Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 85.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven primarily by the March 17-18 FOMC meeting's dot plot, which median-projects the federal funds rate at 3.4% by year-end—below the current 3.5%-3.75% target range and 3.64% effective rate—signaling expectations of stability or modest easing amid balanced risks. Despite March CPI surging 3.3% year-over-year on a 10.9% energy spike from geopolitical oil shocks, recently released minutes show only "some" officials open to hikes, with the committee emphasizing data dependence and elevated uncertainty. Futures markets price a steady path near 3.6%, with the next FOMC in late April as a key catalyst for any sentiment shift.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$887,710 Vol.
$887,710 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Sì
$887,710 Vol.
$887,710 Vol.
9 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 85.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven primarily by the March 17-18 FOMC meeting's dot plot, which median-projects the federal funds rate at 3.4% by year-end—below the current 3.5%-3.75% target range and 3.64% effective rate—signaling expectations of stability or modest easing amid balanced risks. Despite March CPI surging 3.3% year-over-year on a 10.9% energy spike from geopolitical oil shocks, recently released minutes show only "some" officials open to hikes, with the committee emphasizing data dependence and elevated uncertainty. Futures markets price a steady path near 3.6%, with the next FOMC in late April as a key catalyst for any sentiment shift.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$887,710Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 85.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven primarily by the March 17-18 FOMC meeting's dot plot, which median-projects the federal funds rate at 3.4% by year-end—below the current 3.5%-3.75% target range and 3.64% effective rate—signaling expectations of stability or modest easing amid balanced risks. Despite March CPI surging 3.3% year-over-year on a 10.9% energy spike from geopolitical oil shocks, recently released minutes show only "some" officials open to hikes, with the committee emphasizing data dependence and elevated uncertainty. Futures markets price a steady path near 3.6%, with the next FOMC in late April as a key catalyst for any sentiment shift.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$887,710Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 85.5% implied probability against a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven primarily by the March 17-18 FOMC meeting's dot plot, which median-projects the federal funds rate at 3.4% by year-end—below the current 3.5%-3.75% target range and 3.64% effective rate—signaling expectations of stability or modest easing amid balanced risks. Despite March CPI surging 3.3% year-over-year on a 10.9% energy spike from geopolitical oil shocks, recently released minutes show only "some" officials open to hikes, with the committee emphasizing data dependence and elevated uncertainty. Futures markets price a steady path near 3.6%, with the next FOMC in late April as a key catalyst for any sentiment shift.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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