Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, propelled by a 17.9% surge in energy prices amid the Iran-related oil shock, has anchored trader sentiment against a Fed rate hike in 2026, resulting in the 51.5% market-implied probability for “No.” The FOMC’s March dot plot still projects one 25 basis point cut this year to a 3.25%-3.50% target range by year-end, yet futures and prediction markets now price limited further easing or even modest tightening if inflation remains sticky. With the federal funds rate holding steady at the 3.50%-3.75% range and the labor market resilient, upcoming May CPI data on June 10 and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting represent key swing events that could shift the closely balanced odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$1,488,584 Vol.
$1,488,584 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Sì
$1,488,584 Vol.
$1,488,584 Vol.
9 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, propelled by a 17.9% surge in energy prices amid the Iran-related oil shock, has anchored trader sentiment against a Fed rate hike in 2026, resulting in the 51.5% market-implied probability for “No.” The FOMC’s March dot plot still projects one 25 basis point cut this year to a 3.25%-3.50% target range by year-end, yet futures and prediction markets now price limited further easing or even modest tightening if inflation remains sticky. With the federal funds rate holding steady at the 3.50%-3.75% range and the labor market resilient, upcoming May CPI data on June 10 and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting represent key swing events that could shift the closely balanced odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$1,488,584Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, propelled by a 17.9% surge in energy prices amid the Iran-related oil shock, has anchored trader sentiment against a Fed rate hike in 2026, resulting in the 51.5% market-implied probability for “No.” The FOMC’s March dot plot still projects one 25 basis point cut this year to a 3.25%-3.50% target range by year-end, yet futures and prediction markets now price limited further easing or even modest tightening if inflation remains sticky. With the federal funds rate holding steady at the 3.50%-3.75% range and the labor market resilient, upcoming May CPI data on June 10 and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting represent key swing events that could shift the closely balanced odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,488,584Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, propelled by a 17.9% surge in energy prices amid the Iran-related oil shock, has anchored trader sentiment against a Fed rate hike in 2026, resulting in the 51.5% market-implied probability for “No.” The FOMC’s March dot plot still projects one 25 basis point cut this year to a 3.25%-3.50% target range by year-end, yet futures and prediction markets now price limited further easing or even modest tightening if inflation remains sticky. With the federal funds rate holding steady at the 3.50%-3.75% range and the labor market resilient, upcoming May CPI data on June 10 and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting represent key swing events that could shift the closely balanced odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti