Traders assign Pause–Pause–Pause the highest implied probability at 55.5% for the June-through-September FOMC cycle because the June 17 decision held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% amid elevated PCE inflation now projected at 3.6% for 2026 and a solid labor market. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting produced median dot-plot projections lifting the 2026 endpoint to 3.8%, with nine officials eyeing at least one hike, reinforcing expectations of continued pauses in July and September. The 39% “Other” bucket captures residual hike risk while the low probabilities on any cut sequence reflect limited scope for easing before year-end absent rapid disinflation. Upcoming July data releases and the September SEP will serve as key swing factors.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPause–Pause–Pause 61%
Other 29%
Pause–Cut–Cut 2.1%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.0%
$10,498 Vol.
$10,498 Vol.
16 set 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
55%
Pause–Pause–Cut
16%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
2%
Other
35%
Pause–Pause–Pause 61%
Other 29%
Pause–Cut–Cut 2.1%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.0%
$10,498 Vol.
$10,498 Vol.
16 set 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$1,286 Vol.
55%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$460 Vol.
16%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$255 Vol.
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$487 Vol.
2%
Other
$359 Vol.
35%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders assign Pause–Pause–Pause the highest implied probability at 55.5% for the June-through-September FOMC cycle because the June 17 decision held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% amid elevated PCE inflation now projected at 3.6% for 2026 and a solid labor market. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting produced median dot-plot projections lifting the 2026 endpoint to 3.8%, with nine officials eyeing at least one hike, reinforcing expectations of continued pauses in July and September. The 39% “Other” bucket captures residual hike risk while the low probabilities on any cut sequence reflect limited scope for easing before year-end absent rapid disinflation. Upcoming July data releases and the September SEP will serve as key swing factors.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercato aperto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$10,498Data di fine
16 set 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders assign Pause–Pause–Pause the highest implied probability at 55.5% for the June-through-September FOMC cycle because the June 17 decision held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% amid elevated PCE inflation now projected at 3.6% for 2026 and a solid labor market. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting produced median dot-plot projections lifting the 2026 endpoint to 3.8%, with nine officials eyeing at least one hike, reinforcing expectations of continued pauses in July and September. The 39% “Other” bucket captures residual hike risk while the low probabilities on any cut sequence reflect limited scope for easing before year-end absent rapid disinflation. Upcoming July data releases and the September SEP will serve as key swing factors.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$10,498Data di fine
16 set 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign Pause–Pause–Pause the highest implied probability at 55.5% for the June-through-September FOMC cycle because the June 17 decision held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% amid elevated PCE inflation now projected at 3.6% for 2026 and a solid labor market. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting produced median dot-plot projections lifting the 2026 endpoint to 3.8%, with nine officials eyeing at least one hike, reinforcing expectations of continued pauses in July and September. The 39% “Other” bucket captures residual hike risk while the low probabilities on any cut sequence reflect limited scope for easing before year-end absent rapid disinflation. Upcoming July data releases and the September SEP will serve as key swing factors.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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