U.S. intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluded China lacks plans for a Taiwan invasion by 2027 and prefers cross-strait unification without force, easing fears of the prior "Davidson window" timeline and driving trader consensus toward an 89.5% implied probability of no military clash before year-end. Recent diplomacy reinforced this, as Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang chair met President Xi Jinping on April 10 to affirm the 1992 Consensus, oppose Taiwan independence, and launch 10 new economic-cultural exchange measures amid routine PLA warplane incursions. Ongoing U.S. deterrence, China's economic priorities, and no escalation signals sustain low risk, though global conflicts or sudden coercion could shift odds before resolution on December 31, 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$1,631,589 Vol.
$1,631,589 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$1,631,589 Vol.
$1,631,589 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.U.S. intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluded China lacks plans for a Taiwan invasion by 2027 and prefers cross-strait unification without force, easing fears of the prior "Davidson window" timeline and driving trader consensus toward an 89.5% implied probability of no military clash before year-end. Recent diplomacy reinforced this, as Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang chair met President Xi Jinping on April 10 to affirm the 1992 Consensus, oppose Taiwan independence, and launch 10 new economic-cultural exchange measures amid routine PLA warplane incursions. Ongoing U.S. deterrence, China's economic priorities, and no escalation signals sustain low risk, though global conflicts or sudden coercion could shift odds before resolution on December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
Volume
$1,631,589Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.U.S. intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluded China lacks plans for a Taiwan invasion by 2027 and prefers cross-strait unification without force, easing fears of the prior "Davidson window" timeline and driving trader consensus toward an 89.5% implied probability of no military clash before year-end. Recent diplomacy reinforced this, as Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang chair met President Xi Jinping on April 10 to affirm the 1992 Consensus, oppose Taiwan independence, and launch 10 new economic-cultural exchange measures amid routine PLA warplane incursions. Ongoing U.S. deterrence, China's economic priorities, and no escalation signals sustain low risk, though global conflicts or sudden coercion could shift odds before resolution on December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,631,646Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. intelligence's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluded China lacks plans for a Taiwan invasion by 2027 and prefers cross-strait unification without force, easing fears of the prior "Davidson window" timeline and driving trader consensus toward an 89.5% implied probability of no military clash before year-end. Recent diplomacy reinforced this, as Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang chair met President Xi Jinping on April 10 to affirm the 1992 Consensus, oppose Taiwan independence, and launch 10 new economic-cultural exchange measures amid routine PLA warplane incursions. Ongoing U.S. deterrence, China's economic priorities, and no escalation signals sustain low risk, though global conflicts or sudden coercion could shift odds before resolution on December 31, 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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