Following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei amid U.S.-Israeli strikes, the Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March via unanimous vote, establishing him as the sitting leader. Trader consensus at 77.6% for Mojtaba reflects this rapid institutional transition, his established ties to the IRGC and Basij, and limited time until year-end for major disruption. Lower probabilities for alternatives such as No Head of State or Alireza Arafi incorporate ongoing regional tensions and regime stability risks, though no major leadership challenges or health-related shifts have materialized since the March selection.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLeader iraniano alla fine del 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei 77.4%
Nessun Capo di Stato 7.8%
Alireza Arafi 4.3%
Reza Pahlavi 3.4%
$37,393,955 Vol.
$37,393,955 Vol.
Mojtaba Khamenei
77%
Nessun Capo di Stato
8%
Alireza Arafi
4%
Reza Pahlavi
3%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
1%
Ahmad Vahidi
1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
1%
Abbas Araghchi
1%
Hassan Khomeini
<1%
Hassan Rouhani
<1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
<1%
Sadegh Larijani
<1%
Mohammad Khatami
<1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
<1%
Maryam Rajavi
<1%
Massoud Rajavi
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
<1%
Ali Motahari
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
<1%
Saeed Jalili
<1%
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
<1%
Mohsen Araki
<1%
Nasir Hosseini
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
<1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
<1%
Mojtaba Khamenei 77.4%
Nessun Capo di Stato 7.8%
Alireza Arafi 4.3%
Reza Pahlavi 3.4%
$37,393,955 Vol.
$37,393,955 Vol.
Mojtaba Khamenei
77%
Nessun Capo di Stato
8%
Alireza Arafi
4%
Reza Pahlavi
3%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
1%
Ahmad Vahidi
1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
1%
Abbas Araghchi
1%
Hassan Khomeini
<1%
Hassan Rouhani
<1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
<1%
Sadegh Larijani
<1%
Mohammad Khatami
<1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
<1%
Maryam Rajavi
<1%
Massoud Rajavi
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
<1%
Ali Motahari
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
<1%
Saeed Jalili
<1%
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
<1%
Mohsen Araki
<1%
Nasir Hosseini
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
<1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
<1%
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Mercato aperto: Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei amid U.S.-Israeli strikes, the Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March via unanimous vote, establishing him as the sitting leader. Trader consensus at 77.6% for Mojtaba reflects this rapid institutional transition, his established ties to the IRGC and Basij, and limited time until year-end for major disruption. Lower probabilities for alternatives such as No Head of State or Alireza Arafi incorporate ongoing regional tensions and regime stability risks, though no major leadership challenges or health-related shifts have materialized since the March selection.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato



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