Recent hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the August 31 Jackson Hole symposium, stressing that inflation remains too high and financial conditions insufficiently restrictive, have become the dominant driver of rate expectations. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% after the July FOMC meeting, markets via CME FedWatch now imply roughly a 60% chance of a 25 basis point hike at the September 15-16 meeting. Sticky inflation—May PCE at 4.1% year-over-year and core at 3.4%—alongside a labor market near full employment, supports the hawkish tilt despite some forecasts for no action through year-end. Traders will focus on upcoming CPI, employment data, and the September dot plot for clearer signals on the policy path.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$2,573,546 Vol.
8 dic 2026
Riunione di settembre
53%
Riunione di ottobre
60%
$2,573,546 Vol.
Riunione di settembre
$1,067,685 Vol.
53%
Riunione di ottobre
$545,860 Vol.
60%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the August 31 Jackson Hole symposium, stressing that inflation remains too high and financial conditions insufficiently restrictive, have become the dominant driver of rate expectations. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% after the July FOMC meeting, markets via CME FedWatch now imply roughly a 60% chance of a 25 basis point hike at the September 15-16 meeting. Sticky inflation—May PCE at 4.1% year-over-year and core at 3.4%—alongside a labor market near full employment, supports the hawkish tilt despite some forecasts for no action through year-end. Traders will focus on upcoming CPI, employment data, and the September dot plot for clearer signals on the policy path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$2,573,546Data di fine
29 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the August 31 Jackson Hole symposium, stressing that inflation remains too high and financial conditions insufficiently restrictive, have become the dominant driver of rate expectations. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% after the July FOMC meeting, markets via CME FedWatch now imply roughly a 60% chance of a 25 basis point hike at the September 15-16 meeting. Sticky inflation—May PCE at 4.1% year-over-year and core at 3.4%—alongside a labor market near full employment, supports the hawkish tilt despite some forecasts for no action through year-end. Traders will focus on upcoming CPI, employment data, and the September dot plot for clearer signals on the policy path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,573,546Data di fine
29 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Recent hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the August 31 Jackson Hole symposium, stressing that inflation remains too high and financial conditions insufficiently restrictive, have become the dominant driver of rate expectations. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% after the July FOMC meeting, markets via CME FedWatch now imply roughly a 60% chance of a 25 basis point hike at the September 15-16 meeting. Sticky inflation—May PCE at 4.1% year-over-year and core at 3.4%—alongside a labor market near full employment, supports the hawkish tilt despite some forecasts for no action through year-end. Traders will focus on upcoming CPI, employment data, and the September dot plot for clearer signals on the policy path.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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