Elevated August 2026 CPI readings, with headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.4%, alongside a resilient labor market showing 4.1% unemployment and 162,000 job gains, have driven Polymarket traders to assign 55.5% odds to a 25 basis point federal funds rate hike at the December FOMC. Recent hawkish signals from the new Fed leadership, including revised dot-plot medians projecting a 3.8% end-2026 rate, reflect concerns over persistent price pressures from energy and tariffs outweighing the case for steady policy. This positioning leaves no-change odds at 39.5%, with only marginal probabilities for larger moves. The September FOMC meeting and subsequent data releases on inflation and employment remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these implied probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato25 bps increase 56%
Nessun cambiamento 40%
50+ bps increase 4.5%
25 bps decrease 3.5%
$687,529 Vol.
$687,529 Vol.
9 dic 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
3%
Nessun cambiamento
40%
25 bps increase
56%
50+ bps increase
4%
25 bps increase 56%
Nessun cambiamento 40%
50+ bps increase 4.5%
25 bps decrease 3.5%
$687,529 Vol.
$687,529 Vol.
9 dic 2026
50+ bps decrease
$102,808 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$155,970 Vol.
3%
Nessun cambiamento
$136,748 Vol.
40%
25 bps increase
$187,201 Vol.
56%
50+ bps increase
$104,802 Vol.
4%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated August 2026 CPI readings, with headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.4%, alongside a resilient labor market showing 4.1% unemployment and 162,000 job gains, have driven Polymarket traders to assign 55.5% odds to a 25 basis point federal funds rate hike at the December FOMC. Recent hawkish signals from the new Fed leadership, including revised dot-plot medians projecting a 3.8% end-2026 rate, reflect concerns over persistent price pressures from energy and tariffs outweighing the case for steady policy. This positioning leaves no-change odds at 39.5%, with only marginal probabilities for larger moves. The September FOMC meeting and subsequent data releases on inflation and employment remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these implied probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volume
$687,529Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated August 2026 CPI readings, with headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.4%, alongside a resilient labor market showing 4.1% unemployment and 162,000 job gains, have driven Polymarket traders to assign 55.5% odds to a 25 basis point federal funds rate hike at the December FOMC. Recent hawkish signals from the new Fed leadership, including revised dot-plot medians projecting a 3.8% end-2026 rate, reflect concerns over persistent price pressures from energy and tariffs outweighing the case for steady policy. This positioning leaves no-change odds at 39.5%, with only marginal probabilities for larger moves. The September FOMC meeting and subsequent data releases on inflation and employment remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these implied probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$687,529Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Elevated August 2026 CPI readings, with headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.4%, alongside a resilient labor market showing 4.1% unemployment and 162,000 job gains, have driven Polymarket traders to assign 55.5% odds to a 25 basis point federal funds rate hike at the December FOMC. Recent hawkish signals from the new Fed leadership, including revised dot-plot medians projecting a 3.8% end-2026 rate, reflect concerns over persistent price pressures from energy and tariffs outweighing the case for steady policy. This positioning leaves no-change odds at 39.5%, with only marginal probabilities for larger moves. The September FOMC meeting and subsequent data releases on inflation and employment remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these implied probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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