Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% chance of no ECB rate cut in 2026, reflecting sticky Eurozone inflation above the 2% target and geopolitical pressures delaying monetary easing. At its March 19 Governing Council meeting, the ECB held the deposit rate at 2% while raising its 2026 inflation projection to 2.6% from 1.9%, citing an energy price surge tied to the Iran conflict. Flash Eurostat data showed March headline inflation at 2.5%, up from February's 1.9%, with core inflation persistent. Economists now forecast rates steady through year-end or higher, as inflation lingers until mid-2027; the next policy decision looms April 30.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$25,095 Vol.
$25,095 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$25,095 Vol.
$25,095 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% chance of no ECB rate cut in 2026, reflecting sticky Eurozone inflation above the 2% target and geopolitical pressures delaying monetary easing. At its March 19 Governing Council meeting, the ECB held the deposit rate at 2% while raising its 2026 inflation projection to 2.6% from 1.9%, citing an energy price surge tied to the Iran conflict. Flash Eurostat data showed March headline inflation at 2.5%, up from February's 1.9%, with core inflation persistent. Economists now forecast rates steady through year-end or higher, as inflation lingers until mid-2027; the next policy decision looms April 30.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$25,095Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% chance of no ECB rate cut in 2026, reflecting sticky Eurozone inflation above the 2% target and geopolitical pressures delaying monetary easing. At its March 19 Governing Council meeting, the ECB held the deposit rate at 2% while raising its 2026 inflation projection to 2.6% from 1.9%, citing an energy price surge tied to the Iran conflict. Flash Eurostat data showed March headline inflation at 2.5%, up from February's 1.9%, with core inflation persistent. Economists now forecast rates steady through year-end or higher, as inflation lingers until mid-2027; the next policy decision looms April 30.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$25,095Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76.5% chance of no ECB rate cut in 2026, reflecting sticky Eurozone inflation above the 2% target and geopolitical pressures delaying monetary easing. At its March 19 Governing Council meeting, the ECB held the deposit rate at 2% while raising its 2026 inflation projection to 2.6% from 1.9%, citing an energy price surge tied to the Iran conflict. Flash Eurostat data showed March headline inflation at 2.5%, up from February's 1.9%, with core inflation persistent. Economists now forecast rates steady through year-end or higher, as inflation lingers until mid-2027; the next policy decision looms April 30.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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