Euro area inflation accelerated to a 3.3% flash reading in August 2026, driven by energy prices amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, prompting the ECB to hike its deposit facility rate in June and position for another 25 basis point increase at the September 10 meeting. With headline and core measures remaining above the 2% target and the economy displaying resilience, trader consensus reflects a market-implied probability exceeding 90% against any 2026 rate cut. Recent ECB communications emphasize data-dependent tightening to anchor long-term expectations, while futures curves price further hikes rather than easing. A swift de-escalation in energy costs or sharper growth slowdown could reopen cut discussions, though current trajectories support elevated policy rates through year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
7% probabilità
$31,829 Vol.
$31,829 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
7% probabilità
$31,829 Vol.
$31,829 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Euro area inflation accelerated to a 3.3% flash reading in August 2026, driven by energy prices amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, prompting the ECB to hike its deposit facility rate in June and position for another 25 basis point increase at the September 10 meeting. With headline and core measures remaining above the 2% target and the economy displaying resilience, trader consensus reflects a market-implied probability exceeding 90% against any 2026 rate cut. Recent ECB communications emphasize data-dependent tightening to anchor long-term expectations, while futures curves price further hikes rather than easing. A swift de-escalation in energy costs or sharper growth slowdown could reopen cut discussions, though current trajectories support elevated policy rates through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$31,829Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Euro area inflation accelerated to a 3.3% flash reading in August 2026, driven by energy prices amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, prompting the ECB to hike its deposit facility rate in June and position for another 25 basis point increase at the September 10 meeting. With headline and core measures remaining above the 2% target and the economy displaying resilience, trader consensus reflects a market-implied probability exceeding 90% against any 2026 rate cut. Recent ECB communications emphasize data-dependent tightening to anchor long-term expectations, while futures curves price further hikes rather than easing. A swift de-escalation in energy costs or sharper growth slowdown could reopen cut discussions, though current trajectories support elevated policy rates through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$31,829Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Euro area inflation accelerated to a 3.3% flash reading in August 2026, driven by energy prices amid the ongoing Middle East conflict, prompting the ECB to hike its deposit facility rate in June and position for another 25 basis point increase at the September 10 meeting. With headline and core measures remaining above the 2% target and the economy displaying resilience, trader consensus reflects a market-implied probability exceeding 90% against any 2026 rate cut. Recent ECB communications emphasize data-dependent tightening to anchor long-term expectations, while futures curves price further hikes rather than easing. A swift de-escalation in energy costs or sharper growth slowdown could reopen cut discussions, though current trajectories support elevated policy rates through year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti