Ongoing Russian military pressure in eastern Ukraine, combined with Moscow's insistence on major territorial concessions such as full control of Donetsk oblast, has kept core issues unresolved despite recent U.S. envoy visits to both capitals in early September 2026. Preliminary trilateral talks remain stalled ahead of Russia's State Duma elections, with no ceasefire in place and Ukrainian leadership noting that any deal on territory would require leader-level decisions and sustained security guarantees. Ukrainian constitutional rules further require a sustained ceasefire and secure conditions for a nationwide referendum on territorial changes, conditions absent amid active fighting now entering its fifth year. Traders see these barriers as durable through year-end, though a sudden diplomatic breakthrough or sharp shift in battlefield momentum could still compress the timeline.