Traders assign a 97.3% probability that no Ukraine peace referendum will pass before 2027 due to the absence of active negotiations, scheduled votes, or diplomatic breakthroughs capable of producing an agreement in the remaining months of 2026. The ongoing conflict shows no verified ceasefire or territorial settlement framework that could trigger the required parliamentary or popular vote under Ukrainian procedures. Historical patterns of stalled talks, combined with entrenched positions on security guarantees and borders, reinforce this consensus. A sudden bilateral or multilateral accord announced before year-end, followed by rapid legislative action and a binding referendum, remains the primary scenario that could still shift the outcome, though such developments lack supporting signals in current diplomatic channels.