Brazil's 2026 IPCA inflation market reflects trader focus on the central bank's tight monetary stance and recent price moderation, with the July 2026 reading easing to 4.44% year-over-year—within the 1.5-4.5% target band after prior overshoots. Market forecasts via the Focus survey have edged lower to around 5.0% for year-end amid cooling food, transport, and fuel components, supported by retreating global oil prices and a high Selic rate near prior peaks. This positions the 5.00-5.49% band as the plurality outcome, while broader consensus from IMF and OECD projections near 4.3-4.4% underpins support for the 4.50-4.99% range. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming monthly CPI releases and any signals on policy easing timing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato5,00-5,49% 45.8%
4,50-4,99% 22.6%
5,50-5,99% 19.7%
4,00-4,49% 7.4%
$95,401 Vol.
$95,401 Vol.
12 gen 2027
<3,00%
1%
3,00-3,49%
1%
3,50-3,99%
2%
4,00-4,49%
7%
4,50-4,99%
21%
5,00-5,49%
46%
5,50-5,99%
20%
6,00-6,49%
1%
6,50-6,99%
<1%
7,00%+
3%
5,00-5,49% 45.8%
4,50-4,99% 22.6%
5,50-5,99% 19.7%
4,00-4,49% 7.4%
$95,401 Vol.
$95,401 Vol.
12 gen 2027
<3,00%
$5,727 Vol.
1%
3,00-3,49%
$5,787 Vol.
1%
3,50-3,99%
$13,189 Vol.
2%
4,00-4,49%
$14,048 Vol.
7%
4,50-4,99%
$15,147 Vol.
21%
5,00-5,49%
$14,104 Vol.
46%
5,50-5,99%
$9,432 Vol.
20%
6,00-6,49%
$6,485 Vol.
1%
6,50-6,99%
$6,683 Vol.
<1%
7,00%+
$4,799 Vol.
3%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil's 2026 IPCA inflation market reflects trader focus on the central bank's tight monetary stance and recent price moderation, with the July 2026 reading easing to 4.44% year-over-year—within the 1.5-4.5% target band after prior overshoots. Market forecasts via the Focus survey have edged lower to around 5.0% for year-end amid cooling food, transport, and fuel components, supported by retreating global oil prices and a high Selic rate near prior peaks. This positions the 5.00-5.49% band as the plurality outcome, while broader consensus from IMF and OECD projections near 4.3-4.4% underpins support for the 4.50-4.99% range. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming monthly CPI releases and any signals on policy easing timing.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Mercato aperto: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$95,401Data di fine
12 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil's 2026 IPCA inflation market reflects trader focus on the central bank's tight monetary stance and recent price moderation, with the July 2026 reading easing to 4.44% year-over-year—within the 1.5-4.5% target band after prior overshoots. Market forecasts via the Focus survey have edged lower to around 5.0% for year-end amid cooling food, transport, and fuel components, supported by retreating global oil prices and a high Selic rate near prior peaks. This positions the 5.00-5.49% band as the plurality outcome, while broader consensus from IMF and OECD projections near 4.3-4.4% underpins support for the 4.50-4.99% range. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming monthly CPI releases and any signals on policy easing timing.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$95,401Data di fine
12 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Brazil's 2026 IPCA inflation market reflects trader focus on the central bank's tight monetary stance and recent price moderation, with the July 2026 reading easing to 4.44% year-over-year—within the 1.5-4.5% target band after prior overshoots. Market forecasts via the Focus survey have edged lower to around 5.0% for year-end amid cooling food, transport, and fuel components, supported by retreating global oil prices and a high Selic rate near prior peaks. This positions the 5.00-5.49% band as the plurality outcome, while broader consensus from IMF and OECD projections near 4.3-4.4% underpins support for the 4.50-4.99% range. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming monthly CPI releases and any signals on policy easing timing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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