The 10-year Treasury yield, trading near 4.65-4.71% in mid-August 2026, faces upward pressure from sticky core inflation near 3.4%—well above the Fed’s 2% target—combined with an elevated term premium and heavy supply from fiscal deficits exceeding $40 trillion in debt. Recent geopolitical supply shocks and resilient growth have reinforced market expectations for a patient or even hawkish Fed under Chair Warsh, with the funds rate holding near 3.63% and limited cuts priced in through year-end. Forecasts project modest declines toward 4.2-4.5% by early 2027, but persistent above-target CPI prints, Treasury auctions, and FOMC decisions on rate path versus inflation normalization remain key swing factors for any deeper lows before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$225,354 Vol.
30 dic 2026
3,9%
14%
3,8%
4%
3,7%
2%
3,6%
5%
3,5%
1%
3,0%
2%
2,0%
4%
1,0%
2%
$225,354 Vol.
3,9%
$44,197 Vol.
14%
3,8%
$41,312 Vol.
4%
3,7%
$27,383 Vol.
2%
3,6%
$5,587 Vol.
5%
3,5%
$33,065 Vol.
1%
3,0%
$917 Vol.
2%
2,0%
$564 Vol.
4%
1,0%
$40,570 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield, trading near 4.65-4.71% in mid-August 2026, faces upward pressure from sticky core inflation near 3.4%—well above the Fed’s 2% target—combined with an elevated term premium and heavy supply from fiscal deficits exceeding $40 trillion in debt. Recent geopolitical supply shocks and resilient growth have reinforced market expectations for a patient or even hawkish Fed under Chair Warsh, with the funds rate holding near 3.63% and limited cuts priced in through year-end. Forecasts project modest declines toward 4.2-4.5% by early 2027, but persistent above-target CPI prints, Treasury auctions, and FOMC decisions on rate path versus inflation normalization remain key swing factors for any deeper lows before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Mercato aperto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
Volume
$225,354Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield, trading near 4.65-4.71% in mid-August 2026, faces upward pressure from sticky core inflation near 3.4%—well above the Fed’s 2% target—combined with an elevated term premium and heavy supply from fiscal deficits exceeding $40 trillion in debt. Recent geopolitical supply shocks and resilient growth have reinforced market expectations for a patient or even hawkish Fed under Chair Warsh, with the funds rate holding near 3.63% and limited cuts priced in through year-end. Forecasts project modest declines toward 4.2-4.5% by early 2027, but persistent above-target CPI prints, Treasury auctions, and FOMC decisions on rate path versus inflation normalization remain key swing factors for any deeper lows before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volume
$225,354Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield, trading near 4.65-4.71% in mid-August 2026, faces upward pressure from sticky core inflation near 3.4%—well above the Fed’s 2% target—combined with an elevated term premium and heavy supply from fiscal deficits exceeding $40 trillion in debt. Recent geopolitical supply shocks and resilient growth have reinforced market expectations for a patient or even hawkish Fed under Chair Warsh, with the funds rate holding near 3.63% and limited cuts priced in through year-end. Forecasts project modest declines toward 4.2-4.5% by early 2027, but persistent above-target CPI prints, Treasury auctions, and FOMC decisions on rate path versus inflation normalization remain key swing factors for any deeper lows before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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