Recent inflation readings near 3.5% year-over-year, a resilient labor market with unemployment around 4.2%, and solid economic growth have anchored trader expectations for no policy changes at the June and July FOMC meetings. The July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% passed on a 9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, highlighting divisions that keep the “Other” outcome—potentially including September tightening—nearly even with Pause–Pause–Pause at 51% versus 46%. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty ahead of the September 15–16 meeting and associated dot plot, where persistent price pressures above the 2% target and energy-price volatility could shift consensus toward tighter policy despite the current pause streak.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPause–Pause–Pause 51%
Other 46%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$676,362 Vol.
$676,362 Vol.
16 set 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
51%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
46%
Pause–Pause–Pause 51%
Other 46%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$676,362 Vol.
$676,362 Vol.
16 set 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$269,858 Vol.
51%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$59,051 Vol.
1%
Other
$291,577 Vol.
46%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation readings near 3.5% year-over-year, a resilient labor market with unemployment around 4.2%, and solid economic growth have anchored trader expectations for no policy changes at the June and July FOMC meetings. The July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% passed on a 9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, highlighting divisions that keep the “Other” outcome—potentially including September tightening—nearly even with Pause–Pause–Pause at 51% versus 46%. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty ahead of the September 15–16 meeting and associated dot plot, where persistent price pressures above the 2% target and energy-price volatility could shift consensus toward tighter policy despite the current pause streak.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercato aperto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$676,362Data di fine
16 set 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation readings near 3.5% year-over-year, a resilient labor market with unemployment around 4.2%, and solid economic growth have anchored trader expectations for no policy changes at the June and July FOMC meetings. The July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% passed on a 9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, highlighting divisions that keep the “Other” outcome—potentially including September tightening—nearly even with Pause–Pause–Pause at 51% versus 46%. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty ahead of the September 15–16 meeting and associated dot plot, where persistent price pressures above the 2% target and energy-price volatility could shift consensus toward tighter policy despite the current pause streak.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$676,362Data di fine
16 set 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation readings near 3.5% year-over-year, a resilient labor market with unemployment around 4.2%, and solid economic growth have anchored trader expectations for no policy changes at the June and July FOMC meetings. The July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% passed on a 9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, highlighting divisions that keep the “Other” outcome—potentially including September tightening—nearly even with Pause–Pause–Pause at 51% versus 46%. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty ahead of the September 15–16 meeting and associated dot plot, where persistent price pressures above the 2% target and energy-price volatility could shift consensus toward tighter policy despite the current pause streak.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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