**Trader consensus at 97.5% "No" reflects the structural barriers in Taiwan’s impeachment process and the opposition’s limited legislative strength.** The Legislative Yuan requires a two-thirds supermajority—76 of 113 seats—to initiate formal impeachment of the president, after which the case moves to the Constitutional Court. Opposition parties hold roughly 62 seats, well short of the threshold, as demonstrated by the failed May 19, 2026 vote that received only 56 supporting ballots. With the June 30 deadline just weeks away and no scheduled elections or seat changes, the arithmetic leaves no realistic path for passage. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party maintains unified opposition, and cross-party defections remain negligible. While a late-breaking constitutional crisis or unprecedented scandal could theoretically alter alignments, no such developments have materialized, and procedural timelines make court adjudication before the cutoff improbable. Market pricing therefore tracks the entrenched seat distribution and recent vote outcome.