The absence of any formal charges, investigations, or credible allegations against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell underpins the 97.4% market-implied probability that he will not be incarcerated before 2027. As the central bank’s leader through May 2026, Powell faces no documented legal exposure from regulatory, congressional, or law-enforcement channels, while institutional protections and norms around senior U.S. officials further reduce the likelihood of criminal proceedings. Trader consensus reflects these structural barriers rather than forecasts of future conduct. Tail-risk scenarios remain conceivable only in the event of an unprecedented constitutional crisis or politically motivated prosecution, outcomes that lack precedent in modern U.S. history and would require multiple extraordinary developments to materialize.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNUOVO
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31 dic 2026
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31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The absence of any formal charges, investigations, or credible allegations against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell underpins the 97.4% market-implied probability that he will not be incarcerated before 2027. As the central bank’s leader through May 2026, Powell faces no documented legal exposure from regulatory, congressional, or law-enforcement channels, while institutional protections and norms around senior U.S. officials further reduce the likelihood of criminal proceedings. Trader consensus reflects these structural barriers rather than forecasts of future conduct. Tail-risk scenarios remain conceivable only in the event of an unprecedented constitutional crisis or politically motivated prosecution, outcomes that lack precedent in modern U.S. history and would require multiple extraordinary developments to materialize.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
Volume
$3,761Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The absence of any formal charges, investigations, or credible allegations against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell underpins the 97.4% market-implied probability that he will not be incarcerated before 2027. As the central bank’s leader through May 2026, Powell faces no documented legal exposure from regulatory, congressional, or law-enforcement channels, while institutional protections and norms around senior U.S. officials further reduce the likelihood of criminal proceedings. Trader consensus reflects these structural barriers rather than forecasts of future conduct. Tail-risk scenarios remain conceivable only in the event of an unprecedented constitutional crisis or politically motivated prosecution, outcomes that lack precedent in modern U.S. history and would require multiple extraordinary developments to materialize.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,761Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The absence of any formal charges, investigations, or credible allegations against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell underpins the 97.4% market-implied probability that he will not be incarcerated before 2027. As the central bank’s leader through May 2026, Powell faces no documented legal exposure from regulatory, congressional, or law-enforcement channels, while institutional protections and norms around senior U.S. officials further reduce the likelihood of criminal proceedings. Trader consensus reflects these structural barriers rather than forecasts of future conduct. Tail-risk scenarios remain conceivable only in the event of an unprecedented constitutional crisis or politically motivated prosecution, outcomes that lack precedent in modern U.S. history and would require multiple extraordinary developments to materialize.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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