Traders assign a 99.6% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale mobilization, amphibious preparations, or command signals that would precede such an operation within the narrow remaining window. Recent months show continued gray-zone activity, including routine air and naval incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone alongside coast guard patrols, but monthly aircraft numbers have declined and assessments indicate the People’s Liberation Army still lacks sufficient sealift, logistics, and integrated command capacity for a full cross-strait landing. Military purges have further complicated operational readiness. A sudden shift remains possible through miscalculation or abrupt policy change, yet the short timeline and visible force posture make any reversal before month-end highly improbable under current conditions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
<1% probabilità
$2,102,767 Vol.
$2,102,767 Vol.
30 set 2026
Sì
<1% probabilità
$2,102,767 Vol.
$2,102,767 Vol.
30 set 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.6% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale mobilization, amphibious preparations, or command signals that would precede such an operation within the narrow remaining window. Recent months show continued gray-zone activity, including routine air and naval incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone alongside coast guard patrols, but monthly aircraft numbers have declined and assessments indicate the People’s Liberation Army still lacks sufficient sealift, logistics, and integrated command capacity for a full cross-strait landing. Military purges have further complicated operational readiness. A sudden shift remains possible through miscalculation or abrupt policy change, yet the short timeline and visible force posture make any reversal before month-end highly improbable under current conditions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volume
$2,102,767Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.6% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale mobilization, amphibious preparations, or command signals that would precede such an operation within the narrow remaining window. Recent months show continued gray-zone activity, including routine air and naval incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone alongside coast guard patrols, but monthly aircraft numbers have declined and assessments indicate the People’s Liberation Army still lacks sufficient sealift, logistics, and integrated command capacity for a full cross-strait landing. Military purges have further complicated operational readiness. A sudden shift remains possible through miscalculation or abrupt policy change, yet the short timeline and visible force posture make any reversal before month-end highly improbable under current conditions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$2,102,767Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 99.6% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale mobilization, amphibious preparations, or command signals that would precede such an operation within the narrow remaining window. Recent months show continued gray-zone activity, including routine air and naval incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone alongside coast guard patrols, but monthly aircraft numbers have declined and assessments indicate the People’s Liberation Army still lacks sufficient sealift, logistics, and integrated command capacity for a full cross-strait landing. Military purges have further complicated operational readiness. A sudden shift remains possible through miscalculation or abrupt policy change, yet the short timeline and visible force posture make any reversal before month-end highly improbable under current conditions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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