Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with April 2026 CPI reaching 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price pressures, has driven the near-even 51.5% implied probability against a 2026 rate hike while supporting the current 3.50–3.75% federal funds rate. Resilient labor-market data, including May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000 and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, reinforce a data-dependent policy stance that limits room for near-term easing but has not yet tipped consensus toward tightening. Market pricing reflects this balance between sticky price pressures and stable employment conditions. The May CPI release on June 10, the June 16–17 FOMC meeting, and subsequent inflation and employment prints through the summer represent key catalysts that could shift trader sentiment decisively.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$1,488,548 Vol.
$1,488,548 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Sì
$1,488,548 Vol.
$1,488,548 Vol.
9 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with April 2026 CPI reaching 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price pressures, has driven the near-even 51.5% implied probability against a 2026 rate hike while supporting the current 3.50–3.75% federal funds rate. Resilient labor-market data, including May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000 and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, reinforce a data-dependent policy stance that limits room for near-term easing but has not yet tipped consensus toward tightening. Market pricing reflects this balance between sticky price pressures and stable employment conditions. The May CPI release on June 10, the June 16–17 FOMC meeting, and subsequent inflation and employment prints through the summer represent key catalysts that could shift trader sentiment decisively.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$1,488,548Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with April 2026 CPI reaching 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price pressures, has driven the near-even 51.5% implied probability against a 2026 rate hike while supporting the current 3.50–3.75% federal funds rate. Resilient labor-market data, including May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000 and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, reinforce a data-dependent policy stance that limits room for near-term easing but has not yet tipped consensus toward tightening. Market pricing reflects this balance between sticky price pressures and stable employment conditions. The May CPI release on June 10, the June 16–17 FOMC meeting, and subsequent inflation and employment prints through the summer represent key catalysts that could shift trader sentiment decisively.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,488,570Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with April 2026 CPI reaching 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price pressures, has driven the near-even 51.5% implied probability against a 2026 rate hike while supporting the current 3.50–3.75% federal funds rate. Resilient labor-market data, including May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000 and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, reinforce a data-dependent policy stance that limits room for near-term easing but has not yet tipped consensus toward tightening. Market pricing reflects this balance between sticky price pressures and stable employment conditions. The May CPI release on June 10, the June 16–17 FOMC meeting, and subsequent inflation and employment prints through the summer represent key catalysts that could shift trader sentiment decisively.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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