Vladimir Putin’s reelection to a six-year term in March 2024, followed by his May inauguration, established a constitutional path extending his eligibility through 2030 and potentially 2036 after 2020 amendments reset term limits. Traders assign the “No” outcome a 90.5% implied probability because the president continues to exercise direct authority through regular public engagements, Security Council meetings, and policy announcements into 2026 with no visible signs of voluntary resignation, incapacitation, or elite-driven removal. The regime’s centralized control over security services and regional elites, combined with the absence of a designated successor, reduces near-term transition risks, while ongoing military operations in Ukraine have not produced the internal shocks that historically precede leadership changes in similar systems.