**Ongoing negotiations and extensive damage to Iran's nuclear infrastructure from prior U.S. and Israeli strikes explain the strong trader consensus against an Iranian nuclear test before 2027.** Strikes in June 2025 and February–March 2026 targeted key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, rendering main facilities inoperable or inaccessible, with tunnel entrances backfilled and no reported uranium enrichment activity since. Iran's roughly 400+ kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium remains largely trapped or unverified at damaged locations, limiting any near-term weaponization pathway. IAEA verification has been suspended at affected sites following the attacks, though limited inspections continue elsewhere and talks with the U.S. focus on down-blending under supervision as part of interim agreements. Peripheral domestic commentary on nuclear options has increased but does not reflect official policy or active breakout efforts. With the program in a damaged, dormant state and diplomatic processes underway into late 2026, the implied probability aligns with the absence of credible indicators for testing in the resolution window.