Recent July FOMC data and a 9-3 vote to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75% underpin the near-even split between Pause–Pause–Pause and Other sequences for the June-July-September meetings. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, energy price volatility, and three dissents favoring a quarter-point hike have elevated the odds of a September tightening, while solid labor market conditions and softer June CPI prints support the case for steady policy. Trader consensus, reflected in the slim 51% implied probability for three consecutive pauses, hinges on the August CPI release and September 15-16 meeting, where incoming inflation and employment figures will determine whether the Committee shifts from its current restrictive stance.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPause–Pause–Pause 51%
Other 48%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$676,331 Vol.
$676,331 Vol.
16 set 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
51%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
48%
Pause–Pause–Pause 51%
Other 48%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$676,331 Vol.
$676,331 Vol.
16 set 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$269,833 Vol.
51%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$59,046 Vol.
1%
Other
$291,576 Vol.
48%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent July FOMC data and a 9-3 vote to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75% underpin the near-even split between Pause–Pause–Pause and Other sequences for the June-July-September meetings. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, energy price volatility, and three dissents favoring a quarter-point hike have elevated the odds of a September tightening, while solid labor market conditions and softer June CPI prints support the case for steady policy. Trader consensus, reflected in the slim 51% implied probability for three consecutive pauses, hinges on the August CPI release and September 15-16 meeting, where incoming inflation and employment figures will determine whether the Committee shifts from its current restrictive stance.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercato aperto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$676,331Data di fine
16 set 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent July FOMC data and a 9-3 vote to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75% underpin the near-even split between Pause–Pause–Pause and Other sequences for the June-July-September meetings. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, energy price volatility, and three dissents favoring a quarter-point hike have elevated the odds of a September tightening, while solid labor market conditions and softer June CPI prints support the case for steady policy. Trader consensus, reflected in the slim 51% implied probability for three consecutive pauses, hinges on the August CPI release and September 15-16 meeting, where incoming inflation and employment figures will determine whether the Committee shifts from its current restrictive stance.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$676,331Data di fine
16 set 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July FOMC data and a 9-3 vote to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75% underpin the near-even split between Pause–Pause–Pause and Other sequences for the June-July-September meetings. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, energy price volatility, and three dissents favoring a quarter-point hike have elevated the odds of a September tightening, while solid labor market conditions and softer June CPI prints support the case for steady policy. Trader consensus, reflected in the slim 51% implied probability for three consecutive pauses, hinges on the August CPI release and September 15-16 meeting, where incoming inflation and employment figures will determine whether the Committee shifts from its current restrictive stance.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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