US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, along with weaponization-related sites, while eliminating multiple nuclear scientists. IAEA assessments confirm no verified resumption of uranium enrichment since the strikes, with Iran's existing 60% enriched stockpile largely inaccessible under rubble and no structured weaponization program observed. These military actions have extended the timeline for any potential nuclear test by degrading infrastructure, expertise, and breakout capacity. Diplomatic statements from Iranian officials emphasize no intent to recover materials or pursue weapons, reinforcing trader expectations that a test remains unlikely before 2027 absent major reconstruction breakthroughs.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTest nucleare iraniano prima del 2027?
Test nucleare iraniano prima del 2027?
Sì
$200,275 Vol.
$200,275 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$200,275 Vol.
$200,275 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, along with weaponization-related sites, while eliminating multiple nuclear scientists. IAEA assessments confirm no verified resumption of uranium enrichment since the strikes, with Iran's existing 60% enriched stockpile largely inaccessible under rubble and no structured weaponization program observed. These military actions have extended the timeline for any potential nuclear test by degrading infrastructure, expertise, and breakout capacity. Diplomatic statements from Iranian officials emphasize no intent to recover materials or pursue weapons, reinforcing trader expectations that a test remains unlikely before 2027 absent major reconstruction breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$200,275Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, along with weaponization-related sites, while eliminating multiple nuclear scientists. IAEA assessments confirm no verified resumption of uranium enrichment since the strikes, with Iran's existing 60% enriched stockpile largely inaccessible under rubble and no structured weaponization program observed. These military actions have extended the timeline for any potential nuclear test by degrading infrastructure, expertise, and breakout capacity. Diplomatic statements from Iranian officials emphasize no intent to recover materials or pursue weapons, reinforcing trader expectations that a test remains unlikely before 2027 absent major reconstruction breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$200,361Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, along with weaponization-related sites, while eliminating multiple nuclear scientists. IAEA assessments confirm no verified resumption of uranium enrichment since the strikes, with Iran's existing 60% enriched stockpile largely inaccessible under rubble and no structured weaponization program observed. These military actions have extended the timeline for any potential nuclear test by degrading infrastructure, expertise, and breakout capacity. Diplomatic statements from Iranian officials emphasize no intent to recover materials or pursue weapons, reinforcing trader expectations that a test remains unlikely before 2027 absent major reconstruction breakthroughs.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti