Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict, have driven sharp energy price increases that lifted euro-area inflation projections to 2.6% for 2026. In response, the ECB has maintained its deposit facility rate at 2.00% through its April meeting and signaled a data-dependent tightening bias, with Governing Council members noting potential hikes if price pressures persist. Professional forecaster surveys and market pricing now anticipate one or two 25-basis-point increases this year rather than cuts. This combination of verified upside inflation risks and explicit policy signals underpins trader consensus that no rate cut will occur in 2026, though de-escalation in energy markets or softer core readings could still shift the outlook.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$28,063 Vol.
$28,063 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$28,063 Vol.
$28,063 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict, have driven sharp energy price increases that lifted euro-area inflation projections to 2.6% for 2026. In response, the ECB has maintained its deposit facility rate at 2.00% through its April meeting and signaled a data-dependent tightening bias, with Governing Council members noting potential hikes if price pressures persist. Professional forecaster surveys and market pricing now anticipate one or two 25-basis-point increases this year rather than cuts. This combination of verified upside inflation risks and explicit policy signals underpins trader consensus that no rate cut will occur in 2026, though de-escalation in energy markets or softer core readings could still shift the outlook.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$28,063Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict, have driven sharp energy price increases that lifted euro-area inflation projections to 2.6% for 2026. In response, the ECB has maintained its deposit facility rate at 2.00% through its April meeting and signaled a data-dependent tightening bias, with Governing Council members noting potential hikes if price pressures persist. Professional forecaster surveys and market pricing now anticipate one or two 25-basis-point increases this year rather than cuts. This combination of verified upside inflation risks and explicit policy signals underpins trader consensus that no rate cut will occur in 2026, though de-escalation in energy markets or softer core readings could still shift the outlook.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$28,063Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict, have driven sharp energy price increases that lifted euro-area inflation projections to 2.6% for 2026. In response, the ECB has maintained its deposit facility rate at 2.00% through its April meeting and signaled a data-dependent tightening bias, with Governing Council members noting potential hikes if price pressures persist. Professional forecaster surveys and market pricing now anticipate one or two 25-basis-point increases this year rather than cuts. This combination of verified upside inflation risks and explicit policy signals underpins trader consensus that no rate cut will occur in 2026, though de-escalation in energy markets or softer core readings could still shift the outlook.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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