Russia's military remains deeply entrenched in the protracted Ukraine conflict now entering its fifth year, with recent Institute for the Study of War assessments highlighting slow Donbas advances, high casualties, and recruitment plans for 409,000 additional troops focused on that front rather than new theaters. Expansions near NATO borders, such as Kaliningrad reported by Lithuania in early March, have prompted Baltic vigilance but show no concrete invasion preparations against countries like Moldova or the Baltics. Persistent NATO deterrence under Article 5, coupled with Russia's economic strains and lack of escalatory diplomatic signals in the past 30 days, drives trader consensus to an 88.5% implied probability of no invasion, though a Ukraine breakthrough or leadership changes could shift dynamics before year-end.