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Economy·Jerome Powell

Quale sarà il tasso della Fed prima del 2027?

Market icon
Economy·Jerome Powell

Quale sarà il tasso della Fed prima del 2027?

$1,328,134 Vol.

31 dic 2026
Polymarket

$1,328,134 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ 5,5%

$43,854 Vol.

7%

↑ 5,25%

$138,878 Vol.

5%

↑ 5,0%

$11,637 Vol.

4%

↑ 4,75%

$68,492 Vol.

6%

↑ 4,5%

$13,790 Vol.

6%

↑ 4,25%

$22,844 Vol.

9%

↓ 3,25%

$56,281 Vol.

66%

↓ 3,0%

$223,466 Vol.

25%

↓ 2,75%

$265,518 Vol.

17%

↓ 2,5%

$176,295 Vol.

13%

↓ 2,25%

$23,035 Vol.

8%

↓ 2,0%

$15,119 Vol.

9%

↓ 1,75%

$7,388 Vol.

7%

↓ 1,5%

$24,878 Vol.

7%

↓ 1,25%

$899 Vol.

10%

↓ 1,0%

$1,761 Vol.

9%

↓ 0,75%

$388 Vol.

8%

↓ 0,5%

$94,815 Vol.

4%

↓ 0,25%

$119,043 Vol.

5%

↓ 0%

$10,745 Vol.

4%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.March consumer price index surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs and unemployment held at 4.3%, signaling persistent inflationary pressures and labor market resilience that have tempered aggressive rate cut expectations. FOMC March minutes revealed growing openness to hikes amid war-related oil shocks elevating the 2026 inflation outlook, yet the dot plot projects a median federal funds rate of 3.4% by end-2026 and 3.1% by end-2027, implying gradual easing from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range. With 2-year Treasury yields near 3.8%, futures imply a steady path; traders eye the April 28-29 meeting—94% priced for no change—and upcoming CPI data as key catalysts shaping the path to lower rates before year-end.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Volume
$1,328,134
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.March consumer price index surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs and unemployment held at 4.3%, signaling persistent inflationary pressures and labor market resilience that have tempered aggressive rate cut expectations. FOMC March minutes revealed growing openness to hikes amid war-related oil shocks elevating the 2026 inflation outlook, yet the dot plot projects a median federal funds rate of 3.4% by end-2026 and 3.1% by end-2027, implying gradual easing from the current 3.50%-3.75% target range. With 2-year Treasury yields near 3.8%, futures imply a steady path; traders eye the April 28-29 meeting—94% priced for no change—and upcoming CPI data as key catalysts shaping the path to lower rates before year-end.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Volume
$1,328,134
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

Fai attenzione ai link esterni.

Domande frequenti

"Quale sarà il tasso della Fed prima del 2027?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 21 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "↓ 3,5%" a 100%, seguito da "↓ 3,25%" a 66%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 100¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 100% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Quale sarà il tasso della Fed prima del 2027?" ha generato $1.3 million in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Nov 18, 2025. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Quale sarà il tasso della Fed prima del 2027?", esplora i 21 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Quale sarà il tasso della Fed prima del 2027?" è "↓ 3,5%" a 100%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 100% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "↓ 3,25%" a 66%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Quale sarà il tasso della Fed prima del 2027?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.