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Mondo·Medio Oriente

Leader iraniano alla fine del 2026?

icon for Leader iraniano alla fine del 2026?
Mondo·Medio Oriente

Leader iraniano alla fine del 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 84.3%

Alireza Arafi 3.4%

Nessun Capo di Stato 3.3%

Reza Pahlavi 3.3%

Polymarket

$37,538,110 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 84.3%

Alireza Arafi 3.4%

Nessun Capo di Stato 3.3%

Reza Pahlavi 3.3%

Polymarket

$37,538,110 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$5,416,808 Vol.

84%

Alireza Arafi

$2,301,738 Vol.

3%

Nessun Capo di Stato

$1,132,226 Vol.

3%

Reza Pahlavi

$649,507 Vol.

3%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$900,913 Vol.

1%

Hassan Khomeini

$1,409,448 Vol.

1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$752,662 Vol.

1%

Hassan Rouhani

$927,201 Vol.

1%

Abbas Araghchi

$827,474 Vol.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$1,000,761 Vol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$432,050 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$525,259 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$3,134,943 Vol.

<1%

Maryam Rajavi

$798,667 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$391,847 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$3,674,912 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$136,941 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$205,712 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$191,560 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$829,871 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$425,058 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$3,339,839 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$232,790 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$379,888 Vol.

<1%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$1,034,875 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$5,090,055 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$275,534 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$248,562 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$299,541 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$334,608 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an 84% implied probability as Iran's leader at the end of 2026, reflecting the Assembly of Experts' March 2026 selection following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February amid U.S.-Israeli strikes. His elevation, backed by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps networks and his father's institutional apparatus, provides continuity during wartime conditions and internal pressures. Limited public appearances and confirmed injuries from the strikes have raised questions about capacity without eroding trader consensus, as alternative figures like Alireza Arafi or others encounter barriers from insufficient clerical rank, security ties, or prior positioning outside the succession framework. Scheduled events within the resolution window remain limited, leaving room for health or authority developments to influence outcomes.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$37,538,110
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an 84% implied probability as Iran's leader at the end of 2026, reflecting the Assembly of Experts' March 2026 selection following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February amid U.S.-Israeli strikes. His elevation, backed by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps networks and his father's institutional apparatus, provides continuity during wartime conditions and internal pressures. Limited public appearances and confirmed injuries from the strikes have raised questions about capacity without eroding trader consensus, as alternative figures like Alireza Arafi or others encounter barriers from insufficient clerical rank, security ties, or prior positioning outside the succession framework. Scheduled events within the resolution window remain limited, leaving room for health or authority developments to influence outcomes.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$37,538,110
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Domande frequenti

"Leader iraniano alla fine del 2026?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 32 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Mojtaba Khamenei" a 84%, seguito da "Alireza Arafi" a 3%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 84¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 84% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Leader iraniano alla fine del 2026?" ha generato $37.5 million in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Feb 28, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Leader iraniano alla fine del 2026?", esplora i 32 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Leader iraniano alla fine del 2026?" è "Mojtaba Khamenei" a 84%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 84% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Alireza Arafi" a 3%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Leader iraniano alla fine del 2026?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.