Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 at a 39.3% implied probability, reflecting a hawkish shift driven by March 2026 CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% amid oil price spikes from Iran-related geopolitical tensions—coupled with stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs and unemployment ticking down to 4.3%. This data has eroded expectations for easing from the current 3.50%-3.75% fed funds range, diverging from the March FOMC dot plot's median projection of one 25-basis-point cut to 3.4% by year-end. One cut (26.5%) remains the next-most likely, with the April 28-29 meeting poised for no change amid persistent inflation risks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato0 (0 bps) 39.3%
1 (25 pb) 27%
2 (50 punti base) 16%
3 (75 pb) 9%
$19,216,593 Vol.
$19,216,593 Vol.
31 dic 2026
0 (0 bps)
39%
1 (25 pb)
27%
2 (50 punti base)
16%
3 (75 pb)
9%
4 (100 bps)
3%
5 (125 punti base)
1%
6 (150 pb)
1%
7 (175 pb)
<1%
8 (200 pb)
<1%
9 (225 pb)
<1%
10 (250 punti base)
<1%
11 (275 pb)
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
1%
0 (0 bps) 39.3%
1 (25 pb) 27%
2 (50 punti base) 16%
3 (75 pb) 9%
$19,216,593 Vol.
$19,216,593 Vol.
31 dic 2026
0 (0 bps)
$3,198,550 Vol.
39%
1 (25 pb)
$1,039,683 Vol.
27%
2 (50 punti base)
$1,011,406 Vol.
16%
3 (75 pb)
$933,716 Vol.
9%
4 (100 bps)
$965,253 Vol.
3%
5 (125 punti base)
$1,055,879 Vol.
1%
6 (150 pb)
$2,097,504 Vol.
1%
7 (175 pb)
$947,297 Vol.
<1%
8 (200 pb)
$1,221,445 Vol.
<1%
9 (225 pb)
$1,207,582 Vol.
<1%
10 (250 punti base)
$1,694,166 Vol.
<1%
11 (275 pb)
$2,012,089 Vol.
<1%
12+ (300+ bps)
$1,833,855 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 at a 39.3% implied probability, reflecting a hawkish shift driven by March 2026 CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% amid oil price spikes from Iran-related geopolitical tensions—coupled with stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs and unemployment ticking down to 4.3%. This data has eroded expectations for easing from the current 3.50%-3.75% fed funds range, diverging from the March FOMC dot plot's median projection of one 25-basis-point cut to 3.4% by year-end. One cut (26.5%) remains the next-most likely, with the April 28-29 meeting poised for no change amid persistent inflation risks.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Mercato aperto: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$19,216,593Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 at a 39.3% implied probability, reflecting a hawkish shift driven by March 2026 CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% amid oil price spikes from Iran-related geopolitical tensions—coupled with stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs and unemployment ticking down to 4.3%. This data has eroded expectations for easing from the current 3.50%-3.75% fed funds range, diverging from the March FOMC dot plot's median projection of one 25-basis-point cut to 3.4% by year-end. One cut (26.5%) remains the next-most likely, with the April 28-29 meeting poised for no change amid persistent inflation risks.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$19,216,593Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 at a 39.3% implied probability, reflecting a hawkish shift driven by March 2026 CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% amid oil price spikes from Iran-related geopolitical tensions—coupled with stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs and unemployment ticking down to 4.3%. This data has eroded expectations for easing from the current 3.50%-3.75% fed funds range, diverging from the March FOMC dot plot's median projection of one 25-basis-point cut to 3.4% by year-end. One cut (26.5%) remains the next-most likely, with the April 28-29 meeting poised for no change amid persistent inflation risks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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