Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities for Mexico's 2026 annual CPI—peaking at 28.8% for 3.00%-3.49% versus 25.0% for 4.00%-4.49%—reflect uncertainty over headline inflation convergence to Banco de México's 3% target amid March 2026's acceleration to 4.59% year-over-year, driven by volatile food prices like fruits and vegetables. Core inflation rose to 4.45%, yet Banxico's split 3-2 decision to cut the policy rate 25 basis points to 6.75% on March 26 signals confidence in demand weakness and prior tightening anchoring expectations, with private-sector surveys (e.g., median 4.23% year-end forecast) tilting higher but traders pricing moderation via continued easing. Key swing factors include April 23 CPI data and May FOMC meeting; sustained core pressures or peso depreciation could favor upper bins.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMessico Inflazione annuale 2026
Messico Inflazione annuale 2026
3,50% a 3,99% 37.5%
3,00% a 3,49% 28.5%
<2,50% 22.7%
4,50% a 4,99% 19%
$34,771 Vol.
$34,771 Vol.
8 gen 2027
<2,50%
23%
2,50% a 2,99%
1%
3,00% a 3,49%
29%
3,50% a 3,99%
23%
4,00% a 4,49%
26%
4,50% a 4,99%
20%
5,00% a 5,49%
23%
5,50%+
13%
3,50% a 3,99% 37.5%
3,00% a 3,49% 28.5%
<2,50% 22.7%
4,50% a 4,99% 19%
$34,771 Vol.
$34,771 Vol.
8 gen 2027
<2,50%
$0 Vol.
23%
2,50% a 2,99%
$0 Vol.
1%
3,00% a 3,49%
$25,671 Vol.
29%
3,50% a 3,99%
$344 Vol.
23%
4,00% a 4,49%
$357 Vol.
26%
4,50% a 4,99%
$3,063 Vol.
20%
5,00% a 5,49%
$401 Vol.
23%
5,50%+
$4,935 Vol.
13%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioPolymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities for Mexico's 2026 annual CPI—peaking at 28.8% for 3.00%-3.49% versus 25.0% for 4.00%-4.49%—reflect uncertainty over headline inflation convergence to Banco de México's 3% target amid March 2026's acceleration to 4.59% year-over-year, driven by volatile food prices like fruits and vegetables. Core inflation rose to 4.45%, yet Banxico's split 3-2 decision to cut the policy rate 25 basis points to 6.75% on March 26 signals confidence in demand weakness and prior tightening anchoring expectations, with private-sector surveys (e.g., median 4.23% year-end forecast) tilting higher but traders pricing moderation via continued easing. Key swing factors include April 23 CPI data and May FOMC meeting; sustained core pressures or peso depreciation could favor upper bins.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Mercato aperto: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$34,771Data di fine
8 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioPolymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities for Mexico's 2026 annual CPI—peaking at 28.8% for 3.00%-3.49% versus 25.0% for 4.00%-4.49%—reflect uncertainty over headline inflation convergence to Banco de México's 3% target amid March 2026's acceleration to 4.59% year-over-year, driven by volatile food prices like fruits and vegetables. Core inflation rose to 4.45%, yet Banxico's split 3-2 decision to cut the policy rate 25 basis points to 6.75% on March 26 signals confidence in demand weakness and prior tightening anchoring expectations, with private-sector surveys (e.g., median 4.23% year-end forecast) tilting higher but traders pricing moderation via continued easing. Key swing factors include April 23 CPI data and May FOMC meeting; sustained core pressures or peso depreciation could favor upper bins.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volume
$34,771Data di fine
8 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities for Mexico's 2026 annual CPI—peaking at 28.8% for 3.00%-3.49% versus 25.0% for 4.00%-4.49%—reflect uncertainty over headline inflation convergence to Banco de México's 3% target amid March 2026's acceleration to 4.59% year-over-year, driven by volatile food prices like fruits and vegetables. Core inflation rose to 4.45%, yet Banxico's split 3-2 decision to cut the policy rate 25 basis points to 6.75% on March 26 signals confidence in demand weakness and prior tightening anchoring expectations, with private-sector surveys (e.g., median 4.23% year-end forecast) tilting higher but traders pricing moderation via continued easing. Key swing factors include April 23 CPI data and May FOMC meeting; sustained core pressures or peso depreciation could favor upper bins.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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