Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects approximately seven countries—Iran, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Somalia, Venezuela, and Nigeria—targeted by US airstrikes, drone operations, and special forces raids so far in 2026, per CENTCOM and AFRICOM reports, fueling the tight race among 7 (31.5%), 8 (23.4%), and 9 (14.4%) outcomes. The dominant driver remains the February-launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran, escalated April 13 with a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing precision strikes amid fragile ceasefire talks, as Russia warns of potential ground invasion preparations. Routine counterterrorism in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Somalia sustains baseline activity, while Venezuela's January Maduro raid and Nigeria operations add to the tally. Separation could arise from proxy escalations involving Hezbollah in Lebanon, new counter-narcotics strikes in the Eastern Pacific or Latin America (e.g., Cuba contingencies), or Iran war spillover before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoContro quanti paesi diversi gli Stati Uniti condurranno un'azione militare nel 2026?
Contro quanti paesi diversi gli Stati Uniti condurranno un'azione militare nel 2026?
7 31.5%
8 23.4%
9 14.4%
6 9.9%
$888,364 Vol.
$888,364 Vol.
31 dic 2026
6
10%
7
32%
8
23%
9
14%
10
9%
11
3%
12
3%
13
3%
14
1%
15+
2%
7 31.5%
8 23.4%
9 14.4%
6 9.9%
$888,364 Vol.
$888,364 Vol.
31 dic 2026
6
$420,356 Vol.
10%
7
$6,328 Vol.
32%
8
$36,988 Vol.
23%
9
$11,318 Vol.
14%
10
$11,824 Vol.
9%
11
$8,707 Vol.
3%
12
$28,360 Vol.
3%
13
$42,895 Vol.
3%
14
$42,028 Vol.
1%
15+
$119,718 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects approximately seven countries—Iran, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Somalia, Venezuela, and Nigeria—targeted by US airstrikes, drone operations, and special forces raids so far in 2026, per CENTCOM and AFRICOM reports, fueling the tight race among 7 (31.5%), 8 (23.4%), and 9 (14.4%) outcomes. The dominant driver remains the February-launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran, escalated April 13 with a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing precision strikes amid fragile ceasefire talks, as Russia warns of potential ground invasion preparations. Routine counterterrorism in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Somalia sustains baseline activity, while Venezuela's January Maduro raid and Nigeria operations add to the tally. Separation could arise from proxy escalations involving Hezbollah in Lebanon, new counter-narcotics strikes in the Eastern Pacific or Latin America (e.g., Cuba contingencies), or Iran war spillover before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET
Volume
$888,364Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects approximately seven countries—Iran, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Somalia, Venezuela, and Nigeria—targeted by US airstrikes, drone operations, and special forces raids so far in 2026, per CENTCOM and AFRICOM reports, fueling the tight race among 7 (31.5%), 8 (23.4%), and 9 (14.4%) outcomes. The dominant driver remains the February-launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran, escalated April 13 with a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing precision strikes amid fragile ceasefire talks, as Russia warns of potential ground invasion preparations. Routine counterterrorism in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Somalia sustains baseline activity, while Venezuela's January Maduro raid and Nigeria operations add to the tally. Separation could arise from proxy escalations involving Hezbollah in Lebanon, new counter-narcotics strikes in the Eastern Pacific or Latin America (e.g., Cuba contingencies), or Iran war spillover before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$888,364Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects approximately seven countries—Iran, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Somalia, Venezuela, and Nigeria—targeted by US airstrikes, drone operations, and special forces raids so far in 2026, per CENTCOM and AFRICOM reports, fueling the tight race among 7 (31.5%), 8 (23.4%), and 9 (14.4%) outcomes. The dominant driver remains the February-launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran, escalated April 13 with a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing precision strikes amid fragile ceasefire talks, as Russia warns of potential ground invasion preparations. Routine counterterrorism in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Somalia sustains baseline activity, while Venezuela's January Maduro raid and Nigeria operations add to the tally. Separation could arise from proxy escalations involving Hezbollah in Lebanon, new counter-narcotics strikes in the Eastern Pacific or Latin America (e.g., Cuba contingencies), or Iran war spillover before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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