Polymarket traders price a 99.1% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, with the target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% following the March hold. This strong consensus stems from March FOMC minutes released April 8, where officials raised inflation forecasts due to war-related oil shocks but maintained expectations for cuts later in 2026, viewing the energy-driven CPI surge to 3.3% year-over-year as transitory. Solid March nonfarm payrolls of 178,000 further support a balanced labor market without overheating pressures. Realistic challenges include escalating geopolitical tensions spiking energy prices further or unexpectedly hot pre-meeting data like retail sales, though no major releases precede the decision.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoDecisione della Fed ad aprile?
Decisione della Fed ad aprile?
Nessun cambiamento 99.0%
Riduzione di 25 punti base <1%
Aumento di oltre 25 punti base <1%
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base <1%
$96,047,871 Vol.
$96,047,871 Vol.
29 apr 2026
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
<1%
Riduzione di 25 punti base
<1%
Nessun cambiamento
99%
Aumento di oltre 25 punti base
<1%
Nessun cambiamento 99.0%
Riduzione di 25 punti base <1%
Aumento di oltre 25 punti base <1%
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base <1%
$96,047,871 Vol.
$96,047,871 Vol.
29 apr 2026
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
$35,070,943 Vol.
<1%
Riduzione di 25 punti base
$19,536,220 Vol.
<1%
Nessun cambiamento
$19,449,344 Vol.
99%
Aumento di oltre 25 punti base
$22,003,337 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 99.1% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, with the target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% following the March hold. This strong consensus stems from March FOMC minutes released April 8, where officials raised inflation forecasts due to war-related oil shocks but maintained expectations for cuts later in 2026, viewing the energy-driven CPI surge to 3.3% year-over-year as transitory. Solid March nonfarm payrolls of 178,000 further support a balanced labor market without overheating pressures. Realistic challenges include escalating geopolitical tensions spiking energy prices further or unexpectedly hot pre-meeting data like retail sales, though no major releases precede the decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Volume
$96,047,871Data di fine
29 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 99.1% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, with the target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% following the March hold. This strong consensus stems from March FOMC minutes released April 8, where officials raised inflation forecasts due to war-related oil shocks but maintained expectations for cuts later in 2026, viewing the energy-driven CPI surge to 3.3% year-over-year as transitory. Solid March nonfarm payrolls of 178,000 further support a balanced labor market without overheating pressures. Realistic challenges include escalating geopolitical tensions spiking energy prices further or unexpectedly hot pre-meeting data like retail sales, though no major releases precede the decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$96,047,871Data di fine
29 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 99.1% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, with the target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% following the March hold. This strong consensus stems from March FOMC minutes released April 8, where officials raised inflation forecasts due to war-related oil shocks but maintained expectations for cuts later in 2026, viewing the energy-driven CPI surge to 3.3% year-over-year as transitory. Solid March nonfarm payrolls of 178,000 further support a balanced labor market without overheating pressures. Realistic challenges include escalating geopolitical tensions spiking energy prices further or unexpectedly hot pre-meeting data like retail sales, though no major releases precede the decision.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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