Trader sentiment on 2026 U.S. real GDP growth favors the >2.5% outcome at 46.5% implied probability, reflecting expectations that fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act—via tax cuts and full expensing of capital investments—will boost consumer spending and private investment enough to lift full-year growth above consensus forecasts. Q1 2026 GDP expanded at a 1.6% annualized rate per the BEA second estimate, rebounding from 0.5% in Q4 2025 amid exports and fixed investment, though professional forecasters in the Philadelphia Fed’s Q2 survey project 2.2% annual-average growth. Offsetting pressures from higher tariffs, reduced immigration, and Middle East-related energy price shocks have tempered some estimates but not erased upside risks priced into the market-implied distribution.