The Justice Department's criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, centered on alleged misstatements to Congress about $2.5 billion headquarters renovation cost overruns, was formally closed in April 2026 and referred to the Fed's inspector general after a federal judge quashed related subpoenas for lack of evidence. This followed the inquiry's January launch amid political pressure over monetary policy, with Powell publicly framing it as an attempt to influence rate decisions ahead of his May 2026 term end. Trader sentiment on federal charges reflects the absence of indictment, the probe's termination without findings of wrongdoing, and ongoing focus on successor Kevin Warsh's confirmation alongside broader questions of central bank independence. Any IG report or new facts could still shift implied probabilities, though markets currently price minimal risk given the closed case and judicial precedent.