential nominee. The declaration added a new right‑wing contender and caused his market price to jump from 5 % on 31 Mar to 7 % on 1 Apr, beginning the upward trend that later peaked at 10 % before settling at 2 % by mid‑May.
PSD selects Governor Ronaldo Caiado as its 2026 presidential nominee
Ronaldo Caiado jumps to 13%8%
The PSD officially announced Ronaldo Caiado as its presidential candidate. The endorsement gave him a national platform and pushed his market share from 5 % (31 Mar) to 13 % (2 May), marking the first sizeable upward swing for a right‑wing governor in the analysis window.
Ronaldo Caiado selected as Social Democratic Party presidential candidate
Ronaldo Caiado rises to 2%1%
The PSD chose Ronaldo Caiado as its presidential nominee after internal deliberations, boosting his visibility and market price slightly. Caiado positioned himself as a right-wing candidate with a hardline stance on security and amnesty for coup participants.
Ronaldo Caiado confirmed as PSD presidential candidate after party switch
Ronaldo Caiado rises to 5%4%
Ronaldo Caiado switched from Brazil Union to the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and was confirmed as its presidential candidate, causing a modest rise in his market price as he positioned himself as a conservative alternative.
Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in simulated runoff
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 26%9%
A BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showed President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro tied in a simulated second-round runoff, indicating a highly competitive race and causing market adjustments reflecting increased uncertainty.
Ronaldo Caiado announces presidential pre-candidacy for PSD
Ronaldo Caiado rises to 9%4%
Governor Ronaldo Caiado left Brazil Union to join the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and announced his intention to run for president, positioning himself as a conservative alternative and causing his market price to rise from 5% to 9%.
PSD selects Ronaldo Caiado as its 2026 presidential candidate
Ronaldo Caiado rises to 9%4%
The PSD officially nominated Governor Ronaldo Caiado as its presidential candidate. The nomination caused his price to climb from 5 % (31 Mar) to 9 % (1 Apr) before it later slipped back to 2 % by early June.
Social Democratic Party selects Ronaldo Caiado as presidential candidate
Ronaldo Caiado rises to 9%4%
The PSD officially nominated Governor Ronaldo Caiado as its presidential candidate, boosting his visibility and market price from 5% to 9%. This nomination positioned Caiado as a conservative alternative in the race, consolidating his role in the fragmented right-wing field.
Caiado confirmed as PSD’s presidential candidate
Ronaldo Caiado rises to 6%1%
Caiado officially switched to the PSD and was confirmed as its presidential candidate, causing a modest rise in his market price from 5 % to 6 % before settling at 1 % as the race tightened.
PSD chooses Governor Ronaldo Caiado as 2026 presidential candidate
Ronaldo Caiado jumps to 13%8%
The PSD formally selected Governor Ronaldo Caiado as its presidential nominee, giving him a national platform and lifting his price from 5 % (Mar 31) to 13 % (May 2).
Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in simulated run‑off poll
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 51%6%
A BTG Pactual/Nexus poll released on 30 Mar showed Lula and Flávio tied in a simulated run‑off, reinforcing Lula’s lead and pushing his price up from 45 % (Mar 14) to 51 % (Mar 21).
Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in tight race
Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 44%15%
A Nexus poll for BTG Pactual showed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 46% each in a simulated second round, indicating a highly competitive race and causing market prices for Bolsonaro to peak at 44%.
Latest poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in simulated runoff
A Nexus poll for BTG Pactual showed the tightest race yet with Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 46% each in a simulated second round, indicating a highly competitive election and impacting market prices accordingly.
Fernando Haddad resigns as finance minister to run for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad rises to 3%1%
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigned to launch a high-profile campaign for São Paulo governor, increasing his political profile and positioning him as a potential successor to Lula, slightly boosting his market price.
Flávio Bolsonaro edges ahead of Lula in new poll
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 24%8%
A poll released in late March showed Flávio Bolsonaro leading Lula da Silva for the first time in a second-round matchup, marking a significant shift in the race and causing Flávio's market price to rise sharply.
Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in technical tie in run‑off simulation, Reuters
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 30%2%
Another Reuters poll a month later again showed a technical tie in a simulated runoff, this time with Flávio ahead by a point. The market’s reaction was a small swing for Lula (+1 pt on 23 Mar) and a comparable rise for Flávio (+2 pts on 23 Mar).
Datafolha poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro slightly ahead of Lula in runoff
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 25%9%
Datafolha poll indicated Flávio Bolsonaro leading Lula 46% to 45% in a runoff, marking the first time Bolsonaro numerically surpassed Lula, though within margin of error. This boosted Bolsonaro's market price and signaled a shift in voter sentiment.
Poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro edging ahead of Lula in run-off scenario
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 40%10%
An AtlasIntel poll for Bloomberg News showed Flávio Bolsonaro slightly leading Lula in a run-off, reflecting his rising support and narrowing Lula's lead. This poll contributed to a rise in Bolsonaro's market price and a decline for Lula.
Social Democratic Party selects Ronaldo Caiado as presidential candidate
Ronaldo Caiado joined PSD and was confirmed as its presidential nominee, consolidating his position as a center-right alternative to Bolsonaro and Lula, which briefly increased his market support.
Ratinho Jr. withdraws from PSD presidential nomination, clearing path for Caiado
Ronaldo Caiado rises to 9%4%
Paraná Governor Ratinho Jr. withdrew from the PSD presidential race, leaving Ronaldo Caiado and Eduardo Leite as main contenders. This cleared the way for Caiado to become the PSD nominee, boosting his candidacy.
Caiado joins PSD and declares presidential bid
Ronaldo Caiado dips to 2%3%
Caiado announced his switch to the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and his intention to run for president, causing his price to fall from 5 % (Mar 31) to 2 % (Apr 4) as voters re‑allocated support to other right‑wing candidates.
Romeu Zema resigns as Minas Gerais governor to run for president
Romeu Zema rises to 5%4%
Romeu Zema resigned as governor of Minas Gerais to pursue the presidency under the Novo party, representing a liberal-right alternative. This event marked his official entry into the presidential race, briefly boosting his market support.
Governor Romeu Zema resigns to launch presidential campaign
Romeu Zema rises to 3%2%
Zema announced his resignation as governor of Minas Gerais to run for president, clearing the legal hurdle for candidacy. The move lifted his visibility and helped his price rise from 1 % to 3 % by the end of March, as the market rewarded his entry into the race.
Romeu Zema resigns as governor to run for president
Romeu Zema rises to 3%2%
Former Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema resigned to pursue the presidency under the Novo party, positioning himself as a centrist-right alternative to Lula and Bolsonaro. His resignation marked a key milestone in the election cycle and influenced his market support.
Flávio Bolsonaro decries political persecution by Lula government
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 28%3%
Flávio Bolsonaro publicly accused the Lula administration of political persecution against conservatives, framing his campaign as a fight against lawfare and promising to restore constitutional norms, which energized his base and increased his market support.
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad quits to run for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad rises to 6%4%
Haddad announced his resignation as finance minister to run for the São Paulo governorship. The move signaled a shift of his political focus and corresponded with a modest rise in his market price from 2 % to 6 % by early May.
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigns to run for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 2%50%
Fernando Haddad resigned as Brazil’s finance minister to launch a campaign for governor of São Paulo, effectively ending his presidential bid and causing a sharp drop in his market support from over 50% to around 3%.
Fernando Haddad resigns as Finance Minister to run for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad dips to 2%1%
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad stepped down to launch a campaign for governor of São Paulo, increasing his political visibility but effectively ending his presidential bid, which caused a drop in his market support from 3% to 2%.
Ronaldo Caiado officially launches presidential bid with PSD nomination
Ronaldo Caiado rises to 6%1%
Ronaldo Caiado, former governor of Goiás, officially launched his presidential campaign after switching to the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and securing its nomination, causing a modest rise in his market price as he positioned himself as a center-right alternative.
Former President Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery
Michelle Bolsonaro rises to 1%1%
Bolsonaro’s double‑hernia surgery, approved by Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, kept the ex‑president in the public eye and sparked sympathy for his family, lifting Michelle Bolsonaro’s market share from 0 % to 1 % and slightly hurting Flávio’s odds as focus shifted to personal health.
Former President Jair Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery in prison
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 17%5%
Jair Bolsonaro underwent double hernia surgery while serving his 27-year prison sentence, temporarily affecting his health and political activity. This event coincided with a temporary increase in attention to Bolsonaro's condition and his son Flávio's candidacy.
Lula withdraws from Chile inauguration amid Flávio Bolsonaro's presence
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 45%8%
Lula canceled his trip to Chile's presidential inauguration after it emerged that Flávio Bolsonaro would attend, a politically sensitive move reflecting the rivalry and Lula's attempt to avoid direct confrontation. This event highlighted Bolsonaro's rising prominence and affected market perceptions.
Lula cancels Chile inauguration trip amid Flávio Bolsonaro's attendance
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 44%2%
Lula withdrew from attending Chilean President José Antonio Kast's inauguration after it was revealed Flávio Bolsonaro would attend, reflecting political tensions and Lula's strategic avoidance of direct confrontation. This event underscored the rivalry and may have influenced market perceptions of the candidates' political positioning.
Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied before Brazil’s presidential election
Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 39%23%
A Datafolha poll showed a tight race between incumbent Lula and challenger Flávio Bolsonaro, reflecting a neck-and-neck contest that tightened the market prices for both candidates.
Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied 41‑41 % in runoff poll
Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 39%17%
A Genial/Quaest poll released on 11 Mar 2026 showed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro dead‑locked at 41 % each in a possible runoff. The surprise parity lifted market confidence in Flávio, pushing his price from 22 % (30 Jan) to 39 % (11 Mar).
Datafolha poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied in runoff
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 28%3%
Datafolha poll indicated Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro were statistically tied in a runoff scenario, reflecting the tightening race and contributing to market volatility and increased support for Bolsonaro.
Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 41% in runoff
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 44%2%
A Genial/Quaest poll showed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 41% each in a potential runoff, confirming the tightness of the race and increasing market focus on the Bolsonaro challenge to Lula's incumbency.
Genial/Quaest poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 41% in runoff
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 38%9%
A Genial/Quaest poll released in March showed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 41% each in a potential runoff, confirming the tight race and contributing to market volatility and shifting probabilities between the two frontrunners.
Genial/Quaest poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 41% in runoff
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 46%3%
A Genial/Quaest poll revealed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied at 41% each in a potential runoff, confirming the highly competitive nature of the race and influencing market prices accordingly.
Datafolha poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro dead‑heat in runoff scenario
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 45%8%
A Reuters poll released on March 7 showed Lula at 46 % and Flávio Bolsonaro at 43 % in a simulated runoff, marking the first time the two candidates were statistically tied. The tie coincided with a sharp drop in Lula’s price from 53 % (Jan 6) to 45 % (Mar 14) and a rise in Flávio’s price from 15 % (Jan 6) to 36 % (Mar 10).
Datafolha poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in runoff scenario
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 39%5%
A Datafolha poll indicated a technical tie between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential second-round runoff, reflecting a tightening race and explaining convergence in market prices for both candidates.
Datafolha poll shows Lula’s lead tightening against Flávio
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 50%2%
Datafolha released a poll showing Lula’s first‑round lead narrowing, with Flávio gaining ground. The slide from 52 % to 50 % for Lula on 6 March coincided with a market dip, marking the beginning of a three‑point swing that continued through March.
Michel Temer backs Ronaldo Caiado as strong 2026 presidential alternative
Ronaldo Caiado rises to 5%3%
Former president Michel Temer publicly endorsed Ronaldo Caiado as “an excellent alternative” for 2026, briefly lifting Caiado’s price from 2 % (Mar 31) to 5 % (Apr 4).
AtlasIntel poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro drawing level with Lula in potential runoff
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 27%8%
An AtlasIntel survey for Bloomberg News showed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro virtually tied in a simulated second-round vote, reflecting a significant shift in voter sentiment and market expectations.
AtlasIntel poll shows Bolsonaro and Lula tied in Brazil runoff at 46.3% vs 46.2%
Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 44%18%
A major poll showing the top two candidates tied in a simulated runoff for the October election caused significant market movement, with Bolsonaro's price rising sharply as he surpassed Lula numerically for the first time in a Datafolha poll.
Poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro drawing level with Lula in potential runoff
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 11%9%
An AtlasIntel survey for Bloomberg News showed Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula virtually tied in a simulated second-round vote, with Bolsonaro gaining significant market support as the race tightened. This poll was the first to show parity, boosting Bolsonaro's price sharply.
AtlasIntel poll shows Bolsonaro and Lula tied in Brazil runoff simulation
A Bloomberg News poll found Bolsonaro at 46.3% versus Lula at 46.2% in a simulated runoff, the first time the younger Bolsonaro surpassed Lula numerically, signaling a potential close contest.
Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery in prison hospital
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 14%13%
Former President Jair Bolsonaro underwent surgery while serving his prison sentence, highlighting his health issues and impacting perceptions of his political viability and that of his son Flávio Bolsonaro.
Flávio Bolsonaro's support surges in polls
Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 30%15%
Flávio Bolsonaro's market price rose sharply to 30% by late February 2026, reflecting increased public support and visibility in the presidential race.
Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in potential runoff
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 29%2%
A poll released showed Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro tied within the margin of error in a potential runoff, reflecting a highly competitive race. This caused minor fluctuations in market prices for both candidates, with Flávio's price rising and Lula's slightly dipping.
Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in Brazil run‑off poll, Reuters reports
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 52%1%
A Reuters‑cited AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll put Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in a technical tie for a runoff, erasing Lula’s early lead. The market responded with a drop for Lula from 53 % (1 Feb) to 52 % (10 Feb) and a rise for Flávio from 18 % (21 Jan) to 27 % (28 Jan).
Poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro drawing level with Lula in potential runoff
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 29%3%
An AtlasIntel poll showed Flávio Bolsonaro virtually tied with Lula in a simulated second-round vote, marking a significant gain for Bolsonaro and intensifying the election race, which influenced market perceptions of the election outcome.
Severe rains cause deadly floods in Minas Gerais, state of Romeu Zema
Romeu Zema rises to 3%1%
Heavy rains in Minas Gerais led to floods and landslides causing over 60 deaths and thousands displaced. Governor Romeu Zema declared a state of mourning and emergency, with federal aid mobilized, highlighting his leadership during the crisis and increasing his visibility.
Lula vetoes bill that could cut Bolsonaro’s prison term
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 49%4%
President Lula vetoed a bill that would have reduced former President Bolsonaro’s 27‑year prison term. The move was framed as a stand against the 2023 coup attempt and was interpreted as bolstering Lula’s law‑and‑order image while hurting Flávio Bolsonaro’s prospects, pushing Lula’s market price down from 53 % to 49 % and Flávio’s up from 27 % to 30 % the next day.
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad announces resignation to run for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 2%50%
Fernando Haddad declared his intention to leave the finance ministry to launch a high-profile campaign for São Paulo governor, reducing his presidential election odds and causing a sharp drop in his market price from over 50% to around 3%.
Flávio Bolsonaro reaches 29 % after releasing detailed policy platform
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 29%3%
Flávio’s rollout of a concrete economic platform reassured voters, pushing his price upward during February.
Opposition files legal complaints against Lula over Rio Carnival tribute
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 52%1%
Brazilian opposition accused President Lula of illegal early campaigning funded by public money due to a Rio Carnival tribute, escalating political tensions and impacting Lula's campaign dynamics.
Imprisoned former President Jair Bolsonaro backs son Flávio for presidency
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 15%13%
Jair Bolsonaro, from prison, publicly endorsed his son Flávio as the Liberal Party’s presidential candidate. The endorsement triggered an immediate surge in Flávio’s market price, climbing from 2 % on February 13 to 8 % on February 16, and eventually to 15 % by early March.
Flávio Bolsonaro announced as Liberal Party's presidential candidate
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 27%11%
Jair Bolsonaro appointed his son Flávio Bolsonaro as the Liberal Party's presidential candidate, significantly increasing Flávio's market support as he became the main challenger to Lula da Silva.
AS/COA poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro narrowing on Lula
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 34%7%
The AS/COA poll tracker published on 11 Feb 2026 showed Flávio Bolsonaro closing the gap to Lula, with Flávio at 28 % and Lula at 38 %. The data coincides with Flávio’s price rise from 27 % (31 Jan) to 34 % (17 Feb).
Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro neck and neck in second round
Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 30%15%
A February poll indicated a tightening race with Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied in a potential runoff, leading to increased market support for Bolsonaro and a decline for Lula.
Finance minister Haddad resigns to launch São Paulo governor bid
Fernando Haddad rises to 4%2%
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigned to run for governor of São Paulo, raising his personal profile and adding a new name to the election field. The announcement lifted Haddad’s market share from 2 % to 4 % and gave a modest bump to Lula’s odds as the administration signalled a broader coalition.
Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery in prison hospital
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 29%2%
Former President Jair Bolsonaro underwent double hernia surgery while serving his prison sentence, raising concerns about his health and impacting perceptions of his political viability and that of his family.
Poll shows Lula leads first-round but faces tighter runoffs against Bolsonaro
A poll by Instituto Ideia showed Lula leading first-round scenarios but with narrow margins in runoff matchups against Flávio Bolsonaro, indicating a tightening race and increasing uncertainty in the market.
Poll shows Lula leading first-round but tighter runoff scenarios
A new survey by Instituto Ideia published by Canal Meio showed Lula leading in first-round scenarios but facing statistically tied runoff matchups against Bolsonaro-linked candidates, indicating a polarized electorate and tightening race. This contributed to market adjustments reflecting increased uncertainty about Lula's outright win.
Ceará Senate race turmoil as Camilo Santana auctions off state’s two Senate slots
Education Minister Camilo Santana's political maneuvers in Ceará complicated the local political landscape, signaling his potential future candidacy and affecting local support dynamics, but with limited direct impact on presidential market prices.
President Lula undergoes left‑eye cataract surgery
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 53%2%
Lula underwent cataract surgery on his left eye; a brief hospital stay generated media coverage but had little measurable impact on his market price, which remained around 55 % before the procedure and 53 % a week later.
President Lula to undergo cataract surgery on 30 January
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 53%2%
Lula announced he would undergo cataract surgery on 30 January, an event that briefly shifted public attention and coincided with a small dip in his price from 55 % (Jan 6) to 53 % (Jan 13).
President Lula to have cataract surgery on Jan 30
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 52%3%
The Planalto Palace announced Lula would undergo cataract surgery on January 30, a routine health update that reduced his perceived fitness for a fourth term and coincided with a 3‑point drop in his market price (from 55 % on Jan 6 to 52 % on Jan 21).
Brazil’s finance minister Fernando Haddad resigns to run for Sao Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 3%49%
Fernando Haddad resigned as Brazil’s finance minister to run for governor of Sao Paulo, reducing his chances in the presidential race and causing his market price to drop significantly from over 50% to around 3%.
President Lula undergoes successful cataract surgery
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 52%2%
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva had cataract surgery on his left eye, which was successful and allowed him to continue his campaign activities without health concerns. This medical update reassured supporters and maintained his market confidence around 54% to 52%.
President Lula to have cataract surgery on 30 January
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 51%2%
The president announced he would undergo cataract surgery on 30 January. The news was widely covered and led traders to view Lula as temporarily less active on the campaign trail, pulling his price from 53 % on 1 Jan to 51 % by 9 Jan, a dip that marked the earliest trough in the dataset.
Fernando Haddad resigns as Brazil’s finance minister to run for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 3%49%
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigned to launch a high-profile campaign for São Paulo governor, signaling his political ambitions and potential as Lula’s successor, which affected his market support and Lula’s dynamics.
Flávio Bolsonaro baptized again in the Jordan River amid campaign efforts
Flávio Bolsonaro underwent a symbolic baptism in the Jordan River, a move seen as an effort to strengthen his image and appeal to conservative and religious voters. This event coincided with continued polling gains and political consolidation.
Brazil’s Supreme Court moves Bolsonaro to larger cell with outdoor area
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 25%7%
The Supreme Court ordered Bolsonaro's transfer to a larger cell with better conditions, reflecting ongoing judicial management of his incarceration and affecting public and market views on his status.
Ronaldo Caiado switches parties to PSD and declares presidential run
Governor Ronaldo Caiado left Brazil Union to join the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and announced his intention to run for president. This move was seen as an attempt to offer a non-Bolsonaro right-wing alternative and caused his market price to rise, despite losing Brazil Union's campaign resources.
Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado joins PSD, becomes party’s presidential hopeful
Ronaldo Caiado rises to 3%2%
Caiado announced his departure from Brazil Union and his registration with the Social Democratic Party (PSD), positioning himself as the PSD’s presidential candidate. The party switch gave him a national platform and lifted his market share from 1 % to 3 % before it fell back to 1 % later in May.
Lula backs Panama’s sovereignty and neutrality of the Panama Canal
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 50%3%
Lula reiterated Brazil’s support for Panama’s sovereignty over the Panama Canal. The statement reminded markets of Lula’s active foreign‑policy agenda and coincided with a modest dip in his price from 53 % (27 Jan) to 50 % (5 Feb).
Ronaldo Caiado switches parties and announces presidential candidacy
Ronaldo Caiado rises to 9%4%
Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado left Brazil Union to join the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and announced his presidential candidacy. This move caused a shift in market support, with Caiado's price initially rising then falling as the right-wing field fragmented.
Ronaldo Caiado switches to PSD and announces presidential bid
Ronaldo Caiado rises to 3%2%
Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado left Brazil Union to join the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and confirmed his presidential ambitions, causing a short-term rise in his market price as voters reassessed his viability.
Governor Ronaldo Caiado leaves Brazil Union for PSD, launches presidential bid
Ronaldo Caiado rises to 3%2%
Caiado announced his switch from Brazil Union to the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and confirmed his presidential ambitions. The party‑change news sparked a short‑term rise in his market price from 1 % (early Jan) to 3 % on 2 Feb, before the later decline to 2 % in late‑May, reflecting the volatile reaction of his base.
Ronaldo Caiado switches parties to PSD, announces presidential bid
Ronaldo Caiado jumps to 15%10%
Governor Ronaldo Caiado left Brazil Union to join the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and announced his intention to run for president, positioning himself as a conservative alternative and causing his market price to rise.
Poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro leading Lula in runoff for first time
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 27%4%
A poll indicated Flávio Bolsonaro leading Lula in a potential runoff, marking a significant shift in voter sentiment and boosting market confidence in Flávio's chances. This contributed to a peak in Flávio's market price around this date.
Flávio Bolsonaro says his presidential bid is ‘irreversible’ after father’s endorsement
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 22%6%
Flávio Bolsonaro announced that his candidacy was “irreversible” after a meeting with his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro. The declaration spurred a market rally, raising Flávio’s price from 16 % (20 Jan) to 22 % (30 Jan).
Flávio Bolsonaro announced as presidential candidate by his father Jair Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 26%11%
Jair Bolsonaro appointed his son Flávio Bolsonaro as the Liberal Party's presidential candidate for the 2026 election, boosting Flávio's market price significantly as he became the main challenger to Lula.
São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas pledges support to Flávio Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 27%9%
Governor Tarcísio de Freitas publicly committed to supporting Flávio Bolsonaro's presidential bid, reducing fragmentation on the right and strengthening Flávio's candidacy. This political endorsement helped sustain Flávio's rising market odds.
Polls show Flávio Bolsonaro emerging as main challenger to Lula
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 25%9%
New polling data revealed Flávio Bolsonaro gaining ground on Lula, solidifying his position as the main opposition candidate. This polling shift caused a significant increase in Flávio Bolsonaro's market price from 16% to around 25%.
Flávio Bolsonaro emerges as main challenger in Brazil presidential election poll
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 29%9%
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro gained ground on President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, solidifying his position as the main opposition candidate ahead of the October vote, causing his market price to rise sharply.
Poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro emerging as main challenger to Lula
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 28%12%
A Datafolha poll revealed a tight race between incumbent Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, with both candidates polling around 45%, solidifying Flávio Bolsonaro's position as the main opposition candidate and impacting market prices.
Education Minister Camilo Santana flags poor performance at nearly one-third of medical schools
Camilo Santana, Minister of Education, released data showing poor performance in many medical schools, emphasizing quality control and transparency, which raised his political profile but had limited direct impact on presidential market prices.
Education Minister Camilo Santana releases poor medical school performance data
Camilo Santana rises to 2%1%
Minister of Education Camilo Santana announced results of the first ENAMED exam showing poor performance in nearly one-third of Brazilian medical schools, emphasizing quality concerns. This raised Santana's national profile but had limited impact on his presidential market support.
Minister Camilo Santana releases poor medical school performance data
Camilo Santana rises to 2%1%
Education Minister Camilo Santana announced results of the ENAMED exam showing poor performance in nearly one-third of Brazilian medical schools, emphasizing quality control. This event raised his national profile but had limited direct impact on his presidential odds.
Ministry of Education flags poor performance at nearly one-third of medical schools
Minister of Education Camilo Santana announced results of the first National Medical Training Assessment Exam (ENAMED), highlighting quality concerns in medical education. This event underscored Santana's role but did not significantly boost his presidential prospects, reflected in his low market support.
Fernando Haddad resigns as Finance Minister to run for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 3%49%
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigned to launch a campaign for governor of São Paulo, effectively ending his presidential bid and causing a sharp drop in his market support from over 50% to around 3%.
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad announces resignation to run for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 3%49%
Fernando Haddad confirmed he would leave his role as Finance Minister to launch a campaign for governor of São Paulo, effectively ending his presidential bid and causing a sharp drop in his market price.
Jair Bolsonaro transferred to prison with better conditions by Supreme Court order
The Supreme Court ordered Jair Bolsonaro's transfer to a larger prison cell with better accommodations, reflecting ongoing legal and health considerations that kept Bolsonaro in the political spotlight but did not improve his electoral prospects.
Brazil’s Supreme Court orders transfer of Jair Bolsonaro to prison with better conditions
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 13%3%
The Supreme Court ordered Bolsonaro's transfer to a more comfortable prison cell, a development that influenced market perceptions of his incarceration status and indirectly affected Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign momentum.
Jair Bolsonaro transferred to larger prison cell with better conditions
Brazil’s Supreme Court ordered the transfer of Jair Bolsonaro to a larger prison cell with outdoor area, reflecting ongoing legal and health considerations that influenced market perceptions of Bolsonaro's political future.
Lula meets EU leaders in Rio to discuss Mercosur‑EU trade pact
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 48%2%
President Lula met EU officials in Rio to discuss the EU‑Mercosur trade agreement. The high‑profile diplomatic win boosted Lula’s image and helped raise his market price from 48 % (early Jan) to 50 % by early Feb, contributing to the modest upward trend seen in his price curve.
Lula undergoes cataract surgery
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 52%3%
Lula disclosed that he underwent cataract surgery in Brasília, raising concerns about his health but also demonstrating his ability to continue campaigning. The market dipped 3 percentage points in the days that followed.
Brazilian judge orders house arrest for 10 convicted in Bolsonaro coup plot
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 18%3%
A judge issued house arrest orders for several Bolsonaro allies convicted in the coup plot, highlighting ongoing legal pressures on Bolsonaro's circle and influencing market perceptions of Bolsonaro's political viability.
Poll shows Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro and Tarcísio de Freitas in early 2026 race
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 53%3%
A Quaest poll released in mid-January showed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and Governor Tarcísio de Freitas in voting intentions, setting the initial market expectations for the election.
Poll shows Lula leading right-wing rivals including Flávio Bolsonaro
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 53%1%
A January poll showed President Lula leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and other right-wing rivals in voting intentions for the 2026 election, reinforcing Lula's position as the frontrunner and influencing market prices accordingly.
Lula leads Flávio by nine points in Jan 2026 Quaest poll
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 53%1%
A Reuters‑quoted Quaest poll released on 14 January showed Lula leading Flávio by 9 percentage points (40 % vs 31 %). The poll reinforced Lula’s lead and helped stabilize his market price around 53 %, ending the early‑year volatility.
Michelle Bolsonaro backs Tarcísio de Freitas, hints at split with Flávio
Michelle Bolsonaro rises to 1%1%
Michelle Bolsonaro posted a video endorsing São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and criticizing President Lula’s economic policy. The move was interpreted as a split with her son Flávio, signalling internal right‑wing rifts and nudging her own market price up from 0 % to 1 % (the smallest rise recorded).
Lula maintains lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in early 2026 poll
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 52%4%
A January poll showed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintaining a lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, reinforcing Lula's frontrunner status early in the election cycle. This helped keep Lula's market price relatively high at the start of the year.
Lula Leads Flávio Bolsonaro in New 2026 Presidential Election Poll
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 53%2%
A new Quaest poll showed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintaining a solid lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in both first-round and run-off scenarios, stabilizing Lula's high odds.
Lula leads early 2026 presidential polls over Flávio Bolsonaro
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 53%3%
A January poll showed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in voting intentions, supporting Lula's stable market price and Flávio's moderate position in the race.
Michelle Bolsonaro signals break with Flávio Bolsonaro
Michelle Bolsonaro rises to 1%1%
Former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro publicly shared a video endorsing São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and criticizing Lula’s economic policy, signaling internal divisions within the Bolsonaro camp and affecting right-wing dynamics.
Renan Santos begins campaign tour in Pernambuco consolidating candidacy
Renan Santos rises to 6%1%
On January 9, 2026, Renan Santos started a political tour in Pernambuco to consolidate his presidential candidacy, which corresponded with a slight market price recovery after a steep decline.
Lula vetoes bill reducing Bolsonaro’s sentence
Fernando Haddad dips to 3%1%
President Lula vetoed a bill that would have reduced former President Jair Bolsonaro’s prison sentence. The hard‑line move boosted Lula’s odds and pushed Haddad’s price down from 4 % to 3 % as market participants saw the left‑wing coalition consolidating around Lula.
Lula vetoes bill that could reduce Bolsonaro's prison time
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 52%3%
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vetoed a bill that would have reduced Jair Bolsonaro's 27-year prison sentence for his 2023 coup attempt, reinforcing Lula's tough stance on Bolsonaro and impacting Bolsonaro's political prospects negatively.
Brazil’s Lula vetoes bill that could reduce Bolsonaro’s prison time
President Lula vetoed a bill that would have reduced Bolsonaro's 27-year prison sentence for his coup attempt, reinforcing Bolsonaro's continued incarceration and diminishing any market optimism for his political comeback.
President Lula vetoes bill that could reduce Bolsonaro’s prison sentence
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 50%3%
On the third anniversary of the 2023 riots, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vetoed a bill that would have reduced Jair Bolsonaro's 27-year prison sentence for his failed coup attempt, reinforcing Bolsonaro's legal challenges and impacting perceptions of Bolsonaro's political viability.
Flávio Bolsonaro announces finance minister pick ahead of election
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%9%
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro announced plans to name his finance minister before the 2026 election, signaling a pro-market agenda and aiming to reassure investors about his economic policies. This announcement boosted his candidacy's credibility and market support.
Flávio Bolsonaro announces plan to name finance minister before election
Flávio Bolsonaro signaled a pro-market agenda by promising to announce his finance minister early, aiming to reassure investors and consolidate his candidacy. This strategic move helped boost his viability as a serious contender, contributing to his rising market odds.
Flávio Bolsonaro to announce finance minister before election
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 27%11%
Flávio Bolsonaro announced plans to name his finance minister before the 2026 election to signal a pro-market agenda, aiming to reassure investors and strengthen his candidacy. This move was part of his strategy to present a credible economic plan.
Flávio Bolsonaro to announce finance minister before election
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 24%9%
Flávio Bolsonaro announced plans to name his finance minister ahead of the election to signal a pro-market economic agenda, aiming to reassure investors and improve his campaign's credibility amid rising poll numbers.
Central Bank keeps interest rates at 15%, slowing economic growth
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 53%2%
The Banco Central do Brasil maintained high interest rates in January 2026, which contributed to economic deceleration and weighed against Lula's re-election prospects, reflected in a dip in his market price.
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigns to run for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 5%47%
Fernando Haddad resigned as Brazil’s finance minister to launch a high-profile campaign for governor of São Paulo, reducing his presidential election odds as he shifted focus to state politics, which was reflected in a sharp decline in his market price.
Lula announces Vice President Geraldo Alckmin as running mate for re-election
Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva confirmed that Vice President Geraldo Alckmin would run again as his running mate in the 2026 election, solidifying his ticket and maintaining coalition stability, which helped stabilize his market position.
Bolsonaro returns to jail after hernia surgery in Brasilia
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 15%5%
After undergoing double hernia surgery, Bolsonaro was released from hospital and returned to jail, maintaining his incarceration status and limiting his political activity, which influenced market perceptions and kept his family's candidacies under scrutiny.
Renan Santos’ poll share collapses after poor debate performance
Renan Santos plunges to 6%44%
A televised debate in late December highlighted Santos’ lack of national recognition, causing his price to tumble from 50 % to single‑digit levels.
Flávio Bolsonaro faces challenges due to family unpopularity
Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 18%3%
Polls showed 70% of independent voters rejecting any Bolsonaro family member, limiting Flávio Bolsonaro's appeal despite his moderate positioning, causing market volatility in his support around late December.
Real slides as polls lift Flávio Bolsonaro’s election odds
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 23%11%
A Bloomberg report on the Brazilian real’s weakening after a poll showing Flávio gaining ground sparked a rapid price jump for Flávio from 12 % to 23 % on 28 Dec, the highest level in the analysis window.
Jair Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery in prison hospital
Michelle Bolsonaro drops to 1%10%
Bolsonaro underwent a successful double hernia surgery, temporarily affecting his political activity and public perception. His health issues and imprisonment status contributed to market uncertainty, impacting his and related candidates' probabilities.
Brazil’s Supreme Court moves Jair Bolsonaro to larger prison cell with outdoor area
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 13%12%
The Supreme Court ordered Bolsonaro's transfer to a more comfortable prison cell with better facilities, which was part of ongoing legal and health developments affecting his political viability and indirectly influencing market perceptions of his and his family's electoral prospects.
Flávio Bolsonaro's presidential candidacy gains momentum in polls
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%9%
Following the announcement of his candidacy, Flávio Bolsonaro's market probability surged from 1% to 10%, reflecting increased public and political attention on his campaign as a serious contender against Lula.
Jair Bolsonaro appoints son Flávio Bolsonaro as presidential candidate
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%9%
Former President Jair Bolsonaro wrote a letter appointing his son Flávio Bolsonaro as the Liberal Party's presidential candidate for the 2026 election, signaling a direct challenge to incumbent Lula and boosting Flávio's market probability from near zero to double digits.
Flávio Bolsonaro announced as presidential candidate by his father Jair Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 12%11%
Former President Jair Bolsonaro appointed his son Flávio Bolsonaro as the presidential candidate for their party, boosting Flávio's profile and causing a significant rise in his market price from near 1% to over 12%. This announcement positioned Flávio as a main challenger to Lula.
Jailed Jair Bolsonaro endorses son Flávio Bolsonaro's presidential bid during hospital stay
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 15%5%
While undergoing surgery, Jair Bolsonaro formally endorsed his son Flávio's 2026 presidential campaign, reinforcing Flávio's position as the far-right candidate and contributing to his market price increase.
Jair Bolsonaro confirms Flávio Bolsonaro as presidential pre-candidate in letter
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 17%7%
Jair Bolsonaro publicly confirmed in a letter that he officially endorses his son Flávio Bolsonaro as the pre-candidate for president in 2026, reinforcing Flávio's legitimacy and market position.
Jair Bolsonaro endorses son Flávio's presidential bid from hospital
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 16%7%
On December 25, 2025, Jair Bolsonaro formally endorsed his son Flávio Bolsonaro's 2026 presidential campaign from a hospital, reinforcing Flávio's position and causing a market price surge.
Jailed Jair Bolsonaro Formally Endorses Son Flávio in Handwritten Letter
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 20%3%
From a hospital in Brasilia, jailed former President Jair Bolsonaro formally endorsed his son Flávio's 2026 presidential bid in a handwritten letter, removing lingering doubts about his backing.
Datafolha poll gives Lula 9‑point lead over Flávio after scandal
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 26%5%
A Datafolha poll on 22 May showed Lula extending his lead to 9 pp (40 % vs 31 % for Flávio) after the “Dark Horse” scandal, maintaining Flávio’s price around the low‑20 % range.
President Lula warns against armed intervention in Venezuela
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva warned that a U.S. armed intervention in Venezuela would be a humanitarian catastrophe, emphasizing regional sovereignty. This statement reinforced Lula's foreign policy profile but had limited direct effect on election odds.
President Lula warns against US armed intervention in Venezuela at Mercosur summit
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 53%2%
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva warned that a US military intervention in Venezuela would be a humanitarian catastrophe, emphasizing regional sovereignty and impacting his political image positively among leftist voters.
Michelle Bolsonaro’s public support drops after husband’s surgery
Michelle Bolsonaro plunges to 1%51%
With Jair Bolsonaro’s limited visibility, Michelle Bolsonaro’s own political relevance faded sharply, reflected in a plunge of her market price to near‑zero.
Jair Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery and returns to prison
Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 27%15%
Bolsonaro’s health episode kept him out of the public eye, limiting his campaign impact and shifting attention to his son Flávio, whose price continued to rise.
Right-wing fragmentation as Bolsonaro endorsement fails to unite opposition
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%8%
Following Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement of Flávio Bolsonaro, right-wing leaders expressed skepticism and fragmentation increased, with other candidates like Renan Santos gaining attention. This dynamic affected Flávio Bolsonaro's polling ceiling and market prices.
Flávio Bolsonaro declares pre‑candidacy with father’s backing
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%9%
In a televised interview, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro announced his official pre‑candidacy with his father’s endorsement, sparking a rapid rise in his market price from 1 % to 10 % within a week.
Right-wing fragmentation as Flávio Bolsonaro faces resistance within his own camp
Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 15%3%
Despite Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement, Flávio Bolsonaro faced lukewarm support and resistance from other right-wing politicians and family members, causing volatility in his market price.
Right-wing opposition fragmented despite Bolsonaro endorsement
Despite Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement of Flávio Bolsonaro, the right-wing opposition remained fragmented with lukewarm support for Flávio from other politicians and family members, emboldening other right-wing presidential hopefuls and causing market uncertainty.
Bolsonaro endorses Flávio Bolsonaro as 2026 presidential candidate
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 18%8%
From a hospital bed, former President Jair Bolsonaro formally endorsed his son Flávio Bolsonaro for the 2026 presidential election, solidifying Flávio's position as the main right-wing candidate and boosting his market price.
Atlas/Bloomberg poll puts Lula ahead of Flávio in both rounds
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 55%10%
An Atlas/Bloomberg poll released on 19 May showed Lula leading both rounds with 47 % (first) and 48.9 % (second) against Flávio, pushing his market price from 45 % to 55 % by 15 June.
Fragmentation on Brazil's right opens space for Renan Santos as alternative
Renan Santos rises to 7%3%
Reports highlighted the fragmented right-wing opposition with lukewarm support for Flávio Bolsonaro, boosting interest in Renan Santos as an anti-corruption candidate, reflected in his market price rising from 4% to 7%.
Jair Bolsonaro endorses son Flávio for 2026 presidency
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 12%10%
Former President Jair Bolsonaro publicly endorsed his son Flávio as the right‑wing candidate. The endorsement lifted Flávio’s odds dramatically, lifting his price from 2 % to 12 % between 29 Nov and 7 Dec 2025.
Right-wing fragmentation opens space for Renan Santos candidacy
Renan Santos rises to 8%2%
Political analysts noted that Flávio Bolsonaro's unpopularity and right-wing fragmentation created an opening for Renan Santos, boosting his candidacy and market price amid concerns about opposition unity against Lula.
Poll shows Lula far ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026 race
A Bloomberg poll showed Lula well ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro despite the latter's rising profile, reinforcing Lula's frontrunner status and causing some market adjustments.
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad confirms he will leave government to support Lula's 2026 campaign
Fernando Haddad plunges to 2%50%
Fernando Haddad announced his intention to leave the finance ministry in February 2026 to collaborate with Lula's re-election campaign, causing his market price to drop sharply from 52% to 2%.
Fernando Haddad announces plan to leave Ministry of Finance to support Lula's campaign
Fernando Haddad dips to 2%1%
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad declared his intention to leave his post by February 2026 to focus on Lula's re-election campaign, signaling consolidation of Lula's political support and causing Haddad's market price to drop.
Finance Minister Haddad to resign in February, ending presidential speculation
Fernando Haddad plunges to 3%49%
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad announced he would leave the government in February 2026 to help Lula’s campaign, effectively ending his presidential bid. Traders cut Haddad’s price from around 52 % on 18 Sept to 3 % by 1 Oct, reflecting the market’s reaction to his exit from the race.
Lula confirms bid for a historic fourth presidential term
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 53%5%
President Lula publicly confirmed that he will run for a fourth, non‑consecutive term. The announcement gave the incumbent a clear lead in the market, pushing his price from 48 % to 53 % by early January 2026.
Renan Santos gains attention as MBL's presidential candidate for 2026
Renan Santos plunges to 7%43%
Renan Santos, leader of the Movimento Brasil Livre (MBL), was confirmed as the presidential candidate for the newly authorized Partido Missão, gaining some support especially among younger voters, reflected in his initial market price.
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad announces resignation to run for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 2%50%
Fernando Haddad announced he would leave the Finance Ministry in February 2026 to run for governor of São Paulo, reducing his chances in the presidential race and causing his market price to drop from over 50% to around 3%.
Lula leads first‑ and second‑round scenarios in 2026 poll
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 59%3%
A Valor International poll released on 2025‑12‑17 showed Lula leading both first‑round and runoff scenarios, reinforcing his market price at 59 % on 2025‑11‑03 and keeping it above 50 % throughout December.
Poll shows Lula leads first- and second-round scenarios for 2026 election
A Genial/Quaest poll confirmed Lula's lead in both first and second rounds, with Flávio Bolsonaro ranking second, reinforcing Lula's front-runner status but indicating a competitive race.
Genial/Quaest poll tests Flávio Bolsonaro for the first time
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 18%7%
Following his official pre-candidacy announcement, a Genial/Quaest poll showed Flávio Bolsonaro ranking second behind Lula, consolidating his position as the primary right-wing challenger.
Quaest poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro gaining ground, jolting markets
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 18%8%
A poll revealed Flávio Bolsonaro's rising support, causing market volatility with stock declines and currency gains as investors reassessed his chances against Lula. The poll also indicated high rejection rates for Bolsonaro, suggesting uncertainty about his candidacy's viability.
Jair Bolsonaro endorses son Flávio's presidential bid from hospital
Former President Jair Bolsonaro publicly endorsed his son Flávio's 2026 presidential campaign while undergoing surgery, reinforcing Flávio's position and supporting his market price around 16%.
Flávio Bolsonaro officially announces presidential pre-candidacy
Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 20%19%
Flávio Bolsonaro, son of the imprisoned former president, announced his pre-candidacy for president, mobilizing the Liberal Party's evangelical and rural networks, which led to a significant rise in his market price from 1% to 20%.
Markets react negatively to Lula's lead in election polls
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 48%1%
A poll showing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead in the 2026 election caused Brazilian markets to slump, reflecting investor wariness about Lula's economic policies and the election outlook. This event coincided with Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy announcement, influencing market sentiment.
Datafolha poll shows voters reject Bolsonaro‑backed candidate
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 10%10%
A Datafolha poll conducted days after the endorsement showed the majority of voters would not vote for a candidate backed by Jair Bolsonaro, dampening Flávio’s momentum and causing his price to fall sharply.
Poll shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied, jolting markets
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 15%13%
A Quaest poll showed Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in a potential runoff, causing market volatility and a rise in Flávio's market price as the race tightened.
Datafolha poll puts Lula ahead, markets slump on fiscal‑risk fears
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 42%13%
A Datafolha poll released on 16 Dec 2025 showed Lula ahead of all rivals. The market interpreted the poll as a signal that Lula’s fiscal agenda could tighten, causing his price to fall from 55 % to 42 % in two days.
Poll shows Lula leading, causing market jitters and asset sell-off
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 48%11%
A poll published on December 16, 2025, showed President Lula ahead in the election, which led to a slump in Brazilian markets as investors grew wary of the economic outlook under his continued leadership.
Flávio Bolsonaro ramps up campaign after father returns to prison
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 16%8%
Following Jair Bolsonaro’s return to prison after his hernia operation, Flávio Bolsonaro campaigned actively on television, further raising his profile and pushing his probability up to 16 % by late December.
Flávio Bolsonaro retracts suggestion of exiting race for a price
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 14%5%
Flávio Bolsonaro publicly reaffirmed his commitment to run for president after suggesting he might exit the race for the right price, stabilizing his candidacy and market support.
Flávio Bolsonaro re‑affirms candidacy after price‑talk controversy
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 12%3%
Flávio Bolsonaro re‑affirmed his commitment to stay in the race after critics accused him of “putting a price” on his candidacy; the clarification halted a brief price drop and sent his market price back up to about 12 %.
Flávio Bolsonaro retracts “price” comment on abandoning campaign
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 2%1%
Flávio Bolsonaro claimed he could withdraw from the race for a “price”, then retracted the comment, generating a brief market dip for Flávio (down to 1 %) and a modest rebound for Luiz Lula as the scandal faded.
Flávio Bolsonaro re‑asserts run despite ‘price’ controversy
Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 16%15%
Flávio Bolsonaro publicly re‑affirmed his candidacy after criticism for allegedly suggesting a “price” to exit the race. The statement slowed his price decline, keeping it around 16 % through January 2026.
Flávio Bolsonaro Declares Presidential Candidacy Irreversible
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 14%3%
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro clarified that his decision to run is irreversible unless his father is freed and allowed on the ballot, solidifying his status as a candidate.
Flávio Bolsonaro confirms irreversible decision to run for president
Flávio Bolsonaro publicly confirmed his candidacy for the 2026 presidential election, reinforcing his commitment and increasing market interest in his campaign.
Lula announces Fernando Haddad as Minister of Economy in new government
Fernando Haddad plunges to 3%49%
Lula's announcement of Fernando Haddad as Minister of Economy reinforced Haddad's political relevance but did not translate into sustained market support, as Haddad's election chances declined significantly afterward.
Flávio Bolsonaro reaffirms irreversible decision to run for president
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 16%6%
After initial speculation that he might withdraw, Flávio Bolsonaro confirmed his decision to run for president is irreversible, solidifying his campaign and maintaining his rising market support.
Flávio Bolsonaro confirms presidential run despite controversy
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%9%
Flávio Bolsonaro reaffirmed his commitment to run for president in 2026 despite criticism over his earlier suggestion of dropping out for a 'price'. This solidified his position as the main right-wing candidate after his father Jair Bolsonaro's imprisonment and endorsement.
Flávio Bolsonaro confirms irreversible presidential run despite controversy
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 15%2%
Flávio Bolsonaro reaffirmed his commitment to run for president in 2026 after suggesting he might step aside, clarifying he would only do so if his father was freed and running, stabilizing his candidacy and market support.
Flávio Bolsonaro reaffirms irreversible presidential run despite controversy
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 16%3%
Flávio Bolsonaro reaffirmed his commitment to run for president in 2026, walking back earlier remarks about possibly stepping aside, which stabilized his market price around 16%.
Flávio Bolsonaro confirms definitive presidential pre-candidacy for 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%8%
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro publicly affirmed his firm commitment to run for president in 2026, signaling a serious challenge to Lula and causing his market price to rise sharply.
Flávio Bolsonaro suggests a 'price' to withdraw from 2026 race
Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 16%4%
Shortly after announcing his candidacy, Flávio Bolsonaro stated he had a 'price' to withdraw from the race, interpreted as linked to his father's imprisonment. This created uncertainty around his campaign but he later reaffirmed commitment, causing market volatility.
Flávio Bolsonaro announces presidential run, boosting his market support
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%8%
Flávio Bolsonaro's entry into the presidential race caused a sharp increase in his market price as he gained recognition as a right-wing contender, reflecting shifting dynamics in the opposition.
Flávio Bolsonaro's bid triggers strategic shake-up on the right
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 16%6%
Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy caused recalculations among right-wing leaders, with some governors confirming their own presidential runs and others reconsidering their strategies. The move was seen as potentially benefiting Lula by splitting the opposition vote.
Flávio Bolsonaro’s São Paulo rally goes viral
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%9%
A Reuters video of Flávio Bolsonaro’s rally in São Paulo was widely shared, boosting his public profile. The surge helped his market price climb from 1 % to 10 % in the following days.
Flávio Bolsonaro announces 2026 presidential candidacy with father's endorsement
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 9%7%
Flávio Bolsonaro declared his intention to run for president in 2026, receiving formal endorsement from his imprisoned father Jair Bolsonaro, consolidating right-wing support and causing his market price to rise from 2% to 9%.
Flávio Bolsonaro announces presidential candidacy with father's endorsement
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 9%7%
Flávio Bolsonaro, son of imprisoned Jair Bolsonaro, officially announced his candidacy for president with his father's endorsement, consolidating right-wing support. This caused his market price to rise sharply from 2% to 9% in December 2025.
Flávio Bolsonaro enters Brazil’s 2026 presidential race with father’s endorsement
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%9%
Imprisoned ex-President Jair Bolsonaro endorsed his son Flávio Bolsonaro's presidential bid, boosting Flávio's profile and market support as he positioned himself as the right-wing candidate against Lula.
Flávio Bolsonaro enters presidential race with father's endorsement
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 9%7%
In December 2025, Flávio Bolsonaro, son of imprisoned former president Jair Bolsonaro, announced his candidacy with his father's endorsement, causing his market price to surge from 2% to 9% and later higher. This consolidated much of the right-wing base behind him.
Flávio Bolsonaro Endorsed by Imprisoned Father for 2026 Presidential Bid
Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 32%30%
Imprisoned former President Jair Bolsonaro endorsed his son Flávio Bolsonaro's presidential campaign, significantly boosting the far-right candidate's visibility and leading to a price surge from 2% to 32%.
Jair Bolsonaro endorses son Flávio for 2026 presidential race
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 12%10%
Former president Jair Bolsonaro endorsed his son Flávio Bolsonaro for the 2026 presidential race, a move that lifted Flávio’s market price from 2 % to about 12 % within days. The endorsement spurred a sharp rise in Flávio’s price and a corresponding dip for rivals, especially Lula, who fell from 50 % to 46 % the same week.
Flávio Bolsonaro announces presidential run with father’s endorsement
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 11%9%
Flávio Bolsonaro announced his candidacy for president, backed by his father. The news drove his market price from 2 % to 11 % over the following days as the Bolsonaro base rallied behind the new contender.
Datafolha Poll Shows Flávio Bolsonaro Trailing Lula in Runoff Scenarios
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 11%1%
A Datafolha poll revealed that Flávio Bolsonaro had the worst performance against Lula in a potential second round compared to other right-wing figures, though his entry consolidated the conservative base.
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigns to run for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 4%48%
Haddad’s resignation removed a senior Lula ally from the cabinet, diminishing his personal political brand and causing a steep decline in his own election market price.
Lula’s administration replaces Haddad with Dario Durigan
Fernando Haddad dips to 2%2%
The cabinet shuffle further signaled a shift away from Haddad’s influence, reinforcing the market’s move away from his candidacy.
Jair Bolsonaro Endorses Son Flávio Bolsonaro for 2026 Presidential Run
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 15%13%
Imprisoned former President Jair Bolsonaro endorsed his eldest son, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, to represent the far-right Liberal Party (PL) in the 2026 election, causing Flávio's market odds to surge.
Flávio Bolsonaro announces pre‑candidacy for 2026 presidency with father’s backing
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 8%6%
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro announced his presidential pre‑candidacy with his father’s endorsement. The market reacted sharply, lifting Flávio’s odds from 2 % to about 8 % on Dec 5 and then to 16 % the next day, while Lula’s price rose as investors saw the race becoming a two‑person contest.
Flávio Bolsonaro announces presidential run with father's endorsement
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 13%12%
Flávio Bolsonaro publicly confirmed his decision to run for president in 2026, backed by his imprisoned father Jair Bolsonaro, marking his emergence as the main right-wing candidate and causing his market price to jump from 1% to 13%.
Jair Bolsonaro backs son Flávio for 2026 presidential candidacy
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%8%
Jair Bolsonaro publicly endorsed his son Flávio as the Liberal Party’s presidential candidate. The endorsement sent Flávio’s price soaring from near‑zero to double‑digits (≈2 % on 18 Nov to 10 % on 6 Dec) and sparked a broader rally of right‑wing support.
Flávio Bolsonaro named presidential candidate in Bolsonaro’s handwritten letter
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 8%6%
During a press conference before his father’s hernia surgery, Flávio Bolsonaro read a handwritten letter in which Jair Bolsonaro formally appointed him as the Liberal Party’s presidential candidate, sending Flávio’s market odds soaring from 2 % to 8 % in a single day.
Liberal Party confirms Flávio Bolsonaro as presidential candidate
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 2%1%
The Liberal Party officially confirmed Flávio Bolsonaro as its presidential candidate, a step that lifted his price from near‑zero to about 2 % on 5 Dec and started the upward trend seen through the month.
Bolsonaro backs son Flávio for 2026 presidency
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 12%11%
Jair Bolsonaro publicly endorsed his son Flávio Bolsonaro as the Liberal Party’s presidential candidate, a move that spurred a sharp increase in Flávio’s market price from 1 % to over 10 % within days, while Lula’s price fell modestly.
Flávio Bolsonaro Enters 2026 Presidential Race with Father's Endorsement
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%8%
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro announced his candidacy for the presidency in 2026, acting as the heir apparent to his father's political movement, which caused his market odds to surge.
Flávio Bolsonaro named pre‑candidate, DI rates surge
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 12%11%
Infomoney reported that the announcement of Flávio Bolsonaro’s pre‑candidate status caused DI rates to spike 50 bp and lifted Flávio’s market price sharply, from 1 % on 29 Nov to 12 % on 7 Dec.
Flávio Bolsonaro announces presidential candidacy with father's endorsement
Flávio Bolsonaro officially launched his 2026 presidential campaign with the endorsement of his imprisoned father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, positioning himself as the heir to his father's political legacy. This announcement marked the formal start of his campaign and influenced early market pricing.
Flávio Bolsonaro announces 2026 presidential candidacy with father's endorsement
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%8%
Flávio Bolsonaro officially declared his candidacy for the 2026 presidential election, receiving a significant endorsement from his imprisoned father Jair Bolsonaro. This announcement caused a market reaction with a drop in Brazil's currency and stock index, reflecting uncertainty about the right-wing opposition's direction.
Markets react negatively to Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy announcement
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 13%11%
The announcement of Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy caused a sharp drop in Brazilian markets, with the Ibovespa index falling 4.3% and the real weakening against the dollar, reflecting investor concerns about political risk and economic policy uncertainty.
Flávio Bolsonaro officially enters 2026 presidential race with father's endorsement
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 4%3%
Flávio Bolsonaro announced his candidacy for the presidency with the backing of his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, marking a significant moment that boosted his visibility and polling numbers. This announcement contributed to his rise in the market from near 1-2% to higher levels.
Flávio Bolsonaro announced as Jair Bolsonaro's chosen successor for 2026 election
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 14%12%
On December 5, 2025, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro publicly announced he was chosen by his father, Jair Bolsonaro, to run for president in 2026, boosting his candidacy and market price significantly.
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigns to run for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 3%49%
Fernando Haddad resigned as finance minister to run for governor of São Paulo, reducing his presidential election prospects and causing his market probability to drop sharply.
Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery in Brasilia hospital
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 13%12%
Bolsonaro underwent a medically necessary double hernia surgery, which temporarily removed him from active political engagement and raised concerns about his health, impacting market confidence in his and his family's electoral prospects.
Michelle Bolsonaro publicly criticized by Bolsonaro's sons amid family rift
Michelle Bolsonaro dips to 1%1%
Michelle Bolsonaro's participation in political events led to public criticism from Bolsonaro's sons, deepening family divisions and further reducing her market support to 1%.
Jair Bolsonaro backs son Flávio for 2026 presidential race
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%8%
Jair Bolsonaro publicly endorsed his son Flávio as the right‑wing candidate, triggering a surge in Flávio’s market price from 2 % to 10 % within a few days and later to a peak of 23 % on 28 Dec 2025.
Jair Bolsonaro begins serving 27-year prison sentence for coup plot
Jair Bolsonaro plunges to 1%35%
Former President Jair Bolsonaro started serving a lengthy prison sentence for his role in the 2023 coup attempt, removing him from the political arena and indirectly boosting his son's candidacy while negatively impacting Jair's own market odds.
Poll shows Lula leads all potential right-wing challengers ahead of 2026 vote
A poll released on November 25 confirmed Lula leading against right-wing challengers including former President Bolsonaro, his son Eduardo Bolsonaro, and Michelle Bolsonaro. This reinforced Lula’s frontrunner status despite some opposition presence.
Supreme Court Orders Jair Bolsonaro to Begin 27-Year Prison Sentence
Jair Bolsonaro dips to 1%1%
Brazil's Supreme Court ordered former President Jair Bolsonaro to begin serving his 27-year prison sentence for a coup plot, effectively ending his 2026 presidential prospects.
MDA poll shows Lula leads all right-wing challengers, including Bolsonaro
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 53%2%
A poll by MDA found Lula leading in all potential second-round matchups, with 46% against São Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas (39%) and 49% against former President Bolsonaro (37%). This reinforced Lula's position and showed Bolsonaro's candidacy was still generating interest despite legal barriers.
Jair Bolsonaro begins serving 27-year prison sentence
Following the Supreme Court ruling, Bolsonaro began serving his prison sentence, further diminishing his political influence and solidifying his ineligibility for the 2026 election. This event reinforced the market's low valuation of his candidacy.
Reuters poll shows Lula ahead of right‑wing rivals
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 55%2%
A Reuters poll showed Lula maintaining a lead over right‑wing rivals, keeping his market price relatively stable around the low‑50 % range despite volatility elsewhere.
Poll shows Lula leading potential right-wing rivals ahead of 2026 vote
A poll by MDA showed Lula leading all potential right-wing challengers, reinforcing his frontrunner status and setting the initial market expectations for the election. This contributed to Lula's initial high market price and the positioning of other candidates.
Poll shows Lula leading all right-wing challengers with rising approval
A poll released on November 25, 2025, showed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading all potential right-wing challengers for the 2026 election, with his approval ratings climbing, supporting his market position despite some narrowing margins.
Lula leads all potential right‑wing challengers in November poll
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 48%7%
A MDA poll released on 25 Nov 2025 showed Lula leading all potential right‑wing challengers with a comfortable margin, helping his market price stabilize around the high‑50s after a brief dip earlier in the month.
Supreme Court Orders Immediate Enforcement of Bolsonaro's Prison Sentence
Jair Bolsonaro dips to 1%1%
Justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered the immediate execution of Jair Bolsonaro's 27-year prison sentence, further crushing any remaining hopes of a political comeback.
MDA poll shows Lula leading all potential right-wing challengers
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 51%3%
A new poll by research institute MDA confirmed that President Lula leads all potential right-wing rivals for the 2026 election, while his approval ratings continue to climb.
Lula leads all right‑wing challengers in MDA poll; Renan Santos at 5 %
Renan Santos plunges to 5%45%
A Reuters‑published MDA poll on 25 Nov 2025 listed Renan Santos with only 5 % support, far below his earlier 50 % surge in early October. The poll’s release aligns with the market plunge from 50 % on 13 Oct 2025 to 5 % on 21 Oct 2025 and staying near 5 % through late November.
MDA poll keeps Lula ahead of right‑wing rivals
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 51%8%
The same MDA poll cited above reaffirmed Lula’s lead at 32 % and showed a modest dip in his market price from 59 % on 2025‑11‑20 to 51 % on 2025‑11‑24, reflecting the market’s reaction to the narrowing margin against right‑wing opponents.
Brazil defies US tariffs, Lula emerges politically stronger
Following a US-Brazil diplomatic dispute involving tariffs and sanctions, a November 24, 2025 New York Times article reported that Brazil defied US pressure and Lula emerged politically stronger, reinforcing his market position.
Bolsonaro’s arrest reshapes the 2026 presidential race in Brazil
Jair Bolsonaro dips to 1%2%
BNamericas reported Bolsonaro’s preventive detention on 24 Nov 2025, confirming his imprisonment and effectively removing him from active campaigning. The news triggered a sharp decline in his market price from 3 % on 2025‑11‑22 to 1 % on 2025‑11‑27.
Renan Santos details plans for 2026 presidential run
Renan Santos gave an interview on November 18, 2025, outlining his party's strategies and his presidential ambitions, but his market price remained low, reflecting limited public awareness and support.
Jair Bolsonaro arrested for tampering with electronic ankle monitor
Jair Bolsonaro dips to 1%1%
Former President Jair Bolsonaro was taken into police custody after attempting to disable his ankle monitor, ending his house arrest and further diminishing his political viability, reflected in his market price dropping to 1%.
Flávio Bolsonaro formally launches 2026 presidential campaign with father's endorsement
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%8%
Flávio Bolsonaro announced his candidacy for president in 2026 with formal endorsement from his imprisoned father Jair Bolsonaro, energizing right-wing voters and causing a significant rise in his market price.
Former President Jair Bolsonaro arrested over coup plot
Michelle Bolsonaro dips to 1%1%
Jair Bolsonaro was arrested on suspicion of plotting to escape prison and avoid a 27-year sentence for leading a coup attempt. Michelle Bolsonaro publicly vowed supporters would not give up, but family disputes emerged, causing her market price to collapse.
Jair Bolsonaro arrested after ankle‑monitor damage; transferred to larger prison cell
Jair Bolsonaro drops to 1%5%
Jair Bolsonaro was placed under preventive detention after damaging his ankle monitor, and the court ordered his transfer to a larger cell. The legal setback drove his market price from 6 % on 2025‑09‑25 to 1 % on 2025‑12‑05, essentially eliminating his electoral prospects.
Federal police arrest Jair Bolsonaro over alleged escape plot
Flávio Bolsonaro dips to 1%1%
Jair Bolsonaro was arrested by federal police on suspicion of plotting to escape his 27-year prison sentence, intensifying political tensions and impacting the Bolsonaro family’s electoral prospects, especially Flávio Bolsonaro.
Jair Bolsonaro arrested after tampering with ankle monitor
Jair Bolsonaro dips to 1%1%
On November 22, 2025, Jair Bolsonaro was arrested after attempting to damage his electronic ankle monitor, ending his house arrest. This event confirmed his incarceration and further diminished his political viability, reflected in his market price falling to near zero.
Trump lifts tariffs on Brazilian products after meeting Lula
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 56%6%
Following a meeting between Lula and Trump, the US lifted tariffs on Brazilian goods, improving Brazil's economic outlook and bolstering Lula's popularity and market support.
Jair Bolsonaro sentenced to 27 years in prison for coup attempt
Jair Bolsonaro plunges to 1%35%
Former President Jair Bolsonaro was convicted by Brazil's Supreme Federal Court and sentenced to 27 years in prison for involvement in the 2022–2023 coup d'état plot, barring him from running for office until 2030. This removed him from the presidential race and shifted right-wing support to his son Flávio Bolsonaro.
Jair Bolsonaro Arrested Preventively by Federal Police
Former President Jair Bolsonaro was arrested preventively by order of Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, severely damaging his remaining political viability.
Jair Bolsonaro arrested preventively in Brasília
Jair Bolsonaro dips to 1%1%
On November 22, 2025, Jair Bolsonaro was taken into preventive custody in Brasília, further diminishing his chances in the election and causing his market price to fall to near 1%. This legal development confirmed his political marginalization.
Fernando Haddad's market price collapses amid lack of campaign momentum
Fernando Haddad plunges to 4%48%
Fernando Haddad's price fell sharply from 52% to 4% over the analysis window, reflecting his diminishing viability as a leading candidate in the election, likely due to campaign dynamics and voter shifts.
Police Arrest Jair Bolsonaro After Ankle Monitor Tampering
Jair Bolsonaro dips to 1%1%
Jair Bolsonaro was placed in preventive detention at the Federal Police headquarters after damaging his court-ordered ankle monitor with a soldering iron.
Jair Bolsonaro arrested for allegedly plotting escape ahead of prison term
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 15%14%
The arrest of former President Jair Bolsonaro confirmed his incarceration and diminished his political influence, negatively impacting the market perception of his family's political prospects, including Flávio Bolsonaro.
Reuters poll shows Michelle Bolsonaro trailing far behind Lula
Michelle Bolsonaro plunges to 5%47%
A Reuters poll published on 22 Nov 2025 listed former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro at 36‑39% support, a sharp decline from early‑September levels. The poll’s poor showing pushed her market price down from 52% to 5%.
Renan Santos gains attention with national Bitcoin reserve proposal
Renan Santos rises to 7%2%
Renan Santos publicly advocated for establishing a national Bitcoin reserve to transform Brazil's economy and fight corruption, boosting his profile and increasing market support for his candidacy from 5% to 7%.
Flávio Bolsonaro endorsed as candidate by Jair Bolsonaro's movement
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 10%8%
After speculation about the right-wing candidate, former president Jair Bolsonaro endorsed his son Flávio Bolsonaro, boosting Flávio's profile and causing his market price to rise from 2% to 10% in December.
Polls show Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in presidential runoff race
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 47%7%
Polling data indicated a statistical tie between incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro in the upcoming runoff, reflecting a highly polarized electorate and influencing market prices to stabilize around these candidates.
Former President Jair Bolsonaro hospitalized with pneumonia, raising health concerns
Renan Santos dips to 5%2%
Jair Bolsonaro was admitted to intensive care with pneumonia, causing uncertainty about his ability to campaign or influence the election. This health crisis contributed to a decline in market prices for Bolsonaro-linked candidates.
Lula’s popularity declines but opposition fails to gain ground
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 49%7%
An analysis on November 14 showed Lula’s lead shrinking against several rivals, including Michelle Bolsonaro and Eduardo Bolsonaro, but no significant opposition gains occurred. This contributed to a decline in Lula’s market price and a collapse in Renan Santos and Fernando Haddad’s prices.
Fernando Haddad resigns as Brazil's finance minister to run for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 2%50%
Fernando Haddad resigned from his position as finance minister to launch a high-profile campaign for governor of São Paulo, reducing his chances in the presidential race and causing his market price to drop from 52% to 2%.
Brazilian Congress overrides Lula’s veto, reducing Bolsonaro’s prison sentence
The Brazilian Congress overrode President Lula’s veto to pass a law reducing prison sentences for sedition, potentially cutting Bolsonaro’s sentence by up to 20 years, boosting the Bolsonaro political faction’s morale and market support for Flávio Bolsonaro.
Genial/Quaest poll shows Lula leading but with narrowing edge
Renan Santos plunges to 5%45%
A new Genial/Quaest poll showed Lula leading in all tested scenarios, but his advantage over conservative rivals was slipping, while Renan Santos was tested for the first time.
Poll shows Lula leads but faces narrowing edge from right-wing rivals
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 54%5%
A November poll confirmed Lula's lead in the 2026 race but indicated his advantage was shrinking amid a fragmented right-wing opposition, including the emergence of new candidates, influencing market dynamics and price fluctuations.
Poll shows Lula's lead narrowing as Bolsonaro's influence grows
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 55%4%
A November 13, 2025 poll showed Lula still leading but with a narrowing margin against Bolsonaro-backed candidates, reflecting increased competition and causing market adjustments with Lula's price dropping and right-wing candidates gaining slightly.
Genial/Quaest Poll Tests Renan Santos for the First Time
Renan Santos plunges to 8%42%
A new nationwide poll tested Renan Santos of the newly approved Missão party for the first time, showing him with a modest 3% of voting intentions.
Poll shows Lula's lead narrowing as Bolsonaro's support grows
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 9%8%
A Genial/Quaest poll showed Lula still leading but with a narrowing margin against conservative rivals, while Flávio Bolsonaro's support increased from 18% to 26%, reflecting a more competitive race and causing market adjustments.
MDA poll shows Lula’s lead narrowing ahead of 2026 vote
Fernando Haddad plunges to 4%48%
A poll released on 13 Nov 2025 by research institute MDA showed Lula’s lead narrowing and a drop in support for other contenders, including Fernando Haddad, whose share fell to single‑digit levels. This led the market price for Haddad to plunge from 52 % on 18 Sep to 4 % by early November.
Lula’s approval rating halts upward trend amid rising security concerns
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 49%10%
Polls showed Lula’s approval rating plateauing and disapproval rising due to growing public concern over violence and security issues, which negatively impacted his market price. This reflected voter unease affecting Lula's perceived strength.
Former President Jair Bolsonaro sentenced to 27 years for coup attempt
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 56%6%
The sentencing of Jair Bolsonaro removed a major right-wing contender from the race, weakening the opposition and indirectly strengthening Lula's position in the market.
Brazil Supreme Court panel rejects Bolsonaro’s prison sentence appeal
Jair Bolsonaro dips to 1%2%
A Supreme Court panel rejected Bolsonaro’s appeal against his 27‑year sentence, confirming his incarceration and further eroding his remaining market support to 1 %.
Renan Santos' party Missão officially created by TSE
Renan Santos plunges to 6%44%
On November 4, 2025, the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) unanimously approved the creation of the Missão party led by Renan Santos, who announced his presidential candidacy. This event initially boosted his market price from 50% to a low single-digit percentage, reflecting low name recognition and skepticism.
Brazil’s Finance Minister announces $10 billion goal for forest protection fund
Fernando Haddad rises to 4%1%
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad announced an ambitious plan to raise $10 billion for the Tropical Forests Forever Fund, enhancing his profile and briefly supporting his market position before his resignation.
Jair Bolsonaro begins serving 27-year prison sentence for coup plot
Jair Bolsonaro plunges to 1%35%
Former President Jair Bolsonaro started serving a lengthy prison sentence for his role in the 2022 coup attempt, removing him from the political arena and indirectly affecting his son's candidacy and market dynamics.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins 2022 Brazilian presidential election
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 63%8%
Lula's victory in the 2022 election solidified his position as a leading political figure, initially supporting his high market price in late 2025. This event set the stage for his re-election campaign and influenced early market confidence.
Lula announces re-election campaign for fourth presidential term
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 60%5%
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva officially announced his bid for a fourth term, reinforcing his status as the incumbent and maintaining his market lead despite concerns about his age and health.
Jair Bolsonaro elected 38th president of Brazil in 2018
Historical context: Jair Bolsonaro was elected president in 2018, setting the stage for his 2022 defeat and subsequent legal troubles that shaped the 2026 election dynamics.
Lula meets Trump in Malaysia to discuss trade tensions
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva surges to 63%20%
During the ASEAN summit, Lula and Trump held a nearly hour-long meeting addressing the 50% tariffs imposed by the US on Brazilian exports. Lula advocated for suspension of tariffs during negotiations, signaling diplomatic efforts to ease economic tensions, which likely bolstered Lula's market confidence temporarily.
President Lula announces re-election campaign for fourth term
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 56%1%
In late October 2025, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva officially launched his campaign for a fourth presidential term, reinforcing his frontrunner status and impacting market confidence in his candidacy.
Lula announces he will seek a fourth presidential term in 2026
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 56%13%
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva publicly declared his intention to run for a historic fourth term, reinforcing his frontrunner status and causing his market price to recover and stabilize around 50-60%.
Lula announces bid for fourth presidential term in 2026 election
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva officially announced his re-election campaign for a fourth term, solidifying his position as a leading candidate and influencing early market confidence in his chances.
President Lula Announces Re-election Bid for Fourth Term in 2026
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 59%3%
Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva officially announced his intention to run for a fourth term, solidifying his position as the leading candidate.
President Lula Announces He Will Seek Re-Election in 2026
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 57%5%
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva officially confirmed that he will run for a fourth term in the 2026 election, solidifying his position as the primary candidate for the Workers' Party.
President Lula da Silva officially announces bid for fourth term in 2026
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 56%2%
During a state visit to Indonesia, President Lula confirmed he will seek a historic fourth term in the 2026 election, boosting his campaign momentum and solidifying his frontrunner status.
Lula announces intention to run for fourth presidential term in 2026
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 52%9%
Lula publicly declared his plan to seek a fourth term in the October 2026 election, reinforcing his front-runner status and stabilizing his market price.
Lula vetoes bill lowering Bolsonaro’s prison sentence
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 52%14%
Lula vetoed a bill that would have reduced Jair Bolsonaro’s 27‑year prison term, reinforcing his tough stance on the Bolsonaro faction and causing a modest rebound of his price from 38 % to 52 % in late October.
Lula announces run for historic fourth presidential term
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 57%9%
On October 23, 2025, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva publicly announced his intention to run for a fourth nonconsecutive term, reinforcing his frontrunner status and causing a positive impact on his market price.
Lula announces his candidacy for a fourth term in 2026
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 55%7%
President Lula announced on 23 Oct 2025 that he will run for a fourth term in the 2026 election. The declaration reinforced his frontrunner status and lifted his market price from around 48 % to a peak of 67 % on 9 Oct, before stabilising at 55 % by the end of the window.
Lula confirms 2026 re‑election bid in Indonesia
President Lula announced his intention to run for a fourth term during a state visit to Indonesia, formally confirming his candidacy and reinforcing his frontrunner status. Market probability for Lula rose to the mid‑50 % range shortly after.
Lula announces bid for a fourth term in 2026
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva surges to 63%15%
President Lula announced he will run for a fourth, non‑consecutive term in the 2026 election. The declaration reaffirmed his candidacy and lifted market confidence, sending his contract price up from 48 % on 2025‑10‑04 to a peak of 63 % on 2025‑10‑12.
Lula Announces Fourth Presidential Term in 2026
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 49%6%
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva confirmed he will run for a fourth non-consecutive term in the 2026 election, boosting his campaign momentum and leading to a price increase from 55% to 49%.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announces bid for fourth term
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva dips to 53%2%
Lula officially declared his intention to run for re-election in the 2026 presidential election, solidifying his position as the incumbent candidate and leading to initial market confidence in his chances.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announces bid for fourth presidential term
Incumbent President Lula officially declared his intention to run for re-election in the 2026 presidential election, solidifying his position as the leading candidate and setting the stage for the electoral contest.
Lula announces bid for historic fourth presidential term
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 56%13%
Lula officially declared his intention to run for a fourth term, defying expectations given his age, which caused a rally in his market price as he reaffirmed his political ambitions and leadership.
Lula announces run for fourth presidential term in 2026
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva surges to 63%22%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva officially declared his candidacy for a fourth term, reinforcing his frontrunner status and causing his market price to rebound from a dip.
Renan Santos says ‘right can win without Bolsonaro’
Renan Santos rises to 4%3%
Renan Santos, founder of the new Mission party, gave an interview declaring the right‑wing could succeed without the Bolsonaro name. The message resonated with independent voters and lifted his market price from 1 % (mid‑October) to 4 % by the end of the month.
Electoral Institute corrects Renan Santos poll from 50 % to 4 %
Renan Santos plunges to 7%43%
A poll released by the Brazilian Electoral Institute showed Renan Santos at 50 % support early October, but a subsequent corrected poll a week later placed him at just 4 %, explaining the sharp decline from 50 % to 7 % in the market.
Renan Santos's party officially created by TSE
The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) unanimously approved the creation of the Missão party led by Renan Santos, initially boosting his market price to 50%. However, subsequent polling corrections caused a sharp decline.
Electoral Court registers Renan Santos’s Missão party
Renan Santos plunges to 3%47%
The Electoral Court approved the registration of Renan Santos’s new “Missão” party, but early polling showed the name still virtually unknown, sending his price from 50 % to 3 % in one day.
Renan Santos says Missão will not run a presidential candidate in 2026
Renan Santos plunges to 3%47%
On 13 Oct 2025 the Missão party’s leader Renan Santos gave an interview in which he warned that his party would not field a presidential candidate, causing market participants to reassess his viability and driving the price for Renan Santos from 50 % down to 3 % within a day.
President Lula vetoes bill that would reduce Bolsonaro’s prison sentence
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 63%8%
Lula’s veto signaled a hard‑line stance against Bolsonaro’s legal challenges, boosting Lula’s perceived strength and raising Flávio Bolsonaro’s profile as the main challenger, while hurting Bolsonaro‑aligned candidates.
Flávio Bolsonaro emerges as Bolsonaro’s official presidential candidate
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 11%9%
Following the veto, Flávio Bolsonaro announced he would run as the official candidate of the Bolsonaro camp, giving his name a clear electoral identity and driving his market price upward.
Bolsonaro sentenced to 27 years for 2022 coup plot
Renan Santos plunges to 5%45%
On September 11, 2025, former President Jair Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years in prison for plotting a military coup, which severely damaged the Bolsonaro political faction's prospects and caused a sharp drop in market prices for Bolsonaro-aligned candidates like Renan Santos and Michelle Bolsonaro.
Bolsonaro sentenced to 27 years for attempted coup
Jair Bolsonaro plunges to 1%35%
The STF sentenced former President Jair Bolsonaro to 27 years for a coup plot, confirming his permanent ineligibility for the 2026 race. The verdict collapsed his market support from 36 % on 18 Sep to single‑digit levels by late October.
Michelle Bolsonaro waves off speculation of 2026 presidential run
Michelle Bolsonaro drops to 1%9%
Michelle Bolsonaro tamped down rumors that she would run for office in place of her husband, stating that the biggest name on the Brazilian right remains Jair Bolsonaro.
Michelle Bolsonaro says she will not run for president
Michelle Bolsonaro drops to 0%6%
In a Reuters interview Michelle Bolsonaro dismissed any speculation she would run for president, stating the decision depended on “God’s will”. The clear denial caused her market price to fall sharply from 6 % to 0 % within a week.
Lula proposes 6×1 work‑week reduction without wage cuts
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 57%9%
Lula announced a proposal to cut the standard 6‑day work week without salary cuts, a popular labor reform that lifted his price from 48 % to 57 %, the highest level in the window.
Lula's popularity peaks amid strong campaign momentum
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva surges to 67%15%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's market price peaked at 67% on October 9, 2025, reflecting strong campaign momentum and public support early in the election cycle.
Quaest poll shows Lula with 39% lead over Flávio
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 67%12%
A Quaest poll released on 9 Oct showed Lula leading with 39 % against Flávio’s 18 %, pushing Lula’s price up to a 67 % peak on 9 Oct before a pull‑back later in the month.
Congress defeats Haddad’s tax‑revenue measure
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 43%13%
Congress voted down a tax‑revenue package that Haddad had counted on for a primary‑surplus goal. The failure hurt Lula’s fiscal narrative, pulling his price down from 56 % to 43 % by the end of October.
Poll shows Lula leading runoff 61 % over opponents
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva surges to 67%15%
A Reuters‑compiled poll released on 9 Oct showed Lula at 61 % in a simulated runoff, creating a short‑term surge that lifted his market price from 52 % to a high of 67 % that day before normalizing.
Poll shows Lula maintains lead in all election scenarios
A Quaest poll released in early October showed Lula leading all first-round and runoff scenarios, reinforcing his frontrunner status and supporting his market price.
Brazil’s Congress kills key tax‑measure, raising fiscal concerns
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 56%7%
A Reuters story reported the government’s failure to pass a key tax‑measure, prompting speculation that Lula’s administration was under fiscal pressure. The uncertainty contributed to a brief dip in Lula’s price from 63 % to 56 % on 2025‑10‑10, but the overall trend remained upward.
Diplomatic breakthrough with Donald Trump boosts Lula’s approval ratings
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 58%8%
Following a diplomatic thaw with former U.S. President Donald Trump, Lula's approval ratings improved, contributing to a price increase in his market share. This event positively influenced market confidence in Lula's electability.
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad confirms studies on eliminating public transport fares
Fernando Haddad dips to 2%1%
Brazil's Finance Minister Fernando Haddad acknowledged initiatives that raised market concerns about fiscal discipline under Lula's government, contributing to some volatility and decline in Haddad's market support during October.
Lula's presidential campaign gains momentum after official announcement
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 51%8%
Following Lula's formal announcement to run for a fourth term, his market price surged from 43% to 51%, reflecting renewed investor confidence in his electoral prospects despite some volatility.
Legislative override of Lula's veto reduces Bolsonaro's prison sentence potential
Renan Santos rises to 7%4%
Brazilian Congress overrode President Lula's veto on a law that reduces prison sentences for sedition, potentially cutting Jair Bolsonaro's sentence by up to 20 years. This legislative victory boosted market confidence in Bolsonaro's political faction, reflected in price recoveries for related candidates.
Lula announces R$12 billion credit line for indebted farmers
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 48%5%
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced a significant credit program to support farmers affected by climate adversities, boosting his market confidence and price from 43% to 48%. This policy move reinforced his image as a pro-social candidate.
Lula announces R$ 1.6 bn Rio Doce basin investment
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 57%2%
Lula announced a R$ 1.6 bn investment in the Rio Doce basin, boosting his image as a builder and nudging his price upward from 55 % to 57 % the following week.
Finance Minister Haddad confirms Lula will run for reelection in 2026
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 50%5%
On September 27, 2025, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad publicly confirmed that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will seek reelection in 2026, solidifying Lula's candidacy and likely contributing to market confidence in his chances.
Michelle Bolsonaro hints at possible 2026 candidacy
Michelle Bolsonaro jumps to 13%12%
Michelle Bolsonaro publicly said she might run for president, causing a brief climb from 1 % to 13 % on 26 Sep, then a sharp fall to 0 % by early October as the “Bolsonaro” brand faced legal setbacks.
Michelle Bolsonaro hints at 2026 presidential run amid husband's imprisonment
Michelle Bolsonaro jumps to 13%13%
Michelle Bolsonaro publicly acknowledged the possibility of running for president in 2026 while her husband awaited prison, causing a brief rise in her market price from 0% to 13% before it declined sharply.
Fernando Haddad announces creation of financial crimes investigation unit
Fernando Haddad plunges to 4%48%
On September 25, 2025, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad announced a new delegation to combat financial crimes, signaling a tough stance on corruption and crime. This move was seen as an attempt to bolster his political profile but did not significantly improve his electoral chances, as reflected in his market price dropping from 52% to below 5%.
Michelle Bolsonaro signals readiness to run for presidency
Michelle Bolsonaro jumps to 13%8%
Michelle Bolsonaro publicly stated she was ready to 'fulfill God's will' to run for president, raising speculation about her candidacy. This announcement caused her market price to spike briefly before declining as doubts emerged.
Michelle Bolsonaro admits possibility of 2026 presidential candidacy
Michelle Bolsonaro plunges to 6%46%
Michelle Bolsonaro publicly admitted the possibility of running for president in 2026 amid Jair Bolsonaro's absence from the race, causing initial market interest that later declined.
Michelle Bolsonaro admits she could run for president in 2026
Michelle Bolsonaro drops to 0%12%
Former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro hinted she might run for president if needed. The brief surge in her market price to 12 % on 26 Sep vanished by 4 Oct, after she clarified she was only ‘considering’ a run, sending her price to 0 %.
Michelle Bolsonaro hints at potential 2026 run following husband's conviction
Michelle Bolsonaro plunges to 13%39%
Following Jair Bolsonaro's conviction, Michelle Bolsonaro positioned herself as a potential successor and champion of the Brazilian Right, stating she would rise like a lioness and run if it was God's will.
Lula condemns Bolsonaro's coup attempt in UN speech, boosting his democratic credentials
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 42%13%
At the UN General Assembly, Lula highlighted Brazil's defense of democracy against Bolsonaro's coup attempt, enhancing his image as a defender of democratic institutions and increasing market confidence in his candidacy.
MBL’s Renan Santos declares Bolsonarismo imploding, opens space for new right‑wing party
Renan Santos plunges to 4%46%
Renan Santos, national coordinator of the Movimento Brasil Livre, said Bolsonarismo was “imploding,” positioning his new “Missão” party as a pragmatic right‑wing alternative. The comment coincided with a dramatic fall in Renan’s market price from 50 % (13 Sept) to 4 % (18 Oct).
Finance Minister Haddad signals imminent Selic rate cut
Fernando Haddad plunges to 3%49%
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad announced a forthcoming reduction in Brazil’s benchmark Selic rate, a message that was interpreted as a sign of improving economic conditions and contributed to a steep drop in his own market price from over 50 % to about 3 % as traders reassessed his presidential prospects.
Finance minister Haddad creates new financial‑crime police unit
Fernando Haddad rises to 4%2%
Haddad announced the creation of a new federal financial‑crime police unit, a move that briefly raised his visibility and lifted his market price from 2 % to 4 % before it fell back.
Lula vetoes bill that would ease Bolsonaro’s prison sentence
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 58%3%
President Lula vetoed a Senate‑passed bill that would have reduced former President Bolsonaro’s prison term. The move was presented as a defence of democracy and boosted Lula’s standing among voters, lifting his market price from 55 % to 58 % over the following week.
Michelle Bolsonaro’s visibility drops amid father’s prison health saga
Michelle Bolsonaro plunges to 6%46%
After Jair Bolsonaro’s health crisis and the media focus on his incarceration, Michelle Bolsonaro’s public appearances and statements were sharply criticized, causing her market share to tumble from 52 % to 6 % within two days.
Renan Santos’ new party registration announced by MBL
Renan Santos jumps to 50%12%
MBL announced the registration of Renan Santos’ new ‘Missão’ party, raising his visibility and briefly lifting his market price to 50 %; the subsequent lack of momentum helped the price tumble to 4 % by mid‑October.
MBL Prepares to Launch New Political Party 'Missão'
Renan Santos plunges to 6%44%
The Free Brazil Movement (MBL) announced the creation of its own political party, Missão, which was subsequently approved by the TSE. This set the stage for Renan Santos to emerge as a potential right-wing alternative candidate.
Jair Bolsonaro convicted and sentenced for 2022 coup plot
Jair Bolsonaro plunges to 1%35%
On September 11, 2025, Jair Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years in prison for involvement in the 2022 coup attempt, removing him as a presidential contender and shifting right-wing support to his son Flávio Bolsonaro. This legal development caused Jair Bolsonaro's market price to plummet from 36% to near 1%.
Poll shows Lula leading all 2026 presidential scenarios
A Quaest poll published on September 18, 2025, showed Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading all first- and second-round scenarios, establishing him as the frontrunner and supporting his market price around 55%.
Lula maintains lead in first and second-round election scenarios
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 42%13%
A Genial/Quaest poll released on September 18 showed Lula leading with 43% in first-round scenarios and maintaining leads in second-round matchups, including against Michelle Bolsonaro who had 18%. This reinforced Lula's frontrunner status early in the analysis window.
Finance Minister Haddad resigns to launch bid for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 3%49%
Finance Minister Haddad resigned to run for governor of São Paulo, removing him from the presidential race and causing his market probability to plunge from 52 % to 3 % within days.
Quaest poll shows Lula leading all 2026 presidential scenarios
A poll by Quaest released on September 18, 2025, showed Lula leading all first- and second-round scenarios for the 2026 election, indicating strong early support and setting the baseline for market expectations.
Quaest poll puts Lula ahead of all rivals in 2026 presidential race
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 41%14%
A Quaest poll released on 18 Sept 2025 showed Lula leading all first‑ and second‑round scenarios (33 % vs 18 % for Michelle). The strong showing lifted Lula’s market price from 55 % to 41 % and knocked down the odds for Michelle, Flávio, Haddad and Renan, matching the sharp price swings recorded that week.
Michelle Bolsonaro's candidacy prospects sharply decline amid campaign developments
Michelle Bolsonaro plunges to 5%47%
Michelle Bolsonaro's market price dropped dramatically from 52% to 5% within days, reflecting diminishing expectations of her presidential run, possibly due to her public statements denying candidacy and limited campaign activity.
Quaest poll shows Lula leads in all 2026 presidential scenarios
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva rises to 53%1%
A major poll confirmed Lula's lead in every first- and second-round configuration, with his support ranging from 34% to 41% and Bolsonaro's from 21% to 27% in different scenarios. This established Lula as the frontrunner and set the market baseline.
Poll shows Lula leads all 2026 presidential scenarios but with high disapproval
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 42%13%
A September 18, 2025 poll showed Lula leading all scenarios for 2026 but with a majority disapproving his reelection, reflecting mixed public sentiment and contributing to price fluctuations.
Quaest poll shows Haddad at 4 % versus Lula’s 32 % on 18 Sept 2025
Fernando Haddad plunges to 4%48%
A Quaest poll released on 18 Sept 2025 showed Haddad at just 4 % support while Lula led at 32 %. The stark drop in Haddad’s numbers coincides with the market slide from 52 % to 4 % for him on 18 Sept, reflecting voter realignment after Lula’s candidacy became certain.
Lula keeps Vice President Geraldo Alckmin as running mate for 2026 bid
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 62%7%
Lula announced that Vice‑President Geraldo Alckmin would remain his running mate. The confirmation gave voters a clear ticket, lifting Lula’s price from 55 % to 62 % within a week, peaking at 67 % on 2025‑10‑09.
Quaest poll shows >60 % rejection of Bolsonaro family for 2026 election
Michelle Bolsonaro plunges to 5%47%
A Quaest poll released on 18 Sep 2025 showed rejection rates above 60 % for Jair Bolsonaro, his wife Michelle and Eduardo Bolsonaro. The surge in negative perception of the Bolsonaro family caused the market price for Michelle Bolsonaro to tumble from 52 % to 5 % in two days.
Brazil's Congress fast-tracks amnesty bill potentially benefiting Bolsonaro
Jair Bolsonaro plunges to 6%30%
On September 18, 2025, Brazil's lower house voted to fast-track an amnesty bill that could reduce sentences for Bolsonaro and his supporters, raising speculation about his political future and impacting his market price negatively.
Brazilian presidential election market launches amid Lula's strong lead
The market opened with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as the frontrunner at 55%, while Fernando Haddad and Jair Bolsonaro had significant shares. This reflected Lula's announcement to seek a fourth term and his established political dominance.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva remains front-runner in first-round scenarios
A survey by Instituto Ideia found Lula leading all first-round matchups, with a tight runoff picture against Bolsonaro, Tarcísio de Freitas, and Michelle Bolsonaro all within statistical ties.
Poll shows Lula leading, Haddad and Bolsonaro trailing badly
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva plunges to 39%16%
A poll released on 18 Sep 2025 showed Lula far ahead while Fernando Haddad was barely in double‑digits and Jair Bolsonaro’s support collapsed. The data triggered an immediate dip in Lula’s price (55 % → 39 %) and a plunge for Haddad (52 % → 4 %) and Bolsonaro (36 % → 3 %).
OAB criticizes Fernando Haddad's comments on 'precatórios industry'
Fernando Haddad plunges to 3%49%
The Brazilian Bar Association (OAB) publicly condemned Finance Minister Fernando Haddad's remarks referring to the precatórios payment system as an 'industry,' which was seen as undermining judicial decisions. This controversy likely contributed to Haddad's sharp price decline from 52% to 3% shortly after.
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