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Mondo·Medio Oriente

Leader iraniano alla fine del 2026?

icon for Leader iraniano alla fine del 2026?
Mondo·Medio Oriente

Leader iraniano alla fine del 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 80.6%

Nessun Capo di Stato 5.8%

Alireza Arafi 4.1%

Reza Pahlavi 3.4%

Polymarket

$37,459,367 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 80.6%

Nessun Capo di Stato 5.8%

Alireza Arafi 4.1%

Reza Pahlavi 3.4%

Polymarket

$37,459,367 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$5,400,665 Vol.

81%

Nessun Capo di Stato

$1,130,271 Vol.

6%

Alireza Arafi

$2,299,693 Vol.

4%

Reza Pahlavi

$647,431 Vol.

3%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$898,843 Vol.

1%

Hassan Khomeini

$1,407,378 Vol.

1%

Hassan Rouhani

$925,131 Vol.

1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$750,592 Vol.

1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$430,195 Vol.

1%

Abbas Araghchi

$825,404 Vol.

1%

Sadegh Larijani

$523,455 Vol.

<1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$998,689 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$5,087,806 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$3,132,964 Vol.

<1%

Maryam Rajavi

$796,733 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$389,708 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$3,674,677 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$134,802 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$201,597 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$189,421 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$827,731 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$421,129 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$3,337,699 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$230,650 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$377,948 Vol.

<1%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$1,032,941 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$273,395 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$246,422 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$296,468 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$332,669 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei's position as the leading outcome at 80.5% reflects his rapid selection by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026 following the assassination of his father, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, during U.S.-Israeli strikes. His established connections to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Basij paramilitary forces, along with principlist backing, have positioned him to consolidate authority in a centralized clerical system. Persistent low probabilities for alternatives such as Alireza Arafi or a leadership vacuum stem from the assembly's unanimous early vote and Mojtaba's subsequent issuance of official statements, even amid limited public appearances and unconfirmed reports of injury. Trader consensus incorporates historical precedent for quick internal transitions while accounting for ongoing regional tensions that could affect stability through year-end.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$37,459,367
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei's position as the leading outcome at 80.5% reflects his rapid selection by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026 following the assassination of his father, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, during U.S.-Israeli strikes. His established connections to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Basij paramilitary forces, along with principlist backing, have positioned him to consolidate authority in a centralized clerical system. Persistent low probabilities for alternatives such as Alireza Arafi or a leadership vacuum stem from the assembly's unanimous early vote and Mojtaba's subsequent issuance of official statements, even amid limited public appearances and unconfirmed reports of injury. Trader consensus incorporates historical precedent for quick internal transitions while accounting for ongoing regional tensions that could affect stability through year-end.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$37,459,367
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Domande frequenti

"Leader iraniano alla fine del 2026?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 32 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Mojtaba Khamenei" a 81%, seguito da "Nessun Capo di Stato" a 6%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 81¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 81% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Leader iraniano alla fine del 2026?" ha generato $37.5 million in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Feb 28, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Leader iraniano alla fine del 2026?", esplora i 32 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Leader iraniano alla fine del 2026?" è "Mojtaba Khamenei" a 81%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 81% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Nessun Capo di Stato" a 6%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Leader iraniano alla fine del 2026?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.