Israel's ongoing military campaign against Iran, launched February 28 with US support targeting nuclear facilities, leadership, and infrastructure—including April 7 strikes on Iranian bridges and railways—has spilled into proxy fronts, driving trader consensus toward four countries at 29% and five at 27%. Recent intensification features April 15 airstrikes hitting 76 sites in Lebanon, killing over 20 amid Hezbollah clashes, alongside continued operations in Syria against IRGC targets and Yemen against Houthi missile launches resumed March 28. The tight race reflects uncertainty over whether Gaza strikes count separately from Palestinian territories or if Iraq joins as a sixth amid escalation risks, balanced by nascent Israel-Lebanon direct ceasefire talks April 15 under US pressure; breakthroughs in negotiations could cap at four, while Iranian retaliation or proxy surges might push toward five or more by year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato4 28.6%
5 27.2%
6 14.0%
3 11.6%
$6,434,184 Vol.
$6,434,184 Vol.
31 dic 2026
3
12%
4
29%
5
27%
6
14%
7
3%
8
1%
9
1%
10
2%
11
3%
12
<1%
13
<1%
14
<1%
15+
<1%
4 28.6%
5 27.2%
6 14.0%
3 11.6%
$6,434,184 Vol.
$6,434,184 Vol.
31 dic 2026
3
$1,900,083 Vol.
12%
4
$1,144,743 Vol.
29%
5
$496,703 Vol.
27%
6
$626,859 Vol.
14%
7
$602,404 Vol.
3%
8
$500,366 Vol.
1%
9
$221,736 Vol.
1%
10
$375,926 Vol.
2%
11
$101,456 Vol.
3%
12
$62,139 Vol.
<1%
13
$139,205 Vol.
<1%
14
$100,735 Vol.
<1%
15+
$36,247 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's ongoing military campaign against Iran, launched February 28 with US support targeting nuclear facilities, leadership, and infrastructure—including April 7 strikes on Iranian bridges and railways—has spilled into proxy fronts, driving trader consensus toward four countries at 29% and five at 27%. Recent intensification features April 15 airstrikes hitting 76 sites in Lebanon, killing over 20 amid Hezbollah clashes, alongside continued operations in Syria against IRGC targets and Yemen against Houthi missile launches resumed March 28. The tight race reflects uncertainty over whether Gaza strikes count separately from Palestinian territories or if Iraq joins as a sixth amid escalation risks, balanced by nascent Israel-Lebanon direct ceasefire talks April 15 under US pressure; breakthroughs in negotiations could cap at four, while Iranian retaliation or proxy surges might push toward five or more by year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ET
Volume
$6,434,184Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's ongoing military campaign against Iran, launched February 28 with US support targeting nuclear facilities, leadership, and infrastructure—including April 7 strikes on Iranian bridges and railways—has spilled into proxy fronts, driving trader consensus toward four countries at 29% and five at 27%. Recent intensification features April 15 airstrikes hitting 76 sites in Lebanon, killing over 20 amid Hezbollah clashes, alongside continued operations in Syria against IRGC targets and Yemen against Houthi missile launches resumed March 28. The tight race reflects uncertainty over whether Gaza strikes count separately from Palestinian territories or if Iraq joins as a sixth amid escalation risks, balanced by nascent Israel-Lebanon direct ceasefire talks April 15 under US pressure; breakthroughs in negotiations could cap at four, while Iranian retaliation or proxy surges might push toward five or more by year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,434,184Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Israel's ongoing military campaign against Iran, launched February 28 with US support targeting nuclear facilities, leadership, and infrastructure—including April 7 strikes on Iranian bridges and railways—has spilled into proxy fronts, driving trader consensus toward four countries at 29% and five at 27%. Recent intensification features April 15 airstrikes hitting 76 sites in Lebanon, killing over 20 amid Hezbollah clashes, alongside continued operations in Syria against IRGC targets and Yemen against Houthi missile launches resumed March 28. The tight race reflects uncertainty over whether Gaza strikes count separately from Palestinian territories or if Iraq joins as a sixth amid escalation risks, balanced by nascent Israel-Lebanon direct ceasefire talks April 15 under US pressure; breakthroughs in negotiations could cap at four, while Iranian retaliation or proxy surges might push toward five or more by year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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