The Justice Department closed its criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in April 2026 after reviewing allegations tied to congressional testimony on headquarters renovations, transferring the matter to the Fed’s inspector general without filing charges. No new probes or indictments have emerged in the intervening months, leaving insufficient time or basis for federal prosecutors to bring a case before the June 30 deadline. Traders assign a 99.2% probability to “No” because the prior inquiry produced no actionable evidence and institutional barriers, including prosecutorial discretion and evidentiary thresholds, make rapid action improbable. A last-minute development, such as unexpected new testimony or whistleblower material surfacing in the final days, remains a theoretical but remote possibility that could alter the outcome.