Following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei amid U.S.-Israeli strikes, the Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March via unanimous vote, establishing him as the sitting leader. Trader consensus at 77.6% for Mojtaba reflects this rapid institutional transition, his established ties to the IRGC and Basij, and limited time until year-end for major disruption. Lower probabilities for alternatives such as No Head of State or Alireza Arafi incorporate ongoing regional tensions and regime stability risks, though no major leadership challenges or health-related shifts have materialized since the March selection.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLeader iraniano alla fine del 2026?
Leader iraniano alla fine del 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei 77.4%
Nessun Capo di Stato 7.8%
Alireza Arafi 4.3%
Reza Pahlavi 3.4%
$37,393,955 Vol.
$37,393,955 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Mojtaba Khamenei
77%
Nessun Capo di Stato
8%
Alireza Arafi
4%
Reza Pahlavi
3%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
1%
Ahmad Vahidi
1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
1%
Abbas Araghchi
1%
Hassan Khomeini
<1%
Hassan Rouhani
<1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
<1%
Sadegh Larijani
<1%
Mohammad Khatami
<1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
<1%
Maryam Rajavi
<1%
Massoud Rajavi
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
<1%
Ali Motahari
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
<1%
Saeed Jalili
<1%
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
<1%
Mohsen Araki
<1%
Nasir Hosseini
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
<1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
<1%
Mojtaba Khamenei 77.4%
Nessun Capo di Stato 7.8%
Alireza Arafi 4.3%
Reza Pahlavi 3.4%
$37,393,955 Vol.
$37,393,955 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Mojtaba Khamenei
$5,383,512 Vol.
77%
Nessun Capo di Stato
$1,127,287 Vol.
8%
Alireza Arafi
$2,297,990 Vol.
4%
Reza Pahlavi
$646,405 Vol.
3%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
$897,892 Vol.
1%
Ahmad Vahidi
$749,631 Vol.
1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
$993,424 Vol.
1%
Abbas Araghchi
$824,453 Vol.
1%
Hassan Khomeini
$1,404,608 Vol.
<1%
Hassan Rouhani
$923,568 Vol.
<1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
$428,962 Vol.
<1%
Sadegh Larijani
$522,276 Vol.
<1%
Mohammad Khatami
$5,082,962 Vol.
<1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
$3,132,013 Vol.
<1%
Maryam Rajavi
$795,782 Vol.
<1%
Massoud Rajavi
$388,757 Vol.
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
$3,674,200 Vol.
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
$133,851 Vol.
<1%
Navid Shomali
$200,597 Vol.
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
$188,412 Vol.
<1%
Ali Motahari
$826,715 Vol.
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
$420,178 Vol.
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
$3,335,357 Vol.
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
$229,699 Vol.
<1%
Saeed Jalili
$375,391 Vol.
<1%
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
$1,028,256 Vol.
<1%
Mohsen Araki
$272,318 Vol.
<1%
Nasir Hosseini
$245,362 Vol.
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
$295,517 Vol.
<1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
$331,718 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei amid U.S.-Israeli strikes, the Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March via unanimous vote, establishing him as the sitting leader. Trader consensus at 77.6% for Mojtaba reflects this rapid institutional transition, his established ties to the IRGC and Basij, and limited time until year-end for major disruption. Lower probabilities for alternatives such as No Head of State or Alireza Arafi incorporate ongoing regional tensions and regime stability risks, though no major leadership challenges or health-related shifts have materialized since the March selection.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Mercato aperto: Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Volume
$37,393,955Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei amid U.S.-Israeli strikes, the Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March via unanimous vote, establishing him as the sitting leader. Trader consensus at 77.6% for Mojtaba reflects this rapid institutional transition, his established ties to the IRGC and Basij, and limited time until year-end for major disruption. Lower probabilities for alternatives such as No Head of State or Alireza Arafi incorporate ongoing regional tensions and regime stability risks, though no major leadership challenges or health-related shifts have materialized since the March selection.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$37,393,955Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Following the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei amid U.S.-Israeli strikes, the Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March via unanimous vote, establishing him as the sitting leader. Trader consensus at 77.6% for Mojtaba reflects this rapid institutional transition, his established ties to the IRGC and Basij, and limited time until year-end for major disruption. Lower probabilities for alternatives such as No Head of State or Alireza Arafi incorporate ongoing regional tensions and regime stability risks, though no major leadership challenges or health-related shifts have materialized since the March selection.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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