The Fed's June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections, released under new Chair Kevin Warsh, marked up 2026 headline PCE inflation to 3.6% and shifted the median federal funds rate path higher to 3.8% by year-end, with nine of 19 participants projecting at least one 25-basis-point hike. Persistent supply-driven price pressures from Middle East conflict and tariffs, alongside resilient economic activity and labor market data, have sustained hawkish trader sentiment despite the July hold at the 3.50%-3.75% target range. Markets currently price roughly 40-50 basis points of tightening for 2026, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus that further data supporting above-target inflation could prompt action at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting or later.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
71% probabilità
$8,763,390 Vol.
$8,763,390 Vol.
8 dic 2026
Sì
71% probabilità
$8,763,390 Vol.
$8,763,390 Vol.
8 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Fed's June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections, released under new Chair Kevin Warsh, marked up 2026 headline PCE inflation to 3.6% and shifted the median federal funds rate path higher to 3.8% by year-end, with nine of 19 participants projecting at least one 25-basis-point hike. Persistent supply-driven price pressures from Middle East conflict and tariffs, alongside resilient economic activity and labor market data, have sustained hawkish trader sentiment despite the July hold at the 3.50%-3.75% target range. Markets currently price roughly 40-50 basis points of tightening for 2026, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus that further data supporting above-target inflation could prompt action at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting or later.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$8,763,390Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Fed's June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections, released under new Chair Kevin Warsh, marked up 2026 headline PCE inflation to 3.6% and shifted the median federal funds rate path higher to 3.8% by year-end, with nine of 19 participants projecting at least one 25-basis-point hike. Persistent supply-driven price pressures from Middle East conflict and tariffs, alongside resilient economic activity and labor market data, have sustained hawkish trader sentiment despite the July hold at the 3.50%-3.75% target range. Markets currently price roughly 40-50 basis points of tightening for 2026, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus that further data supporting above-target inflation could prompt action at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting or later.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$8,763,494Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The Fed's June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections, released under new Chair Kevin Warsh, marked up 2026 headline PCE inflation to 3.6% and shifted the median federal funds rate path higher to 3.8% by year-end, with nine of 19 participants projecting at least one 25-basis-point hike. Persistent supply-driven price pressures from Middle East conflict and tariffs, alongside resilient economic activity and labor market data, have sustained hawkish trader sentiment despite the July hold at the 3.50%-3.75% target range. Markets currently price roughly 40-50 basis points of tightening for 2026, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus that further data supporting above-target inflation could prompt action at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting or later.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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