Trader sentiment for 2026 U.S. real GDP growth remains closely divided between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% brackets, reflecting uncertainty over whether AI-related capital spending can fully offset moderating consumer outlays and energy-price pressures. Recent data show Q2 growth at a 1.5% annualized rate, with Q3 tracking toward 3% on resilient spending and business investment, while consensus forecasts from the IMF, FOMC median projections, and private economists cluster around 2.0–2.3%. Elevated headline inflation near 3.2–3.7%, driven by energy and core goods, supports a tighter policy stance that could weigh on activity. Geopolitical risks around oil supply add downside potential, whereas sustained productivity gains from AI infrastructure represent the key upside swing factor into year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCrescita del PIL nel 2026
Crescita del PIL nel 2026
2,0–2,5% 47%
1,5–2,0% 45.1%
>2,5% 7.1%
<0,5% 3.3%
$60,430 Vol.
$60,430 Vol.
28 gen 2027
<0,5%
3%
0,5–1,0%
1%
1,0–1,5%
2%
1,5–2,0%
45%
2,0–2,5%
47%
>2,5%
7%
2,0–2,5% 47%
1,5–2,0% 45.1%
>2,5% 7.1%
<0,5% 3.3%
$60,430 Vol.
$60,430 Vol.
28 gen 2027
<0,5%
$7,649 Vol.
3%
0,5–1,0%
$17,357 Vol.
1%
1,0–1,5%
$3,941 Vol.
2%
1,5–2,0%
$7,520 Vol.
45%
2,0–2,5%
$7,845 Vol.
47%
>2,5%
$16,119 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment for 2026 U.S. real GDP growth remains closely divided between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% brackets, reflecting uncertainty over whether AI-related capital spending can fully offset moderating consumer outlays and energy-price pressures. Recent data show Q2 growth at a 1.5% annualized rate, with Q3 tracking toward 3% on resilient spending and business investment, while consensus forecasts from the IMF, FOMC median projections, and private economists cluster around 2.0–2.3%. Elevated headline inflation near 3.2–3.7%, driven by energy and core goods, supports a tighter policy stance that could weigh on activity. Geopolitical risks around oil supply add downside potential, whereas sustained productivity gains from AI infrastructure represent the key upside swing factor into year-end.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Volume
$60,430Data di fine
29 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment for 2026 U.S. real GDP growth remains closely divided between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% brackets, reflecting uncertainty over whether AI-related capital spending can fully offset moderating consumer outlays and energy-price pressures. Recent data show Q2 growth at a 1.5% annualized rate, with Q3 tracking toward 3% on resilient spending and business investment, while consensus forecasts from the IMF, FOMC median projections, and private economists cluster around 2.0–2.3%. Elevated headline inflation near 3.2–3.7%, driven by energy and core goods, supports a tighter policy stance that could weigh on activity. Geopolitical risks around oil supply add downside potential, whereas sustained productivity gains from AI infrastructure represent the key upside swing factor into year-end.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$60,430Data di fine
29 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment for 2026 U.S. real GDP growth remains closely divided between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% brackets, reflecting uncertainty over whether AI-related capital spending can fully offset moderating consumer outlays and energy-price pressures. Recent data show Q2 growth at a 1.5% annualized rate, with Q3 tracking toward 3% on resilient spending and business investment, while consensus forecasts from the IMF, FOMC median projections, and private economists cluster around 2.0–2.3%. Elevated headline inflation near 3.2–3.7%, driven by energy and core goods, supports a tighter policy stance that could weigh on activity. Geopolitical risks around oil supply add downside potential, whereas sustained productivity gains from AI infrastructure represent the key upside swing factor into year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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