Recent disinflation in Mexico, with headline CPI easing to 3.12% year-over-year in July 2026 from 3.94% in May, underpins the leading 30.6% market-implied odds on the 3.50-3.99% annual average band. Softer non-core components, including energy and food prices, combined with a Q1 economic contraction creating slack, have accelerated the decline, while Banxico holds its policy rate at 6.50% amid upside risks from persistent core inflation near 4%. Forecasts from the central bank and consensus point to 3.7-3.8% for 2026 overall, with convergence to the 3% target not expected until 2027, leaving room for volatility from global trade policies, peso movements, and climate impacts on agriculture that widen probabilities across the 3.00-4.49% range.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMessico Inflazione annuale 2026
Messico Inflazione annuale 2026
3,50% a 3,99% 30.6%
3,00% a 3,49% 19.9%
4,00% a 4,49% 14%
4,50% a 4,99% 9%
$60,756 Vol.
$60,756 Vol.
8 gen 2027
<2,50%
1%
2,50% a 2,99%
5%
3,00% a 3,49%
20%
3,50% a 3,99%
31%
4,00% a 4,49%
14%
4,50% a 4,99%
9%
5,00% a 5,49%
7%
5,50%+
2%
3,50% a 3,99% 30.6%
3,00% a 3,49% 19.9%
4,00% a 4,49% 14%
4,50% a 4,99% 9%
$60,756 Vol.
$60,756 Vol.
8 gen 2027
<2,50%
$1,053 Vol.
1%
2,50% a 2,99%
$4,887 Vol.
5%
3,00% a 3,49%
$27,423 Vol.
20%
3,50% a 3,99%
$3,469 Vol.
31%
4,00% a 4,49%
$10,632 Vol.
14%
4,50% a 4,99%
$4,745 Vol.
9%
5,00% a 5,49%
$2,242 Vol.
7%
5,50%+
$6,305 Vol.
2%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioRecent disinflation in Mexico, with headline CPI easing to 3.12% year-over-year in July 2026 from 3.94% in May, underpins the leading 30.6% market-implied odds on the 3.50-3.99% annual average band. Softer non-core components, including energy and food prices, combined with a Q1 economic contraction creating slack, have accelerated the decline, while Banxico holds its policy rate at 6.50% amid upside risks from persistent core inflation near 4%. Forecasts from the central bank and consensus point to 3.7-3.8% for 2026 overall, with convergence to the 3% target not expected until 2027, leaving room for volatility from global trade policies, peso movements, and climate impacts on agriculture that widen probabilities across the 3.00-4.49% range.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Mercato aperto: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$60,756Data di fine
8 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioRecent disinflation in Mexico, with headline CPI easing to 3.12% year-over-year in July 2026 from 3.94% in May, underpins the leading 30.6% market-implied odds on the 3.50-3.99% annual average band. Softer non-core components, including energy and food prices, combined with a Q1 economic contraction creating slack, have accelerated the decline, while Banxico holds its policy rate at 6.50% amid upside risks from persistent core inflation near 4%. Forecasts from the central bank and consensus point to 3.7-3.8% for 2026 overall, with convergence to the 3% target not expected until 2027, leaving room for volatility from global trade policies, peso movements, and climate impacts on agriculture that widen probabilities across the 3.00-4.49% range.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volume
$60,756Data di fine
8 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent disinflation in Mexico, with headline CPI easing to 3.12% year-over-year in July 2026 from 3.94% in May, underpins the leading 30.6% market-implied odds on the 3.50-3.99% annual average band. Softer non-core components, including energy and food prices, combined with a Q1 economic contraction creating slack, have accelerated the decline, while Banxico holds its policy rate at 6.50% amid upside risks from persistent core inflation near 4%. Forecasts from the central bank and consensus point to 3.7-3.8% for 2026 overall, with convergence to the 3% target not expected until 2027, leaving room for volatility from global trade policies, peso movements, and climate impacts on agriculture that widen probabilities across the 3.00-4.49% range.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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