Trader consensus prices "No" at 81.5% on the Iranian regime falling before 2027, reflecting its demonstrated institutional resilience amid severe shocks. The April 7 two-week ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan and leading to US-Iran talks in Islamabad, has eased external military pressure following the 2026 Iran war's US and Israeli airstrikes, which killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February and prompted a transition to his son Mojtaba Khamenei, backed by the IRGC. Earlier 2025-2026 protests over economic crisis were brutally suppressed, with US intelligence assessing in March no imminent collapse risk. Absent renewed unrest or proxy escalations, traders see IRGC cohesion and security apparatus as key barriers to overthrow.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$15,027,952 Vol.
$15,027,952 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$15,027,952 Vol.
$15,027,952 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 81.5% on the Iranian regime falling before 2027, reflecting its demonstrated institutional resilience amid severe shocks. The April 7 two-week ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan and leading to US-Iran talks in Islamabad, has eased external military pressure following the 2026 Iran war's US and Israeli airstrikes, which killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February and prompted a transition to his son Mojtaba Khamenei, backed by the IRGC. Earlier 2025-2026 protests over economic crisis were brutally suppressed, with US intelligence assessing in March no imminent collapse risk. Absent renewed unrest or proxy escalations, traders see IRGC cohesion and security apparatus as key barriers to overthrow.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volume
$15,027,952Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 81.5% on the Iranian regime falling before 2027, reflecting its demonstrated institutional resilience amid severe shocks. The April 7 two-week ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan and leading to US-Iran talks in Islamabad, has eased external military pressure following the 2026 Iran war's US and Israeli airstrikes, which killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February and prompted a transition to his son Mojtaba Khamenei, backed by the IRGC. Earlier 2025-2026 protests over economic crisis were brutally suppressed, with US intelligence assessing in March no imminent collapse risk. Absent renewed unrest or proxy escalations, traders see IRGC cohesion and security apparatus as key barriers to overthrow.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$15,027,952Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 81.5% on the Iranian regime falling before 2027, reflecting its demonstrated institutional resilience amid severe shocks. The April 7 two-week ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan and leading to US-Iran talks in Islamabad, has eased external military pressure following the 2026 Iran war's US and Israeli airstrikes, which killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February and prompted a transition to his son Mojtaba Khamenei, backed by the IRGC. Earlier 2025-2026 protests over economic crisis were brutally suppressed, with US intelligence assessing in March no imminent collapse risk. Absent renewed unrest or proxy escalations, traders see IRGC cohesion and security apparatus as key barriers to overthrow.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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