Trader consensus prices a 93.5% probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting de-escalatory diplomatic signals and assessments of Beijing's limited military readiness. On April 10, Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang chairwoman Cheng Li-wun met Xi Jinping in Beijing on a self-described peace mission, prompting China to resume suspended ties like direct flights and Taiwanese imports by April 12. This follows a March U.S. intelligence assessment dialing back invasion risks through 2027, citing Xi's military purges that have hampered PLA coordination for complex amphibious operations. Ongoing gray-zone tactics like ADIZ incursions persist, but strong U.S. deterrence, Taiwan's defenses, and economic costs reinforce trader views of sustained coercion over outright war absent major catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$283,796 Vol.
$283,796 Vol.
30 set 2026
Sì
$283,796 Vol.
$283,796 Vol.
30 set 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices a 93.5% probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting de-escalatory diplomatic signals and assessments of Beijing's limited military readiness. On April 10, Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang chairwoman Cheng Li-wun met Xi Jinping in Beijing on a self-described peace mission, prompting China to resume suspended ties like direct flights and Taiwanese imports by April 12. This follows a March U.S. intelligence assessment dialing back invasion risks through 2027, citing Xi's military purges that have hampered PLA coordination for complex amphibious operations. Ongoing gray-zone tactics like ADIZ incursions persist, but strong U.S. deterrence, Taiwan's defenses, and economic costs reinforce trader views of sustained coercion over outright war absent major catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volume
$283,796Data di fine
30 set 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices a 93.5% probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting de-escalatory diplomatic signals and assessments of Beijing's limited military readiness. On April 10, Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang chairwoman Cheng Li-wun met Xi Jinping in Beijing on a self-described peace mission, prompting China to resume suspended ties like direct flights and Taiwanese imports by April 12. This follows a March U.S. intelligence assessment dialing back invasion risks through 2027, citing Xi's military purges that have hampered PLA coordination for complex amphibious operations. Ongoing gray-zone tactics like ADIZ incursions persist, but strong U.S. deterrence, Taiwan's defenses, and economic costs reinforce trader views of sustained coercion over outright war absent major catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$283,796Data di fine
30 set 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 93.5% probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting de-escalatory diplomatic signals and assessments of Beijing's limited military readiness. On April 10, Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang chairwoman Cheng Li-wun met Xi Jinping in Beijing on a self-described peace mission, prompting China to resume suspended ties like direct flights and Taiwanese imports by April 12. This follows a March U.S. intelligence assessment dialing back invasion risks through 2027, citing Xi's military purges that have hampered PLA coordination for complex amphibious operations. Ongoing gray-zone tactics like ADIZ incursions persist, but strong U.S. deterrence, Taiwan's defenses, and economic costs reinforce trader views of sustained coercion over outright war absent major catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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