**Elevated inflation pressures from Middle East supply disruptions and energy costs, alongside resilient economic growth, are anchoring the 70.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting.** The federal funds rate has held in the 3.50%-3.75% range since late 2025 under Chair Kevin Warsh, with recent projections from officials showing a median path toward modest tightening by year-end and some participants favoring a 25 basis point hike. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment near 4.1% and muted wage pressures, have reduced downside risks to employment and allowed policymakers to prioritize returning inflation to the 2% target. Trader consensus reflected in these odds incorporates the removal of forward guidance, shifting focus to incoming data ahead of the September meeting, while the smaller probabilities for rate cuts or larger moves highlight limited expectations for aggressive policy shifts given current inflation readings near 4%.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoDecisione della Fed in ottobre?
Decisione della Fed in ottobre?
Nessun cambiamento 71%
Aumento di 25 punti base 27%
Riduzione di 25 punti base 3.9%
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base 1.1%
$1,031,070 Vol.
$1,031,070 Vol.
28 ott 2026
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
1%
Riduzione di 25 punti base
4%
Nessun cambiamento
71%
Aumento di 25 punti base
27%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
1%
Nessun cambiamento 71%
Aumento di 25 punti base 27%
Riduzione di 25 punti base 3.9%
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base 1.1%
$1,031,070 Vol.
$1,031,070 Vol.
28 ott 2026
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
$175,970 Vol.
1%
Riduzione di 25 punti base
$365,712 Vol.
4%
Nessun cambiamento
$188,204 Vol.
71%
Aumento di 25 punti base
$179,376 Vol.
27%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
$121,808 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Elevated inflation pressures from Middle East supply disruptions and energy costs, alongside resilient economic growth, are anchoring the 70.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting.** The federal funds rate has held in the 3.50%-3.75% range since late 2025 under Chair Kevin Warsh, with recent projections from officials showing a median path toward modest tightening by year-end and some participants favoring a 25 basis point hike. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment near 4.1% and muted wage pressures, have reduced downside risks to employment and allowed policymakers to prioritize returning inflation to the 2% target. Trader consensus reflected in these odds incorporates the removal of forward guidance, shifting focus to incoming data ahead of the September meeting, while the smaller probabilities for rate cuts or larger moves highlight limited expectations for aggressive policy shifts given current inflation readings near 4%.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volume
$1,031,070Data di fine
28 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Elevated inflation pressures from Middle East supply disruptions and energy costs, alongside resilient economic growth, are anchoring the 70.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting.** The federal funds rate has held in the 3.50%-3.75% range since late 2025 under Chair Kevin Warsh, with recent projections from officials showing a median path toward modest tightening by year-end and some participants favoring a 25 basis point hike. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment near 4.1% and muted wage pressures, have reduced downside risks to employment and allowed policymakers to prioritize returning inflation to the 2% target. Trader consensus reflected in these odds incorporates the removal of forward guidance, shifting focus to incoming data ahead of the September meeting, while the smaller probabilities for rate cuts or larger moves highlight limited expectations for aggressive policy shifts given current inflation readings near 4%.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$1,031,070Data di fine
28 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...**Elevated inflation pressures from Middle East supply disruptions and energy costs, alongside resilient economic growth, are anchoring the 70.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting.** The federal funds rate has held in the 3.50%-3.75% range since late 2025 under Chair Kevin Warsh, with recent projections from officials showing a median path toward modest tightening by year-end and some participants favoring a 25 basis point hike. Stable labor market conditions, with unemployment near 4.1% and muted wage pressures, have reduced downside risks to employment and allowed policymakers to prioritize returning inflation to the 2% target. Trader consensus reflected in these odds incorporates the removal of forward guidance, shifting focus to incoming data ahead of the September meeting, while the smaller probabilities for rate cuts or larger moves highlight limited expectations for aggressive policy shifts given current inflation readings near 4%.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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