Mexico’s Q3 2026 GDP growth market reflects trader focus on subdued domestic demand and fading transitory factors after the Q2 rebound. Quarterly growth reached 1.4% in Q2, lifting the year-over-year rate to 2.1%, supported by agriculture, services, and World Cup-related activity, yet investment contracted and manufacturing remained weak. Official forecasts for full-year 2026 have been trimmed to a 1-2% range by the Ministry of Finance, with Banxico and private consensus near 1.1%, citing persistent USMCA review uncertainty, soft consumption, and lower public spending. Inflation moderating toward 3.3% headline in August and steady external demand from the U.S. provide some offset, but analysts highlight downside risks to Q3 momentum as the one-time boost dissipates. The 2.0-2.5% band leads implied odds at 43% amid these crosscurrents.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato2.0-2.5% 42%
2.5-3.0% 25%
1.0-1.5% 17.1%
1.5-2.0% 16%
$30,286 Vol.
$30,286 Vol.
30 ott 2026
<0.5%
1%
0.5-1.0%
1%
1.0-1.5%
17%
1.5-2.0%
16%
2.0-2.5%
42%
2.5-3.0%
25%
3.0-3.5%
2%
3.5%+
1%
2.0-2.5% 42%
2.5-3.0% 25%
1.0-1.5% 17.1%
1.5-2.0% 16%
$30,286 Vol.
$30,286 Vol.
30 ott 2026
<0.5%
$515 Vol.
1%
0.5-1.0%
$395 Vol.
1%
1.0-1.5%
$3,556 Vol.
17%
1.5-2.0%
$10,395 Vol.
16%
2.0-2.5%
$13,156 Vol.
42%
2.5-3.0%
$1,309 Vol.
25%
3.0-3.5%
$474 Vol.
2%
3.5%+
$485 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Mexico’s Q3 2026 GDP growth market reflects trader focus on subdued domestic demand and fading transitory factors after the Q2 rebound. Quarterly growth reached 1.4% in Q2, lifting the year-over-year rate to 2.1%, supported by agriculture, services, and World Cup-related activity, yet investment contracted and manufacturing remained weak. Official forecasts for full-year 2026 have been trimmed to a 1-2% range by the Ministry of Finance, with Banxico and private consensus near 1.1%, citing persistent USMCA review uncertainty, soft consumption, and lower public spending. Inflation moderating toward 3.3% headline in August and steady external demand from the U.S. provide some offset, but analysts highlight downside risks to Q3 momentum as the one-time boost dissipates. The 2.0-2.5% band leads implied odds at 43% amid these crosscurrents.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$30,286Data di fine
30 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Mexico’s Q3 2026 GDP growth market reflects trader focus on subdued domestic demand and fading transitory factors after the Q2 rebound. Quarterly growth reached 1.4% in Q2, lifting the year-over-year rate to 2.1%, supported by agriculture, services, and World Cup-related activity, yet investment contracted and manufacturing remained weak. Official forecasts for full-year 2026 have been trimmed to a 1-2% range by the Ministry of Finance, with Banxico and private consensus near 1.1%, citing persistent USMCA review uncertainty, soft consumption, and lower public spending. Inflation moderating toward 3.3% headline in August and steady external demand from the U.S. provide some offset, but analysts highlight downside risks to Q3 momentum as the one-time boost dissipates. The 2.0-2.5% band leads implied odds at 43% amid these crosscurrents.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$30,286Data di fine
30 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Mexico’s Q3 2026 GDP growth market reflects trader focus on subdued domestic demand and fading transitory factors after the Q2 rebound. Quarterly growth reached 1.4% in Q2, lifting the year-over-year rate to 2.1%, supported by agriculture, services, and World Cup-related activity, yet investment contracted and manufacturing remained weak. Official forecasts for full-year 2026 have been trimmed to a 1-2% range by the Ministry of Finance, with Banxico and private consensus near 1.1%, citing persistent USMCA review uncertainty, soft consumption, and lower public spending. Inflation moderating toward 3.3% headline in August and steady external demand from the U.S. provide some offset, but analysts highlight downside risks to Q3 momentum as the one-time boost dissipates. The 2.0-2.5% band leads implied odds at 43% amid these crosscurrents.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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