Strong August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 jobs, well above forecasts, have reinforced a resilient labor market and shifted trader consensus toward at least one 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike before year-end 2026, supporting the 70.5% market-implied probability for a 2026 increase. Persistent inflation risks from supply bottlenecks and Middle East tensions, combined with hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and the June dot plot showing most participants favoring higher rates, have prompted revisions from firms like UBS and BofA toward two hikes this year. The current target range of 3.50–3.75% leaves room for tightening, with the September FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI data serving as key near-term catalysts for further repricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
71% probabilità
$8,764,784 Vol.
$8,764,784 Vol.
8 dic 2026
Sì
71% probabilità
$8,764,784 Vol.
$8,764,784 Vol.
8 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Strong August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 jobs, well above forecasts, have reinforced a resilient labor market and shifted trader consensus toward at least one 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike before year-end 2026, supporting the 70.5% market-implied probability for a 2026 increase. Persistent inflation risks from supply bottlenecks and Middle East tensions, combined with hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and the June dot plot showing most participants favoring higher rates, have prompted revisions from firms like UBS and BofA toward two hikes this year. The current target range of 3.50–3.75% leaves room for tightening, with the September FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI data serving as key near-term catalysts for further repricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$8,764,784Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Strong August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 jobs, well above forecasts, have reinforced a resilient labor market and shifted trader consensus toward at least one 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike before year-end 2026, supporting the 70.5% market-implied probability for a 2026 increase. Persistent inflation risks from supply bottlenecks and Middle East tensions, combined with hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and the June dot plot showing most participants favoring higher rates, have prompted revisions from firms like UBS and BofA toward two hikes this year. The current target range of 3.50–3.75% leaves room for tightening, with the September FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI data serving as key near-term catalysts for further repricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$8,764,784Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Strong August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 jobs, well above forecasts, have reinforced a resilient labor market and shifted trader consensus toward at least one 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike before year-end 2026, supporting the 70.5% market-implied probability for a 2026 increase. Persistent inflation risks from supply bottlenecks and Middle East tensions, combined with hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and the June dot plot showing most participants favoring higher rates, have prompted revisions from firms like UBS and BofA toward two hikes this year. The current target range of 3.50–3.75% leaves room for tightening, with the September FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI data serving as key near-term catalysts for further repricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti