Mojtaba Khamenei's appointment as Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in early March 2026, following Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February, anchors trader consensus at 84.3% for him remaining in the role through year-end. Official statements from Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, affirm his control and health, yet persistent reports of injuries from the strikes—ranging from minor to more serious—introduce uncertainty about his capacity to consolidate power amid ongoing regional tensions. Low probabilities for alternatives like Alireza Arafi or Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf reflect limited immediate challenges to the current succession structure, though any escalation in health disclosures or institutional shifts could alter positioning before December 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLeader iraniano alla fine del 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei 83.7%
Nessun Capo di Stato 4.0%
Alireza Arafi 3.5%
Reza Pahlavi 3.3%
$37,486,284 Vol.
$37,486,284 Vol.
Mojtaba Khamenei
84%
Nessun Capo di Stato
4%
Alireza Arafi
3%
Reza Pahlavi
3%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
1%
Hassan Khomeini
1%
Hassan Rouhani
1%
Ahmad Vahidi
1%
Abbas Araghchi
1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
<1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
<1%
Sadegh Larijani
<1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
<1%
Maryam Rajavi
<1%
Massoud Rajavi
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
<1%
Ali Motahari
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
<1%
Saeed Jalili
<1%
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
<1%
Mohammad Khatami
<1%
Mohsen Araki
<1%
Nasir Hosseini
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
<1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
<1%
Mojtaba Khamenei 83.7%
Nessun Capo di Stato 4.0%
Alireza Arafi 3.5%
Reza Pahlavi 3.3%
$37,486,284 Vol.
$37,486,284 Vol.
Mojtaba Khamenei
84%
Nessun Capo di Stato
4%
Alireza Arafi
3%
Reza Pahlavi
3%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
1%
Hassan Khomeini
1%
Hassan Rouhani
1%
Ahmad Vahidi
1%
Abbas Araghchi
1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
<1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
<1%
Sadegh Larijani
<1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
<1%
Maryam Rajavi
<1%
Massoud Rajavi
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
<1%
Ali Motahari
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
<1%
Saeed Jalili
<1%
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
<1%
Mohammad Khatami
<1%
Mohsen Araki
<1%
Nasir Hosseini
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
<1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
<1%
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Mercato aperto: Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Mojtaba Khamenei's appointment as Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in early March 2026, following Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February, anchors trader consensus at 84.3% for him remaining in the role through year-end. Official statements from Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, affirm his control and health, yet persistent reports of injuries from the strikes—ranging from minor to more serious—introduce uncertainty about his capacity to consolidate power amid ongoing regional tensions. Low probabilities for alternatives like Alireza Arafi or Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf reflect limited immediate challenges to the current succession structure, though any escalation in health disclosures or institutional shifts could alter positioning before December 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato



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