Trilateral U.S.-Ukraine-Russia peace talks, including February Geneva meetings, remain stalled since mid-March amid the Iran conflict, with no progress on Russia's demands for Ukraine to forgo NATO membership. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated last week there are no agreements on Ukraine's near-term NATO accession, while urging allies to boost 2026 aid to $60 billion, signaling sustained support without concessions. President Zelenskyy has rejected ceding territory for peace, upholding Kyiv's NATO aspirations amid the Bucharest Summit pathway. A brief Orthodox Easter ceasefire announced April 9 failed to extend or yield breakthroughs. Traders' 80.5% "No" consensus reflects this diplomatic impasse, with low odds of a public pledge by December 31, 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$82,098 Vol.
$82,098 Vol.
31 dic 2026
$82,098 Vol.
$82,098 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Trilateral U.S.-Ukraine-Russia peace talks, including February Geneva meetings, remain stalled since mid-March amid the Iran conflict, with no progress on Russia's demands for Ukraine to forgo NATO membership. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated last week there are no agreements on Ukraine's near-term NATO accession, while urging allies to boost 2026 aid to $60 billion, signaling sustained support without concessions. President Zelenskyy has rejected ceding territory for peace, upholding Kyiv's NATO aspirations amid the Bucharest Summit pathway. A brief Orthodox Easter ceasefire announced April 9 failed to extend or yield breakthroughs. Traders' 80.5% "No" consensus reflects this diplomatic impasse, with low odds of a public pledge by December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ET
Volume
$82,098Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Trilateral U.S.-Ukraine-Russia peace talks, including February Geneva meetings, remain stalled since mid-March amid the Iran conflict, with no progress on Russia's demands for Ukraine to forgo NATO membership. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated last week there are no agreements on Ukraine's near-term NATO accession, while urging allies to boost 2026 aid to $60 billion, signaling sustained support without concessions. President Zelenskyy has rejected ceding territory for peace, upholding Kyiv's NATO aspirations amid the Bucharest Summit pathway. A brief Orthodox Easter ceasefire announced April 9 failed to extend or yield breakthroughs. Traders' 80.5% "No" consensus reflects this diplomatic impasse, with low odds of a public pledge by December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Volume
$82,098Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trilateral U.S.-Ukraine-Russia peace talks, including February Geneva meetings, remain stalled since mid-March amid the Iran conflict, with no progress on Russia's demands for Ukraine to forgo NATO membership. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated last week there are no agreements on Ukraine's near-term NATO accession, while urging allies to boost 2026 aid to $60 billion, signaling sustained support without concessions. President Zelenskyy has rejected ceding territory for peace, upholding Kyiv's NATO aspirations amid the Bucharest Summit pathway. A brief Orthodox Easter ceasefire announced April 9 failed to extend or yield breakthroughs. Traders' 80.5% "No" consensus reflects this diplomatic impasse, with low odds of a public pledge by December 31, 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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