Despite the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei early in the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, nationwide protests in January 2026, and a US naval blockade halting most sea trade via the Strait of Hormuz, the regime has consolidated control by elevating his son Mojtaba Khamenei and agreeing to a ceasefire on April 7 amid ongoing negotiations. Revolutionary Guards and Basij forces quelled unrest through mass arrests, internet blackouts, and executions—including the first woman protester sentenced on April 15—preventing widespread defections or uprisings. This institutional resilience amid economic paralysis explains the 98.5% trader consensus against regime fall by April 30, though renewed strikes from ceasefire failure, military mutiny, or uncontrollable protests could still alter outcomes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIl regime iraniano cadrà entro il 30 aprile?
Il regime iraniano cadrà entro il 30 aprile?
Sì
$31,849,445 Vol.
$31,849,445 Vol.
30 apr 2026
Sì
$31,849,445 Vol.
$31,849,445 Vol.
30 apr 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Despite the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei early in the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, nationwide protests in January 2026, and a US naval blockade halting most sea trade via the Strait of Hormuz, the regime has consolidated control by elevating his son Mojtaba Khamenei and agreeing to a ceasefire on April 7 amid ongoing negotiations. Revolutionary Guards and Basij forces quelled unrest through mass arrests, internet blackouts, and executions—including the first woman protester sentenced on April 15—preventing widespread defections or uprisings. This institutional resilience amid economic paralysis explains the 98.5% trader consensus against regime fall by April 30, though renewed strikes from ceasefire failure, military mutiny, or uncontrollable protests could still alter outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ET
Volume
$31,849,445Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Despite the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei early in the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, nationwide protests in January 2026, and a US naval blockade halting most sea trade via the Strait of Hormuz, the regime has consolidated control by elevating his son Mojtaba Khamenei and agreeing to a ceasefire on April 7 amid ongoing negotiations. Revolutionary Guards and Basij forces quelled unrest through mass arrests, internet blackouts, and executions—including the first woman protester sentenced on April 15—preventing widespread defections or uprisings. This institutional resilience amid economic paralysis explains the 98.5% trader consensus against regime fall by April 30, though renewed strikes from ceasefire failure, military mutiny, or uncontrollable protests could still alter outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$31,849,809Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei early in the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, nationwide protests in January 2026, and a US naval blockade halting most sea trade via the Strait of Hormuz, the regime has consolidated control by elevating his son Mojtaba Khamenei and agreeing to a ceasefire on April 7 amid ongoing negotiations. Revolutionary Guards and Basij forces quelled unrest through mass arrests, internet blackouts, and executions—including the first woman protester sentenced on April 15—preventing widespread defections or uprisings. This institutional resilience amid economic paralysis explains the 98.5% trader consensus against regime fall by April 30, though renewed strikes from ceasefire failure, military mutiny, or uncontrollable protests could still alter outcomes.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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