Elevated inflation readings near 3.8% year-over-year in April 2026, driven by supply shocks from Middle East tensions and tariff effects, combined with a stable labor market at 4.3% unemployment, underpin the 92% market-implied odds for Pause–Pause–Pause across the April, June, and July FOMC meetings. The Federal Reserve maintained its 3.50–3.75% target range in April, with policymakers signaling attentiveness to dual-mandate risks amid anchored longer-term expectations. Derivatives markets now price out near-term easing for the balance of 2026. A cooler-than-expected June CPI release or sharper labor-market softening could still open the door to a July cut, though current data trajectories favor continued holds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPause–Pause–Pause 92%
Other 3.0%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.4%
$52,571 Vol.
$52,571 Vol.
Pause–Pause–Pause
92%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause 92%
Other 3.0%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.4%
$52,571 Vol.
$52,571 Vol.
Pause–Pause–Pause
92%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
3%
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercato aperto: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings near 3.8% year-over-year in April 2026, driven by supply shocks from Middle East tensions and tariff effects, combined with a stable labor market at 4.3% unemployment, underpin the 92% market-implied odds for Pause–Pause–Pause across the April, June, and July FOMC meetings. The Federal Reserve maintained its 3.50–3.75% target range in April, with policymakers signaling attentiveness to dual-mandate risks amid anchored longer-term expectations. Derivatives markets now price out near-term easing for the balance of 2026. A cooler-than-expected June CPI release or sharper labor-market softening could still open the door to a July cut, though current data trajectories favor continued holds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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