Polymarket traders price a tight race for the federal funds rate at end-2026, with 36% implied probability on 3.5% edging 31.3% on 3.75%, reflecting uncertainty over further easing from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range amid sticky inflation and resilient labor markets. The March 18 FOMC dot plot median held at 3.4%, signaling one 25-basis-point cut, but March CPI surged to 3.3% annually—the highest since mid-2024—while core PCE stayed near 3%, prompting a cautious pause after two holds. Geopolitical tensions, including elevated oil from Iran conflicts, cloud the outlook, with trader consensus weighing April nonfarm payrolls and May FOMC for cut timing amid balanced growth risks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato3,5% 36%
3,75% 31.3%
3,25% 10%
4,0% 6.0%
$6,289,484 Vol.
$6,289,484 Vol.
9 dic 2026
≤1,0%
2%
1,25
3%
1,5%
1%
1,75%
1%
2,0%
1%
2,25%
1%
2,5%
1%
2,75%
3%
3,0%
3%
3,25%
10%
3,5%
36%
3,75%
31%
4,0%
6%
4,25%
3%
≥ 4,5%
3%
3,5% 36%
3,75% 31.3%
3,25% 10%
4,0% 6.0%
$6,289,484 Vol.
$6,289,484 Vol.
9 dic 2026
≤1,0%
$211,750 Vol.
2%
1,25
$111,883 Vol.
3%
1,5%
$124,692 Vol.
1%
1,75%
$125,251 Vol.
1%
2,0%
$173,937 Vol.
1%
2,25%
$63,475 Vol.
1%
2,5%
$152,868 Vol.
1%
2,75%
$25,542 Vol.
3%
3,0%
$439,632 Vol.
3%
3,25%
$41,365 Vol.
10%
3,5%
$183,041 Vol.
36%
3,75%
$496,629 Vol.
31%
4,0%
$1,345,239 Vol.
6%
4,25%
$406,531 Vol.
3%
≥ 4,5%
$2,389,304 Vol.
3%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Polymarket traders price a tight race for the federal funds rate at end-2026, with 36% implied probability on 3.5% edging 31.3% on 3.75%, reflecting uncertainty over further easing from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range amid sticky inflation and resilient labor markets. The March 18 FOMC dot plot median held at 3.4%, signaling one 25-basis-point cut, but March CPI surged to 3.3% annually—the highest since mid-2024—while core PCE stayed near 3%, prompting a cautious pause after two holds. Geopolitical tensions, including elevated oil from Iran conflicts, cloud the outlook, with trader consensus weighing April nonfarm payrolls and May FOMC for cut timing amid balanced growth risks.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Mercato aperto: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Volume
$6,289,484Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Polymarket traders price a tight race for the federal funds rate at end-2026, with 36% implied probability on 3.5% edging 31.3% on 3.75%, reflecting uncertainty over further easing from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range amid sticky inflation and resilient labor markets. The March 18 FOMC dot plot median held at 3.4%, signaling one 25-basis-point cut, but March CPI surged to 3.3% annually—the highest since mid-2024—while core PCE stayed near 3%, prompting a cautious pause after two holds. Geopolitical tensions, including elevated oil from Iran conflicts, cloud the outlook, with trader consensus weighing April nonfarm payrolls and May FOMC for cut timing amid balanced growth risks.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Volume
$6,289,484Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a tight race for the federal funds rate at end-2026, with 36% implied probability on 3.5% edging 31.3% on 3.75%, reflecting uncertainty over further easing from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range amid sticky inflation and resilient labor markets. The March 18 FOMC dot plot median held at 3.4%, signaling one 25-basis-point cut, but March CPI surged to 3.3% annually—the highest since mid-2024—while core PCE stayed near 3%, prompting a cautious pause after two holds. Geopolitical tensions, including elevated oil from Iran conflicts, cloud the outlook, with trader consensus weighing April nonfarm payrolls and May FOMC for cut timing amid balanced growth risks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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