Despite severe damage from U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in early 2026, ongoing economic collapse, and sporadic protests, the Iranian regime has consolidated power under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which retains strong repressive capacity and has prevented mass defections or a coordinated nationwide uprising. A fragile ceasefire agreed on April 8, mediated by Pakistan, holds amid recent diplomatic pushes—including Pakistan's high-level talks on April 16 and warnings from global finance ministers against escalation—stabilizing the situation without signs of imminent command-and-control breakdown. Succession disputes persist under a provisional leadership council, but trader consensus reflects historical resilience against dissent waves, pricing regime survival through June 30 at 92.5% amid no major catalysts for rapid change in the next 10 weeks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIl regime iraniano cadrà entro il 30 giugno?
Il regime iraniano cadrà entro il 30 giugno?
Sì
$31,188,246 Vol.
$31,188,246 Vol.
30 giu 2026
Sì
$31,188,246 Vol.
$31,188,246 Vol.
30 giu 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Despite severe damage from U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in early 2026, ongoing economic collapse, and sporadic protests, the Iranian regime has consolidated power under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which retains strong repressive capacity and has prevented mass defections or a coordinated nationwide uprising. A fragile ceasefire agreed on April 8, mediated by Pakistan, holds amid recent diplomatic pushes—including Pakistan's high-level talks on April 16 and warnings from global finance ministers against escalation—stabilizing the situation without signs of imminent command-and-control breakdown. Succession disputes persist under a provisional leadership council, but trader consensus reflects historical resilience against dissent waves, pricing regime survival through June 30 at 92.5% amid no major catalysts for rapid change in the next 10 weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$31,188,246Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Despite severe damage from U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in early 2026, ongoing economic collapse, and sporadic protests, the Iranian regime has consolidated power under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which retains strong repressive capacity and has prevented mass defections or a coordinated nationwide uprising. A fragile ceasefire agreed on April 8, mediated by Pakistan, holds amid recent diplomatic pushes—including Pakistan's high-level talks on April 16 and warnings from global finance ministers against escalation—stabilizing the situation without signs of imminent command-and-control breakdown. Succession disputes persist under a provisional leadership council, but trader consensus reflects historical resilience against dissent waves, pricing regime survival through June 30 at 92.5% amid no major catalysts for rapid change in the next 10 weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$31,191,152Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite severe damage from U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in early 2026, ongoing economic collapse, and sporadic protests, the Iranian regime has consolidated power under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which retains strong repressive capacity and has prevented mass defections or a coordinated nationwide uprising. A fragile ceasefire agreed on April 8, mediated by Pakistan, holds amid recent diplomatic pushes—including Pakistan's high-level talks on April 16 and warnings from global finance ministers against escalation—stabilizing the situation without signs of imminent command-and-control breakdown. Succession disputes persist under a provisional leadership council, but trader consensus reflects historical resilience against dissent waves, pricing regime survival through June 30 at 92.5% amid no major catalysts for rapid change in the next 10 weeks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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