**Elevated inflation and a hawkish FOMC stance are anchoring trader expectations for zero federal funds rate cuts in 2026.** As of mid-August 2026, the Fed has held the target range steady at 3.50–3.75% following its July meeting, with the June dot plot showing a median year-end 2026 projection of 3.75–4.00% and multiple participants penciling in at least one 25 bp hike. July CPI came in at 3.4% year-over-year (down slightly from 3.5% in June but well above the 2% target), while core CPI eased to 2.5%; energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions have kept headline readings sticky. Markets have shifted from early-2026 cut expectations to pricing in possible hikes or a prolonged pause, consistent with the 86% implied probability of zero cuts for the full year. Upcoming catalysts include the September 11 CPI release and subsequent FOMC meetings, which will test whether inflation continues moderating or reaccelerates.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoJ.P. Morgan Global Research sees Fed hiking rates in December 2026 amid inflation concerns
0 (0 bps) rises to 86%1%
J.P. Morgan Global Research forecasted a potential rate hike in December 2026 due to reaccelerating inflation and the Fed's lack of a clear plan to address price pressures, which kept market expectations for rate cuts low during the analysis window.
FOMC holds rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% amid three dissents for hike
0 (0 bps) jumps to 85%7%
In July 2026, the Federal Reserve voted 9-3 to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%. Three regional Fed presidents dissented, preferring a 25 basis point rate hike due to inflation concerns. Despite the dissent, no rate cuts occurred, and the Committee maintained its current stance.
Fed maintains rates at 3.5%-3.75% in July implementation note
0 (0 bps) jumps to 84%5%
On July 29, 2026, the Federal Reserve announced decisions to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65 percent and to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged. This reinforced market expectations of no immediate rate cuts during mid-2026.
Federal Reserve maintains rates and operational stance at July meeting
0 (0 bps) jumps to 88%7%
On July 29, 2026, the Federal Reserve Board voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65%, continuing the target range of 3.50%-3.75%. The Fed also directed open market operations to maintain ample reserves, signaling no immediate rate cuts and reinforcing a cautious monetary policy stance.
Fed again holds rates steady, maintains interest on reserves at 3.65%
0 (0 bps) jumps to 85%6%
In July, the Fed continued its steady policy stance, maintaining the target range and interest on reserves, reinforcing market expectations of no rate cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% in July meeting with divided vote
0 (0 bps) jumps to 86%6%
The July FOMC meeting resulted in a 9-3 vote to keep rates unchanged, with three officials favoring a hike. Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized a "higher-for-longer" stance, signaling no imminent rate cuts and reinforcing market expectations for steady rates through 2026.
FOMC votes to maintain federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% amid inflation concerns and economic growth
0 (0 bps) jumps to 86%8%
The Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep rates unchanged, citing solid economic expansion and elevated inflation partly due to energy prices. The decision, supported by a 9-3 vote, reinforced market expectations of minimal or no rate cuts in 2026, sustaining the high price for zero cuts.
Federal Reserve holds rates at 3.50%-3.75% in July 2026, no cuts made
0 (0 bps) jumps to 90%10%
At the July meeting, the Fed maintained the target range citing tighter financial conditions and elevated inflation, with Chair Kevin Warsh reiterating the 2% inflation target. Market expectations shifted strongly toward zero cuts for the remainder of 2026.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in July 2026
0 (0 bps) rises to 80%2%
The Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% during its July meeting, emphasizing the importance of restoring price stability and maintaining the 2% inflation target. This decision and accompanying statements led markets to price in no rate cuts for 2026 at that time.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizes commitment to price stability after July meeting
0 (0 bps) rises to 83%3%
Chair Warsh reiterated the Fed's focus on achieving a 2% inflation target and stated that the July rate hold was just the beginning of the policy story, signaling no immediate cuts but maintaining vigilance on inflation data. This reinforced market expectations of no rate cuts in 2026.
Three Fed officials dissent, favoring rate hikes amid inflation concerns
0 (0 bps) rises to 84%1%
During the July 2026 FOMC meeting, three officials dissented, preferring a 25 basis point rate hike due to persistent inflation, highlighting internal Fed divisions but not resulting in immediate rate changes. This dissent underscored the cautious stance and contributed to market pricing favoring no cuts in 2026.
Fed holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% for fifth consecutive meeting amid inflation pressures
0 (0 bps) jumps to 84%7%
The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% for the fifth meeting in a row, with three officials dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point hike. Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized ongoing inflationary pressures and committed to continued press conferences. Markets reacted with bond yields rising and stocks falling.
Fed holds rates steady under new Chair Kevin Warsh, hawkish projections persist
0 (0 bps) rises to 84%4%
The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in late July 2026, with the new Chair Kevin Warsh overseeing a hawkish Summary of Economic Projections showing a median year-end rate of 3.8%. Market pricing indicated very low probability of cuts, signaling skepticism about easing in 2026.
FOMC keeps rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in July meeting
0 (0 bps) jumps to 85%6%
The Fed held the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% in July 2026, continuing its cautious stance amid mixed economic signals and inflation concerns, with no immediate rate cuts implemented.
FOMC meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 with rate decision pending
0 (0 bps) jumps to 85%8%
The Federal Reserve's July 28-29, 2026 meeting is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision on July 29. As of mid-2026, the Fed has held rates steady with market expectations for limited or no cuts in the near term, reflecting ongoing uncertainty and divided views among policymakers.
Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% with dissenting votes for hike
0 (0 bps) rises to 86%1%
At the July 29 FOMC meeting, the Fed held rates steady despite three dissenting votes favoring a hike, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation and financial conditions. The decision maintained market expectations of no rate cuts in 2026.
Fed keeps rates steady at 3.5-3.75% in July implementation note
0 (0 bps) jumps to 85%7%
The Federal Reserve again maintained the interest rate on reserve balances and the federal funds rate target range, signaling no rate cuts as of late July 2026.
Federal Reserve maintains interest rates at 3.5%–3.75% with dissenters
0 (0 bps) jumps to 84%6%
At the July meeting, the Fed again held rates steady, with three dissenters preferring either a cut or an easing bias. Chair Warsh emphasized a 'higher-for-longer' stance, signaling no rate cuts in 2026 despite some internal disagreement.
Fed maintains interest rate paid on reserve balances and target range at July meeting
0 (0 bps) jumps to 89%11%
At the July 29 meeting, the Federal Reserve again maintained the interest rate on reserve balances and the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, signaling no rate cuts in the near term. This solidified market expectations for zero cuts in 2026, reflected in the price reaching 89%.
Federal Reserve keeps rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% in July meeting
0 (0 bps) jumps to 85%7%
The Fed voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, continuing its cautious approach amid mixed economic signals. The decision indicated no rate cuts had occurred by mid-2026, reinforcing market expectations for minimal easing this year.
Federal Reserve Maintains Interest Rate at 3.5%-3.75% in July Implementation Note
0 (0 bps) jumps to 83%5%
On July 29, 2026, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65 percent and directed the Open Market Desk to continue operations to keep the federal funds rate in the 3.5% to 3.75% range, signaling no immediate rate cuts or hikes.
Federal Reserve Implementation Note confirms steady rates and operational policy
The Fed's implementation note reiterated the maintenance of the federal funds rate target range and operational tools to support this stance, confirming no rate cuts or hikes at the July meeting.
FOMC maintains federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75% amid ongoing economic uncertainty
At the July 28-29 meeting, the Federal Reserve again held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75%, reflecting continued caution due to inflation concerns and geopolitical risks. The Fed announced task forces to examine monetary policy conduct but did not signal imminent rate cuts.
FOMC holds federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% for fifth consecutive meeting
0 (0 bps) dips to 79%3%
The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, with the majority of officials expecting rates to remain higher for longer, signaling limited rate cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in July 2026 meeting
At the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, the Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, citing elevated inflation and a resilient labor market. Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized the importance of restoring Fed credibility and maintaining the 2% inflation target, which led markets to price in a high probability of no cuts in 2026.
Market prices peak at 85% for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026
0 (0 bps) jumps to 85%6%
By late July 2026, market prices for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 reached a high of 85%, reflecting broad consensus that the Fed would not cut rates during the year, influenced by persistent inflation and cautious Fed communications.
Fed Beige Book reports moderate economic growth and persistent cost pressures
0 (0 bps) rises to 85%1%
The July 16 Beige Book showed moderate growth in most districts and ongoing price pressures from energy and raw materials, supporting the Fed's cautious stance and reducing market expectations for rate cuts in 2026.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook signals inflation risks and readiness to act, lowering odds of near-term rate cuts
0 (0 bps) rises to 84%2%
Governor Cook's speech highlighted inflation risks and the Fed's preparedness to maintain or tighten policy rather than cut rates soon. This reinforced market sentiment against rate cuts in 2026, reflected in rising prices for the zero cuts outcome.
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook signals caution on rate cuts amid inflation risks
0 (0 bps) rises to 81%3%
In a speech on July 15, 2026, Fed Governor Lisa Cook emphasized ongoing inflation pressures driven by energy prices and AI-related cost increases, signaling a reluctance to cut rates soon. This reinforced market expectations for no rate cuts in 2026, contributing to the rise in the zero cuts outcome.
Fed Chairman Warsh Presents Monetary Policy Report to Senate
0 (0 bps) rises to 80%2%
Chairman Kevin Warsh presented the semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Senate, outlining the Fed's cautious outlook and the importance of monitoring economic conditions. This report reinforced the Fed's commitment to a data-driven approach and the likelihood of maintaining current rates in the near term.
Market pricing shows low probability of emergency Fed rate cuts in 2026
0 (0 bps) rises to 86%1%
Traders assigned a 94% probability to no emergency Federal Reserve rate cuts before 2027, reflecting solid economic expansion and easing inflation. This consensus reduced market expectations for multiple cuts in 2026 and supported the dominant zero cuts outcome.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals data-dependent approach, no forward guidance on rate cuts
0 (0 bps) jumps to 85%8%
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized reacting to incoming data rather than providing forward guidance, increasing uncertainty about rate cuts in 2026. This stance contributed to market pricing of minimal or no cuts for the remainder of the year.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizes inflation control and cautious policy stance
0 (0 bps) jumps to 84%6%
In his congressional testimony, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the commitment to bringing inflation under control and announced the creation of task forces to review monetary policy factors, signaling a hawkish and data-dependent approach that dampened expectations for rate cuts in 2026.
Fed signals only one rate cut ahead in 2026 amid inflation concerns
0 (0 bps) rises to 80%2%
Following the June and July meetings, the Fed signaled a cautious approach with only one quarter-point cut expected in 2026, reflecting ongoing inflation pressures and economic uncertainty. This stance caused market probabilities for zero cuts to rise and for a single 25 bps cut to decline.
Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson hints at possible modest rate cut in late 2026
1 (25 bps) rises to 16%2%
On July 10, 2026, Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson suggested a potential modest rate cut in the latter half of 2026, conditional on economic performance. This statement briefly increased market odds for a 25 bps cut, reflected in a temporary price rise for that outcome.
Federal Reserve announces leadership and objectives of task forces to advance monetary policy
0 (0 bps) rises to 80%2%
The Fed announced new task forces to review and improve monetary policy tools and communication, signaling a commitment to price stability and maximum employment. This reinforced the Fed's cautious and data-driven approach, further diminishing near-term expectations for rate cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve announces task forces to advance monetary policy conduct
0 (0 bps) jumps to 84%5%
The Fed announced leadership and objectives of five task forces to improve monetary policy implementation, signaling ongoing commitment to price stability and employment goals amid economic uncertainty. This reflects a strategic focus rather than immediate rate changes.
Federal Reserve announces leadership and objectives of task forces to advance monetary policy
The Fed established five task forces to review key areas of monetary policy, reflecting ongoing efforts to adapt policy tools amid economic challenges and signaling a methodical approach to future rate decisions.
Fed minutes reveal split among officials but unanimous decision to hold rates steady
The minutes from the June 16-17 FOMC meeting showed internal debate among policymakers about future rate moves but confirmed unanimous agreement to keep rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, reinforcing the market's view of limited rate cuts in 2026.
Fed minutes reveal split views but no rate cuts in mid-2026
Minutes from the June 2026 FOMC meeting showed officials divided on inflation outlook and interest rate direction, with some favoring cuts and others hikes, but the committee unanimously kept rates steady. The removal of easing bias and focus on inflation control further reduced market expectations for rate cuts in 2026.
Fed minutes reveal split on rates, no clear bias toward cuts in 2026
The July 2026 release of Fed meeting minutes showed officials divided on the path of interest rates, with no consensus on cuts. This reinforced market views that multiple rate cuts in 2026 were unlikely, supporting the high probability of zero cuts.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizes cautious approach amid inflation
0 (0 bps) rises to 80%2%
In public statements around early July, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh highlighted the need to see inflation trends stabilize before considering rate cuts, reinforcing market expectations for a limited number of cuts in 2026 and supporting the high probability of zero cuts.
Fed funds rate remains at 3.75%, market prices zero cuts for remainder of 2026
0 (0 bps) rises to 84%4%
By early July 2026, the federal funds rate was last recorded at 3.75%, with market pricing strongly favoring zero rate cuts for the rest of the year. Fed officials' projections and statements indicated a cautious approach, with some officials even expecting rate hikes, making multiple cuts unlikely in 2026.
FOMC holds federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in June 2026 meeting
0 (0 bps) rises to 80%2%
The Federal Reserve held rates steady at the June 16-17 meeting, emphasizing data-driven decisions and signaling no immediate cuts. This reinforced market expectations for limited easing in 2026 and contributed to the high probability of zero cuts.
Fed officials split on future rate moves, market bets on no cuts in 2026
Following the June meeting, reports highlighted the division among Fed officials on whether to hike or cut rates. This uncertainty led markets to price in a high probability of no rate cuts in 2026, reflecting diminished expectations for easing.
Federal Reserve signals potential policy shift amid rising inflation and energy prices
In late June 2026, the Fed signaled a possible shift in monetary policy due to climbing inflation and energy prices, indicating readiness to adjust the federal funds rate trajectory. This increased market uncertainty about rate cuts, pushing expectations toward no cuts or even hikes in 2026.
Federal Reserve signals possible rate hike later in 2026 amid inflation pressures
Following the June meeting, the Federal Reserve signaled a shift in monetary policy outlook with growing support among officials for potential rate hikes later in 2026 due to persistent inflation and strong labor market data. This marked a reversal from earlier expectations of rate cuts, further diminishing the likelihood of cuts in 2026.
Fed reaffirms steady rates at 3.5%-3.75%, no cuts in sight
Following the June meeting, the Fed's implementation note confirmed maintaining the interest rate paid on reserve balances and the federal funds rate target range. This reinforced market consensus that no rate cuts would occur in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts federal funds rate by 0.25% to 3.25-3.50%
3 (75 bps) plunges to 0%84%
The FOMC lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing the rate to 3.25-3.50%, marking the third rate cut of 2026.
FOMC holds federal funds rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75% in June meeting
0 (0 bps) jumps to 78%8%
The Federal Open Market Committee decided unanimously to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate, continuing the steady policy stance with no rate cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve keeps interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in June meeting
The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75% during the June 16-17, 2026 meeting, signaling a pause in rate cuts amid mixed economic data and inflation pressures. This reinforced market expectations of limited rate cuts in 2026.
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh presides over June meeting, rates held steady
0 (0 bps) dips to 78%2%
In June 2026, under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, signaling a more hawkish stance and pushing back expectations for rate cuts. The updated dot plot suggested rate cuts would occur later in the year, if at all, reinforcing market pricing of minimal cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts rates by modest 25 basis points, signals further cuts over next two years
1 (25 bps) drops to 13%9%
The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.0%-4.25% citing worsening employment but still elevated inflation. The median projections included one more rate cut in 2026 and 2027, reinforcing market expectations for a single cut in 2026 and reducing probabilities for multiple cuts.
Fed Holds Rates Steady and Signals Possible Rate Hike Under New Chair Kevin Warsh
0 (0 bps) jumps to 77%6%
In Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chairman, the Fed kept rates steady but shifted its outlook toward potential rate hikes, causing the '0 cuts' option to surge to 71%.
Fed keeps rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, projects higher year-end rates
0 (0 bps) rises to 84%4%
The Federal Reserve held rates steady but raised year-end rate projections, signaling a hawkish stance amid sticky inflation. Market pricing shifted to expect no cuts and even potential hikes, reducing the likelihood of rate cuts in 2026 to near zero.
Fed holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in June meeting
At the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range, continuing its cautious approach amid economic uncertainty. The Board of Governors voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65 percent, signaling no immediate rate cuts.
Fed signals only one rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty and inflation concerns
0 (0 bps) jumps to 80%10%
Following the June FOMC meeting, Fed projections indicated just one 25 bps rate cut for 2026, with inflation progress slower than expected and geopolitical risks influencing the cautious outlook. Market probabilities shifted strongly toward no cuts for the remainder of the year.
Fed Chair Warsh emphasizes steady policy and inflation goal at June press conference
0 (0 bps) surges to 79%29%
Chairman Warsh underscored the Fed's commitment to its 2% inflation target and steady monetary policy during the June 2026 press conference, reinforcing market expectations of no rate cuts for the remainder of the year.
Federal Reserve expected to hold rates steady at June 2026 FOMC meeting
0 (0 bps) rises to 7%1%
The Fed is widely expected to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in June 2026, continuing its cautious stance amid ongoing inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainty. Market pricing reflects a strong probability of no rate cuts in 2026.
FOMC press conference with Chairman Warsh emphasizes steady policy
0 (0 bps) surges to 81%19%
At the June 17 press conference, Chairman Warsh underscored the Federal Reserve's commitment to its 2 percent inflation objective and steady monetary policy, reinforcing market expectations of no rate cuts in 2026.
Fed holds rates steady, signals possible hike under new Chair Warsh
0 (0 bps) rises to 79%2%
In the first FOMC meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% and removed language suggesting easing bias. Projections shifted toward possible rate hikes later in 2026, further diminishing expectations for cuts this year.
FOMC maintains rates at 3.5%-3.75%, signals no immediate cuts
The Federal Reserve continued to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, reaffirming its policy stance amid persistent inflation and a strong labor market. Market pricing began to reflect expectations of a possible rate hike later in 2026 rather than cuts, indicating a shift in outlook.
FOMC again holds rates steady, maintaining current policy stance
0 (0 bps) rises to 80%3%
The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate paid on reserve balances and the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5 to 3.75 percent. This continued pause further reduced market expectations for rate cuts in 2026.
Fed keeps interest rates unchanged for fourth consecutive meeting
0 (0 bps) jumps to 80%10%
The Federal Reserve held the benchmark rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% under new Chair Kevin Warsh, with the dot plot showing most members projecting zero or fewer cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady in June under new Chair Kevin Warsh
1 (25 bps) rises to 14%1%
The Fed unanimously held rates at 3.50-3.75% in June 2026, with updated projections slightly more hawkish but still indicating low probability of multiple cuts, supporting the market's single-cut consensus.
Fed holds rates at 3.50%-3.75%, projects only one rate cut in 2026
0 (0 bps) dips to 3%1%
At the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% and released projections showing only one 25 basis point cut expected in 2026. The updated dot plot turned more hawkish, with median year-end rate projections rising, reflecting persistent inflation and steady economic growth.
Fed holds rates steady as Warsh signals rate hikes ahead
0 (0 bps) drops to 0%13%
The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, signaling a hawkish pivot and fewer expected rate cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve maintains interest rates at June meeting amid solid economic activity
The Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, reaffirming its dual mandate and signaling no immediate cuts despite inflation remaining elevated and economic growth solid.
FOMC maintains rates at 3.5%–3.75% amid elevated inflation and economic uncertainty
1 (25 bps) drops to 13%8%
The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate steady, emphasizing data dependency and signaling that future rate cuts might occur later in the year. The decision reflected ongoing concerns about inflation and labor market conditions.
FOMC unanimously holds rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%, signals hawkish outlook
The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range, but the updated dot plot showed a hawkish shift with expectations for rates to end 2026 higher than before due to persistent inflation. This dampened market expectations for rate cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve Implementation Note confirms no rate change and operational stance
The Fed's implementation note confirmed maintaining the interest rate paid on reserve balances and open market operations to keep the federal funds rate in the 3.50%–3.75% range, reinforcing the no-cut stance mid-year.
FOMC minutes show unanimous vote to maintain rates, no cuts yet in mid-2026
0 (0 bps) jumps to 69%13%
The June FOMC meeting minutes confirmed the Committee's unanimous decision to keep the federal funds rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, with no rate cuts implemented. This reinforced the market view that cuts in 2026 were unlikely or would be delayed, further increasing the zero cuts probability.
Federal Reserve maintains rates at 3.5%-3.75% in June meeting
0 (0 bps) rises to 80%3%
The Fed's June 16-17 meeting resulted in no change to the federal funds rate, maintaining the target range at 3.5% to 3.75%. The Committee continued to emphasize data dependence and the need to monitor inflation and labor market conditions before cutting rates.
Federal Reserve maintains interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65%
0 (0 bps) jumps to 80%14%
The Federal Reserve announced on June 17, 2026, that it would keep the interest rate on reserve balances steady at 3.65%, effectively maintaining the federal funds rate target range unchanged. This decision reinforced the market's expectation of no rate cuts in 2026, reflected in the high price for zero cuts.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% amid ongoing inflation concerns
0 (0 bps) jumps to 65%9%
The Fed continued its policy of holding rates steady at the June meeting, citing elevated inflation and a stable labor market. The decision reflected a cautious stance with no immediate rate cuts, despite some market speculation for easing later in the year.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% for fourth consecutive meeting
The FOMC unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, signaling a pause in rate changes amid economic uncertainty. Markets priced in one 25 bps hike by October but no cuts, reinforcing limited cut expectations for 2026.
FOMC maintains federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% in June meeting under Chair Warsh
0 (0 bps) rises to 9%2%
The Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to keep rates steady, with new Chair Kevin Warsh presiding. The committee noted solid economic growth and elevated inflation, signaling no immediate rate cuts and reinforcing market expectations for a pause in easing through mid-2026.
FOMC Unanimously Maintains Rates at 3.5%–3.75%, Signals Higher-for-Longer Stance
0 (0 bps) jumps to 70%13%
In June 2026, the Federal Reserve kept rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% with unanimous support, while raising inflation forecasts and signaling a hawkish stance. The updated dot plot showed expectations for rates to remain elevated, reducing market expectations for cuts in 2026.
Fed keeps rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, signals possible hikes
0 (0 bps) rises to 80%3%
At the June 16-17 meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%, citing solid economic activity and elevated inflation. The statement removed previous language suggesting rate cuts, instead indicating possible rate hikes later in the year, which further reduced market expectations for cuts in 2026.
Fed maintains rates at 3.5-3.75%, continues ample reserves policy
0 (0 bps) dips to 81%2%
The Federal Reserve kept rates steady in June and continued open market operations to maintain ample reserves, signaling no immediate rate cuts and supporting market pricing for zero cuts in 2026.
FOMC holds rates steady at 3.5%–3.75%, balancing growth and inflation risks
0 (0 bps) surges to 80%39%
In June, the FOMC unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range, highlighting a delicate balance between supporting economic growth and tackling persistent inflation. Geopolitical tensions and supply chain issues were noted as risks.
Federal Reserve Holds Rates at 3.5%-3.75%, Signals Hawkish Outlook
0 (0 bps) plunges to 0%39%
The FOMC unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range, but the updated dot plot showed a median projection for rates to end 2026 higher than current levels, signaling fewer or no rate cuts. This hawkish pivot caused market prices to shift strongly toward zero cuts in 2026.
Kevin Warsh Confirmed as New Federal Reserve Chair, Signaling Potential Policy Shift
0 (0 bps) plunges to 0%50%
President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, and his confirmation raised expectations of a hawkish stance on monetary policy, contributing to market skepticism about rate cuts in 2026 and reinforcing the Fed's higher-for-longer messaging.
FOMC unanimously keeps rates steady at 3.5-3.75%, signals no cuts in 2026
0 (0 bps) surges to 78%39%
The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5 to 3.75 percent, signaling continued pause in rate changes for 2026. This decision solidified market expectations of zero rate cuts for the year, reflected in the high price for the 0 cuts outcome.
Fed holds rates steady in Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chairman
0 (0 bps) jumps to 81%12%
In Chairman Kevin Warsh's debut meeting, the Fed kept rates unchanged and signaled a hawkish shift, with economic projections pointing to a potential rate hike rather than cuts.
Federal Reserve Reaffirms Steady Rates in Unanimous Vote
The FOMC voted 12-0 to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%, pointing to solid economic growth and elevated inflation, which pushed the probability of zero cuts in 2026 to near-certainty.
Federal Reserve keeps rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid inflation concerns
0 (0 bps) dips to 78%1%
At the June 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range, citing elevated inflation and solid economic growth. The Committee remained data-dependent, with no immediate rate cuts, reflecting cautious optimism about inflation progress.
Federal Reserve Keeps Rates Unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, Signals Hawkish Outlook
0 (0 bps) drops to 0%9%
The FOMC unanimously voted to hold rates steady but raised year-end rate projections, indicating a shift toward a "higher for longer" policy stance amid inflation running above target and economic uncertainty.
Market expectations shift towards no rate cuts in 2026 after Fed signals caution
0 (0 bps) jumps to 78%10%
By mid-2026, market probabilities for zero rate cuts in 2026 rose significantly, reflecting the Fed's cautious stance and economic uncertainty, making multiple cuts unlikely within the year.
Federal Reserve maintains federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%
The Federal Reserve unanimously decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75% in June 2026, emphasizing ongoing elevated inflation and solid economic activity despite uncertainties from geopolitical tensions. This continued the pause on rate cuts in 2026.
Fed officials project only one 25 basis point rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty
1 (25 bps) jumps to 19%11%
Fed projections released in mid-2026 indicated a median forecast of just one 25 basis point cut in 2026, reflecting slower progress on inflation and economic uncertainties including geopolitical risks. This led markets to sharply reduce expectations for multiple cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid cautious outlook
At the June 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed again held rates steady, signaling a cautious approach given ongoing inflation and labor market conditions. Market expectations for rate cuts in 2026 diminished further, with the Fed emphasizing data dependency for future policy moves.
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 bps to 2.75-3.00%
3 (75 bps) plunges to 1%37%
The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 2.75-3.00%, continuing its rate-cutting cycle. This was the third cut in 2026, bringing the total to 75 bps.
Federal Reserve projects only one rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty
The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections indicated a median forecast of just one 25 basis point rate cut in 2026, reflecting slower progress on inflation and economic uncertainty, including geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict. This tempered market expectations for multiple cuts.
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points
The Fed reduced the federal funds rate by 25 bps to 3.25%-3.50%, marking the fourth consecutive reduction, with one more cut projected for 2026.
Fed projects only one rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty
0 (0 bps) jumps to 79%12%
Fed Chair Powell stated that progress on inflation will be slower than hoped, and the median projection showed just one 25 bps cut in 2026. Market expectations for cuts pulled back sharply, with probabilities for no cuts rising significantly after this announcement.
Fed holds rates steady amid Iran conflict and inflation uncertainty
0 (0 bps) jumps to 68%12%
In mid-2026, the Fed maintained rates at 3.5%-3.75% citing uncertainty from the Iran war's economic impact and slower-than-expected inflation progress. The median projection remained at one 25 bps cut for 2026, but market expectations shifted toward fewer cuts, reflecting increased caution.
Philadelphia Fed President signals potential modest rate cut in late 2026
1 (25 bps) jumps to 22%5%
Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson indicated a conditional possibility of a modest additional rate cut in the second half of 2026, depending on economic performance. This statement influenced market speculation about a single cut rather than multiple cuts.
Federal Reserve projects only one rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty
0 (0 bps) surges to 78%40%
In June 2026, the Fed's economic projections indicated only one 25 basis point cut for the remainder of the year, reflecting slower progress on inflation and uncertainty from geopolitical risks. This led markets to sharply reduce expectations for multiple cuts, favoring zero cuts by mid-year.
US consumer inflation vaults above 4% in May amid Middle East conflict
0 (0 bps) dips to 77%3%
Surging energy prices pushed consumer inflation to its fastest pace in three years, cementing expectations that the Fed would keep interest rates unchanged.
President Trump urges Fed not to raise rates, calls for cuts
President Donald Trump publicly stated that the Federal Reserve would be wrong to raise interest rates and called for rate cuts as new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh prepared for his first meeting. Despite Trump's calls, market and Fed signals indicated a low probability of cuts in 2026 due to inflation and economic conditions.
Goldman Sachs Economists Abandon Forecast for 2026 Fed Rate Cuts
0 (0 bps) jumps to 77%9%
Following a stronger-than-expected labor market report, Goldman Sachs economists announced they no longer expect any Fed rate cuts in 2026, pushing their forecast to 2027.
Goldman Sachs Economists No Longer Expect Any Fed Rate Cuts in 2026
0 (0 bps) jumps to 79%10%
Goldman Sachs revised its forecast to project zero rate cuts in 2026 due to a stronger-than-expected labor market, pushing the probability of the '0 (0 bps)' outcome to near-certainty.
Goldman Sachs revises forecast, no Fed rate cuts expected in 2026 due to strong labor market
Goldman Sachs economists pushed back expectations for Fed rate cuts to 2027, citing a stronger-than-expected labor market and persistent inflation. This revision reflects a broader market consensus that rate cuts in 2026 are unlikely, with the Fed maintaining a cautious stance.
Goldman Sachs Revises Forecast, Expects No Fed Rate Cuts in 2026
0 (0 bps) jumps to 79%10%
On June 7, 2026, Goldman Sachs economists announced they no longer expect any Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 due to a stronger-than-expected labor market, pushing expected cuts to 2027. This announcement sharply reduced market expectations for rate cuts in 2026.
Goldman Sachs drops Fed rate cut forecast for 2026 on strong jobs data
0 (0 bps) jumps to 78%8%
Goldman Sachs economists pushed back their rate cut forecasts to 2027, predicting no rate cuts at all in 2026 due to a stronger-than-expected labor market.
Goldman Sachs no longer expects Fed rate cuts in 2026 due to strong labor market
0 (0 bps) jumps to 79%9%
On June 7, 2026, Goldman Sachs economists revised their outlook, no longer expecting any Fed rate cuts in 2026, citing a stronger-than-expected labor market. This further solidified market pricing for zero cuts in 2026.
US adds 172,000 jobs in May, signaling labor market strength
The US labor market added 172,000 jobs in May 2026, exceeding expectations and indicating resilience. Strong job growth reduces pressure on the Fed to cut rates, supporting a stable or hawkish monetary policy stance despite inflation concerns.
Fed projects only one rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty and inflation concerns
0 (0 bps) surges to 79%25%
In early June 2026, the Fed's summary of economic projections indicated a median forecast of just one 25 basis point cut for the year, reflecting slower-than-expected inflation progress and geopolitical uncertainties. Market expectations shifted strongly toward zero or one cut, reducing probabilities for multiple cuts.
Federal Reserve projects only one rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty
1 (25 bps) drops to 3%7%
In June 2026, the Fed's economic projections indicated only one 25 basis point cut for the remainder of the year, reflecting slower progress on inflation and uncertainty from geopolitical risks like the Iran war. This led markets to sharply reduce expectations for multiple cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve projects only one rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty
0 (0 bps) jumps to 79%9%
In early June 2026, the Fed's economic projections indicated only one 25 bps cut for the rest of the year, with inflation progress slower than hoped and geopolitical risks weighing. This led markets to sharply reduce odds of multiple cuts, pushing the zero cuts option price to near 80%.
Kevin Warsh sworn in as Federal Reserve Chair, signaling hawkish policy stance
Kevin Warsh, known for his hawkish views on inflation and monetary policy, was sworn in as Fed Chair in May 2026. His leadership reinforced market expectations of limited or no rate cuts in 2026, with some officials projecting possible rate hikes due to persistent inflation and economic resilience.
Kevin Warsh confirmed as new Federal Reserve Chair
0 (0 bps) surges to 56%18%
Kevin Warsh was confirmed by the Senate as the new Fed Chair in May 2026, succeeding Jerome Powell. His leadership marked a shift in communication style and policy outlook, with indications of a more hawkish stance and less forward guidance, which influenced market expectations away from rate cuts in 2026.
Goldman Sachs delays expected Fed rate cuts to late 2026 and 2027
0 (0 bps) jumps to 70%14%
Goldman Sachs revised its forecast, no longer expecting any Fed rate cuts in 2026 due to a stronger labor market and elevated inflation risks, pushing expected cuts to December 2026 and beyond. This influenced market pricing toward zero cuts in 2026.
BofA and Goldman Sachs push back Fed rate-cut expectations citing inflation risks
0 (0 bps) surges to 56%15%
Major brokerages revised their forecasts, delaying expected Fed rate cuts due to elevated inflation from high energy prices and a strong labor market. This contributed to market skepticism about multiple cuts in 2026, aligning with the Fed's cautious stance.
BofA and Goldman Sachs push back Fed rate-cut expectations citing inflation and labor market strength
Major brokerages revised their forecasts, delaying expected Fed rate cuts to late 2026 or 2027 due to elevated inflation from energy prices and a strong labor market, influencing market pricing for cuts.
Federal Reserve rate cut hopes dim as inflation expectations surge
0 (0 bps) rises to 66%3%
A key market indicator of long-term inflation expectations surged to a three-year high, fueled by the economic impacts of the US-Israeli war with Iran, dampening rate cut prospects.
Rate cut hopes dim amid surging inflation and geopolitical tensions
0 (0 bps) surges to 70%54%
Rising inflation expectations and the impact of the US-Israeli war with Iran led to increased concerns about persistent price pressures. Fed officials showed internal dissent against easing bias, reducing market expectations for rate cuts in 2026.
Rising inflation and geopolitical tensions dim hopes for Fed rate cuts in 2026
0 (0 bps) surges to 80%23%
By May 2026, surging inflation expectations and supply chain pressures linked to the Iran war led to increased skepticism about Fed rate cuts. Internal Fed dissent against easing and rising commodity prices pushed markets to sharply lower the probability of any cuts in 2026.
Fed rate cut hopes diminish amid surging inflation and geopolitical tensions
0 (0 bps) rises to 14%3%
Rising inflation expectations and geopolitical risks, including the US-Israeli war with Iran, led to increased concerns about persistent price pressures, reducing market optimism for rate cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points to 4.25%-4.50% range
2 (50 bps) drops to 3%9%
In May 2026, the Federal Reserve made a significant policy pivot by cutting interest rates by 50 basis points, the first reduction since 2023, to support a softening labor market and continued progress toward inflation goals. This move was widely seen as a shift toward easing monetary policy amid slowing job gains and rising unemployment.
Federal Reserve Rate Cut Hopes Dim as Inflation Expectations Surge to Three-Year High
0 (0 bps) jumps to 70%14%
Long-term inflation expectations surged due to supply chain disruptions from the US-Israeli war with Iran, prompting three Fed officials to publicly argue that a rate hike is increasingly probable.
Federal Reserve maintains rates amid inflation and economic resilience in May 2026
0 (0 bps) surges to 57%22%
The Fed's May meeting kept rates steady, emphasizing adaptive policy guided by incoming data amid inflation pressures and solid economic activity. This reinforced market views of limited rate cuts in 2026.
FOMC holds rates steady amid most contested vote since 1992 with four dissents
The May meeting saw the Fed hold rates at 3.5%-3.75%, but with four dissenting votes including Governor Miran favoring cuts. Chair Powell emphasized the need to see progress on energy shocks and tariffs before cutting, signaling a balanced but cautious approach.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid divided vote
The May 2026 FOMC meeting was marked by four dissents, the most since 1992, with Stephen Miran dissenting for a cut and others dissenting against easing bias. Chair Powell emphasized the need to see progress on inflation and energy shocks before considering cuts, reinforcing a cautious stance and reducing market expectations for cuts in 2026.
Fed holds rates steady amid divided vote with four dissents
0 (0 bps) jumps to 69%13%
At the May 2026 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%. The meeting was the most contested since 1992, with four dissenting votes including one in favor of a cut. Chair Powell indicated the committee was well positioned and emphasized the need to see progress on inflation and energy shocks before considering cuts.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points in May 2026
2 (50 bps) drops to 2%10%
The Fed executed a significant 50 basis point rate cut in May 2026, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.25%-4.50%. This marked a shift toward supporting a softening labor market and reflected confidence that inflation was moving toward the 2% target, impacting market expectations for cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% after April meeting
At the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Committee voted unanimously to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, reflecting a cautious stance amid ongoing inflation concerns and economic uncertainty. Market expectations for rate cuts were tempered accordingly.
FOMC statement maintains rates amid Middle East tensions and inflation concerns
0 (0 bps) rises to 7%2%
The Fed kept rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%, citing solid economic activity but elevated inflation partly due to global energy prices and geopolitical risks. The statement included dissenters favoring a cut and highlighted uncertainty, which influenced market pricing toward fewer cuts.
Chair Powell signals readiness to adjust rates if needed at April press conference
At the April 29 press conference, Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the policy rate was in a good place but the Fed would signal and act if hikes or cuts became appropriate, reinforcing a cautious approach and contributing to market uncertainty about rate cuts in 2026.
Fed holds rates steady at April meeting, signals rate cuts likely in late 2026
1 (25 bps) dips to 12%2%
At the April 28-29 meeting, the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged and indicated that rate cuts were expected later in the year, likely in the third or fourth quarter. Market expectations shifted to anticipate two 25 basis point cuts over the next year, but timing was pushed later.
FOMC minutes confirm decision to keep rates steady, delay expected rate cuts
0 (0 bps) surges to 56%19%
Minutes from the April FOMC meeting showed unanimous agreement to maintain the federal funds rate target range unchanged and indicated that expected rate cuts were now anticipated later in the year or next year. This delayed timing reduced market probabilities for cuts in 2026, boosting the zero cuts option price.
Federal Reserve keeps rates steady amid solid economic activity and elevated inflation
0 (0 bps) surges to 56%16%
At the April 29 FOMC meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%, citing solid economic growth but elevated inflation and uncertainty from global energy prices. The Committee delayed expected rate cuts to later in 2026 or early 2027, dampening market expectations for immediate easing.
FOMC leaves rates unchanged, projects rate cuts delayed to late 2026
0 (0 bps) rises to 40%2%
The April meeting concluded with no change to the federal funds rate, and the Fed indicated that rate cuts were expected later in the year, likely in the third or fourth quarter. This pushed market expectations for cuts further into 2026.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady in April 2026 amid inflation and geopolitical risks
The Fed kept rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% for the third time in 2026, with dissent from some officials favoring cuts. Persistent inflation and rising energy prices linked to the Iran war contributed to caution against rate reductions.
Federal Reserve Leaves Rates Unchanged and Signals Delayed Easing
0 (0 bps) surges to 56%21%
The FOMC voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, with survey data showing market participants pushing back their expectations for rate cuts to late 2026.
Federal Reserve maintains rates at 3.50%-3.75%, signals rate cuts expected later in 2026
At the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. The Committee's survey indicated expectations for two 25 basis point rate cuts over the next year, but these were anticipated to occur later in 2026 or early 2027, reflecting a delayed easing timeline.
Fed maintains rates at 3.5%-3.75%, removes easing bias
0 (0 bps) jumps to 39%9%
In April 2026, the Fed kept rates steady and removed language suggesting an easing bias, signaling a more cautious stance amid persistent inflation and solid economic activity. This reinforced market expectations of no rate cuts in 2026 and contributed to the rise in the zero-cut probability.
Federal Reserve Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged Amid Elevated Inflation and Middle East Conflict
0 (0 bps) surges to 56%23%
The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, citing solid economic expansion, low job gains, and heightened uncertainty from geopolitical developments.
Fed keeps rates unchanged, signals rate cuts expected later in 2026
1 (25 bps) drops to 20%10%
During the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, the Fed left rates unchanged and noted that market participants expected rate cuts to occur later in the year, specifically in the third or fourth quarter of 2026. The Fed maintained the interest rate paid on reserve balances and approved the primary credit rate at existing levels.
Fed holds rates steady amid inflation and geopolitical risks
The April 29 FOMC meeting concluded with an 8-4 vote to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, with some dissent for a cut. The Fed acknowledged persistent inflation risks and geopolitical uncertainties, particularly from the Middle East conflict, which kept rate cuts off the table for the near term.
FOMC keeps rates steady, signals rate cuts expected later in 2026
The Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% but the dot plot and minutes indicated market participants expected two 25 bps cuts later in 2026, shifting expectations for cuts to the third or fourth quarter.
Federal Reserve maintains rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in April 2026 meeting
0 (0 bps) surges to 78%38%
The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5%–3.75% in April 2026, with the FOMC removing forward guidance of easing bias. The Fed's economic projections showed a downgraded GDP growth outlook and a raised median federal funds rate forecast for 2026, suggesting potential rate hikes rather than cuts.
Fed holds interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid internal dissent
The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, with four officials dissenting, reflecting internal debate over the timing of rate cuts. Chair Jerome Powell confirmed his upcoming exit, adding uncertainty. The Fed emphasized data dependency and readiness to adjust policy, but no cuts were made, tempering market expectations for 2026 cuts.
Federal Reserve meeting expected to hold rates amid inflation and geopolitical risks
Ahead of the April 28-29, 2026 meeting, markets widely expected the Fed to keep rates steady due to inflation near 4.7% and oil price pressures from Iran tensions. This cautious stance reinforced market views that rate cuts in 2026 would be limited or delayed.
Chair Powell emphasizes data-dependent approach, no rate cuts yet
0 (0 bps) rises to 43%3%
In his press conference, Chair Powell stated the policy rate was in a good place and that any rate cuts would be signaled and appropriate. This reinforced the FOMC's cautious stance and contributed to market pricing favoring no cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve Maintains Federal Funds Rate at 3.5%-3.75% in April Meeting
0 (0 bps) surges to 89%57%
At the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, the Committee voted unanimously to keep the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, reflecting ongoing caution amid elevated inflation and economic uncertainty. Market expectations for rate cuts were pushed later into the year, with cuts anticipated in the third or fourth quarter of 2026 or early 2027.
FOMC Minutes Reveal Market Expectations for Later Rate Cuts in 2026
0 (0 bps) surges to 38%16%
The April 2026 FOMC minutes indicated that while the Fed maintained rates, market participants expected rate cuts to occur later in the year, possibly in Q3 or Q4. The Fed continued to emphasize maintaining the target range at 3.5%-3.75%, reflecting ongoing inflation concerns and economic uncertainty.
FOMC minutes reiterate steady federal funds rate target range
0 (0 bps) jumps to 28%12%
On April 28-29, 2026, the FOMC again voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, with no rate cuts. Market surveys indicated expectations of possible rate cuts later in 2026, but none were implemented by this date.
FOMC minutes indicate rate cuts expected later in 2026, not early
0 (0 bps) surges to 44%27%
The April 28-29, 2026 FOMC minutes revealed that while two 25 basis point rate reductions were still expected over the next year, respondents anticipated these cuts to occur later in 2026, in the third or fourth quarter, rather than earlier. This delayed timing influenced market expectations for cuts.
FOMC leaves rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, signals rate cuts expected later in 2026
In the April 28-29, 2026 meeting, the FOMC maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%. The minutes indicated that rate cuts were expected to occur later in the year, likely in the third or fourth quarter, reflecting a cautious approach amid economic uncertainty.
Fed keeps rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% with rare dissent and Powell’s exit confirmed
0 (0 bps) surges to 78%39%
At the April 2026 meeting, the Fed held rates steady amid inflation concerns and internal disagreement, with four officials dissenting. Chair Powell confirmed his upcoming departure, adding uncertainty. The Fed signaled that future cuts depend on economic data, reinforcing market expectations of limited cuts in 2026.
Fed keeps rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, signals rate cuts expected later in 2026
0 (0 bps) jumps to 22%12%
At the April 28-29 meeting, the Fed maintained the target range and noted that rate cuts are expected in the third or fourth quarter of 2026 or early 2027, reflecting a cautious approach amid elevated inflation and economic uncertainty. Market expectations for cuts shifted later in the year accordingly.
Federal Reserve keeps federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% in April meeting
On April 28-29, 2026, the Federal Reserve again maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, signaling no immediate rate cuts. The Fed noted that market participants expected little change in rates for the year, with some anticipation of rate cuts later in 2026 or early 2027, reflecting a cautious outlook amid moderate economic conditions.
FOMC April 2026 meeting ends with unanimous vote to hold rates steady
0 (0 bps) surges to 41%16%
The Fed voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in April 2026, with four dissenters opposing an easing bias. The statement highlighted inflation risks and geopolitical uncertainty, reinforcing market pricing of zero cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve expected to hold rates steady amid inflation and geopolitical risks
Ahead of the April 28-29 meeting, markets broadly expected the Fed to keep rates unchanged due to inflation near 4.7% and energy price pressures from Iran tensions, maintaining cautious monetary policy without cuts.
Unusually divided Federal Reserve holds rates steady as four members dissent
0 (0 bps) surges to 58%24%
The Fed kept its benchmark rate unchanged for the third consecutive meeting, but the decision saw a rare four dissents, with some members objecting to the inclusion of an easing bias in the statement.
Federal Reserve maintains rates amid elevated inflation and geopolitical uncertainty
0 (0 bps) rises to 41%3%
The April FOMC statement emphasized steady economic expansion but noted elevated inflation partly due to global energy prices and Middle East tensions. The Committee kept rates unchanged, with some dissenters favoring cuts, reflecting ongoing uncertainty.
FOMC holds rates steady, signals rate cuts expected later in 2026
2 (50 bps) drops to 16%5%
The Committee maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, with minutes indicating that respondents expected rate cuts to occur in the third or fourth quarter of 2026 and into early 2027, delaying easing expectations.
FOMC maintains federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty
0 (0 bps) jumps to 34%7%
The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to keep the target range unchanged, citing solid economic activity but elevated inflation and uncertainty from the Middle East conflict. This decision reinforced market expectations of limited or no rate cuts in 2026, contributing to a rise in the zero cuts outcome price.
FOMC holds rates steady at April meeting, signals rate cuts expected later in year
The Committee voted unanimously to maintain the target range at 3.5%-3.75%, with market participants expecting two 25 basis point cuts later in 2026, but timing pushed to third or fourth quarter.
FOMC holds rates steady at 3.5%–3.75%, signals rate cuts likely in late 2026
2 (50 bps) drops to 6%7%
The Federal Open Market Committee voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range, with market surveys indicating expectations for two 25 basis point rate cuts in the third or fourth quarter of 2026 and early 2027. This reflected a cautious approach amid economic uncertainty.
FOMC maintains rates at 3.5%-3.75%, delays expected rate cuts to Q3 or Q4
0 (0 bps) surges to 55%21%
The Fed kept rates unchanged in April 2026, with minutes showing that respondents expected rate cuts to occur later in the year, in the third or fourth quarter, reflecting caution amid inflation and labor market concerns.
FOMC holds rates steady again, signals rate cuts expected in late 2026 or early 2027
0 (0 bps) jumps to 35%8%
At the April meeting, the Committee maintained the target range and noted that rate cuts were expected later in the year or early 2027, pushing market expectations further out and reducing near-term cut probabilities.
FOMC minutes confirm no rate change, expect rate cuts later in 2026
Minutes from the April FOMC meeting showed unanimous votes to keep rates steady and indicated that any rate cuts were expected later in the year, shifting market expectations toward cuts in Q3 or Q4 2026, but no immediate cuts were made.
FOMC minutes reveal cautious tone, delay in expected rate cuts
1 (25 bps) dips to 24%3%
The April 2026 FOMC minutes showed officials expected rate cuts later in the year, but delayed from earlier projections, reflecting uncertainty and a cautious approach amid persistent inflation.
Federal Reserve signals rate cuts expected later in 2026, holds steady in April
0 (0 bps) surges to 26%19%
The FOMC left rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% but indicated that rate cuts are expected in the third or fourth quarter of 2026, delaying earlier expectations. Market-implied probabilities reflected this cautious stance with limited near-term easing.
FOMC maintains federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%, signals rate cuts expected later in 2026
At the April 28-29 meeting, the FOMC voted to keep rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, with the median survey indicating two 25 basis point rate cuts expected later in the third or fourth quarter of 2026 and into early 2027. This tempered market expectations for immediate cuts and reinforced a cautious outlook.
FOMC minutes reveal delayed expectations for rate cuts to late 2026
0 (0 bps) surges to 41%25%
Minutes from the April 2026 FOMC meeting indicated that while market participants expected two 25 bps rate cuts, these were anticipated to occur later in the year, reflecting a more cautious Fed outlook amid inflation and economic uncertainties.
FOMC Holds Rates Steady in April Meeting Citing Stable Money Market Conditions
0 (0 bps) surges to 56%16%
The Federal Reserve maintained its target range at 3.50% to 3.75% during its April meeting, further solidifying the market's expectation of zero rate cuts for the year.
Fed Holds Rates Steady at 3.5%–3.75%, Citing Elevated Inflation and Economic Expansion
0 (0 bps) surges to 48%29%
The FOMC maintained the target range for the federal funds rate, balancing solid economic activity with persistent inflationary pressures, including global energy price increases and geopolitical risks.
Four Fed policymakers dissent as central bank pauses rates again
0 (0 bps) surges to 57%19%
The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, but a surprise development saw four policymakers dissent, signaling deep internal divisions and a shift toward a more hawkish stance.
Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% in April meeting
0 (0 bps) surges to 43%20%
In April 2026, the Fed again held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75%, with the Board of Governors voting unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances. Market expectations shifted to anticipate rate cuts later in the year, but no immediate easing was implemented.
FOMC meeting results show no rate change, dissent among policymakers
0 (0 bps) surges to 77%39%
The April 29, 2026 FOMC meeting resulted in a decision to keep rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, with four dissenters favoring cuts. The minutes indicated market expectations for rate cuts shifted later in the year, with no immediate easing, reflecting ongoing inflation and geopolitical uncertainties.
FOMC holds rates steady, signals rate cuts expected later in 2026
0 (0 bps) rises to 23%4%
At the April meeting, the FOMC again held rates steady, with survey respondents expecting two 25 bps cuts later in 2026 or early 2027. The Committee maintained the target range at 3.5-3.75%.
FOMC statement maintains federal funds rate, signals cautious outlook
0 (0 bps) jumps to 40%9%
On April 29, 2026, the FOMC decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, noting economic activity expanding at a solid pace but acknowledging uncertainty from geopolitical developments. Market expectations for rate cuts in 2026 remained low following this statement.
Federal Reserve implements policy to maintain federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%
0 (0 bps) drops to 31%9%
Following the April FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve directed the Open Market Desk to undertake operations to maintain the federal funds rate target range, reinforcing the no-cut stance and supporting market pricing of zero rate cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve maintains interest rates at 3.5%–3.75% amid balanced economic outlook
At the April FOMC meeting, the Fed kept rates steady, emphasizing a cautious approach due to elevated inflation and solid economic activity. Market expectations shifted to anticipate rate cuts later in the year, but no cuts were made at this meeting.
FOMC minutes reveal rate cuts expected later in 2026
2 (50 bps) plunges to 7%20%
The April 28-29 FOMC minutes indicated that while the Committee left rates unchanged, median expectations shifted to rate cuts occurring in the third or fourth quarter of 2026. Market-implied expectations showed little change in rates for the year, reflecting cautious optimism about future easing.
Fed Holds Rates Steady at 3.5%-3.75%, Votes Against Easing Bias Language
0 (0 bps) dips to 3%3%
At the April meeting, the FOMC kept rates unchanged and removed language suggesting an easing bias, reflecting caution amid inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainty. Several members dissented, preferring earlier rate cuts, which influenced market pricing toward fewer cuts in 2026.
Reuters poll shows Fed rate cuts delayed to late 2026 amid war-driven inflation risks
A Reuters poll in April 2026 indicated that economists expect the Fed to delay rate cuts until at least late 2026 due to elevated inflation driven by energy shocks from the Middle East conflict. This sentiment contributed to market pricing out earlier cuts and expecting a prolonged period of steady rates.
US consumer prices spike in March as Iran war sends energy costs soaring
0 (0 bps) rises to 40%4%
The March CPI report showed consumer prices rising 3.3% year-on-year, driven by energy costs from the Iran war, further dampening hopes for near-term rate cuts.
Fed Chair Powell signals no immediate rate cuts despite inflation risks
0 (0 bps) dips to 12%2%
In a speech at Harvard University, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that inflation expectations remain grounded despite rising energy prices from the Middle East conflict, indicating no need for immediate rate hikes or cuts. This statement contributed to market confidence in a steady rate policy for 2026.
Fed Governor Stephen Miran expects four rate cuts in 2026, diverging from consensus
Governor Miran publicly stated his expectation of four 25 basis point cuts in 2026, contrasting with the FOMC median projection of one cut. His dovish stance highlighted internal Fed divisions and influenced market speculation on the number of cuts.
FOMC holds federal funds rate steady at 3.5-3.75% amid economic uncertainty
The FOMC decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate, citing solid economic activity but elevated inflation and uncertainty, including geopolitical risks. This reinforced the market view of no rate cuts in early 2026.
FOMC minutes confirm no change to federal funds rate target range
0 (0 bps) jumps to 30%13%
The March FOMC meeting minutes showed unanimous votes to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, reinforcing market expectations of no rate cuts in early 2026.
FOMC minutes confirm decision to hold rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%
0 (0 bps) jumps to 18%7%
The March 17-18 FOMC meeting minutes confirmed the Committee's unanimous decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range unchanged, reinforcing the market view that no rate cuts would occur in early 2026. This contributed to a rise in the market price for zero rate cuts.
Trump calls for emergency Fed rate cut amid economic uncertainty
1 (25 bps) drops to 25%6%
Former President Trump publicly urged the Federal Reserve to implement an emergency rate cut in 2026, reflecting political pressure amid concerns over inflation and economic growth. While this call did not result in immediate action, it contributed to market speculation about potential emergency cuts, briefly affecting market pricing.
Federal Reserve leaves benchmark interest rate unchanged for second straight meeting
1 (25 bps) jumps to 36%8%
The FOMC voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, citing elevated uncertainty about the economic outlook and Middle East developments.
Fed keeps rates unchanged, highlights inflation challenges
0 (0 bps) rises to 14%4%
The March 18 FOMC meeting resulted in no change to the federal funds rate, with the Fed emphasizing ongoing inflation pressures, including tariff-driven price hikes and energy price increases due to the Middle East conflict. This reinforced market expectations of a steady rate environment in 2026.
Fed keeps rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, signals cautious outlook
1 (25 bps) rises to 17%1%
On March 18, 2026, the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, citing inflation uncertainty and energy prices. The Summary of Economic Projections continued to show a median forecast of one rate cut in 2026, maintaining market expectations for limited easing.
Fed officials project only one rate cut in 2026 amid policy divisions
1 (25 bps) plunges to 14%16%
Fed policymakers showed a divided outlook but generally projected only one 25 basis point cut in 2026, reflecting uncertainty and caution. This official guidance influenced market pricing toward fewer cuts.
Fed keeps rates unchanged as war in Middle East and inflation weigh on outlook
0 (0 bps) surges to 31%15%
The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in an 11-1 vote, citing persistent inflation, rising oil prices, and uncertainty surrounding the Iran war.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady, signals one cut ahead
The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% despite cooling labor market and inflation concerns, with one more 25 bps cut projected for 2026.
Federal Reserve Pauses Rates Amid Middle East Conflict and Elevated Inflation
0 (0 bps) jumps to 29%10%
The Fed kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, citing persistent inflation, rising oil prices, and economic uncertainty surrounding the war in the Middle East.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50-3.75% after March meeting
The FOMC voted 11-1 to hold rates steady, citing elevated economic uncertainty and inflation risks, with only one quarter-point cut expected in 2026.
FOMC holds rates steady, Powell press conference influences market expectations
1 (25 bps) jumps to 18%9%
The Fed maintained rates at 3.5%-3.75% during the March 2026 meeting, with Chair Powell's cautious language leading markets to expect rate cuts only in the second half of the year, if at all.
Fed keeps rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, signals cautious stance
0 (0 bps) jumps to 21%14%
The March 2026 FOMC statement reiterated the decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range, emphasizing careful assessment of incoming data amid global uncertainties. The Fed's cautious stance reinforced market expectations of no immediate rate cuts.
FOMC March meeting holds rates steady, markets await Powell's guidance
1 (25 bps) drops to 25%6%
The March 2026 FOMC meeting ended with no rate change amid cautious inflation progress. Chair Powell's press conference was closely watched for signals on future cuts, but the Fed remained data-dependent, tempering immediate expectations for rate reductions.
Fed keeps rates unchanged amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty
0 (0 bps) jumps to 27%8%
On March 18, 2026, the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, citing persistent inflation above target and uncertainty from the Iran war. The Summary of Economic Projections indicated only one 25 basis point cut expected in 2026, leading markets to reduce expectations for multiple cuts.
Fed rate cut hopes fade amid US-Iran conflicts before March FOMC
0 (0 bps) jumps to 21%7%
Geopolitical tensions from US-Iran conflicts raised energy prices and inflation concerns, leading the Fed to delay rate cuts. Market expectations shifted towards holding rates steady in March and postponing cuts until mid-2026 or later.
Federal Reserve Projects Only One Rate Cut for 2026 Amid Economic Uncertainty
1 (25 bps) jumps to 31%13%
The Fed left interest rates unchanged and released economic projections showing the median participant expects only one 25 basis point rate cut in 2026, causing markets to pull back easing expectations.
Fed Holds Rates Steady and Projects Only One Cut in 2026 Amid War and Inflation
1 (25 bps) jumps to 31%12%
The Fed kept rates at 3.5% to 3.75% and maintained projections for only one quarter-point cut in 2026, citing elevated inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.
Federal Reserve maintains rates amid solid growth and elevated inflation
0 (0 bps) rises to 14%4%
On March 18, 2026, the FOMC voted to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%, noting solid economic activity, modest job gains, and inflation remaining somewhat elevated. One member dissented, preferring a 25 basis point cut. The Fed emphasized data dependency and readiness to adjust policy if risks emerge, reinforcing market expectations of no immediate cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve maintains federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%
0 (0 bps) jumps to 29%11%
The FOMC kept the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% amid ongoing economic uncertainties and elevated inflation. The Fed emphasized data-driven decision-making and noted dissenting votes favoring a rate cut, but no cuts were implemented. Market expectations for rate cuts in 2026 diminished following this meeting.
FOMC holds rates steady amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty
0 (0 bps) jumps to 11%5%
The March 2026 FOMC meeting resulted in no rate change, with the Fed assessing inflation risks and geopolitical tensions. Market expectations for rate cuts in 2026 diminished further, with a high probability of no cuts this year.
Federal Reserve maintains rates steady at March 2026 meeting amid economic uncertainty
0 (0 bps) jumps to 16%11%
The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, highlighting ongoing elevated inflation and a cautious economic outlook. The statement emphasized careful assessment of incoming data before any rate adjustments, reinforcing market expectations of no immediate cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid inflation and geopolitical risks
0 (0 bps) jumps to 17%11%
The March 2026 FOMC meeting resulted in no change to the federal funds rate, with the Fed citing elevated inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, including the Iran conflict, as reasons to pause rate cuts. Market expectations for easing shifted later into the year.
Federal Reserve maintains interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% in March 2026 meeting
0 (0 bps) jumps to 26%14%
The Fed kept rates steady with one dissenting vote favoring a 25-basis-point cut, reflecting ongoing elevated inflation and solid economic growth. The decision reinforced market expectations of limited rate cuts in 2026.
March 2026 FOMC Meeting Ends with No Rate Change, Markets Await Further Guidance
0 (0 bps) jumps to 23%9%
The Federal Reserve held its March 17-18, 2026 meeting without changing interest rates, signaling a cautious approach amid slowly fading inflation and a strong labor market. Market participants closely watched Powell's press conference for hints on future rate cuts, but no immediate cuts were made.
Federal Reserve Maintains Target Range for Federal Funds Rate at 3.50% to 3.75%
0 (0 bps) jumps to 27%9%
The FOMC decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at its March meeting, reinforcing expectations that the Fed would hold rates steady and driving up the probability of zero rate cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady, signals one cut ahead in 2026
The Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% amid inflation concerns and economic uncertainty, signaling only one quarter-point cut ahead in 2026. This cautious stance led markets to price in a low probability of multiple cuts in 2026, reflecting elevated inflation and geopolitical risks.
Fed maintains rates at 3.5%-3.75%, signals cautious outlook
0 (0 bps) jumps to 18%13%
The Federal Reserve kept rates steady again, emphasizing ongoing elevated inflation and uncertain economic outlook. One member dissented favoring a 25 basis point cut. The Fed's stance contributed to market pricing of low probability for rate cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% with one dissent for a cut
0 (0 bps) jumps to 28%12%
During the March 17-18 FOMC meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, describing economic activity as solid but inflation somewhat elevated. One member dissented, favoring a 25 basis point cut, indicating persistent uncertainty about the timing of future rate adjustments.
Federal Reserve Maintains Interest Rates at 3.5%-3.75% in March Meeting
0 (0 bps) jumps to 23%13%
In March 2026, the Federal Reserve continued its cautious approach by keeping the federal funds rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75%. Policymakers cited ongoing elevated inflation and mixed labor market signals as reasons to pause further rate cuts, reinforcing market expectations of no immediate easing.
Fed holds rates steady amid inflation concerns and Iran war uncertainty
In March 2026, the Fed kept rates unchanged while projecting higher inflation and a single rate cut later in the year, reflecting uncertainty from geopolitical tensions and inflation persistence.
New York Fed President signals flexibility on future rate cuts
1 (25 bps) jumps to 14%5%
John Williams of the New York Fed indicated that if inflation moderates as expected, additional rate cuts could be appropriate later in 2026. This statement kept the market open to the possibility of further easing depending on economic conditions.
FOMC maintains rates at 3.50%-3.75% amid solid economic growth and inflation concerns
1 (25 bps) drops to 17%7%
The Committee kept the federal funds rate steady, citing solid economic activity and elevated inflation. One dissent favored a 25 basis point cut, reflecting ongoing debate about the appropriate policy stance given mixed economic signals.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady amid economic uncertainty
0 (0 bps) rises to 10%2%
The Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, citing elevated economic uncertainty including the impact of the Iran war. Officials maintained the projection of one rate cut in 2026, signaling a cautious approach.
FOMC minutes reveal no rate cut at March meeting, market expectations shift
The March 2026 FOMC meeting minutes showed the Committee voted to maintain rates, with rate cuts not fully priced in until December, signaling a cautious approach and solid economic growth expectations.
President Trump calls for emergency Federal Reserve meeting to cut interest rates
Ahead of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting, President Trump publicly urged the Fed to convene a special meeting and cut rates immediately, intensifying pressure on Fed Chair Powell. The Fed, however, held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% during the scheduled meeting, maintaining a cautious stance.
FOMC statement maintains federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%
0 (0 bps) jumps to 37%13%
The Federal Reserve announced no change to the federal funds rate at the March meeting, maintaining the target range and signaling a cautious approach amid ongoing economic assessment. This reinforced market expectations of no cuts in the near term, pushing prices further toward zero cuts.
New York Fed President John Williams signals flexibility on future rate cuts
1 (25 bps) rises to 27%1%
Williams indicated that if inflation moderates as expected, additional rate cuts could be appropriate later in 2026, keeping the market open to some easing despite uncertainties from geopolitical tensions and energy prices.
FOMC holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, one dissent for 25 bps cut
1 (25 bps) rises to 27%2%
The March 2026 FOMC statement maintained the federal funds rate target range, with one dissenting vote favoring a 25 basis point cut. The median projection continued to expect one cut in 2026, reinforcing cautious market sentiment.
FOMC maintains federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%
0 (0 bps) rises to 7%1%
The March 18 FOMC meeting resulted in no change to the federal funds rate target range, reinforcing the Fed's cautious approach and signaling that a rate cut was not fully priced in until December. This contributed to market expectations of minimal cuts in 2026.
FOMC minutes reveal one dissent favoring 25 bps cut amid inflation concerns
1 (25 bps) drops to 14%12%
The March 2026 FOMC minutes showed one member, Stephen I. Miran, dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point cut, reflecting ongoing debate within the committee about the appropriate policy stance given inflation and economic conditions.
FOMC holds rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% with one dissent for cut
0 (0 bps) jumps to 23%10%
At the March 2026 meeting, the FOMC voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75%, with one dissenting vote from Governor Stephen Miran favoring a 25 basis point cut. The Committee's economic outlook showed increased inflation and growth forecasts but no immediate rate cuts.
Federal Reserve Maintains Rates at 3.5%–3.75% with One Dissent for Cut
0 (0 bps) jumps to 13%7%
In March 2026, the FOMC again held rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, with one dissenting vote favoring a 25 basis point cut. The Committee noted inflation remained elevated and economic growth solid, leading to continued market expectations of no cuts until late 2026.
Fed holds rates steady, projects one rate cut in 2026 amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty
1 (25 bps) jumps to 28%10%
The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, projecting a single 25 basis point cut in 2026 while highlighting inflation risks and uncertainty from the Iran war, which tempered market expectations for multiple cuts.
FOMC minutes show no rate cut, market expectations shift later into year
0 (0 bps) jumps to 13%7%
The March FOMC minutes revealed unanimous decision to maintain rates, with futures prices shifting to expect rate cuts only by December. This delayed expected easing and pushed market prices toward fewer cuts.
FOMC keeps federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% with one dissent for a cut
0 (0 bps) surges to 32%15%
During the March 17-18 meeting, the Federal Reserve again held the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75%, with one dissenting vote favoring a 25 basis point cut. The Committee noted solid economic growth and inflation slightly elevated, maintaining a cautious stance on rate cuts for 2026.
Fed holds rates steady at March FOMC meeting, signals one rate cut in 2026
1 (25 bps) rises to 10%1%
The Fed kept rates unchanged as inflation remained above target, with Chair Powell emphasizing the need for sustained inflation progress before cutting rates. The updated dot plot showed a median projection of one 25 basis point cut in 2026, reinforcing cautious market expectations.
Fed holds rates steady at March FOMC meeting, signals no imminent cuts
0 (0 bps) jumps to 18%7%
At the March meeting, the Fed maintained rates at 3.50%-3.75% and Chair Powell emphasized that rate cuts would not occur until inflation data showed clear progress. The updated dot plot projected only one cut in 2026, reinforcing a cautious outlook and causing markets to lower expectations for multiple cuts.
Federal Reserve keeps rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% after March FOMC meeting
0 (0 bps) jumps to 13%10%
The Fed's March meeting resulted in no change to the federal funds rate, maintaining the target range at 3.5% to 3.75%. The Committee emphasized data dependence and uncertainty about the economic outlook, signaling no immediate cuts despite some internal dissent.
FOMC keeps rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, one dissent for 25-bps cut
1 (25 bps) rises to 7%2%
The Federal Open Market Committee voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range steady, with one dissenting vote favoring a 25-bps cut. The Fed maintained its inflation and growth outlook, continuing to project one additional cut in 2026, reinforcing market expectations of limited easing.
FOMC keeps rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% with one dissent for cut
0 (0 bps) jumps to 18%13%
At the March meeting, the FOMC again held rates steady, with Governor Stephen Miran dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point cut. Inflation and growth forecasts increased, but the Committee remained cautious, signaling no immediate cuts.
Federal Reserve signals potential interest rate cuts contingent on inflation trajectory
1 (25 bps) jumps to 33%8%
Minutes from the December 2025 FOMC meeting indicated the Fed's readiness to consider at least one rate cut if inflation moderates, reflecting internal debate and uncertainty about the pace of easing.
FOMC holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% with one dissent for a 25 bps cut
0 (0 bps) jumps to 22%12%
The Federal Open Market Committee voted to keep the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with Governor Stephen Miran dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point cut. The Fed maintained its description of solid growth and somewhat elevated inflation, signaling continued caution on rate cuts.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty
0 (0 bps) jumps to 23%14%
The Fed voted 11-1 to keep rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% at the March meeting, citing elevated inflation and geopolitical risks, particularly the Iran conflict, as reasons to pause further easing. This reinforced market expectations for limited rate cuts in 2026.
President Trump calls for emergency Federal Reserve meeting to cut interest rates
Ahead of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting, President Trump publicly urged the Federal Reserve to convene a special meeting and cut interest rates immediately, increasing political pressure on the Fed to lower borrowing costs amid economic concerns.
FOMC holds rates steady with one dissent favoring a 25 bps cut
1 (25 bps) rises to 6%1%
The Federal Open Market Committee voted to keep rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with one dissenting vote for a 25 basis point cut, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about inflation and employment. The median expectation remained for one additional cut in 2026.
Fed projects only one rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty
1 (25 bps) jumps to 19%7%
The Federal Reserve's summary of economic projections indicated a median forecast of just one 25 basis point cut in 2026, reflecting slower-than-expected progress on inflation and ongoing economic uncertainties, which led markets to reduce expectations for multiple cuts.
FOMC holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% with one dissent for a 25 bps cut
1 (25 bps) rises to 25%1%
At the March meeting, the Fed maintained the target range, with Governor Stephen Miran dissenting in favor of a cut. The median forecast continued to expect one more 25 bps cut in 2026, but the overall tone remained cautious amid inflation concerns.
Iran war drives oil price surge, increasing inflationary pressures
The Iran war beginning in early 2026 caused oil prices to surge above $100 per barrel due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to higher energy costs globally. This geopolitical shock increased inflation risks, reducing the likelihood of Fed rate cuts in 2026 and supporting a higher-for-longer rate outlook.
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 bps to 3.25-3.50%
3 (75 bps) plunges to 1%37%
The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.25-3.50%, with one member voting for a 50 bps cut. This was part of a broader rate-cutting cycle expected over the next two years.
New York Fed President Williams signals flexibility on future rate cuts
1 (25 bps) rises to 13%3%
John Williams indicated that if inflation continues to moderate as expected, additional rate cuts could be appropriate later in 2026. This statement kept the door open for easing but emphasized dependence on inflation and labor market trends, contributing to market uncertainty.
New York Fed President signals flexibility for additional rate cuts if inflation moderates
1 (25 bps) dips to 27%1%
John Williams stated that if inflation continues to ease as expected, further rate cuts could be appropriate later in 2026, keeping the door open for easing but dependent on economic data, which influenced market cautiousness.
Federal Reserve executes unprecedented 50-basis-point emergency rate cut
In response to recent financial market strains and bank failures, the Fed made an unscheduled 50-basis-point emergency rate cut on February 20, lowering the federal funds rate from 4.50% to 4.00%. This was the first inter-meeting cut since March 2020, signaling concerns about financial stability but did not lead to further immediate cuts in 2026.
No emergency Fed rate cuts in 2026; markets price low probability for such moves
0 (0 bps) plunges to 8%63%
Despite financial market strains in early 2026, the Fed did not execute any emergency rate cuts. Market data and Fed communications indicated a very low probability of emergency cuts, reinforcing expectations for a steady or higher rate path.
Federal Reserve executes emergency 50 basis point rate cut amid financial market strains
The Fed made an unprecedented inter-meeting emergency rate cut of 50 basis points on February 20, 2026, lowering the federal funds rate from 4.50% to 4.00%. This was prompted by recent strains in financial markets following bank failures and repo market disruptions, signaling concerns about financial stability.
Federal Reserve executes unprecedented 50-basis-point emergency rate cut amid financial market strains
2 (50 bps) plunges to 8%63%
In response to recent financial market strains including bank failures and repo market disruptions, the Fed made an unscheduled 50-basis-point emergency rate cut on February 20, lowering the federal funds rate from 4.50% to 4.00%. This was the first inter-meeting cut since March 2020 and temporarily increased expectations for additional cuts in 2026.
Fed executes emergency 50 basis point rate cut amid financial market strains
In an unprecedented inter-meeting move, the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points on February 20, 2026, responding to recent financial market strains including bank failures and repo market disruptions. This emergency cut counted as two 25 basis point cuts, impacting market expectations for total cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve projects only one rate cut for 2026 amid economic uncertainty
1 (25 bps) drops to 10%9%
The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections indicated a median forecast of just one 25bps rate cut in 2026, reflecting cautious optimism but persistent inflation risks, which led markets to reduce expectations for multiple cuts.
FOMC January Minutes Reveal Deep Concerns Over Persistent Inflation and Slower Progress
0 (0 bps) jumps to 17%10%
The release of the January 27-28 meeting minutes showed that a majority of FOMC participants feared progress toward the 2% inflation target would be slower and more uneven than expected, prompting traders to price out aggressive rate cuts.
Fed Official Signals Interest Rates Could Remain Steady for a Long Time
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated that the Fed sees no urgent need to change interest rates in 2026, supporting the January decision to maintain rates. She emphasized patience to assess previous cuts' impact, reinforcing market expectations of no rate cuts this year.
Federal Reserve official signals interest rates could remain steady for a long time
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated that the Fed sees no urgent need to change interest rates in 2026, describing the economic outlook as cautiously optimistic. She supported the January decision to maintain rates and emphasized patience in assessing previous rate cuts' impact, reinforcing market expectations for minimal or no cuts in 2026.
Fed Official Beth Hammack Signals Interest Rates Could Remain Steady for Long Time
0 (0 bps) rises to 8%2%
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated that the current monetary policy is appropriate and that interest rates could remain unchanged for an extended period. This reinforced market expectations of no imminent rate cuts in early 2026 amid cautious optimism about the economy.
Federal Reserve eyes 2026 rate cuts amid growing disinflation
2 (50 bps) rises to 27%4%
Economic reports indicated cooling inflation and moderated growth, prompting speculation that the Fed might have room for rate cuts in 2026, which influenced market expectations for easing monetary policy.
Fed signals only one rate cut in 2026 amid slower inflation progress and economic uncertainty
1 (25 bps) dips to 14%4%
In February 2026, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the FOMC projected just one 25 bps rate cut for the year, citing slower-than-expected inflation progress and uncertainty from geopolitical risks like the Iran war. This tempered market expectations, reducing the probability of multiple cuts.
Fed eyes 2026 rate cuts amid cooling inflation
1 (25 bps) rises to 17%4%
Economic reports in early 2026 showed disinflation trends, leading analysts to expect the Federal Reserve might have room to ease policy with rate cuts during the year. This bolstered market hopes for cuts, though the Fed remained data-dependent and cautious.
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25bps to 3.5%-3.75% amid economic uncertainty
1 (25 bps) drops to 14%5%
The Fed lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in early 2026, citing moderate economic expansion, a softening labor market, and elevated inflation. This move signaled a possible shift toward easing but also reflected caution due to economic uncertainties, influencing market expectations for limited cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve Publishes Analysis on Balance Sheet Reduction Impact
0 (0 bps) rises to 10%3%
The Fed released a note explaining how balance sheet reduction complements rate hikes to tighten financial conditions, signaling a cautious approach to monetary easing and influencing market expectations for limited rate cuts in 2026.
Fed minutes show divided views on rate cuts amid solid economic activity
0 (0 bps) rises to 17%4%
Fed minutes revealed two dissenters favoring a cut but overall committee leaning to hold rates steady until clearer inflation data emerges, reinforcing market expectations of limited cuts in 2026.
FOMC meeting signals no emergency rate cuts in early 2026, reducing cut expectations
2 (50 bps) plunges to 8%63%
The FOMC voted to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in January, with Chair Powell signaling no rush to reduce rates further. This hawkish stance sharply reduced market expectations for emergency rate cuts in 2026.
President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as next Federal Reserve Chair, signaling potential for aggressive rate cuts
2 (50 bps) surges to 71%64%
President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh, known for advocating lower rates, raised market expectations for multiple Fed rate cuts in 2026, including emergency cuts. This political development caused a sharp increase in market pricing for two emergency rate cuts.
FOMC holds rates steady at 3.5-3.75%, Bowman reiterates three cuts forecast
1 (25 bps) dips to 9%1%
The FOMC decided to keep rates unchanged at the January meeting, with Bowman reaffirming her view of three cuts in 2026. This reinforced market uncertainty but no immediate cuts were made.
Fed Governor Waller dissents, advocating 25 bps rate cut amid labor market weakness
Governor Christopher J. Waller publicly dissented at the January FOMC meeting, arguing that a 25 basis point cut was appropriate due to labor market fragility and economic weakness. Despite his stance, the Committee did not cut rates, maintaining the target range, which influenced market expectations by keeping the probability of cuts low but present.
Fed Vice Chair Bowman signals three rate cuts expected in 2026
3 (75 bps) plunges to 16%22%
Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman indicated in speeches that the Fed anticipates three rate cuts in 2026, reflecting a view that policy is moderately restrictive and that easing will be gradual throughout the year.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller dissents favoring 25 bps rate cut
0 (0 bps) rises to 7%2%
Governor Christopher Waller dissented at the January 2026 FOMC meeting, advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut due to perceived labor market weakness and economic conditions. However, the Committee did not implement any cuts at that time, maintaining the rate range.
Governor Waller dissents, advocating for 25 bps rate cut amid weak labor market
Governor Waller dissented at the recent FOMC meeting, arguing that a 25 basis point cut was appropriate due to labor market weakness, but the Committee did not follow this, keeping rates steady.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in first 2026 meeting
0 (0 bps) dips to 4%1%
The Fed paused its rate-cutting campaign, maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% amid inflation concerns and economic uncertainty, signaling a cautious approach and reducing market expectations for multiple cuts in 2026.
Vice Chair Bowman signals expectation of three rate cuts in 2026
1 (25 bps) rises to 10%1%
Vice Chair Michelle Bowman expressed in a speech that she anticipates three rate cuts in 2026, highlighting internal Fed expectations for easing later in the year despite the current pause. This contributed to early market pricing of potential cuts.
Fed Governor Waller dissents, calls for 25 bps rate cut citing labor market weakness
1 (25 bps) drops to 14%12%
Governor Christopher J. Waller dissented at the January FOMC meeting, advocating for a 25 basis point cut due to labor market fragility and the need for further easing. This highlighted internal Fed divisions on the pace of cuts in 2026.
Fed Governor Waller dissents, calls for immediate 25 bps cut citing weak labor market
Governor Waller dissented at the January FOMC meeting, arguing for a 25 basis point cut due to labor market weakness and planned layoffs, but the Committee held rates steady. This dissent highlighted internal Fed debate but did not change the policy stance, reinforcing market skepticism about near-term cuts.
Fed holds rates steady at 3.5-3.75%, Bowman reiterates cautious approach
0 (0 bps) plunges to 5%16%
At the January FOMC meeting, the Committee voted to hold rates steady, with Bowman explaining the choice to move policy to neutral at a measured pace. This reinforced market uncertainty about the timing of cuts, tempering expectations.
Fed Governor Waller dissents, favors 25 bps rate cut at January meeting
Governor Christopher J. Waller dissented at the January FOMC meeting, arguing that a 25 basis point cut was appropriate due to a weak labor market and the need for further easing, contrasting with the majority decision to hold rates steady.
Fed Vice Chair Bowman signals three rate cuts expected in 2026
Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman stated in a speech that her Summary of Economic Projections includes three rate cuts for 2026, highlighting a view that policy is moderately restrictive and inflation is moving closer to target, but the labor market remains fragile.
Fed Governor Waller advocates for rate cut amid weak labor market
Governor Christopher J. Waller dissented at the January FOMC meeting, arguing that a 25 basis point rate cut was appropriate due to labor market weakness and economic data. Despite his stance, the Fed did not cut rates, maintaining a cautious approach that kept market expectations for cuts moderate.
Fed Governor Waller dissents for 25 bps rate cut amid weak labor market
Governor Christopher J. Waller dissented at the January FOMC meeting, advocating a 25 basis point cut due to a weak labor market and economic data indicating the need for further easing. This dissent reflected some internal Fed support for rate cuts but did not result in an actual cut, keeping market expectations uncertain.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller Dissents, Advocates 25bps Rate Cut
1 (25 bps) drops to 14%12%
Governor Waller dissented at the January FOMC meeting, arguing that the weak labor market and elevated inflation warranted a 25 basis point rate cut. His stance highlighted internal Fed divisions and influenced market expectations for potential cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady, pausing rate cuts in January 2026
The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, signaling a pause in the rate-cutting campaign amid mounting uncertainty and inflation concerns. This move dampened market expectations for further cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve signals end to aggressive rate-cutting campaign
The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in late January 2026, ending the streak of cuts and framing policy as close to neutral. This reinforced market expectations that rate cuts in 2026 would be limited or absent.
Fed signals pause on rate cuts, emphasizing neutral policy stance
The Fed paused its rate-cutting campaign in late January 2026, holding rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%. Chair Powell described the policy stance as close to neutral, signaling a watchful waiting approach amid ongoing inflation and labor market concerns. This reinforced market expectations of no immediate cuts.
Federal Reserve signals pause on rate cuts, holding rates steady in January 2026
0 (0 bps) rises to 5%2%
The Fed paused its rate-cutting campaign, holding rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% after three consecutive cuts in late 2025. Chair Powell described the policy stance as close to neutral, signaling a cautious approach and reducing market expectations for cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve pauses rate cuts, holding rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%
0 (0 bps) jumps to 16%13%
The Fed paused its rate-cutting campaign after three consecutive cuts, signaling a shift to a neutral stance amid solid economic expansion and persistent inflation. This decision reinforced market expectations for fewer or no cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, signaling pause in cuts
0 (0 bps) rises to 7%4%
In January 2026, the Fed held rates steady after three consecutive cuts, signaling a pause in its rate-cutting campaign. Chair Powell described the policy stance as close to neutral, which led markets to reduce expectations for multiple cuts in 2026.
Fed holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid cautious outlook
2 (50 bps) plunges to 8%63%
At the January 27-28 FOMC meeting, the Fed decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged, signaling a pause in rate cuts and emphasizing a data-dependent approach. This decision reduced market expectations for imminent rate cuts in 2026, causing a significant drop in the probability of multiple cuts.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady in first 2026 meeting
1 (25 bps) jumps to 14%5%
In its first policy decision of 2026, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, with a 10-2 vote. The Fed emphasized economic uncertainty and elevated inflation, signaling a wait-and-see approach and projecting only one rate cut in 2026 in its Summary of Economic Projections.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% in first 2026 meeting
0 (0 bps) plunges to 4%17%
The FOMC decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%–3.75%, ending a series of three cuts in 2025. Two members dissented, favoring a 25-basis-point cut, reflecting early-year debate on the need for easing amid inflation concerns.
FOMC holds federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, signaling no immediate cuts
2 (50 bps) plunges to 8%63%
The Federal Open Market Committee voted to keep rates unchanged, with Chair Jerome Powell indicating no rush to reduce rates further, which sharply reduced market expectations for emergency rate cuts in early 2026.
Fed holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in January meeting
1 (25 bps) dips to 9%2%
At the January 28, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, continuing its cautious approach amid solid economic growth and persistent inflation. This reinforced the market view of limited rate cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% in first 2026 meeting
0 (0 bps) dips to 4%1%
The Fed held rates steady amid a split committee and ongoing inflation above target. The decision reflected caution and uncertainty about further cuts, with the market expecting two cuts later in the year but the Fed signaling a more measured approach.
Federal Reserve Pauses Rate Cuts, Holding Benchmark Rate Steady
0 (0 bps) rises to 7%2%
The FOMC voted 10-2 to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, halting its streak of consecutive cuts and signaling a shift to neutral ground.
FOMC maintains federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%
0 (0 bps) jumps to 11%6%
The Federal Reserve Board voted unanimously to keep the interest rate paid on reserve balances unchanged, signaling no rate cuts at the January meeting and maintaining steady policy.
Fed projects only one rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty
1 (25 bps) drops to 7%7%
The Fed's updated projections indicated the median policymaker expects just one 25 basis point cut in 2026, reflecting concerns about inflation and economic risks. This tempered market expectations for multiple cuts and introduced caution into the outlook for 2026.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid inflation concerns
2 (50 bps) plunges to 8%63%
At the January 28, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed voted to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, signaling a pause after several cuts in 2025. Chair Powell emphasized a data-dependent approach and indicated no rush to reduce rates further, which sharply reduced market expectations for imminent cuts.
FOMC holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% with dissenters favoring cuts
1 (25 bps) plunges to 10%16%
The FOMC decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, with dissenting votes from Governors Waller and Miran who preferred a 25 basis point cut, highlighting internal Fed divisions and concerns about labor market weakness and the need for easing.
Federal Reserve maintains federal funds rate target range at 3.5-3.75%
The Federal Reserve announced it would keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5 to 3.75 percent, signaling no immediate rate cuts at the start of 2026. This decision reinforced market expectations for limited easing in 2026.
FOMC January 2026 meeting holds rates steady amid inflation and cooling job market
The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in January 2026, signaling a pause after the 2025 cuts. Market participants closely watched for signals on future cuts, but the Fed emphasized data dependency and uncertainty.
Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady at 3.5%-3.75% After Three Cuts in 2025
1 (25 bps) drops to 14%12%
The FOMC decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, pausing the rate-cutting trend after three cuts in 2025. This decision reflected a cautious approach amid solid economic growth but fragile labor market conditions, signaling only one expected cut in 2026.
FOMC holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, signaling cautious stance on cuts
2 (50 bps) plunges to 8%63%
The Federal Reserve's January 28 meeting ended a series of cuts from late 2025, with the FOMC voting to hold rates steady and Chair Powell emphasizing a data-dependent approach. This hawkish stance reduced market expectations for imminent rate cuts in 2026, reflected in a sharp drop in the probability of multiple cuts.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid cautious outlook
0 (0 bps) plunges to 8%63%
At the January 28 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, signaling a pause in rate cuts and emphasizing a data-dependent approach. This decision reduced market expectations for emergency rate cuts in early 2026.
FOMC holds rates steady, signals possible rate cuts later in 2026
1 (25 bps) rises to 13%4%
The Federal Reserve's January 2026 meeting resulted in no change to the federal funds rate, maintaining the target range at 3.5% to 3.75%. Market expectations included one to two 25 basis point rate cuts later in the year, reflecting cautious optimism about inflation progress and economic resilience.
FOMC holds federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75%, signaling no immediate cuts
0 (0 bps) plunges to 8%63%
The Federal Reserve paused rate cuts at its January meeting, emphasizing a data-dependent approach and signaling no immediate reductions in 2026. This hawkish stance caused a sharp decline in market expectations for emergency rate cuts, pushing probabilities for zero cuts higher.
FOMC minutes reveal divided views on inflation and rate cuts
0 (0 bps) rises to 6%3%
Minutes from the January 27-28, 2026 FOMC meeting showed concern about persistent inflation and a divided committee, with some members preferring further cuts while others awaited more data. The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, reflecting uncertainty about the timing of future cuts and inflation risks.
Fed holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, signals data-dependent approach
0 (0 bps) plunges to 3%18%
At the January 28, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, pausing the rate cut cycle. Chair Powell emphasized a cautious, data-dependent approach with no rush to reduce rates further, which sharply reduced market expectations for emergency or additional cuts in 2026.
FOMC holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, signals no immediate cuts
0 (0 bps) plunges to 8%63%
The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, signaling a pause in rate cuts and emphasizing a data-dependent approach amid ongoing inflation concerns. This decision reduced market expectations for rate cuts in early 2026, causing a sharp drop in the probability of multiple cuts.
Fed Chair Powell emphasizes rate cut depends on inflation progress
0 (0 bps) rises to 10%1%
Powell stated that any interest rate cut in 2026 hinges on progress in taming inflation and economic data, signaling a cautious approach and influencing market pricing towards fewer cuts.
Federal Reserve keeps interest rate unchanged at about 3.6% in first 2026 meeting
0 (0 bps) rises to 8%4%
The Fed held rates steady at the January meeting, reflecting a split among policymakers between those wanting to hold until inflation drops and those favoring cuts to support hiring. This contributed to market uncertainty and a decline in expectations for multiple cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged at first 2026 meeting
0 (0 bps) rises to 5%1%
In its first meeting of 2026, the Fed held rates steady at about 3.6%, reflecting a split among policymakers between those wanting further cuts and those prioritizing inflation control. This maintained market expectations for limited rate cuts in 2026.
Markets await Federal Reserve decision amid high inflation and cooling job market
1 (25 bps) dips to 10%4%
Ahead of the January 2026 FOMC meeting, investors were uncertain whether the Fed would cut rates or hold steady due to persistent inflation and a cooling labor market, influencing market pricing for rate cuts.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady in January 2026 meeting
0 (0 bps) dips to 3%3%
The Fed decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, signaling a pause in easing and emphasizing data dependency for future moves. The decision reflected cautious optimism amid elevated uncertainty and mixed economic signals.
FOMC holds federal funds rate steady at 3.5-3.75% in January meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5 to 3.75 percent, signaling a pause in rate changes. Market-based measures indicated expectations of one to two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2026, reflecting some anticipation of easing later in the year.
Fed holds rates steady amid inflation and cooling job market
1 (25 bps) drops to 9%5%
At the January 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed kept rates unchanged, signaling caution and the need for more data before cutting rates. This tempered expectations for immediate cuts in 2026.
Fed Vice Chair Bowman highlights fragile labor market and inflation progress
0 (0 bps) rises to 5%1%
Vice Chair Bowman emphasized the fragile labor market and inflation nearing the Fed's 2% goal, suggesting cautious policy with no immediate rate cuts. This reinforced market expectations of steady rates in early 2026.
Fed Vice Chair Bowman signals three rate cuts expected in 2026 but no immediate action
0 (0 bps) rises to 24%3%
In a speech, Vice Chair Bowman outlined expectations for three 25 basis point rate cuts in 2026 but emphasized the timing was uncertain, with the Fed holding rates steady at the January meeting. This tempered market expectations for immediate cuts, contributing to price declines for 1 or more cuts and supporting the zero cuts option.
Fed Vice Chair Bowman highlights fragile labor market and need for cautious policy
1 (25 bps) dips to 8%1%
Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman emphasized labor market fragility and the need for cautious monetary policy, noting that previous rate cuts brought rates closer to neutral but further easing was still needed. This underscored ongoing concerns about economic conditions, influencing market expectations for limited rate cuts in 2026.
Fed Vice Chair Bowman signals three rate cuts expected in 2026
3 (75 bps) drops to 24%14%
Vice Chair Michelle Bowman stated in a speech that her Summary of Economic Projections included three rate cuts in 2026, reflecting a view that policy was moderately restrictive and that cuts would be implemented gradually throughout the year. This set early market expectations for multiple cuts.
Fed Vice Chair Bowman signals three rate cuts expected in 2026
1 (25 bps) drops to 14%12%
In a speech, Vice Chair Bowman indicated her Summary of Economic Projections included three rate cuts in 2026, reflecting expectations for easing monetary policy later in the year. This initially supported some market pricing for rate cuts but left timing uncertain.
Congressional Budget Office projects Federal Reserve to cut rates in 2026
1 (25 bps) drops to 14%12%
The nonpartisan CBO forecasted that the Fed would cut short-term rates in 2026, settling at 3.4% by 2028, supporting expectations of at least one cut despite ongoing inflation and economic uncertainties.
Federal Reserve signals potential interest rate cuts ahead in 2026
Minutes from the December 2025 FOMC meeting revealed the Fed is contemplating at least one further rate cut in 2026, contingent on inflation trends. The Fed's readiness to adapt to changing economic conditions suggested potential easing later in the year, though internal disagreements and leadership changes added uncertainty.
FOMC minutes reveal internal debate on pace of rate cuts in 2026
1 (25 bps) dips to 9%1%
Minutes from December FOMC meeting indicated the Fed is contemplating at least one rate cut depending on inflation trajectory, but committee members showed differing views on timing and extent, adding uncertainty to market expectations.
Fed ends 2025 with three rate cuts, markets price two more in 2026
2 (50 bps) drops to 28%8%
By the end of 2025, the Fed had cut rates three times by 25 basis points each, lowering the target range to 3.5%-3.75%. Market participants expected two additional 25bps cuts in 2026 amid economic challenges including inflation and a softening job market.
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25bps to 3.5%-3.75% amid economic uncertainty
1 (25 bps) drops to 14%12%
The Fed lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75% in December 2025, citing moderate economic expansion and elevated inflation. This cut marked the third consecutive 25bps reduction, setting the stage for market expectations of potential further cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve signals one rate cut in 2026 amid inflation and labor market concerns
1 (25 bps) drops to 14%12%
At the December 2025 FOMC meeting, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75% and projected just one additional quarter-point cut in 2026, citing ongoing inflation above target and a cooling labor market. This set market expectations for a limited easing path in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2025
1 (25 bps) dips to 7%4%
The Fed announced a 25 bps rate cut in December 2025, marking the third consecutive cut after prior reductions in September and November. This final 2025 cut reflected concerns over slowing job growth and inflation pressures, setting the stage for market expectations of limited cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve signals one rate cut in 2026 amid labor market cooling
1 (25 bps) dips to 10%2%
The Fed cut rates to 3.5%-3.75% and projected only one 25 basis point cut in 2026, citing concerns about labor market cooling and inflation pressures from tariffs. This cautious outlook anchored market expectations for minimal easing.
Federal Reserve signals one rate cut in 2026 amid labor market cooling
1 (25 bps) drops to 14%12%
The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75% and projected only one additional cut in 2026, citing concerns about labor market cooling and inflation pressures from tariffs. This set market expectations for a limited easing path in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 bps in December 2025, final cut of the year
The Fed announced a 25 basis point rate cut in December 2025, the third consecutive cut, lowering the target range to 3.50%-3.75%. This reinforced market expectations for additional cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve projects only one rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty
1 (25 bps) drops to 22%14%
The Fed's December 2025 Summary of Economic Projections showed a median forecast of just one 25 basis point cut in 2026, reflecting slower progress on inflation and economic uncertainty. This led markets to reduce expectations for multiple cuts.
Fed signals slower pace of easing after December rate cut
Following the December 10 rate cut, Fed Chair Powell emphasized a cautious approach to future cuts due to persistent inflation and labor market risks. The Fed announced Treasury bill purchases to maintain market functioning, signaling a pause in aggressive easing and reducing market expectations for multiple cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75%, signals cautious 2026 outlook
1 (25 bps) dips to 6%3%
The Fed delivered a third consecutive 25-bps cut and forecasted just one rate cut in 2026 amid labor market cooling concerns and inflation pressures. The committee was divided, reflecting uncertainty about the timing and extent of future cuts.
Federal Reserve cuts target range for federal funds rate by 25 basis points
0 (0 bps) drops to 8%13%
On December 10, 2025, the Fed lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.5% to 3.75%, marking part of a series of cuts aimed at supporting the labor market while managing inflation risks. This action reflected concerns about slowing job gains and elevated inflation, influencing market expectations for further cuts.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell signals cautious outlook on future rate cuts
0 (0 bps) rises to 4%1%
In his post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the rate cut as "risk management" amid a labor market facing downside risks and inflation remaining somewhat elevated. He indicated the policy rate is now in neutral territory, suggesting a more cautious approach to future cuts. This tempered market expectations for multiple rate cuts in 2026.
Fed cuts federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75%
The Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in December 2025, signaling a cautious easing to support economic activity and stabilize labor market conditions. This cut set the stage for market expectations of potential further cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75%
The Fed reduced its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on December 10, 2025, marking the third cut in 2025 and signaling a cautious approach to future easing. This move lowered borrowing costs and was accompanied by projections of only one additional cut in 2026, influencing market expectations toward limited rate reductions.
Federal Reserve cuts rates but signals likely pause and projects only one cut in 2026
0 (0 bps) rises to 5%3%
The Federal Reserve delivered a 25-basis-point rate cut but issued new economic projections showing that the median policymaker expects only one quarter-point reduction in 2026, prompting markets to scale back expectations of aggressive easing.
Fed cuts rates by 25bps but signals only one cut in 2026 amid inflation concerns
0 (0 bps) plunges to 3%33%
In December 2025, the Fed cut rates by 25 bps but projected only one 25 bps cut in 2026, reflecting concerns about persistent inflation and economic uncertainty. This official projection shaped market expectations, reducing the likelihood of multiple cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts federal funds rate by 25 basis points
On December 10, 2025, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%–3.75%, marking the third cut in 2025. This move aimed to support economic growth amid slowing job gains and elevated inflation, but the Fed signaled a slower pace of easing ahead, projecting only one additional cut in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points, signals slower pace of easing ahead
The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive reduction since September. Updated projections indicated expectations for only one additional 25 basis point cut in 2026. Chair Powell described the policy as 'risk management' amid elevated inflation and a weakening labor market, leading markets to price in fewer cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points
The Federal Reserve lowered its federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 3.50%–3.75%, marking the start of a rate-cutting cycle. Updated projections indicated expectations for only one additional cut in 2026, reflecting concerns about a slowing labor market and elevated inflation. This event caused market prices to shift toward fewer cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25bps to 3.5%-3.75%
The Fed delivered its third consecutive 25 basis point rate cut in December 2025, lowering the target range to 3.5%-3.75%. This final cut of 2025 was driven by slowing job growth and elevated inflation, with projections suggesting only one additional cut in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points
The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, marking the third cut in 2025. This move aimed to support the economy amid slowing job gains and elevated inflation, signaling a potential pause in rate cuts going forward.
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points in December 2025 meeting
2 (50 bps) drops to 22%14%
In December 2025, the Fed lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, marking the start of a series of cuts aimed at supporting the economy. This move set the stage for market expectations of further cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve projects only one rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty
1 (25 bps) plunges to 10%16%
After the December 2025 meeting, the Fed projected just one 25 basis point rate cut in 2026, reflecting concerns about inflation remaining somewhat elevated and a cautious stance on further reductions. This tempered market expectations for multiple cuts.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid economic uncertainty and inflation concerns
0 (0 bps) rises to 5%2%
The Fed left rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% in December 2025, signaling caution due to inflation remaining above target and uncertainty from geopolitical risks. This pause tempered market expectations for multiple rate cuts in 2026.
Fed cuts interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2025
The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on December 10, 2025, marking the third rate reduction of the year. This move was intended to support the economy amid mixed inflation and labor market signals, but the Fed signaled a pause on further cuts until clearer data emerged, tempering expectations for multiple cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve signals cautious outlook with one rate cut forecast for 2026
1 (25 bps) drops to 14%12%
At the December 2025 meeting, the Fed cut rates again but projected only one 25 basis point cut in 2026 amid inflation concerns and economic uncertainty. This tempered market expectations for multiple cuts and introduced caution into the outlook for 2026.
Federal Reserve projects only one rate cut for 2026 amid economic uncertainty
0 (0 bps) drops to 8%13%
The Fed's December 2025 meeting left rates unchanged and projected only one 25 basis point cut for 2026, reflecting uncertainty from geopolitical risks and inflation remaining above target. This tempered market expectations for multiple cuts in 2026, causing a pullback in cut probabilities.
Federal Reserve cuts rates for third consecutive time, signals pause
3 (75 bps) dips to 21%2%
In December 2025, the Fed cut rates by another 25 bps to 3.5%-3.75%, the third consecutive cut, but signaled a pause and highlighted uncertainty due to incomplete economic data and internal divisions, tempering expectations for aggressive cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points
The Fed lowered the federal funds rate to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive reduction, signaling one more cut in 2026 and maintaining a cautious approach amid inflation and labor market concerns.
Federal Reserve cuts federal funds rate by 0.25% to 3.50-3.75%
3 (75 bps) plunges to 0%50%
The FOMC lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, citing a softening labor market and elevated unemployment risks, signaling one more cut in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75%, signals cautious outlook for 2026
1 (25 bps) drops to 26%10%
The Fed delivered its third consecutive 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the target range to 3.5%-3.75%, but signaled uncertainty about further cuts in 2026 amid elevated inflation and divided committee views. This move initially supported market expectations for limited rate cuts in 2026.
Fed signals only one rate cut in 2026 amid inflation and labor market concerns
1 (25 bps) plunges to 9%17%
Following the December 2025 meeting, the Fed projected just one 25 basis point cut in 2026, reflecting cautious optimism about inflation slowing and economic growth. This guidance shaped market expectations, reducing the likelihood of multiple cuts.
Federal Reserve cuts rates for third consecutive meeting to 3.5%-3.75%
In December 2025, the Fed made a third consecutive 25 basis point cut, lowering rates to 3.5%-3.75%. This decision was amid moderate economic expansion but rising inflation and unemployment risks. The move was not unanimous, reflecting some division within the Fed on the pace of cuts.
Federal Reserve cuts benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points
0 (0 bps) rises to 4%1%
On December 10, 2025, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 3.50%–3.75%, marking the third consecutive reduction since September. This move aimed to support the labor market amid slowing job gains and elevated inflation, signaling expectations for only one additional cut in 2026. The decision influenced market pricing, initially supporting modest expectations for rate cuts in the following year.
Federal Reserve delivers third consecutive 25bps rate cut in December 2025
The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third cut in 2025. This move was supported by most officials but faced dissent from some members favoring either a larger cut or no change. The cut aimed to support a softening labor market amid persistent inflation.
Federal Reserve cuts rates for third time in 2025, signals cautious outlook for 2026
1 (25 bps) drops to 21%5%
The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in December 2025, marking the third cut that year, but policymakers showed division on future cuts amid inflation concerns and labor market weakness. This set early expectations for limited rate cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the third time in 2025 to 3.5%-3.75%
2 (50 bps) dips to 23%2%
The Fed cut rates by 25 bps in December 2025, marking the third cut that year, aiming to support a slowing economy and a flagging job market. This reinforced market expectations for some easing but also highlighted internal Fed divisions and uncertainty about future cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the third time in 2025
5 (125 bps) plunges to 10%26%
In early December 2025, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points again to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, marking the third cut that year. This move was aimed at supporting a slowing labor market and moderating inflation, reinforcing expectations for limited cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the third time in 2025 to 3.5%-3.75%
1 (25 bps) rises to 14%4%
The Fed cut rates by 25bps for the third time in 2025, lowering borrowing costs amid moderate economic expansion and inflation above target. This reinforced market expectations for limited rate cuts in 2026, with some dissent among Fed members reflecting uncertainty.
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 bps in December 2025, final cut of the year
1 (25 bps) rises to 11%4%
The Fed announced a 25-basis-point cut in December 2025, the third consecutive reduction following earlier cuts in September and November. This move aimed to support economic activity amid slowing job growth and inflation pressures, reinforcing market expectations for limited cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%
On October 29, 2025, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00%, aiming to support economic growth and the labor market amid slowing job gains and elevated inflation.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%
1 (25 bps) drops to 14%12%
The Fed cut rates by a quarter point, signaling confidence that inflation was easing but emphasizing uncertainty in the outlook. This marked the second consecutive 25-bps cut and indicated the start of an easing cycle, which initially supported expectations for future cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%
The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, signaling confidence that inflation was easing and shifting focus toward supporting economic activity. This marked the start of an easing cycle with ongoing risks to the labor market noted.
Federal Reserve announces second 25 bps rate cut of 2025
2 (50 bps) drops to 25%11%
The Fed lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.0–4.25%, marking the second cut of the year. This action signaled a cautious approach to support growth while monitoring inflation, influencing market expectations for further cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%
2 (50 bps) drops to 19%7%
The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, marking the second consecutive cut and signaling the start of an easing cycle amid easing inflation and labor market risks. This move set expectations for further cuts but also highlighted uncertainty about the pace of future reductions.
Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points in October 2025 Meeting
0 (0 bps) plunges to 6%15%
The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in its October 28-29, 2025 meeting, marking the first rate cut of the year. This move was aimed at supporting growth while monitoring inflation, which remained above the 2% target. The announcement influenced market expectations for further cuts.
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25bps to 3.75%-4.00%, signaling easing cycle
5 (125 bps) plunges to 7%29%
The Fed cut rates by another 25 basis points in October 2025, lowering the federal funds rate to the lowest level since late 2022. This second consecutive cut confirmed the start of an easing cycle, with the Fed aiming to balance inflation control and economic growth amid ongoing uncertainty.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%
3 (75 bps) plunges to 21%17%
The Fed cut rates by a quarter point in late October 2025, marking the second consecutive cut and signaling the start of an easing cycle amid easing inflation and labor market concerns. This move influenced market expectations for further cuts but also highlighted uncertainty about future rate changes.
Federal Reserve lowers interest rates by 25 basis points in October 2025 meeting
2 (50 bps) jumps to 26%6%
The Fed reduced the federal funds rate by another 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00%, marking the second cut in 2025 and continuing the easing cycle amid mixed economic signals and ongoing government shutdown effects.
Federal Reserve delivers second consecutive 25 basis point rate cut
4 (100 bps) plunges to 11%25%
The Fed cut rates by another 25 basis points in late October 2025, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%. This confirmed the easing cycle and raised expectations for further cuts, influencing market pricing for 2026 rate cuts.
Federal Reserve cuts key benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points in October
2 (50 bps) plunges to 16%20%
The Fed reduced rates by another 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00%, the second consecutive cut in 2025, reflecting concerns about inflation and labor market conditions. Market expectations for further cuts increased but with some dissent among officials.
Federal Reserve announces another 25 basis point rate cut to 3.75%-4.00%
0 (0 bps) dips to 3%3%
The Fed cut rates again to ease financial conditions amid economic softening, with inflation still above target. Chair Jerome Powell noted the labor market cooling and inflation remaining elevated, signaling a cautious approach to further easing.
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%
0 (0 bps) drops to 8%13%
The Fed cut interest rates by 25 bps in late October 2025, signaling the start of an easing cycle and raising expectations for possible further cuts. This move influenced market pricing for 2026 rate cuts, initially supporting the possibility of multiple cuts.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points in October 2025
1 (25 bps) drops to 14%12%
Following the September cut, the Federal Reserve again lowered rates by 25 basis points in October 2025, continuing its easing cycle to support the economy amid inflation and labor market uncertainties.
Federal Reserve announces 25 basis point rate cut amid economic pressures
In September 2025, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, the first reduction in some time, signaling a positive but cautious direction for inflation and borrowing costs. This move raised market hopes for further cuts in 2026, influencing derivative hedging demand and rate-sensitive sectors.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points amid easing inflation
2 (50 bps) plunges to 20%16%
The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the start of an easing cycle as inflation showed signs of abating. This move was seen as a cautious step to balance inflation control with economic support, influencing market expectations for future cuts.
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