Russia has not conducted a full-yield nuclear explosive test since 1990 and maintains its moratorium under the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty framework, despite withdrawing ratification in 2023. Recent developments include May 2026 strategic nuclear forces exercises involving missile launches and large-scale drills, plus a successful Sarmat ICBM flight test, which traders view as standard signaling rather than preparation for an explosive detonation. The expiration of New START in February 2026 and prior 2025 statements on reciprocal testing have kept the topic in focus, yet Russian officials have repeatedly conditioned any test on U.S. action first. Key variables for the market include escalation in ongoing conflicts, arms-control breakdowns, or verifiable site activity at Novaya Zemlya that could shift implied probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoChina warns Russia against any nuclear strike thoughts amid Ukraine conflict
China issued a stern warning to Russia not to consider or discuss nuclear strikes in the Ukraine war, signaling international pressure and diplomatic constraints that likely contributed to the market's low probability of a Russian nuclear test.
Kremlin states nuclear weapons use only if Russia's existence threatened
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov clarified that Russia would only use nuclear weapons if its existence was threatened, signaling restraint and reducing market expectations of a nuclear test in the near term.
China tests submarine-launched ballistic missile, starts naval exercise with Russia
China conducted a submarine-launched ballistic missile test coinciding with the start of the annual Maritime Interaction naval exercise with Russia, signaling military cooperation but no nuclear test by Russia, maintaining market caution about nuclear test likelihood.
China and Russia begin annual naval exercise amid rising tensions
The start of the Maritime Interaction 2026 naval exercise between China and Russia in the Yellow Sea signaled continued military cooperation but did not involve nuclear testing. This event maintained geopolitical tension but did not significantly affect nuclear test probabilities.
China conducts submarine-launched ballistic missile test coinciding with joint naval drills with Russia
China's strategic missile test and the start of annual naval exercises with Russia increased regional military activity but did not involve Russian nuclear testing, contributing to market stability and no significant change in nuclear test probability.
Russia and China begin annual joint naval exercise amid missile tests
Starting July 6, Russia and China commenced their annual Maritime Interaction/Joint Sea exercise, coinciding with China's test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile. This military cooperation and missile activity signaled strategic posturing but did not involve a Russian nuclear test, maintaining market stability.
Russian analyst Yuri Baranchik publicly advocates for series of underground nuclear explosions
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%3%
On July 5, 2026, Russian analyst Yuri Baranchik argued publicly that Russia should conduct a series of underground nuclear explosions starting with low-power tactical warheads and escalating to ICBM warheads. This statement increased market perceptions of a possible nuclear test by the end of 2026, causing a temporary rise in the December 31, 2026 outcome odds.
Russian Analyst Yuri Baranchik Advocates for Underground Nuclear Test Series
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%1%
Russian analyst Yuri Baranchik publicly argued that Russia should conduct underground nuclear explosions to restore deterrence. While reflecting aggressive internal rhetoric, the lack of official state action led the market to quickly discount the threat, with odds dropping back down.
Russian commentator advocates for a series of underground nuclear tests
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%2%
On July 5, 2026, Russian commentator Yuri Baranchik publicly advocated for Russia to conduct a series of underground nuclear explosions, starting with low-power tactical devices and escalating to ICBM warheads. This rhetoric may have influenced market perceptions, but no actual test occurred, keeping probabilities low.
Russian aide advocates series of nuclear tests to intimidate NATO
December 31, 2026 rises to 9%1%
On July 5, a Russian presidential aide publicly suggested conducting a series of underground nuclear tests to demonstrate military capability and intimidate NATO. This rhetoric increased market uncertainty but did not correspond to an actual nuclear detonation, keeping test probability low.
Russian military expert publicly calls for tactical nuclear weapon use in Ukraine
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%1%
Russian military expert Yuri Knutov wrote in a Russian newspaper advocating for the use of tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield in Ukraine to erase fortifications and manpower. This public call raised concerns about nuclear escalation but did not correspond with any confirmed nuclear test, maintaining market skepticism.
Russian official advocates for escalating underground nuclear tests to demonstrate strength
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%2%
On July 5, 2026, Russian aide Yury Baranchik publicly suggested conducting a series of underground nuclear explosions starting with low-yield tactical devices and escalating to ICBM warheads. This rhetoric increased market attention to the possibility of a nuclear test but did not correspond to an actual test, causing some price volatility.
Russian analyst advocates for nuclear tests to restore deterrence
A Russian commentator publicly argued for a series of nuclear tests to restore fear and deterrence, reflecting internal discourse on nuclear posture but no official test announcement. This rhetoric contributed to market awareness of nuclear signaling without triggering a test probability spike.
Russian analyst advocates for series of underground nuclear tests to demonstrate strength
On July 5, 2026, Russian analyst Yuri Baranchik publicly argued that Russia should conduct a series of underground nuclear explosions starting with low-power tactical warheads and escalating to ICBM warheads. This statement increased market speculation about a possible nuclear test by the end of 2026, though no test occurred during the window.
Russian Analyst Yuri Baranchik Urges Series of Underground Nuclear Explosions
Russian analyst Yuri Baranchik publicly argued that Russia should conduct a series of underground nuclear explosions to restore fear and deterrence, temporarily increasing market uncertainty.
Russian analyst publicly advocates for nuclear tests to demonstrate strength
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%2%
On July 5, 2026, Russian analyst Yuri Baranchik publicly argued that Russia should conduct a series of underground nuclear explosions starting with low-power tactical warheads and escalating to ICBM warheads. This statement increased market speculation about a possible nuclear test by the end of 2026, though no test occurred during the window.
Russian official advocates for a series of underground nuclear explosions
On July 5, a Russian aide to the president publicly suggested conducting a series of underground nuclear explosions escalating in scale, indicating a rhetorical escalation in nuclear signaling. This statement contributed to market uncertainty but did not confirm an imminent test.
Russian President Putin responds to Western peace proposals amid nuclear signaling
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%2%
On July 4, Russian President Vladimir Putin responded firmly to Western and possibly eastern partners' proposals for peace without Russia achieving its goals, reinforcing nuclear signaling rhetoric. This maintained market caution but did not indicate an imminent nuclear test.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin responds to Western peace proposals amid nuclear test discourse
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
On July 4, Russian President Vladimir Putin responded to Western and possibly eastern partners' proposals to force peace without Russia achieving its goals. This included nuclear test discussions, with public statements emphasizing nuclear readiness, which likely influenced market speculation and a price increase.
US Warns Russia Is Planning Provocations on Polish Soil to Test NATO Resolve
The United States warned Poland of potential Russian armed provocations, including drone strikes or limited ground incursions from Kaliningrad or Belarus. While this heightened geopolitical tensions, it did not indicate an imminent nuclear test, leading to market caution.
US warns Poland of possible Russian provocation to test NATO resolve
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%1%
The US warned Poland about a potential Russian armed provocation on Polish soil involving drone strikes or limited ground incursions to test NATO's response. This heightened geopolitical tensions but did not indicate a nuclear test by Russia, contributing to market caution regarding nuclear escalation.
Russian Embassy in Sweden reports drone incidents as intimidation attempts
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%1%
The Russian Embassy in Sweden reported drone landings on its grounds, including one carrying a simulated explosive device, which were described as intimidation attempts. While unrelated directly to nuclear testing, these incidents contributed to heightened tensions and perceptions of Russian assertiveness, influencing market sentiment about nuclear risk but not indicating a test.
IISS reports Russia's 18-month drone surveillance campaign over European nuclear sites
The International Institute for Strategic Studies published a report on July 2 revealing that Russia conducted a coordinated drone surveillance campaign over 18 months targeting nuclear and military sites across Europe, using shadow fleet vessels as launch platforms. This intelligence operation heightened tensions but did not involve a nuclear test, maintaining market expectations of no imminent test.
Report reveals extensive Russian drone surveillance over European nuclear sites
The International Institute for Strategic Studies reported that Russia conducted a 15-month drone campaign over Europe targeting NATO nuclear bases and sensitive sites, exposing gaps in allied air defenses. While this demonstrated Russian military reconnaissance capabilities and strategic signaling, it did not involve any nuclear test by Russia.
Russia conducts extensive drone surveillance over European nuclear sites
A report revealed Russia's 19-month drone campaign over sensitive NATO nuclear sites in Europe, demonstrating strategic nuclear reconnaissance but no nuclear test. This underscored Russia's nuclear signaling posture without actual nuclear detonations, keeping market probabilities low.
Loss of emergency response communication capability reported in Louisiana
On July 1, 2026, a major loss of emergency response organization notification methods was reported in Louisiana. While involving radiation monitoring, this event was unrelated to any Russian nuclear test and did not affect market expectations for the nuclear test market.
Report confirms Russia conducted nuclear-powered Burevestnik missile test in late June
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Norwegian military intelligence confirmed a test launch of Russia's nuclear-powered Burevestnik missile on Novaya Zemlya, indicating ongoing nuclear weapons development but not a nuclear explosive test. This maintained market skepticism about a full nuclear test by year-end.
Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality investigates orphan radioactive source
On July 1, 2026, the Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality reported inspection of a radioactive device found at a scrap metal site. This event was unrelated to Russian nuclear testing and did not affect the market probabilities for a Russian nuclear test.
Norway confirms Russia tested nuclear-powered Burevestnik missile with extended range
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%3%
Norwegian military intelligence confirmed a test launch of the nuclear-powered Burevestnik missile that flew much further than before, underscoring Russia's ongoing nuclear weapons development but not constituting a nuclear test detonation. This contributed to market reassessment and a price decline by July 1.
IISS Report Claims Russian Drones Surveilled NATO Nuclear and Military Sites
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%3%
A report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) alleged that Russian intelligence conducted a drone campaign over sensitive NATO military and nuclear sites. This contributed to a brief spike in the market's perceived risk of nuclear escalation.
Russia tests RS-28 Sarmat ICBM, demonstrating advanced nuclear capability
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%3%
On June 29, Russia successfully tested the RS-28 Sarmat ICBM, a key element of its nuclear modernization with a payload capacity exceeding Western counterparts. This demonstration increased market speculation about a potential nuclear test later in 2026, causing a temporary price spike in the probability of a test by December 31, 2026.
Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries cause fuel crisis
Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries intensified, leading to a significant fuel shortage in Russia. This heightened military tension but did not include any nuclear test activity, contributing to market uncertainty and a slight decline in the probability of a Russian nuclear test by year-end.
Russia conducts precision strikes on strategic military installations in Ukraine
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%3%
Russia struck key military and intelligence-related sites in Ukraine, including facilities linked to biological and nuclear components, escalating tensions but not involving a nuclear test. This heightened concerns about nuclear signaling but did not confirm any nuclear detonation, contributing to market uncertainty and a temporary price increase.
Putin delivers speech reinforcing Russia's military strength amid Ukraine conflict
On June 28, Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the United Russia Party Congress, projecting strength and resolve to achieve military objectives in Ukraine. This speech was part of shaping domestic and international perceptions amid ongoing conflict but did not signal a nuclear test. The market interpreted this as continued nuclear posturing without an actual test.
Russia conducts nuclear-capable missile and munitions exercises without nuclear detonation
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%2%
Reports confirmed that Russian and Belarusian forces carried out exercises involving the delivery and transfer of nuclear munitions and tactical nuclear weapons drills, signaling nuclear readiness but without conducting a nuclear test. This military signaling was interpreted as posturing, contributing to market confidence that no nuclear test would occur imminently.
Ukrainian drone strikes intensify against Russian oil and energy infrastructure
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%2%
On June 26, 2026, Ukrainian forces intensified drone strikes on Russian oil and energy infrastructure, exacerbating fuel shortages and economic pressure in Russia. While increasing tensions, these strikes did not trigger any Russian nuclear test, but contributed to the geopolitical context of nuclear signaling.
Russian radicals demand nuclear strike on Ukraine amid escalating conflict
Pro-war hardliners in Russia pressured President Putin to escalate the war with nuclear weapons following effective Ukrainian attacks. This increased market fears of nuclear use but remained political pressure without confirmed nuclear testing.
Multinational Gallant Boar 2026 military exercises end near Suwalki corridor amid NATO-Russia tensions
The conclusion of the Gallant Boar 2026 exercises involving Poland, Lithuania, and France near the Suwalki corridor reflected heightened NATO-Russia tensions but no nuclear test activity. This contributed to market stability and a slight decline in the perceived probability of a Russian nuclear test by year-end.
Russian Military Expert Suggests Possible Tactical Nuclear Weapon Use on Battlefield
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%2%
A Russian military expert publicly proposed the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons in limited battlefield scenarios in Ukraine, increasing market concerns about a possible nuclear test later in the year and causing a temporary rise in the December 31, 2026 outcome odds.
Gallant Boar 2026 military exercises near Suwalki corridor conclude
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%2%
The multinational Gallant Boar 2026 military exercises involving Poland, Lithuania, and France ended on June 26, 2026, near the Suwalki corridor, reflecting heightened NATO-Russia tensions but no nuclear test activity, contributing to market stability and slight decline in nuclear test probability.
Reports of possible Russian provocations in Baltic states and Poland raise tensions
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%2%
Sources reported concerns about potential Russian provocations in the Baltic states or Poland, reflecting heightened geopolitical tensions and fears of escalation including nuclear threats. This contributed to increased market uncertainty and a temporary rise in the probability of a nuclear test by the end of 2026.
NATO countries warn of possible Russian provocations in Baltic states or Poland
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%2%
NATO members on the eastern flank warned that Russia might prepare provocations in the Baltic states or Poland to test NATO cohesion amid ongoing conflict pressures. This heightened geopolitical tensions but did not indicate a nuclear test, contributing to market caution.
Russian Defense Minister Belousov urges preparations for nuclear tests at Novaya Zemlya
On June 25, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov reported to President Putin that the Novaya Zemlya nuclear test site is fully ready for nuclear testing and proposed immediate preparations for full-scale nuclear tests in response to U.S. actions. This indicated Russia's readiness to resume testing but no test occurred during the analysis window, sustaining market caution.
Russian Defense Minister Belousov reports Novaya Zemlya test site fully ready for nuclear testing
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%2%
On June 25, 2026, Defense Minister Andrei Belousov informed President Putin that the Novaya Zemlya nuclear test site was fully prepared for nuclear testing and proposed immediate preparations for full-scale tests in response to U.S. actions. This announcement increased market uncertainty and temporarily raised the probability of a nuclear test by the end of 2026.
Russia Plans High-Capacity Nuclear Fuel Reprocessing Plant
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%2%
Russia announced feasibility and site selection studies for a new high-capacity nuclear fuel reprocessing plant, focusing its nuclear narrative on civil and industrial capabilities rather than military testing.
Russia Pressures Belarus to Deepen Role in Ukraine War Amid Nuclear Sharing
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%2%
Reports highlighted that Russia is pressuring Belarus to expand its involvement in the war, utilizing Belarusian territory where Russian tactical nuclear weapons and forces are already stationed.
NNSA chief calls Russian nuclear threats a sign of weakness
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%
Brandon Williams, head of the U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration, stated that Russian nuclear threats reflect weakness and lack of confidence in conventional forces, signaling that Russia's nuclear posturing is more about signaling than actual testing. This reinforced market views against an imminent nuclear test.
Russia launches large-scale drone attack on Ukraine with 135 drones
Russian forces launched a massive drone attack on Ukrainian territory, deploying various strike UAVs. This significant military escalation increased fears of further conflict intensification but did not involve a nuclear test, keeping market prices stable.
Russia Conducts Nuclear Bomber Drills North of the UK
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%1%
Russia staged nuclear bomber drills over the Barents and Norwegian Seas using Tu-160 strategic bombers. This high-profile military exercise demonstrated nuclear readiness and posturing but did not involve an actual explosive detonation, keeping the market odds for a test low.
Russian President Putin claims final test of Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%1%
Putin announced completion of the final test of the Burevestnik missile, emphasizing its strategic significance and almost unlimited range due to nuclear propulsion. Despite this, the test was not a nuclear detonation but a missile flight test, which maintained market skepticism about an actual nuclear test.
Russian military expert proposes tactical nuclear weapon use in Ukraine battlefield
Yuri Knutov, a Russian military expert, publicly suggested the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons in limited battlefield scenarios in Ukraine, increasing market concerns about a possible nuclear test later in the year and causing a temporary rise in the December 31, 2026 outcome odds.
Russia and Belarus conduct joint tactical nuclear weapons exercises
In late May 2026, Russia and Belarus conducted comprehensive nuclear force exercises involving simulated launches of missiles equipped with nuclear warheads. These exercises demonstrated nuclear signaling but did not involve actual nuclear detonations, influencing market perceptions of Russia's nuclear posture without confirming a test.
Russian and Belarusian forces conduct nuclear munitions delivery and tactical nuclear weapons drills
Russian and Belarusian troops carried out exercises involving the delivery and transfer of nuclear munitions and tactical nuclear weapons, signaling nuclear readiness without conducting a nuclear test. This military signaling was interpreted as posturing, contributing to market confidence that no nuclear test would occur imminently.
Russian General Staff announces delivery of nuclear munitions to Russian and Belarusian units
Valery Gerasimov, chief of the Russian General Staff, stated that nuclear munitions were delivered to Russian and Belarusian units capable of using nuclear weapons, accompanied by tactical nuclear weapons exercises. This military signaling reinforced market views of nuclear readiness without an actual nuclear test, maintaining skepticism about an imminent test.
Russian military expert proposes limited tactical nuclear weapon use in Ukraine
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%2%
Yuri Knutov publicly suggested the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield in Ukraine, raising concerns about nuclear escalation and increasing market perceptions of a possible nuclear test by year-end. This caused a temporary rise in the December 31, 2026 outcome odds.
Russian military expert suggests potential tactical nuclear weapon use in Ukraine
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%2%
Yuri Knutov publicly proposed the use of tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield in Ukraine, raising concerns about nuclear escalation and increasing market perceptions of a possible nuclear test by year-end. This statement caused a temporary rise in the December 31, 2026 outcome odds.
Russian military expert proposes tactical nuclear weapon use in Ukraine
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%2%
On June 19, 2026, Russian military expert Yuri Knutov publicly suggested the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield in Ukraine, raising concerns about nuclear escalation and influencing market perceptions of a possible nuclear test by year-end.
Russian Military Expert Proposes Battlefield Use of Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%1%
Russian military expert Yuri Knutov published an article in Rossiyskaya Gazeta suggesting the use of low-yield tactical nuclear artillery shells along Ukrainian lines, raising concerns about nuclear escalation.
MIT analysis reveals operation of Russia’s nuclear-powered Skyfall missile
MIT researchers published an analysis explaining how Russia’s nuclear-powered Burevestnik ('Skyfall') missile operates, highlighting ongoing nuclear weapons development but not indicating a nuclear test. This reassured markets about no imminent test but kept speculation alive for later in the year.
Reports Detail How Russia's Skyfall Nuclear-Powered Cruise Missile Works
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%1%
New technical reports and expert analyses were published detailing the mechanics of Russia's Burevestnik (Skyfall) nuclear-powered cruise missile, highlighting its hazardous nature but noting it does not provide a decisive strategic advantage.
MIT Researchers Publish Analysis on Russia's Nuclear-Powered 'Skyfall' Missile
An analysis by MIT researchers shed light on the operation of Russia's Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile, confirming technical developments but indicating no plans for an explosive nuclear test.
Report reveals details of Russia's nuclear-powered 'Skyfall' missile technology
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%1%
On June 18, a report detailed Russia's nuclear-powered Burevestnik (Skyfall) missile, highlighting its nuclear propulsion and raising concerns about nuclear weapons development, which maintained market attention on Russia's nuclear capabilities but did not confirm a test.
MIT researchers publish analysis of Russia's nuclear-powered Burevestnik missile
June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%
On June 18, MIT researchers published an analysis explaining how Russia's nuclear-powered Burevestnik missile operates. While this highlighted ongoing nuclear weapons development, it did not indicate a nuclear test, reinforcing market expectations of no test by June 30.
MIT researchers publish analysis of Russia's nuclear-powered Burevestnik missile
The publication of a technical analysis on Russia's nuclear-powered missile highlighted ongoing nuclear weapons development but did not indicate any nuclear test, contributing to market confidence that no test had occurred by mid-June 2026.
MIT researchers analyze Russia's nuclear-powered 'Skyfall' missile revealing risks
On June 18, MIT researchers published an analysis of Russia's nuclear-powered Burevestnik (Skyfall) missile, highlighting its hazardous nature and radioactive plume risk during flight. This reinforced perceptions that Russia's nuclear weapons development is ongoing but does not imply an imminent nuclear test, sustaining market caution.
MIT Researchers Publish Analysis of Russia's Nuclear-Powered Burevestnik Missile
MIT researchers published an analysis showing how the Burevestnik missile operates and its hazardous nature. While highlighting ongoing development, it did not indicate an explosive nuclear test, supporting expectations of no imminent test.
MIT researchers analyze Russia's nuclear-powered 'Skyfall' missile
On June 18, MIT researchers published an analysis shedding light on how Russia's nuclear-powered Burevestnik ('Skyfall') missile operates. While this highlighted Russia's ongoing nuclear weapons development, it did not indicate a nuclear test, supporting market expectations of no test by June 30, 2026.
MIT analysis reveals workings of Russia’s nuclear-powered Burevestnik missile
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
MIT researchers published an analysis explaining how Russia's nuclear-powered Burevestnik missile operates, highlighting ongoing nuclear weapons development but not indicating a nuclear test. This reinforced market expectations of no test by June 30, while increasing speculation about a possible test later in the year, raising December 31 outcome odds.
Ukrainian drone strikes damage major Moscow oil refinery, increasing economic pressure on Russia
On June 16 and 18, Ukrainian drone strikes hit the Kapotnya oil refinery in Moscow, a key fuel supplier, knocking out primary processing units and exacerbating fuel shortages. This heightened economic pressure on Russia amid ongoing tensions but did not trigger a nuclear test, contributing to cautious market sentiment.
Leaked analysis reveals challenges in Russia's nuclear missile reliability
On June 17, reports surfaced about reliability issues in Russia's Oreshnik hypersonic nuclear-capable missile system, indicating manufacturing and guidance problems. This tempered market expectations for an imminent nuclear test, contributing to stabilization of test probability prices.
Russia successfully tests Sarmat ICBM, signaling nuclear readiness
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%2%
On June 17, 2026, Russia announced a successful test launch of the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, a key component of its nuclear arsenal modernization. This demonstration of strategic capability likely caused a temporary increase in market probability for a nuclear test by December 31, 2026, reflecting heightened nuclear posture.
Ukrainian drone attacks hit Moscow oil refinery and airport
Ukraine conducted drone strikes on Moscow's oil refinery and airport, escalating conflict but with no indication of nuclear testing by Russia. This maintained market expectations of no nuclear test by June 30, 2026.
UK intercepts Russian shadow fleet tanker in English Channel
December 31, 2026 jumps to 12%5%
On June 14, British forces intercepted a Russian shadow fleet tanker in the English Channel, part of ongoing efforts to disrupt Russia's oil exports amid the Ukraine conflict. While not directly related to nuclear testing, this event contributed to geopolitical tensions influencing market perceptions of Russia's strategic posture.
Kremlin announces transfer of nuclear munitions to Russian and Belarusian units
A Kremlin press release stated that Russian troops had delivered and transferred nuclear munitions to units in Russia and Belarus, signaling readiness to use nuclear weapons. This announcement heightened market expectations of a possible nuclear test later in the year, causing a sharp increase in the December 31, 2026 outcome odds.
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists reports slow progress in Russia's nuclear modernization
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%
The Bulletin published an assessment noting significant delays and challenges in Russia's nuclear modernization program and no confirmed nuclear test in 2026, supporting market sentiment that a nuclear test was unlikely, contributing to the continued drop in odds.
Market reacts to increased nuclear signaling amid Ukraine conflict
December 31, 2026 jumps to 12%5%
Following a series of nuclear signaling steps by Russia amid negative developments in the Ukraine conflict, the market saw a notable increase in the probability of a nuclear test by December 31, 2026, rising from 7% to 12%. Analysts emphasized the seriousness of Russia’s posture but noted no confirmed nuclear detonation.
Senior Russian Military Official Fanil Sarvarov Killed in Moscow Car Bombing
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%4%
Fanil Sarvarov, head of the General Staff's army operational training directorate, was assassinated in a car explosion near Moscow. The high-profile attack highlighted ongoing domestic security vulnerabilities in Russia, causing brief volatility and spikes in the nuclear test prediction market.
Ukraine launches long-range strikes on Russian military and energy sites
December 31, 2026 jumps to 18%11%
Ukrainian forces struck key Russian military and energy infrastructure, including a defense factory producing drone components, significantly raising fears of escalation and causing a sharp market price spike for a Russian nuclear test by year-end.
Russian Defense Minister Belousov States Tactical Nuclear Weapons Do Not Threaten US
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov stated that Russian tactical nuclear weapons do not pose a threat to the United States, and that attempts to raise the issue in arms control negotiations are futile.
MIT researchers publish analysis of Russia's nuclear-powered Burevestnik missile
December 31, 2026 jumps to 18%11%
On June 18, MIT researchers published an analysis revealing how Russia's nuclear-powered Burevestnik missile operates, highlighting ongoing nuclear weapons development but not indicating a nuclear test. This increased market expectations of a possible test later in the year, causing a temporary rise in December 31, 2026 outcome odds.
Russia successfully tests Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile
December 31, 2026 jumps to 11%5%
On May 12, Russia tested the Sarmat ICBM, a key element of its nuclear modernization, with the military confirming the launch's success. This demonstration of advanced nuclear capability increased market speculation about a potential nuclear test later in 2026, causing a price spike.
Russia’s deputy foreign minister states readiness to use nuclear weapons for security
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%4%
On June 9, Russia's deputy foreign minister declared that Russia and Belarus are prepared to use all means, including nuclear weapons, to ensure their security. This statement reinforced market caution and contributed to a modest increase in the probability of a nuclear test by the end of 2026, without indicating an imminent test.
Global nuclear arsenal modernization continues amid rising tensions
December 31, 2026 dips to 7%1%
Reports highlighted ongoing modernization of nuclear arsenals by Russia and other nuclear states, with increased geopolitical tensions and breakdowns in arms control. This context maintained market caution but did not indicate an imminent Russian nuclear test.
Russia conducts drone strike on nuclear fuel storage near Chernobyl
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%3%
Russian forces launched a drone attack on the Centralized Spent Nuclear Fuel Storage Facility near Chernobyl, causing damage but no nuclear detonation. The strike was classified as a war crime by Ukraine, increasing geopolitical tensions but not constituting a nuclear test, keeping market prices low.
Ukraine classifies Russian strike on nuclear fuel storage near Chornobyl as war crime
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%1%
The Security Service of Ukraine declared a Russian strike on the Centralized Spent Nuclear Fuel Storage Facility near Chornobyl a war crime, highlighting the ongoing nuclear tensions but no nuclear test by Russia.
SBU Classifies Russian Strike on Spent Nuclear Fuel Storage Facility Near Chornobyl as War Crime
December 31, 2026 jumps to 20%13%
A Russian Geran-2 drone struck the Centralized Spent Nuclear Fuel Storage Facility near Chornobyl, raising nuclear safety concerns and contributing to a temporary spike in nuclear-related market anxiety.
Local ceasefire declared near Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant for critical repairs
December 31, 2026 rises to 8%1%
A local ceasefire was implemented to allow repairs to a damaged high-voltage power line critical for the safe operation of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. This reduced immediate nuclear accident risks but did not involve any nuclear testing by Russia, maintaining market caution.
Russia intensifies drone attacks on Ukraine with heavy losses
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%
Russian forces launched numerous drone attacks on Ukrainian territory, with Ukraine shooting down most drones. These conventional military actions, including strikes on critical infrastructure, did not involve nuclear testing, reinforcing market expectations against a nuclear test.
German military space commander warns Russia may develop orbital nuclear weapons
December 31, 2026 jumps to 12%5%
Major General Michael Traut warned that Russia might be working on technology to place nuclear devices in orbit, which could have severe consequences for satellite infrastructure. This raised concerns about escalation but did not involve a nuclear test, reinforcing market expectations of no test by June 30.
German Council on Foreign Relations publishes memo on Russia's nuclear signaling
The DGAP memo analyzed Russia's recent nuclear signaling steps, including the May missile test and nuclear exercises, emphasizing the seriousness of Russia's nuclear posture and urging NATO and Germany to respond. This analysis reinforced market expectations of no imminent nuclear test but kept concerns elevated, influencing price dynamics for both outcomes.
Russia conducts strategic nuclear forces exercise rehearsing nuclear launch response
From May 19 to 21, Russia held a sudden exercise of its strategic nuclear forces to rehearse nuclear weapon launches in response to hypothetical external attacks. This nuclear signaling heightened concerns but did not indicate an actual test, supporting market expectations of no test by June 30.
German Council on Foreign Relations warns of Russia's nuclear signaling in May 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%2%
A memo highlighted Russia's nuclear signaling steps including ICBM tests and exercises in May 2026, urging NATO and Germany to respond. This analysis underscored heightened tensions but no nuclear test, supporting market declines in test probability.
Russia conducts strategic nuclear forces exercise amid heightened tensions
December 31, 2026 rises to 9%1%
From May 19 to 21, Russia held a sudden exercise of its strategic nuclear forces, rehearsing nuclear weapon launches in response to hypothetical attacks. This military signaling increased market attention on Russia's nuclear capabilities, modestly raising the December 31, 2026 outcome odds.
DGAP memo warns NATO to take Russia's nuclear exercises seriously
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
DGAP published analysis emphasizing the need for NATO and Germany to respond to Russia's recent ICBM test and nuclear exercises, highlighting increased nuclear signaling risks. This maintained market attention on the possibility of a nuclear test later in 2026, supporting stable or slightly increased prices for longer-dated outcomes.
Analysis warns of implications of Russia's nuclear signaling for European security
December 31, 2026 dips to 7%1%
A policy analysis discussed Russia's nuclear exercises and missile tests as strategic signaling to Europe and NATO, emphasizing the seriousness of Russia's nuclear posture but not indicating a nuclear test. This contributed to market caution but no increase in nuclear test probability.
DGAP memo urges NATO response to Russian nuclear signaling
The German Council on Foreign Relations published a memo analyzing Russia's nuclear signaling steps in May, reinforcing market caution and maintaining low probabilities for a near-term test.
Zaporizhzhia Thermal Power Plant hit by heavy fire, threatening nuclear safety
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%4%
Russian forces shelled the Zaporizhzhia Thermal Power Plant, endangering the power supply critical for the safety of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. This incident raised nuclear safety concerns but was unrelated to any nuclear test by Russia.
DGAP memo urges NATO response to Russia's nuclear signaling and ICBM test
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
The German Council on Foreign Relations published a memo analyzing Russia's nuclear signaling steps in May 2026, emphasizing the need for NATO and Germany to respond to Russia's recent ICBM test and nuclear exercises. This diplomatic analysis reflected heightened concerns but no nuclear test, reinforcing market expectations of no test by June 30.
DGAP report highlights Russia's nuclear signaling amid Ukraine conflict
December 31, 2026 jumps to 13%5%
A German Council on Foreign Relations report analyzed Russia's nuclear signaling steps in May 2026, linking them to negative developments in the Ukraine war. The report urged NATO to take these signals seriously but did not report any nuclear test, maintaining market caution.
DGAP warns NATO to take Russia's nuclear signaling seriously after ICBM test
December 31, 2026 rises to 8%1%
The German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) issued a memo urging NATO allies to respond to Russia's recent ICBM test and nuclear exercises, highlighting the seriousness of Russia's nuclear signaling amid the Ukraine conflict. This reinforced market caution and modest price increases for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
DGAP warns of Russia's nuclear signaling amid Ukraine conflict
December 31, 2026 dips to 7%1%
The German Council on Foreign Relations highlighted Russia's nuclear signaling steps in May 2026, correlating with negative developments in Ukraine, emphasizing the seriousness of Russia's nuclear posture without any nuclear test occurring. This analysis influenced market perceptions of nuclear risk.
Russia and Belarus conduct large-scale nuclear force exercises
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%2%
In late May and early June, Russia and Belarus conducted comprehensive nuclear force exercises involving simulated launches of missiles equipped with nuclear warheads, signaling nuclear readiness but not conducting an actual nuclear test.
DGAP memo highlights Russia’s nuclear signaling and urges NATO response
The German Council on Foreign Relations published a memo analyzing Russia's nuclear signaling steps in May 2026, emphasizing the seriousness of recent ICBM tests and nuclear exercises. This reinforced market caution and modestly supported the probability of a nuclear test by the end of 2026, though no test occurred.
Analysis highlights Russia's nuclear signaling and implications for European security
A DGAP memo published on June 4 analyzed Russia's recent nuclear signaling, including the May missile test and exercises, emphasizing the need for NATO to take these developments seriously. This analysis reflected ongoing concerns but did not indicate any nuclear test, reinforcing market expectations of no test by June 30.
Zaporizhzhia Thermal Power Plant heavily shelled by Russian forces, threatening nuclear safety
Russian shelling of the Zaporizhzhia Thermal Power Plant endangered the power supply critical for cooling the nuclear reactors, raising nuclear accident risks. Despite the threat, no nuclear test was conducted, contributing to the market's declining probability of a Russian nuclear test.
DGAP Memo Analyzes Russia's Nuclear Signaling and Downplays Imminent Test Likelihood
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%3%
A report by the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) analyzed Russia's recent strategic nuclear exercises and ICBM tests, concluding that while the signaling must be taken seriously, an actual nuclear test or escalation remains unlikely.
Russian forces heavily shell Zaporizhzhia Thermal Power Plant, threatening nuclear safety
December 31, 2026 dips to 7%1%
Russian attacks on the Zaporizhzhia Thermal Power Plant, which supplies power to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, increased risks of nuclear accidents but did not involve a nuclear test. This sustained threat contributed to market skepticism about a nuclear test occurring soon.
Analysis highlights Russia’s nuclear signaling amid Ukraine conflict
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%3%
A DGAP memo analyzed Russia's nuclear signaling steps in May 2026, correlating them with negative developments in Ukraine. The report emphasized the low likelihood of an imminent nuclear test but underscored the seriousness of Russia’s nuclear exercises, influencing market perceptions and maintaining low probabilities for a nuclear test within the year.
DGAP Publishes Analysis on Russia's Nuclear Signaling and May Exercises
September 30, 2026 rises to 5%1%
The German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) published a memo analyzing Russia's May nuclear exercises, concluding they were political signaling rather than precursors to nuclear escalation, which helped stabilize the market.
DGAP publishes analysis of Russia's nuclear signaling and exercises
DGAP released a memo analyzing Russia's May 2026 nuclear signaling steps, including strategic nuclear force exercises and missile tests, highlighting the need for NATO to respond. This reinforced market caution and modestly increased the December 31, 2026 outcome odds.
German Council on Foreign Relations analyzes Russia's nuclear signaling
The DGAP published a memo analyzing Russia's May nuclear exercises and ICBM test, concluding they were signaling steps linked to the Ukraine war. This diplomatic analysis reassured the market that no actual explosive test was imminent, stabilizing expectations.
Russian diplomat Sergey Ryabkov issues fresh nuclear warnings to Western nations
December 31, 2026 jumps to 12%5%
On June 3, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov reiterated threats regarding potential use of nuclear weapons if Russia's territorial integrity is threatened, raising market concerns about nuclear escalation and influencing the probability of a nuclear test by year-end.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov Issues Fresh Nuclear Warnings to Western Nations
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov reiterated threats regarding the potential use of nuclear weapons, emphasizing that encroachment on Russian territory could lead to a nuclear response.
DGAP publishes memo analyzing Russia's nuclear signaling
December 31, 2026 rises to 8%1%
The German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) published an analysis of Russia's recent ICBM test and nuclear exercises, urging NATO to respond. This expert assessment highlighted the seriousness of Russia's nuclear posture, contributing to a modest rise in the December 31, 2026 contract.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister warns of nuclear response to territorial encroachment
December 31, 2026 rises to 8%1%
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov warned that any encroachment on Russia or its territorial integrity could lead to a nuclear response, heightening nuclear rhetoric and increasing market caution about a nuclear test possibility.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister issues nuclear warnings amid heightened tensions
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%3%
Sergey Ryabkov reiterated threats of potential nuclear weapon use in response to perceived aggression, emphasizing Russia's nuclear deterrence posture. This statement increased geopolitical tensions but did not indicate an imminent nuclear test, maintaining market skepticism about a test by June 30.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov issues fresh nuclear warnings to the West
December 31, 2026 jumps to 12%5%
On June 3, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov warned that any encroachment on Russia or its territorial integrity could lead to a nuclear response. This heightened nuclear rhetoric contributed to increased market caution and a modest rise in the probability of a nuclear test by December 31, 2026.
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant suffers 17th blackout under Russian occupation
The occupied Zaporizhzhia NPP lost external power supply again, marking the 17th blackout since Russian control. Each blackout poses nuclear safety risks but no nuclear test occurred, maintaining market doubts about a Russian nuclear test.
Russia’s Arkhangelsk nuclear submarine conducts successful missile test in Arctic
December 31, 2026 rises to 8%1%
On June 3, Russia’s Arkhangelsk nuclear submarine fired an Oniks cruise missile from underwater, hitting a target 200 km away. This demonstration of nuclear-capable delivery systems reinforced perceptions of Russia’s nuclear capabilities but did not indicate a nuclear test, supporting market caution and modest price movements.
Russian nuclear submarine Arkhangelsk conducts missile test in Barents Sea
The Arkhangelsk nuclear-powered submarine launched a cruise missile striking a target 200 km away, demonstrating Russia's naval nuclear capabilities but not constituting a nuclear test. This military activity maintained market awareness of Russia's nuclear posture without confirming a test.
Russia renews accusations against Ukraine for shelling Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant
December 31, 2026 dips to 7%1%
Russia accused Ukraine of airstrikes on the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to justify escalatory actions. Ukraine denied these claims, and the accusations were seen as part of an information campaign, not evidence of a Russian nuclear test, reinforcing market skepticism.
Russia renews accusations of Ukrainian shelling at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant
Russia officially accused Ukraine of airstrikes on the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, aiming to justify escalatory actions. This increased concerns about nuclear risks but did not indicate a nuclear test by Russia.
Russia renews accusations against Ukraine for shelling Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant
Russia accused Ukraine of airstrikes on the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to justify escalatory actions. Ukraine denied these claims, and no nuclear test was reported, reinforcing market views that a nuclear test was unlikely in the near term.
EU Condemns Russian Drone Crash in Romania as Medvedev Warns of More Incidents
Following a Russian drone crash in Romania, Dmitry Medvedev warned Europe to brace for more incidents, escalating regional tensions but keeping actions below the nuclear threshold.
Missile alert issued in Yamal region, Russia for first time since war began
A missile alert was declared in Russia's Yamal region, a key energy area far from combat zones, indicating heightened military alertness but no nuclear test. This event reflected increased tensions without nuclear detonation, consistent with low market prices for a nuclear test.
EU condemns Russian drone attack violating EU airspace
The EU strongly condemned a Russian drone carrying explosives crashing into Romanian territory, highlighting ongoing conflict tensions but no nuclear test. This event maintained geopolitical tensions without affecting nuclear test probabilities significantly.
Ukraine displays Belarusian electronics from Russian Oreshnik missile system
Ukraine showcased components from Russian missiles including the Oreshnik system, highlighting Belarusian and Russian-made parts. This underscored ongoing missile threats but did not indicate a nuclear test, reinforcing market skepticism about imminent Russian nuclear detonations.
EU to discuss increasing pressure on Moscow after Oreshnik missile strike
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%2%
Following Russia's use of the Oreshnik missile, the EU announced plans to discuss new measures to increase pressure on Moscow, framing the missile use as a reckless nuclear threat. This diplomatic response contributed to market uncertainty but did not indicate a nuclear test, influencing the probabilities for longer-term outcomes.
Russia deploys hypersonic Oreshnik missile in conventional strike on Kyiv
Russia launched a massive missile and drone attack on Kyiv, employing the hypersonic Oreshnik missile. Because the strike was entirely conventional and did not involve a nuclear detonation, it signaled that Russia's advanced delivery systems were being used without nuclear testing, contributing to a decline in market odds.
Russia launches massive missile and drone attack on Kyiv using nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%3%
Russia conducted a large-scale missile and drone strike on Kyiv, including the use of the hypersonic Oreshnik missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads, though only conventional warheads were used. This attack was a significant escalation and a demonstration of nuclear-capable weapon use without an actual nuclear detonation, causing a sharp drop in market odds for a nuclear test by June 30, 2026.
Russia launches massive missile and drone strike on Kyiv using Oreshnik and other missiles
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%
Russia conducted a large-scale missile and drone attack on Kyiv, employing the hypersonic Oreshnik missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Despite the missile's nuclear capability, the strikes were conventional, and no nuclear test was reported, which led to a further decline in market prices for nuclear test occurrence.
Russia uses hypersonic Oreshnik missile in massive attack on Kyiv
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%
Russia launched a large-scale missile and drone attack on Kyiv using the hypersonic Oreshnik missile, which is capable of carrying nuclear warheads. This military escalation raised concerns about nuclear risks but was not a nuclear test, leading to further market price declines.
Russia uses nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile in mass attack on Kyiv
December 31, 2026 rises to 8%1%
On May 24, Russia launched a massive missile and drone attack on Kyiv, including the use of the nuclear-capable Oreshnik hypersonic missile. This attack was part of ongoing hostilities but did not constitute a nuclear test. The use of nuclear-capable weapons in conflict increased tensions but did not affect the market's nuclear test probability significantly.
EU to discuss increased pressure on Moscow after use of nuclear-capable missiles
Following reports of Russia's use of the 'Oreshnik' medium-range ballistic missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads in attacks on Ukraine, the EU announced plans to discuss stepping up pressure on Moscow. This reflected international concern over Russia's nuclear threats but no nuclear test occurred.
Russia uses hypersonic Oreshnik missile in missile strike on Kyiv
Russia launched a missile strike on Kyiv using the hypersonic Oreshnik missile, capable of carrying nuclear warheads, causing casualties and damage. This marked the third known use of the missile in the conflict but was a conventional strike, not a nuclear test, keeping market expectations low for a nuclear test.
Russia uses hypersonic Oreshnik missile in massive drone and missile attack on Kyiv
December 31, 2026 dips to 4%2%
Russia launched a massive missile and drone attack on Kyiv including the use of the nuclear-capable hypersonic Oreshnik missile, though only conventional warheads were used. This attack was a significant escalation but did not constitute a nuclear test detonation, influencing market skepticism about a test by mid-2026.
EU discusses increasing pressure on Moscow after Russian missile strikes
December 31, 2026 dips to 7%1%
Following Russian use of medium-range ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads in Ukraine, the EU considered stepping up sanctions and diplomatic pressure on Russia. This political response reflected heightened tensions but did not indicate a nuclear test, contributing to market declines.
EU considers increased pressure on Moscow after use of nuclear-capable missiles
December 31, 2026 drops to 7%5%
Following reports of Russia using 'Oreshnik' medium-range ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads in attacks on Ukraine, the EU announced plans to discuss stepping up pressure on Russia. This political response highlighted nuclear risks but did not confirm any nuclear test, contributing to market skepticism.
EU Condemns Russia's Use of Nuclear-Capable Oreshnik Missile
The European Union strongly criticized Russia's deployment of the Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile, calling it a reckless risk of nuclear war and a political tactic of intimidation.
EU officials condemn Russia's use of Oreshnik missile and discuss increasing pressure on Moscow
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%2%
The EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs called Russia's use of the Oreshnik missile a reckless risk of nuclear war and announced plans to discuss increased international pressure on Russia. This political response underscored the seriousness of the missile's nuclear capability but did not indicate an actual nuclear test, reinforcing market skepticism.
NPT Review Conference ends without consensus amid nuclear tensions
The 11th NPT Review Conference concluded without adopting a final document, reflecting deep international divisions on nuclear disarmament amid rising nuclear tensions. This outcome underscored the challenging environment for nuclear arms control but did not signal any imminent Russian nuclear test, contributing to market caution.
Russia supplies Belarus with nuclear weapons during joint drills near Ukraine border
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%3%
Russia supplied Belarus with nuclear weapons and missile systems during joint military drills near the Ukrainian border, heightening regional tensions and nuclear signaling. This reinforced market caution but did not indicate a nuclear test, supporting modest price increases for longer-term outcomes.
Russia launches Yars ICBM during large-scale joint nuclear drills with Belarus
During extensive joint nuclear exercises with Belarus, Russia test-fired a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile, demonstrating strategic readiness without conducting a nuclear test detonation. This reinforced nuclear signaling but did not increase the likelihood of an actual nuclear test.
Putin and Lukashenko monitor joint Russia-Belarus nuclear exercises via video conference
Russian and Belarusian presidents participated directly in joint nuclear forces exercises involving missile launches and strategic bombers, demonstrating nuclear force coordination but no nuclear test. This event maintained market expectations of no imminent nuclear detonation by Russia.
Russia delivers nuclear munitions to units in Russia and Belarus amid nuclear exercises
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%1%
Russian forces conducted nuclear exercises including the delivery and transfer of nuclear munitions to units in Russia and Belarus, signaling readiness but not involving a nuclear test detonation. This heightened concerns about nuclear posture but did not indicate an actual test, leading to cautious market reactions and a continued decline in test probability.
Russia says troops delivered nuclear munitions during May exercise
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%4%
A Kremlin press release, quoted by arms‑control analysts, said Russian troops had delivered and transferred nuclear munitions to units in Russia and Belarus, signalling readiness to use nuclear weapons. The news heightened expectations of a possible test later in the year, lifting the December‑31 odds sharply on June 11.
Russia delivers nuclear munitions to Belarusian units amid nuclear drills
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%1%
Russian General Staff chief Valery Gerasimov announced the delivery and transfer of nuclear munitions to Russian and Belarusian units capable of using nuclear weapons, reinforcing nuclear signaling but not involving a nuclear test detonation. This contributed to market uncertainty.
Russia completes major nuclear drills with missile launches and strategic force displays
December 31, 2026 dips to 7%1%
Russia concluded its nuclear drills involving missile launches, nuclear submarines, and aircraft, reinforcing nuclear readiness without conducting a nuclear test detonation. This confirmed the market's declining expectation of a test by the deadlines.
Putin and Lukashenko supervise largest nuclear exercises since Cold War
September 30, 2026 rises to 5%1%
Vladimir Putin and Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko jointly supervised the largest nuclear exercises since the Cold War, involving missile launches simulating land, sea, and air operations, raising concerns among NATO and Ukraine.
Russia launches major nuclear-capable missile exercises and transfers nuclear munitions to troops
On May 21, Russia conducted large-scale nuclear exercises involving 64,000 personnel and launched nuclear-capable missiles, including the delivery and transfer of nuclear munitions to Russian and Belarusian units. This military signaling heightened market concerns about a possible nuclear test but was interpreted as posturing rather than an imminent test.
Putin and Lukashenko oversee largest joint nuclear exercises since Cold War
Russian and Belarusian leaders supervised extensive nuclear-capable missile exercises involving land, sea, and air forces. The drills, involving 64,000 personnel, simulated nuclear force readiness but did not include actual nuclear detonations, which maintained market skepticism about a nuclear test occurring soon.
Russia and Belarus conduct joint nuclear exercises including Yars ICBM launch
September 30, 2026 rises to 5%1%
On May 21, Russia and Belarus completed combined nuclear force exercises, including the launch of a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile and the delivery of nuclear munitions to Belarusian units. This demonstrated Russia's nuclear readiness and strategic cooperation with Belarus but did not involve a nuclear test detonation, causing market uncertainty and a slight decline in short-term test probability.
Russia and Belarus conduct tactical nuclear weapons exercises
September 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%
Following the Sarmat test and nuclear exercises, Russian and Belarusian forces conducted tactical nuclear weapons drills, demonstrating nuclear readiness without conducting a nuclear test, which maintained market skepticism about a test by the deadlines.
Russia launches nuclear-capable missiles in major exercises amid NATO tensions
Russia launched nuclear-capable missiles and issued nuclear munitions to units during large-scale nuclear exercises, demonstrating strategic capabilities amid heightened tensions with NATO. These actions did not involve a nuclear test detonation, sustaining low market probabilities for a test.
Russia issues nuclear munitions amid major nuclear exercises amid NATO tensions
Russia launched nuclear-capable missiles and issued nuclear munitions to some units during major nuclear exercises amid heightened tensions with NATO, demonstrating nuclear force readiness but no nuclear test was conducted.
Russian General Staff confirms delivery and transfer of nuclear munitions to Russian and Belarusian units
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%3%
On May 21, 2026, Russian General Staff chief Valery Gerasimov stated that troops carried out the delivery and transfer of nuclear munitions to units in Russia and Belarus capable of using nuclear weapons. This official confirmation of nuclear munitions deployment reinforced market expectations of a nuclear test possibility.
Russian Ministry of Defense details nuclear force exercise with missile launches
The Russian MoD announced that nuclear units launched ballistic and cruise missiles within Russia during the May 19-21 exercise, involving strategic missile forces and fleets. This demonstration of nuclear readiness was a strong signal but did not constitute a nuclear test detonation, maintaining market caution.
Russia and Belarus conduct tactical nuclear weapons exercises amid strategic drills
December 31, 2026 dips to 4%3%
Following the Sarmat missile test and large-scale nuclear exercises, Russian and Belarusian forces carried out tactical nuclear weapons exercises, signaling continued nuclear readiness and deterrence posture. Despite these maneuvers, no nuclear test detonation was reported, which led to further market price declines for a nuclear test occurring by the end of 2026.
Putin and Lukashenko monitor joint Russia-Belarus nuclear exercises
Russian and Belarusian presidents participated via video conference in joint nuclear forces exercises involving missile launches and nuclear munitions delivery, emphasizing nuclear signaling without nuclear detonations, sustaining market expectations of no test.
Russia and Belarus conduct joint strategic nuclear drills with leadership participation
December 31, 2026 dips to 7%1%
Russian and Belarusian forces conducted joint nuclear-capable missile launches and strategic drills, including launches of ballistic and hypersonic missiles. The exercises were part of ongoing nuclear readiness demonstrations but did not involve a nuclear test, reinforcing market expectations against an imminent test.
Russian General Staff confirms delivery and transfer of nuclear munitions during exercises
On May 21, Russian General Staff chief Valery Gerasimov confirmed the delivery and transfer of nuclear munitions to Russian and Belarusian units capable of using nuclear weapons during the recent exercises, reinforcing nuclear signaling but not indicating a nuclear test. This official confirmation maintained market caution but did not increase the probability of a nuclear test.
Russia launches nuclear-capable missiles and issues nuclear munitions amid NATO tensions
December 31, 2026 rises to 8%1%
As part of ongoing nuclear drills, Russia launched nuclear-capable missiles and issued nuclear munitions to units, signaling nuclear readiness amid heightened tensions but without conducting a nuclear detonation, sustaining market skepticism about an imminent test.
Russian troops deliver nuclear munitions in major exercise including Belarusian units
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%2%
Russian General Staff chief Valery Gerasimov announced the delivery and transfer of nuclear munitions to Russian and Belarusian units capable of using nuclear weapons during exercises. This nuclear signaling raised concerns but did not indicate a nuclear test, contributing to market declines in test probability.
Russia and Belarus complete combined nuclear force exercises
September 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%
The combined Russian-Belarusian nuclear exercises concluded, demonstrating Russia's ability to deploy nuclear munitions in Belarus and rehearse launch procedures, but no nuclear detonation occurred. This maintained market skepticism about an imminent nuclear test, contributing to continued low prices.
Russia flexes nuclear muscles amid NATO tensions with missile launches and munitions issuance
Russia launched nuclear-capable missiles and issued nuclear munitions to some units during major nuclear exercises amid heightened tensions with NATO over the Ukraine war and Baltic drone activity. This military signaling reinforced perceptions of nuclear capability without crossing into nuclear testing, sustaining low market probabilities for a test.
Russia and Belarus Complete Combined Strategic Nuclear Exercises
Russia and Belarus concluded their joint nuclear drills, which included simulated deliveries of nuclear munitions to Belarus and the test launch of a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile.
Russia launches largest nuclear exercises including Belarusian launch sites
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%
Russia launched its largest nuclear exercises in years, mobilizing tens of thousands of troops and numerous strategic assets, including nuclear submarines and missile launchers, with Belarusian forces participating. This display of nuclear muscle amid geopolitical tensions did not involve a nuclear test detonation, further pushing market prices down as the test likelihood diminished.
Russia delivers nuclear munitions and launches nuclear-capable missiles amid NATO tensions
Russia issued nuclear munitions to units and launched nuclear-capable missiles as part of major nuclear exercises, signaling nuclear muscle-flexing but no nuclear test detonation. This maintained low market expectations for a nuclear test by mid-2026.
Russia delivers nuclear munitions to Belarusian and Russian units during nuclear drills
Russian General Staff chief Valery Gerasimov announced the delivery and transfer of nuclear munitions to Russian and Belarusian units capable of using nuclear weapons, as part of ongoing nuclear exercises. This nuclear signaling amid geopolitical tensions reinforced market expectations of no imminent nuclear test, further lowering prices.
Russia issues nuclear munitions and launches nuclear-capable missiles amid NATO tensions
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%
Russia deployed nuclear munitions to units and launched nuclear-capable missiles during major exercises amid heightened tensions with NATO, signaling nuclear readiness but without conducting a nuclear test detonation. This contributed to market declines in the probability of a nuclear test.
Russia announces nuclear exercises following Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%2%
Following a major Ukrainian drone strike on Moscow on May 17, Russia announced nuclear exercises from May 19 to 21 rehearsing nuclear weapon launch procedures. This was interpreted as nuclear signaling correlated with negative developments in the Ukraine war, reinforcing market caution and modest increases in the probability of a nuclear test by the end of 2026.
Russia issues nuclear munitions and launches nuclear-capable missiles amid NATO tensions
Amid heightened tensions with NATO, Russia issued nuclear munitions to units and launched nuclear-capable missiles during exercises, signaling nuclear readiness but not conducting a nuclear test detonation. This maintained low market probabilities for a nuclear test.
Russia test-fires nuclear-capable missiles during ongoing nuclear drills amid NATO tensions
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%
During the ongoing nuclear exercises, Russia test-fired nuclear-capable missiles including the Yars ICBM and Zircon hypersonic missile, reinforcing its nuclear deterrence posture. This further pressured market prices downward as geopolitical tensions escalated, though no nuclear test detonation occurred.
Russia issues nuclear munitions and launches nuclear-capable missiles amid NATO tensions
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%
As part of ongoing nuclear drills, Russia issued nuclear munitions to units and launched nuclear-capable missiles, signaling nuclear muscle-flexing but without conducting a nuclear test. This continued demonstration of nuclear capability without a test detonation contributed to the market's low probability for a nuclear test by December 31, 2026.
Russia delivers nuclear warheads in major exercise amid Ukraine conflict
Russian troops moved nuclear warheads during a three-day exercise, underscoring Moscow's nuclear posture amid its conflict with the West over Ukraine. This military signaling reinforced the market's view of nuclear capability without a nuclear test, sustaining low probabilities for a test event.
Russia flexes nuclear muscles with missile launches and nuclear munitions delivery amid NATO tensions
September 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%
Russia launched nuclear-capable missiles and issued nuclear munitions to units during major nuclear exercises amid heightened tensions with NATO. This show of force underscored Russia's nuclear readiness but did not constitute a nuclear test detonation, further reducing market expectations for a test by the deadlines.
Russia and Belarus Deliver Nuclear Munitions in Tactical Exercises
Russian and Belarusian forces conducted joint tactical nuclear weapons exercises, including the simulated delivery and transfer of nuclear warheads to combat units, signaling readiness without explosive testing.
Russia displays nuclear munitions and missiles during major nuclear exercises
September 30, 2026 plunges to 5%46%
Russia launched nuclear-capable missiles and issued nuclear munitions to some units during major nuclear exercises amid heightened tensions with NATO over the Ukraine war and drone activity in the Baltic.
Russia and Belarus conduct large-scale joint nuclear-capable missile drills
Russia and Belarus held extensive nuclear drills involving ballistic missiles, submarines, and strategic bombers, signaling military strength amid tensions but without conducting a nuclear test. This show of force initially maintained some market uncertainty about a potential test but did not confirm any nuclear detonation, contributing to a gradual price decline.
Russia and Belarus recognize each other's nuclear positions amid strategic arms concerns
Following the expiration of the New START treaty, Russia and Belarus issued statements recognizing each other's nuclear positions and expressing concerns about nuclear proliferation. This diplomatic development underscored ongoing nuclear tensions but did not involve a nuclear test.
Russia shows troops loading nuclear warheads onto Iskander‑M launchers in major exercise
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%1%
Russia released footage of troops loading nuclear warheads onto mobile Iskander‑M launchers as part of a large‑scale nuclear exercise. While the drill demonstrated readiness, it also signalled that Russia was focusing on conventional‑level nuclear posturing rather than conducting an actual test, nudging the market further down.
Russia begins large‑scale nuclear forces exercise without prior notice
September 30, 2026 rises to 5%1%
Russia launched an unannounced, massive nuclear‑forces exercise involving 64,000 troops, 200 missile launchers and 13 submarines. The scale and surprise raised concerns that Russia might move toward a real nuclear test, nudging the September‑30 odds upward.
Russia launches unannounced major nuclear exercise including Belarusian launch sites
Russia conducted a major nuclear forces exercise involving delivery and preparation of nuclear warheads, including operations from Belarusian territory. This military drill was framed as preparation for nuclear force use in case of aggression but did not involve an actual nuclear test detonation, reinforcing market expectations against a nuclear test by the deadlines.
Russia conducts unannounced nuclear exercise including Belarusian launch sites
Russia launched nuclear-capable missiles and issued nuclear munitions to units during a major nuclear exercise involving Belarusian sites, signaling nuclear muscle-flexing amid geopolitical tensions but no nuclear test detonation. This reinforced market views that a nuclear test was unlikely in the near term.
Russia demonstrates nuclear warhead delivery in major military exercise
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%1%
Russia publicly displayed troops loading nuclear warheads onto missile launchers and rehearsed nuclear weapon use procedures during a large-scale exercise. This demonstration was a strategic deterrence signal rather than an actual nuclear test, contributing to the market's declining probability of a nuclear test by the deadlines.
Russia conducts major nuclear exercise with warhead delivery drills
June 30, 2026 rises to 3%1%
Russian forces demonstrated delivery and loading of nuclear warheads onto mobile missile launchers during a large nuclear exercise, emphasizing combat readiness but not conducting a nuclear test. This reinforced market perceptions of nuclear threat without confirming a test.
Russia launches largest nuclear exercises including Belarusian launch sites
December 31, 2026 dips to 7%1%
Russia began massive nuclear drills involving tens of thousands of troops, missile launchers, aircraft, and submarines, including rehearsals for nuclear weapon use. Despite the scale and nuclear focus, these were exercises without an actual nuclear detonation, reinforcing market views against an imminent nuclear test.
Russia conducts major nuclear-capable forces exercise including Belarusian sites
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%1%
Russia launched a large-scale nuclear forces exercise involving nuclear-capable missiles and munitions, demonstrating readiness and deterrence without conducting a nuclear test. This military signaling maintained market skepticism about an imminent nuclear detonation.
Russia shows troops moving nuclear warheads in major exercise
December 31, 2026 rises to 8%1%
Russian military displayed the delivery and transfer of nuclear munitions to units capable of using nuclear weapons during exercises. This demonstration of nuclear readiness reinforced market views of ongoing nuclear modernization without a nuclear test event.
Russia shows troops moving nuclear warheads in major exercise
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
On May 20, 2026, Russia publicly displayed troops transporting nuclear warheads during a large-scale exercise, emphasizing nuclear readiness without conducting a nuclear test. This demonstration reinforced market expectations that Russia was signaling rather than detonating nuclear devices.
Russia conducts large-scale nuclear forces exercise including Belarusian launch sites
December 31, 2026 dips to 7%2%
Russia launched unannounced nuclear exercises involving land, sea, and air-based strategic forces, signaling nuclear readiness and deterrence without conducting an actual nuclear test. This military signaling likely maintained market caution but did not increase test probability.
Russia shows troops delivering nuclear warheads in major exercise
September 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%
Russia publicly displayed troops moving and loading nuclear warheads onto missile systems during a large-scale exercise, signaling readiness but not conducting a nuclear test. This demonstration maintained market expectations of no nuclear test by the end of June.
Russia launches unannounced large-scale nuclear exercises including Belarusian launch sites
June 30, 2026 dips to 0%1%
Russia conducted large-scale nuclear triad exercises involving land, sea, and air-based strategic forces, framed as preparation for nuclear force use if threatened. This military readiness display reinforced the market's view that Russia was signaling strength without conducting an actual nuclear test, further reducing the likelihood of a test by June 30, 2026.
Russia launches large-scale nuclear exercises including Belarusian sites
September 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%
Russia conducted its largest nuclear exercises in years, mobilizing thousands of troops and nuclear-capable systems, including delivery of nuclear warheads to Belarus. Despite the scale, no nuclear detonations occurred, reinforcing market views that Russia would not conduct a nuclear test soon.
Russia shows troops delivering nuclear warheads in major exercise
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%
Russian Defense Ministry released footage of troops moving and loading nuclear warheads onto missile launchers as part of a major nuclear exercise, demonstrating readiness but not conducting a nuclear test. This reinforced market expectations of no nuclear test by the deadline.
Russia launches largest nuclear exercises including Belarusian launch sites
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%
Russia began its largest nuclear exercises in years involving tens of thousands of troops, missile launchers, aircraft, and submarines, including rehearsals of nuclear warhead delivery and launch procedures. The exercises, coordinated with Belarus, demonstrated nuclear readiness but did not involve a nuclear test detonation, further reducing market expectations for a test.
Russia launches major nuclear exercise including warhead delivery to missile systems
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%
Russia conducted a large-scale nuclear exercise involving 64,000 personnel and rehearsed the delivery and launch procedures of nuclear warheads on mobile missile systems, including in Belarus. This demonstration of nuclear readiness amid ongoing conflict heightened market concerns but did not constitute a nuclear test, pushing prices lower.
Russia conducts major nuclear-capable military exercises including Belarusian sites
September 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%
In late May 2026, Russia launched unannounced nuclear-capable missile exercises involving troop movements of nuclear warheads and missile launches from Belarusian territory. These actions served as nuclear signaling but did not involve actual nuclear detonations, further lowering the market's perceived probability of a nuclear test.
ISW says Russia’s surprise May nuclear drills were a strategic pressure move
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
ISW analysis explained that the surprise May nuclear drills were intended to pressure NATO and distract from battlefield setbacks, reinforcing the view that the activities were political signaling rather than an actual test, further pushing odds lower.
Russia conducts major nuclear forces exercise with warhead delivery
September 30, 2026 dips to 5%2%
Russian forces conducted a major nuclear exercise involving delivery and transfer of nuclear warheads to missile launch systems, rehearsing launch procedures for tactical nuclear weapons. This was a significant nuclear signaling event but did not constitute a nuclear explosive test, contributing to market confidence that no test would occur by June 30, 2026.
Russia conducts major nuclear exercise including warhead delivery drills
December 31, 2026 jumps to 8%5%
Russia showcased troops delivering nuclear warheads to missile launch systems and rehearsed launch procedures in a large-scale nuclear exercise, signaling high combat readiness but not conducting a nuclear test. This demonstration of capability likely contributed to market uncertainty but did not increase nuclear test probability.
Russia conducts major nuclear warhead delivery exercise
December 31, 2026 rises to 8%1%
Russia showcased troops delivering nuclear warheads to missile launchers and rehearsed launch procedures in a large-scale nuclear exercise, demonstrating readiness but not conducting a nuclear test. This maintained market caution about an imminent nuclear test.
Russia conducts nuclear forces exercise including Belarusian launch sites
September 30, 2026 plunges to 5%46%
Russia launched a major nuclear exercise that included the use of Belarusian launch sites, demonstrating nuclear capabilities and signaling readiness for potential nuclear use.
Russia displays nuclear warhead delivery and transfer in major exercise
December 31, 2026 dips to 7%1%
Russia publicly showed footage of troops delivering and transferring nuclear warheads to missile launch systems during a major nuclear exercise, signaling readiness to use nuclear weapons. Despite this heightened signaling, no nuclear detonation test occurred, and market odds for a test continued to decline.
Russia launches unannounced large-scale nuclear forces exercise including Belarusian launch sites
December 31, 2026 dips to 7%1%
Russia conducted a sudden nuclear forces exercise rehearsing the use of nuclear weapons in response to hypothetical aggression, involving multiple strategic forces and signaling nuclear readiness without conducting a nuclear test. This reinforced market skepticism about an imminent nuclear test despite heightened nuclear signaling.
Russia conducts unannounced nuclear-capable missile exercises including Belarusian sites
Russia launched nuclear-capable missiles and issued nuclear munitions to units during unannounced exercises, signaling nuclear muscle-flexing but without an actual nuclear test detonation. This maintained market skepticism about a test occurring soon.
Russia launches massive nuclear drills involving thousands of troops and submarines
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%1%
A major three-day nuclear exercise was launched from May 19-21, 2026, involving over 65,000 troops, 200 missile launchers, 140 aircraft, and 13 submarines, raising global tensions.
Russia launches unannounced nuclear-capable exercises including Belarusian sites
December 31, 2026 dips to 7%1%
On May 20, Russia conducted major nuclear exercises involving the delivery and transfer of nuclear munitions to Russian and Belarusian units. These exercises showcased nuclear readiness and muscle-flexing amid tensions with NATO but did not involve a nuclear test detonation, contributing to continued market price declines.
Russia shows troops delivering nuclear warheads in major exercise
Russian Defense Ministry released footage showing troops delivering nuclear warheads to missile launch systems as part of ongoing nuclear exercises, signaling readiness but not conducting a nuclear test. This maintained market caution and low probability for a nuclear test by June 30.
Russia conducts major nuclear forces exercise including delivery of nuclear munitions
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
Russia launched nuclear-capable missiles and issued nuclear munitions to some units during a large-scale nuclear exercise amid heightened tensions with NATO. This demonstration of nuclear readiness increased market concerns but did not involve an actual nuclear test detonation, pushing prices lower.
Russia conducts largest nuclear exercises in years including Belarusian launch sites
September 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%
Russia launched its largest nuclear exercises in years, mobilizing nearly 65,000 troops and numerous nuclear-capable platforms, signaling nuclear readiness but not conducting a nuclear test detonation. This reinforced the market's view that a nuclear test was unlikely in the near term.
Russia launches unannounced nuclear exercise including Belarusian launch sites
September 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%
Russia conducted unannounced nuclear drills involving Belarusian launch sites, signaling nuclear muscle-flexing amid geopolitical tensions but no nuclear test detonation, reinforcing market price declines for a nuclear test.
Russia conducts large-scale unannounced nuclear exercises including Belarusian launch sites
September 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%
Russia launched its largest nuclear exercises in years involving tens of thousands of troops, missile launchers, aircraft, and submarines, rehearsing nuclear force preparation and use. Despite the scale and nuclear-capable systems involved, no nuclear detonation test occurred, maintaining low market probabilities for a nuclear test.
Russia launches unannounced nuclear exercise including Belarusian sites
Russia initiated unannounced nuclear-capable missile exercises involving Belarusian launch sites, signaling nuclear muscle-flexing amid diplomatic tensions. This action reinforced perceptions of nuclear readiness without an actual nuclear test, further lowering market expectations for a test.
Russia conducts large-scale nuclear forces exercise including warhead delivery
September 30, 2026 dips to 5%2%
Russia held major nuclear exercises involving delivery of nuclear warheads to missile launchers and mobilization of strategic forces. This demonstration of nuclear readiness increased tensions and market uncertainty but did not involve an actual nuclear test detonation, contributing to the decline in test probability prices.
Russia shows footage of troops delivering nuclear warheads in major exercise
December 31, 2026 rises to 8%2%
On May 20, Russia released footage showing troops moving nuclear warheads to missile launch systems as part of a major nuclear exercise involving tens of thousands of personnel and numerous missile launchers. This demonstration of nuclear readiness was a form of military signaling rather than an actual nuclear test, influencing market perceptions about the likelihood of a test later in the year.
Russia launches largest nuclear exercise in years including Belarusian launch sites
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%4%
Russia commenced a major nuclear exercise involving 64,000 troops, missile launchers, aircraft, and submarines, rehearsing nuclear warhead delivery and launch procedures but without conducting an actual nuclear test. This signaling amid ongoing conflict with the West further reduced market expectations of a nuclear test by the deadlines.
Russia Launches Major Nuclear Forces Exercise Involving Tactical Warheads
September 30, 2026 rises to 5%1%
Russia initiated large-scale exercises of its nuclear forces, demonstrating the delivery and loading of tactical nuclear warheads to mobile missile systems.
Russia conducts major nuclear forces exercise including nuclear warhead delivery
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%
Russia held a large-scale nuclear forces exercise involving the movement and delivery of nuclear warheads, including use of Belarusian launch sites. This military signaling increased tensions but did not involve an actual nuclear test detonation, contributing to market uncertainty and price declines.
Russia conducts unannounced nuclear exercise including Belarusian launch sites
September 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%
Russia launched an unannounced nuclear exercise involving Belarusian launch sites, signaling nuclear readiness and strategic messaging but no nuclear test detonation. This event reinforced market expectations that Russia was not conducting a nuclear test, maintaining low probabilities.
Russia releases footage of troops delivering nuclear warheads during major exercise
December 31, 2026 rises to 8%3%
Russian Defense Ministry released footage showing troops loading nuclear warheads onto missile launchers as part of ongoing nuclear exercises, emphasizing combat readiness for nuclear weapon use. This demonstration of nuclear force posture reinforced deterrence signals but did not constitute a nuclear test, contributing to market stability at lower test probability levels.
Russia shows troops moving nuclear warheads in major exercise
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%1%
Russian service members participated in a nuclear forces exercise at an unidentified location, demonstrating troop movements involving nuclear warheads, further signaling nuclear readiness.
Russia conducts major nuclear-capable forces exercise including Belarusian sites
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%
Russia launched a large-scale nuclear forces exercise involving delivery of nuclear warheads and missile launches from Belarusian territory, demonstrating nuclear readiness but without conducting an actual nuclear test. This maintained market skepticism about an imminent nuclear test, keeping prices low.
Russia conducts surprise nuclear exercises amid Ukraine conflict
Russian forces held unannounced nuclear exercises from May 19 to 21, showcasing nuclear readiness and attempting to influence NATO decision-making. While involving nuclear warheads, these exercises did not include a nuclear test detonation, maintaining downward pressure on market prices.
Russia launches largest nuclear exercises in years
September 30, 2026 plunges to 5%46%
Russia mobilized nearly 65,000 troops and strategic forces for its largest nuclear drills in years, announced without prior public notice, featuring practice launches of nuclear-capable missiles.
Russia begins massive nuclear forces maneuvers amid Ukraine conflict
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%
Russia launched large-scale nuclear drills involving ballistic and cruise missile practice launches, signaling heightened nuclear readiness but without conducting an actual nuclear test. This increased market wariness about nuclear escalation.
Russia launches largest nuclear exercises in years including Belarusian sites
Russia initiated its largest nuclear exercises in years, mobilizing tens of thousands of troops and numerous nuclear-capable systems, including integration with Belarusian forces. The unannounced drills were framed as preparation for nuclear force use in case of aggression, signaling nuclear readiness but not involving a nuclear test, which further lowered market expectations for a test.
Russian Defense Ministry announces nuclear drills rehearsal for threat scenarios
The Russian Defense Ministry framed the ongoing nuclear exercises as rehearsals for preparation and use of nuclear forces in case of aggression. This official framing emphasized readiness and deterrence without indicating any nuclear test, maintaining downward pressure on nuclear test probability markets.
Russia launches massive nuclear forces exercise amid heightened tensions
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%
Russia conducted a large-scale nuclear forces exercise from May 19-21 involving tens of thousands of troops, missiles, aircraft, and submarines. The drills focused on preparation and potential use of nuclear weapons but did not include any nuclear test, which contributed to the market lowering the probability of a nuclear test occurring.
Russia launches massive nuclear forces exercise amid heightened tensions
December 31, 2026 dips to 5%3%
Russia conducted a large-scale nuclear forces exercise from May 19-21 involving thousands of troops and numerous missile launches, demonstrating readiness but not conducting a nuclear test. This military drill heightened geopolitical tensions but did not fulfill the market's nuclear test criteria, contributing to further price declines.
Russia launches unannounced strategic nuclear exercises including Belarusian launch sites
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
Russia conducted sudden nuclear forces exercises from May 19-21, involving missile forces and Belarusian units, signaling nuclear readiness amid rising tensions but without conducting an actual nuclear test detonation. This unexpected drill caused market uncertainty and a further decline in the perceived likelihood of a nuclear test by mid-2026.
Russia launches largest nuclear exercises in years including Belarusian launch sites
December 31, 2026 rises to 8%2%
From May 19 to 21, Russia held a suddenly announced large-scale exercise of its strategic nuclear forces, rehearsing nuclear launch procedures in response to hypothetical external attacks. This nuclear signaling increased awareness but did not indicate a nuclear test, maintaining market caution.
Russia launches largest unannounced nuclear exercises including Belarusian sites
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%
Russia commenced large-scale nuclear force exercises involving 64,000 personnel, missile launchers, aircraft, ships, and submarines, rehearsing nuclear launch procedures. The unannounced nature and scale heightened geopolitical tensions but did not involve an actual nuclear test, leading to further market price declines.
Russian Ministry of Defense announces nuclear force exercises amid geopolitical tensions
September 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%
The Russian MoD announced exercises involving strategic missile forces and naval units to prepare for nuclear force use in response to aggression threats. This official confirmation of nuclear drills reinforced market expectations of no imminent nuclear test but ongoing nuclear readiness.
Russia launches surprise three‑day nuclear exercise with live missile launches
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
An unannounced large‑scale nuclear exercise involving 65,000 troops and live missile launches was launched. The drill was framed as a rehearsal, not a test, prompting the market to view the activity as signaling rather than a nuclear detonation, pushing odds still lower.
Russia Launches Unannounced Tactical Nuclear Exercises with Belarusian Forces
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%1%
Russia initiated unannounced exercises of its strategic and tactical nuclear forces to rehearse the delivery and transfer of nuclear munitions. The drills served as geopolitical signaling rather than indicating an imminent live nuclear test, keeping the market probabilities low.
Russia launches massive unannounced strategic nuclear exercises
December 31, 2026 drops to 4%8%
Russia initiated its largest nuclear drills in years, involving 65,000 troops, strategic submarines, and mobile launchers. The focus on simulated launches and tactical drills in Belarus further reinforced that Russia's nuclear posture was centered on military exercises rather than conducting an actual explosive nuclear test.
Russia launches largest nuclear exercise in years including Belarus
September 30, 2026 plunges to 8%43%
Russia announced its largest nuclear exercise in years on May 19, mobilizing nearly 65,000 troops and including Belarusian launch sites, which was unannounced and raised concerns about nuclear escalation posture.
Russia launches unannounced large-scale nuclear exercise including Belarusian launch sites
Russia conducted sudden large-scale exercises of its nuclear triad forces, rehearsing the use of nuclear weapons in response to hypothetical external threats. This nuclear signaling amid ongoing conflict heightened geopolitical tensions but did not involve an actual nuclear test, contributing to market uncertainty and a slight price fluctuation.
Russian Ministry of Defense announces nuclear force exercises amid geopolitical tensions
December 31, 2026 rises to 8%1%
On May 19, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced nuclear force exercises involving multiple military districts and fleets, emphasizing preparation and use of nuclear forces in response to aggression threats. The exercises were part of a broader strategy to influence NATO and demonstrate readiness without conducting a nuclear test, contributing to market price stability.
Russia Launches Large-Scale Strategic Nuclear Exercises
December 31, 2026 rises to 8%3%
Russia initiated its largest nuclear triad exercises in years, mobilizing tens of thousands of troops and strategic submarines. The drills focused on simulated responses and tactical deployments in Belarus, but did not involve any live nuclear detonations.
Russia launches unannounced strategic nuclear exercises including Belarusian launch sites
September 30, 2026 rises to 5%1%
From May 19 to 21, Russia conducted sudden strategic nuclear forces exercises involving Belarusian units, signaling nuclear readiness amid ongoing tensions. While not indicating an imminent nuclear test, these drills increased market awareness of Russia's nuclear posture, slightly affecting probabilities for tests later in the year.
Russia launches largest nuclear forces exercise in years including Belarusian sites
Starting May 19, 2026, Russia conducted a major unannounced nuclear forces exercise involving 64,000 troops, over 200 missile launchers, 140 aircraft, 73 surface vessels, and 13 submarines, including strategic nuclear missile carriers. The exercise was a nuclear signaling step amid ongoing conflict but did not involve a nuclear test detonation, contributing to market reassessment of nuclear test likelihood.
Russia launches massive three-day nuclear forces exercise involving missile launches and warhead deployments
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%
From May 19 to 21, Russia conducted large-scale nuclear drills involving over 64,000 personnel, missile launchers, aircraft, ships, and submarines, including rehearsing launch procedures for nuclear weapons. This demonstration of nuclear readiness amid heightened tensions influenced market prices downward, reflecting increased geopolitical risk but no actual nuclear test.
Russia conducts strategic nuclear forces exercise
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%1%
Russia held a sudden exercise of its strategic nuclear forces from May 19 to 21, rehearsing the launch of nuclear weapons in response to a hypothetical external attack, following its May 12 missile test.
Russia holds sudden strategic nuclear forces exercise amid Ukraine conflict
December 31, 2026 dips to 6%2%
From May 19 to 21, Russia conducted a sudden strategic nuclear forces exercise rehearsing nuclear launch in response to hypothetical attacks, following a May 12 missile test and a Ukrainian drone strike on Moscow. This signaling raised concerns but did not involve an actual nuclear test, influencing market sentiment downward.
Russia conducts sudden strategic nuclear forces exercise
September 30, 2026 rises to 5%1%
From May 19 to 21, Russia held a suddenly announced exercise of its strategic nuclear forces, rehearsing the launch of nuclear weapons in response to a hypothetical external attack. This nuclear signaling step amid the Ukraine conflict maintained market caution but did not indicate an actual nuclear test.
Russia launches largest nuclear forces exercise in years involving 64,000 troops
From May 19 to 21, Russia conducted a major unannounced nuclear forces exercise involving tens of thousands of troops, missile launchers, aircraft, ships, and submarines, including strategic nuclear missile carriers. This nuclear signaling step amid the Ukraine conflict raised tensions but did not involve an actual nuclear test detonation, leading to cautious market reactions and slight price increases for longer-dated outcomes.
Russia conducts major nuclear exercise including warhead delivery to troops
December 31, 2026 rises to 7%2%
Russia held a three-day nuclear forces exercise involving the delivery and transfer of nuclear warheads to Russian and Belarusian units. This nuclear signaling amid the Ukraine conflict heightened market awareness but did not indicate a nuclear test, leading to cautious price increases for longer-dated outcomes.
Russia launches large-scale nuclear forces exercise involving 64,000 troops
From May 19 to 21, Russia conducted a major unannounced nuclear forces exercise involving tens of thousands of troops, missile launchers, aircraft, ships, and submarines, including strategic nuclear missile carriers. This nuclear signaling step amid ongoing conflict increased market caution but did not involve a nuclear test detonation, leading to stable or slightly increased market prices for later test dates.
Russia announces large-scale nuclear exercises involving missile launches
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced nuclear force exercises from May 19 to 21 involving over 64,000 personnel, missile launchers, aircraft, ships, and submarines, rehearsing nuclear readiness and launch procedures but not conducting a nuclear test. This military signaling coincided with President Putin's visit to China, impacting market perceptions of nuclear risk.
Russia launches unannounced nuclear forces exercise including Belarusian launch sites
Russia conducted a large-scale nuclear forces exercise rehearsing the launch of nuclear weapons in response to hypothetical external threats. This military signaling increased geopolitical tensions but did not involve an actual nuclear test, maintaining low market probabilities for a nuclear detonation.
Russia Launches Massive Unannounced Nuclear Exercises
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%
Russia initiated a sudden, large-scale three-day exercise of its strategic nuclear forces, involving ground-launched missiles, submarines, and strategic bombers. The drills intensified global tensions but reinforced that Russia was focusing on signaling and readiness maneuvers rather than conducting an actual explosive nuclear test.
Russia launches large-scale nuclear exercises including Belarusian sites
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
Russia conducted sudden, large-scale nuclear exercises involving strategic nuclear forces and Belarusian units, rehearsing nuclear weapon launch procedures. This nuclear signaling amid the Ukraine conflict heightened international concern but did not involve an actual nuclear test, maintaining market expectations of no test by June 30, 2026.
Russia launches unannounced nuclear exercise including Belarusian launch sites
Russia conducted a large-scale nuclear forces exercise rehearsing nuclear weapon launch procedures in response to hypothetical threats. While signaling nuclear readiness, no nuclear detonations occurred, which maintained market skepticism about an imminent nuclear test.
Russia launches unannounced three-day nuclear exercises
Russia initiated a massive, unannounced strategic nuclear exercise involving land, sea, and air forces to rehearse the preparation and use of nuclear weapons. The drills signaled nuclear posturing rather than preparations for an actual explosive test, keeping the probability of a test low.
Russia conducts large-scale unannounced nuclear exercises including Belarusian launch sites
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%2%
From May 19 to 21, Russia held sudden nuclear exercises involving 64,000 troops, missile launchers, aircraft, surface vessels, and submarines, rehearsing nuclear force preparation and use. The drills included Belarusian forces and were framed as a response to external threats, reinforcing Russia's nuclear signaling amid the Ukraine conflict and increasing market caution about a nuclear test.
Russia launches major nuclear-capable military exercises including Belarusian launch sites
December 31, 2026 dips to 7%1%
Russia conducted large-scale nuclear exercises involving tens of thousands of troops, missile launchers, aircraft, and submarines, rehearsing nuclear weapon use procedures. Despite the scale and nuclear-capable forces involved, no nuclear test detonation occurred, reinforcing market expectations of no nuclear test.
Russia begins large-scale unannounced nuclear exercises including Belarusian sites
Russia launched a major three-day nuclear forces exercise involving tens of thousands of troops, missile launchers, aircraft, and submarines, including strategic nuclear missile carriers. The exercise was framed as preparation for nuclear force use in response to aggression but did not involve a nuclear test, reinforcing market expectations of no test by June 30.
Russia launches unannounced large-scale nuclear forces exercise including Belarusian launch sites
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
Russia conducted a sudden nuclear forces exercise rehearsing nuclear weapon launches in response to hypothetical external threats. This military signaling followed the Sarmat missile test and was interpreted as nuclear posturing rather than an actual nuclear test, contributing to market confidence that no nuclear test detonation occurred by June 30, 2026.
Russia launches unannounced strategic nuclear exercises
December 31, 2026 rises to 8%1%
Russia initiated a massive, unannounced three-day exercise of its strategic nuclear forces, including joint operations with Belarus. While demonstrating high combat readiness, the drills did not involve actual nuclear detonations, leading to a temporary rise in year-end odds due to signaling but keeping overall probabilities low.
Russia launches massive unannounced nuclear exercises
December 31, 2026 rises to 8%1%
Russia initiated its largest nuclear exercises in years, mobilizing 65,000 troops, strategic submarines, and aircraft to rehearse the preparation and use of nuclear forces. The drills reinforced the market's view that Russia was signaling strength without planning an actual explosive test.
Russia conducts major nuclear forces exercise including warhead delivery drills
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%
From May 19 to 21, Russia held a sudden large-scale exercise rehearsing nuclear warhead delivery and launch procedures, demonstrating readiness but not conducting a nuclear test. This heightened geopolitical tensions and reinforced market views that Russia was signaling rather than testing nuclear weapons.
Russia launches sudden large-scale nuclear forces exercise including Belarusian launch sites
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%1%
Russia conducted a major nuclear exercise rehearsing launch procedures for nuclear weapons, involving thousands of personnel and multiple missile systems. This was a strong nuclear signaling move amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine but did not involve an actual nuclear test, reinforcing market expectations against a nuclear detonation by June 30, 2026.
Russia conducts sudden large-scale nuclear forces exercise rehearsing nuclear weapon launches
From May 19 to 21, Russia held a sudden, large-scale exercise of its strategic nuclear forces, rehearsing nuclear weapon launch procedures in response to hypothetical external threats. This was interpreted as nuclear signaling amid the Ukraine conflict, increasing market caution but not involving an actual nuclear test detonation.
Russia holds major strategic nuclear forces exercise including warhead delivery
December 31, 2026 dips to 6%2%
From May 19 to 21, Russia conducted a large-scale nuclear forces exercise involving delivery and transfer of nuclear warheads to missile units, rehearsing launch procedures. This signaling showed readiness but did not involve a nuclear test, reinforcing market expectations of no test by the deadlines.
Russia Launches Unannounced Large-Scale Nuclear Exercises
The Russian Defense Ministry initiated unannounced, massive nuclear exercises involving strategic forces and tactical nuclear weapon rehearsals. While demonstrating high combat readiness, the drills focused on delivery and procedures rather than live nuclear detonations, further lowering test expectations.
Russia conducts large-scale strategic nuclear forces exercise
Russia held a sudden nuclear forces exercise rehearsing nuclear weapon launch procedures in response to hypothetical attacks, including conventional ones. This nuclear signaling increased concerns but did not involve an actual nuclear test, contributing to market uncertainty.
Russia begins large-scale strategic nuclear exercises including Belarusian sites
December 31, 2026 rises to 8%1%
Russia launched major nuclear force exercises involving tens of thousands of troops, missile launchers, aircraft, ships, and submarines, rehearsing nuclear weapon launch procedures. These drills served as nuclear signaling amid ongoing conflict but did not involve an actual nuclear test detonation, contributing to market perceptions of low likelihood of a test by mid-2026.
Russia announces nuclear forces exercise including drills in Belarus
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%3%
Russia announced exercises involving nuclear forces and joint drills with Belarus on May 19–21, practicing preparation and use of nuclear weapons. This heightened concerns but no nuclear test occurred, contributing to market price declines.
Russia launches massive nuclear exercises including warhead delivery drills
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%
Russia conducted large-scale nuclear exercises involving delivery and loading of nuclear warheads on missile systems, signaling readiness and deterrence posture without conducting an actual nuclear test. This likely contributed to further market decline in the probability of a nuclear test within the year.
Russia Launches Large-Scale Unannounced Strategic Nuclear Exercises
December 31, 2026 rises to 8%2%
Russia mobilized strategic nuclear forces, including missile launchers and submarines, for a sudden three-day exercise. The drills simulated responses to external aggression, reinforcing nuclear signaling without conducting actual explosive tests.
Russia begins largest nuclear forces exercises since Cold War
Russia launched a three-day military exercise involving over 64,000 troops and strategic nuclear forces, including ballistic and cruise missile launches. The drills focused on preparation and potential use of nuclear weapons but did not include any nuclear test detonations, reinforcing market expectations against an imminent test.
Russia Launches Massive Strategic Nuclear Exercises Involving Over 64,000 Troops
December 31, 2026 dips to 7%1%
The Russian Ministry of Defense initiated three-day large-scale military exercises involving strategic nuclear forces, practicing the preparation and use of nuclear weapons without conducting actual nuclear detonations. This confirmed that Russia's nuclear posturing remained limited to simulated drills and missile launches rather than live nuclear tests, causing the probability of a test by the end of 2026 to drop.
Russia launches largest nuclear exercise in years including Belarusian launch sites
From May 19 to 21, 2026, Russia conducted a large-scale, unannounced nuclear exercise involving 64,000 personnel, over 200 missile launchers, 140 aircraft, 73 surface ships, and 13 submarines, including strategic nuclear missile carriers. This demonstration of nuclear readiness increased market anticipation of a possible nuclear test by Russia.
Russia begins three-day strategic nuclear exercises with over 65,000 troops
September 30, 2026 plunges to 4%47%
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced large-scale military exercises focused on 'the preparation and use of nuclear forces in the event of a threat of aggression,' involving more than 65,000 soldiers and over 200 missile launchers.
Russia announces and begins largest nuclear exercise in years including Belarusian launch sites
December 31, 2026 dips to 5%3%
Russia launched a major unannounced nuclear exercise involving over 64,000 personnel, 200 missile launchers, and strategic nuclear submarines, rehearsing nuclear force use in response to aggression threats. This large-scale drill reinforced nuclear readiness signaling but did not involve an actual nuclear test, impacting market prices by maintaining nuclear threat awareness without test confirmation.
Russia launches massive nuclear exercises involving thousands of troops and nuclear-capable forces
December 31, 2026 dips to 7%1%
Russia began large-scale nuclear drills involving over 64,000 troops, missile launchers, aircraft, surface ships, and submarines, including rehearsals of nuclear weapon launch procedures. These exercises were nuclear signaling rather than actual nuclear tests, contributing to market skepticism about a nuclear test occurring soon.
Russia begins large-scale nuclear forces exercises with missile launches
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%1%
Russia commenced the announced nuclear forces exercises involving missile launches and readiness drills, including cooperation with Belarus. The exercises demonstrated capability but no nuclear test occurred, leading to further market price declines as the test probability diminished.
Russia begins large-scale nuclear forces exercises with missile launches
December 31, 2026 drops to 3%5%
Same event impacting the December 31, 2026 outcome, reinforcing the market's view that a nuclear test was unlikely imminently, pushing prices lower.
Russia Launches Massive Strategic Nuclear Forces Exercises
Russia initiated three-day military exercises involving over 64,000 troops and strategic nuclear forces, practicing the preparation and use of nuclear weapons in response to perceived threats.
Russia begins massive nuclear forces drills involving 64,000 troops
December 31, 2026 dips to 7%1%
Russia started a three-day exercise focusing on preparation and use of nuclear forces under threat of aggression, including practice launches of nuclear-capable ballistic and cruise missiles. This heightened nuclear signaling increased market attention but did not indicate a nuclear test.
Russia begins massive unannounced nuclear forces exercise including Belarusian launch sites
December 31, 2026 rises to 7%1%
From May 19 to 21, Russia held a sudden strategic nuclear forces exercise involving multiple branches and Belarusian territory, signaling nuclear readiness amid rising tensions. This unexpected drill raised concerns but was interpreted as posturing rather than a precursor to a nuclear test, causing moderate market fluctuations.
Russia launches large-scale nuclear forces exercise including missile launches
September 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%
From May 19 to 21, Russia conducted extensive military exercises focused on preparation and use of nuclear forces, including ballistic and cruise missile launches. Despite the scale and nuclear focus, no nuclear test detonation was reported, which likely contributed to market skepticism about an imminent nuclear test.
Russia deploys over 64,000 troops in strategic nuclear exercises
December 31, 2026 drops to 6%5%
The Russian Ministry of Defense reported the start of large-scale exercises involving strategic nuclear forces from May 19 to 21, including missile launches and joint drills with Belarus. This heightened market uncertainty about a nuclear test but no test was conducted.
Russia announces nuclear forces exercise including Belarus-based nuclear weapons drills
December 31, 2026 plunges to 11%39%
Russia's Ministry of Defence stated the exercises would include joint preparation and use of nuclear weapons deployed in Belarus, signaling increased nuclear readiness but no test. This contributed to market volatility and price declines.
Belarus announces parallel nuclear exercise with Russia
The Belarusian Defense Ministry announced its own nuclear exercise on May 18, coordinating with Russian forces to practice the delivery and preparation of nuclear munitions from unprepared positions.
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists outlines Russia’s nuclear modernization and recent ICBM test
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists published a detailed overview of Russia’s nuclear arsenal and noted the recent Sarmat test, emphasizing that no nuclear explosion had been reported. The technical focus helped traders downgrade the chance of a test.
Belarus announces nuclear exercise coordinated with Russian forces
On May 18, the Belarusian Defense Ministry announced a nuclear exercise involving delivery and preparation of nuclear munitions from unprepared positions, coordinated with Russian forces. This expanded nuclear signaling heightened concerns but did not involve a nuclear test, reinforcing market expectations of no test by June 30.
Belarus announces nuclear exercise coordinated with Russian forces
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%2%
Belarusian Defense Ministry announced a nuclear exercise involving delivery and preparation of nuclear munitions from unprepared positions, coordinated with Russian forces. This expanded nuclear signaling heightened concerns but did not involve a nuclear test, reinforcing market expectations of no test by June 30, 2026.
Belarus announces nuclear exercise coordinated with Russian forces
December 31, 2026 dips to 6%2%
Belarusian Defense Ministry announced a nuclear exercise practicing delivery and preparation of nuclear munitions from unprepared positions, coordinated with Russian forces. This heightened nuclear signaling but did not constitute a nuclear test, contributing to market caution and low test probability.
Russia launches largest nuclear exercises in years including Belarusian launch sites
December 31, 2026 dips to 5%3%
Russia began a large-scale, unannounced nuclear exercise involving 65,000 troops, missile launchers, aircraft, and submarines, including strategic nuclear forces. Belarus participated with coordinated nuclear munitions drills. These exercises were seen as nuclear signaling and readiness tests, not actual nuclear detonations, further reducing market expectations of a nuclear test.
Ukraine launches massive drone attack on Moscow, hitting oil refinery
Ukraine conducted a large-scale drone strike on Moscow and surrounding areas, including an oil refinery, marking one of the largest attacks on the Russian capital. This heightened tensions but did not lead to a Russian nuclear test, contributing to market skepticism about an imminent test.
Ukrainian drone strike hits Moscow, killing three and injuring a dozen
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%
Ukraine conducted a large-scale drone attack on Moscow and surrounding areas, killing at least three people and injuring many, demonstrating Kyiv's increasing ability to strike deep into Russian territory. This event heightened tensions but did not involve a Russian nuclear test.
Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow escalates tensions, Russia signals nuclear readiness
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%1%
On May 17, hundreds of Ukrainian drones penetrated Moscow's air defenses and conducted a major strike. Russia reacted by announcing a nuclear test and conducting a sudden nuclear forces exercise shortly thereafter, signaling nuclear readiness but not conducting a nuclear detonation. This sequence heightened geopolitical tensions but did not increase the likelihood of an actual nuclear test.
Putin announces deployment of RS-28 Sarmat nuclear-capable missile by year-end
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%
President Putin declared that the RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, dubbed Satan II, will enter combat service by the end of 2026. This announcement followed a successful missile test but did not involve a nuclear detonation, contributing to market skepticism about an imminent nuclear test.
Putin announces deployment of nuclear-capable RS-28 Sarmat missile by year-end
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%
Russian President Vladimir Putin declared plans to deploy the RS-28 Sarmat ICBM, a nuclear-capable missile, by the end of 2026. This announcement indicated nuclear capability expansion but did not involve a nuclear test, leading to market price declines as no test occurred.
Bulletin: Russia’s nuclear modernization hampered – no test confirmed in 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists published a detailed assessment noting that Russia’s nuclear modernization program faces “significant challenges and delays” and that no nuclear test had been confirmed in 2026. The analysis reinforced market sentiment that a test was unlikely, contributing to the continued drop in odds.
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists reports on Russia's nuclear weapons modernization progress
September 30, 2026 dips to 9%1%
The report highlighted Russia's ongoing nuclear modernization, including delays and the current stockpile size, but noted no evidence of new nuclear test detonations. This reinforced market views that Russia was enhancing capabilities without conducting nuclear tests.
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists reports delays in Russia’s nuclear modernization
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%1%
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists published a detailed assessment noting significant challenges and delays in Russia’s nuclear modernization program and no confirmed nuclear test in 2026. This analysis supported market sentiment that a nuclear test was unlikely, contributing to the decline in odds.
Report confirms Russia's use of nuclear-capable cruise missiles in Ukraine
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%1%
Images confirmed Russia's use of nuclear-capable 9M729 ground-launched cruise missiles in Ukraine, but these were conventional strikes without nuclear detonations. This reinforced Russia's nuclear capability rhetoric but did not indicate a nuclear test, keeping market probabilities low.
Russia announces successful test launch of new Sarmat ICBM
Russia publicly announced and showed video of a successful test launch of the new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile. Because the launch was a test of a delivery system rather than an actual nuclear detonation, the market viewed it as reducing the immediate likelihood of a nuclear test, pushing the June‑30 outcome lower.
Putin emphasizes nuclear modernization amid Ukraine conflict, highlights Sarmat missile readiness
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%1%
Following the Sarmat missile test, Putin reiterated Russia's nuclear modernization efforts and nuclear deterrence posture amid the Ukraine war, signaling strength without conducting a nuclear test. This maintained market uncertainty but did not increase the probability of a nuclear test.
Putin hails Russia's test launch of powerful nuclear-capable missile
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%41%
President Putin publicly praised the Sarmat missile test as a major step in Russia's nuclear modernization, emphasizing its strategic deterrence role. This reinforced the interpretation that Russia was focusing on missile development rather than conducting nuclear detonations, further lowering market expectations for a nuclear test.
Russia announces missile tests at Kura range with nuclear capability
Russia announced missile tests at the Kura range, where rockets capable of carrying nuclear warheads were test-fired, reinforcing Russia's nuclear readiness but not involving a nuclear detonation. This maintained market caution but did not increase the likelihood of a nuclear test event.
Russia Conducts Successful Test Launch of Sarmat Intercontinental Ballistic Missile
Russia successfully test-fired its new Sarmat strategic nuclear missile, which President Putin claimed would enter combat service by the end of the year. This demonstration of strategic capability temporarily stabilized the market's perception of Russia's nuclear posture.
Putin claims successful test of world's most powerful nuclear missile
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a successful test launch of the Sarmat ICBM, calling it the most powerful missile in the world, which modernizes Russia's nuclear triad and follows the expiration of the New START treaty.
Russia successfully tests nuclear-capable Sarmat ICBM
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%
Russia announced a successful test of the nuclear-capable Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, planned for deployment later in 2026. This demonstration of nuclear delivery capability reinforced Russia's nuclear posture but did not constitute a nuclear explosive test, contributing to market declines in nuclear test probability.
Russia's nuclear forces modernization continues without nuclear test
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%3%
Despite the missile test and announcements of new nuclear-capable weapons, no nuclear detonation occurred. This absence of a nuclear test amid heightened military activity led the market to further reduce the likelihood of a nuclear test by the resolution dates.
Russia tests long-range missile after US nuclear treaty expires
September 30, 2026 plunges to 5%46%
Following the expiration of the US-Russia nuclear treaty in February 2026, Russia tested a new long-range missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads. This increased geopolitical tensions but did not involve a nuclear detonation, contributing to the market's decline in nuclear test probability.
Russia claims successful test of nuclear‑capable Sarmat ICBM on May 12
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%2%
Russia reported a successful test of the new Sarmat ICBM, describing it as nuclear‑capable. While the test was a launch of a missile, no nuclear explosion was claimed, leading the market to further downgrade the probability of an actual nuclear test.
Russia successfully tests Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
Russia conducted a test launch of the Sarmat ICBM, touted by President Putin as the world's most powerful missile, capable of carrying multiple nuclear warheads. This test was a conventional missile launch without a nuclear detonation, signaling modernization of Russia's nuclear forces but not an actual nuclear test, which contributed to a sharp drop in market prices for a nuclear test by June 30, 2026.
Russia test-launches new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
Russia successfully test-fired the nuclear-armed Sarmat ICBM, part of its nuclear forces modernization. This was a delivery system test, not a nuclear detonation, which the market interpreted as reducing the immediate likelihood of a nuclear test, causing a price drop for the June 30 outcome.
Putin hails Russia's Sarmat nuclear missile test launch
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%50%
Russia successfully test-fired its new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, which President Putin described as 'the most powerful missile in the world' and claimed would enter combat service by the end of 2026. This major nuclear weapons development announcement significantly impacted market sentiment.
Russia test-launches new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile
Russia successfully test-fired the new Sarmat ICBM, hailed by President Putin as the world's most powerful missile, as part of nuclear forces modernization. This event demonstrated Russia's advancing nuclear delivery capabilities but was not a nuclear detonation, influencing market perceptions by showing capability without testing.
Putin announces deployment plans for Sarmat missile later in 2026
Following the successful test launch, Putin stated that Russia will deploy the Sarmat missile by the end of 2026, reinforcing Russia's strategic nuclear capabilities without conducting a nuclear test. This announcement contributed to the market's reassessment of nuclear test probabilities.
Putin announces successful test launch of new Sarmat ICBM
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
President Vladimir Putin announced a successful test launch of Russia's new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, describing it as the most powerful in the world, which increased nuclear modernization signals and market uncertainty.
Russia's missile test does not meet nuclear test criteria, market adjusts probabilities down
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
The test of the Sarmat missile was a conventional launch without a nuclear chain reaction, so it did not fulfill the market's definition of a nuclear test. This clarification led to a sharp decline in the market's assessed probability of a nuclear test by Russia within the year.
Russia successfully tests Sarmat nuclear-capable ICBM, Putin vows deployment by year-end
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%
Russia test-fired the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, touted by Putin as the world's most powerful nuclear missile, with deployment planned by the end of 2026. This demonstration of nuclear capability reinforced Russia's modernization efforts but was not a nuclear test, influencing market expectations downward for an actual test.
Putin hails successful test launch of new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%1%
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a successful test launch of the nuclear-armed Sarmat ICBM, emphasizing Russia's nuclear modernization but without conducting a nuclear detonation. This demonstration of missile capability was interpreted as a signal of strength rather than a nuclear test, maintaining downward pressure on nuclear test probabilities.
Putin hails test‑launch of new Sarmat nuclear‑capable ICBM
December 31, 2026 drops to 4%8%
Russia announced and televised a successful test‑launch of the new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, which is nuclear‑armed. Traders briefly saw this as evidence that a nuclear test might have occurred, lifting the “Yes” price to double‑digit levels before the market corrected for the fact that the launch was a missile test, not a nuclear detonation.
Russia test-fires new Sarmat strategic nuclear missile
September 30, 2026 drops to 5%5%
Russia successfully test-fired the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, described by President Putin as the most powerful missile in the world. This was a missile test without a nuclear detonation, thus not qualifying as a nuclear test under the market's criteria, reinforcing the market's view that no nuclear test occurred.
Russia successfully test-fires Sarmat strategic nuclear missile
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
Russia successfully test-launched its new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile. Because the launch was a test of a delivery system rather than an actual nuclear detonation, the market viewed it as reducing the immediate likelihood of an explosive nuclear test.
Russia test-fires new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%
On May 12, Russia successfully test-launched its new Sarmat ICBM, dubbed Satan II, which President Putin called the most powerful missile in the world. This test demonstrated Russia's nuclear delivery modernization but was not a nuclear detonation, leading markets to lower the probability of a nuclear test by the end of 2026.
Russia test-launches new nuclear-capable Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%
Russia conducted a test launch of its new Sarmat ICBM, hailed by President Putin as the world's most powerful missile, but the test did not involve a nuclear detonation. This event reassured markets that while Russia is modernizing its nuclear forces, it had not conducted a nuclear test, contributing to the decline in nuclear test probability prices.
Russia successfully test launches new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile
June 30, 2026 plunges to 3%47%
Russia test-fired its new Sarmat ICBM, hailed by President Putin as the world's most powerful missile, signaling modernization of its nuclear forces but not an actual nuclear detonation. This event reinforced expectations of missile development rather than nuclear testing, contributing to a drop in market prices for a nuclear test by June 30, 2026.
Russia Successfully Tests Sarmat ICBM, Plans Deployment by End of Year
Russia successfully test-fired its new RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile. President Putin confirmed the delivery system would enter service by the end of 2026, but no actual nuclear explosive test was conducted.
Putin announces successful Sarmat ICBM test launch
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
Russia's new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, dubbed 'Satan II' by NATO, was successfully test-launched. President Putin stated it would enter combat service by the end of 2026, significantly impacting nuclear capabilities and market sentiment.
Russia tests new Sarmat heavy intercontinental ballistic missile
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%2%
Russia successfully tested the Sarmat ICBM, touted by President Putin as the world's most powerful nuclear-capable missile, signaling nuclear capability modernization but not a nuclear detonation test. This event initially raised market expectations for a possible nuclear test later in the year.
Russia successfully tests new Sarmat nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
Russia conducted a test launch of the Sarmat ICBM, touted by President Putin as the world's most powerful missile, expected to enter combat service by the end of 2026. This demonstration of nuclear capability was seen as a strategic signal rather than an actual nuclear test, contributing to a sharp drop in market prices for a nuclear test by June 30, 2026.
Russia tests new heavy nuclear-capable Sarmat ICBM, Putin calls it world's most powerful
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%
Russia successfully conducted a test launch of the Sarmat heavy intercontinental ballistic missile, touted by President Putin as the most powerful missile globally. This demonstration of advanced nuclear capability reduced market expectations of an imminent nuclear test, as Russia showcased its modernization without detonating a nuclear device.
Russia conducts successful test launch of Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile
June 30, 2026 surges to 39%37%
Russia successfully test-fired its new Sarmat ICBM from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome, demonstrating strategic modernization but not an actual nuclear detonation, which temporarily spiked and then stabilized the market.
Russia successfully tests Sarmat nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
Russia conducted a successful test launch of the Sarmat ICBM, which President Putin hailed as the world's most powerful nuclear missile, to be deployed by year-end. This demonstration of nuclear capability was a significant military event but did not constitute a nuclear test detonation, leading to market reassessment and price declines.
Russia successfully tests Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile
December 31, 2026 rises to 15%2%
Russia announced a successful test launch of the Sarmat ICBM, touted by President Putin as the world's most powerful nuclear missile. This demonstration of strategic nuclear capability temporarily increased market perceptions of a possible nuclear test by year-end.
Russia successfully test-fires Sarmat strategic nuclear missile
December 31, 2026 rises to 8%2%
Russia conducted a successful test launch of its new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, which President Vladimir Putin announced would enter combat service by the end of the year. This demonstration of strategic capability caused a temporary rise in the December 31, 2026 contract as traders weighed heightened nuclear posturing.
Putin announces Sarmat missile deployment by year-end
President Putin stated that Russia will deploy the new Sarmat strategic nuclear missile by the end of 2026, emphasizing modernization without conducting a nuclear test. This announcement reinforced expectations of capability upgrades rather than nuclear detonations, impacting market prices downward.
Russia successfully tests new RS-28 Sarmat nuclear-capable ICBM
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%1%
Russia conducted a successful test launch of the RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, touted as the world's most powerful nuclear missile system, signaling ongoing nuclear modernization but not a nuclear test detonation. This event increased market attention on Russia's nuclear capabilities but did not confirm a nuclear test, contributing to price declines.
Russia successfully tests new nuclear-capable Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%
On May 12, 2026, Russia test-fired the Sarmat ICBM, a nuclear-capable missile described by President Putin as the world's most powerful. This test was part of Russia's nuclear forces modernization but did not involve a nuclear detonation, leading markets to lower the probability of a nuclear test occurring by the end of 2026.
Russia successfully test-launches new nuclear-capable Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%41%
Russia conducted a test launch of the Sarmat ICBM, hailed by President Putin as the world's most powerful missile, intended to enter combat service by the end of 2026. However, this was a missile launch test without a nuclear detonation, which did not meet the market's criteria for a nuclear test, contributing to a sharp decline in the perceived probability of a nuclear test by Russia.
Russia successfully tests Sarmat nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
Russia conducted a test launch of the Sarmat ICBM, touted by President Putin as the world's most powerful missile capable of carrying multiple nuclear warheads. This demonstration of nuclear-capable missile technology increased market attention but did not constitute a nuclear test detonation, leading to a sharp drop in the market's probability for an actual nuclear test by June 30, 2026.
Putin announces deployment of new Sarmat nuclear missile by end of 2026
President Putin stated Russia will deploy the Sarmat strategic nuclear missile by the end of 2026, signaling modernization without conducting a nuclear test explosion, which contributed to market price declines for a nuclear test event.
CNN reveals Russia transported nuclear reactor components to North Korea on sunken ship
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%
An investigation uncovered that Russia was shipping nuclear reactor parts to North Korea, potentially expanding Pyongyang's nuclear capabilities. This raised international concerns about nuclear proliferation but did not indicate Russia conducting a nuclear test itself, influencing market doubts about imminent Russian nuclear testing.
CNN investigation reveals Russian ship likely carrying nuclear submarine reactor components sank
A Russian cargo ship sank in 2024 carrying components for nuclear submarine reactors, raising concerns about nuclear technology transfers but no evidence of nuclear explosive testing by Russia in 2026.
Putin hails Russia's test launch of new ballistic missile
September 30, 2026 rises to 9%1%
President Putin publicly praised the Sarmat missile test as a key step in modernizing Russia's nuclear forces, signaling continued nuclear capability development but not an actual nuclear detonation, which contributed to market uncertainty.
Russia tests new nuclear-capable Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile
December 31, 2026 dips to 6%2%
Russia successfully test-fired the new Sarmat ICBM, which President Putin hailed as the world's most powerful nuclear missile, to be deployed by year-end. This demonstration of nuclear delivery capability reinforced deterrence but did not involve a nuclear detonation, leading to a slight decline in market prices.
Russia Test-Fires Sarmat Strategic ICBM Following Treaty Expiration
Russia successfully test-launched its new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile. While the launch demonstrated strategic capabilities, it was a delivery vehicle test rather than an actual nuclear explosive test, solidifying the low probability of a nuclear test.
Russia successfully test launches new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%2%
Russia announced a successful test launch of the Sarmat ICBM, a key part of its nuclear arsenal modernization. This demonstration of strategic nuclear capability temporarily increased market expectations for a nuclear test by year-end, reflecting heightened nuclear posture but did not indicate an actual nuclear test detonation.
Russia successfully tests new Sarmat strategic nuclear missile
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%
Russia conducted a successful test launch of its new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, which President Putin described as the world's most powerful. This demonstration of advanced nuclear capability increased nuclear signaling but did not constitute a nuclear test as defined by the market, leading to a temporary rise in market speculation about a possible test later in the year.
Russia successfully test-launches Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile
Russia announced a successful test launch of the Sarmat ICBM, touted by President Putin as the world's most powerful nuclear-capable missile, signaling modernization of its nuclear forces but not constituting a nuclear test. This event increased awareness of Russia's nuclear capabilities but did not fulfill the market's nuclear test criteria, contributing to a price decline.
Russia successfully test-fires new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile
Russia conducted a successful test launch of its new Sarmat strategic nuclear-capable missile, which President Vladimir Putin hailed as the most powerful in the world. While the test demonstrated Russia's nuclear modernization efforts, it was a missile delivery system test rather than a nuclear detonation, keeping the probability of an actual nuclear test low.
Putin says Sarmat ICBM test‑launch was successful, no nuclear detonation
September 30, 2026 dips to 5%4%
Putin announced a successful test‑launch of the new RS‑28 Sarmat ICBM but clarified it was a flight test, not a nuclear detonation. The clarification that the launch was a missile‑system test – not a nuclear explosion – further reduced the perceived probability of an actual nuclear test, reinforcing the market’s downward swing.
Russia successfully tests new Sarmat nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%41%
Russia test-fired the Sarmat ICBM, which is nuclear-capable but the test was a missile launch, not a nuclear detonation. President Putin announced the missile would enter combat service by the end of 2026. This event reassured markets that Russia was modernizing its nuclear forces without conducting a nuclear test, leading to a sharp drop in nuclear test probability.
Russia announces successful test launch of Sarmat ICBM
Russia publicly demonstrated the successful test launch of its new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, touted as the world's most powerful nuclear missile. This event signaled ongoing nuclear modernization but did not involve a nuclear test detonation, leading to moderate price declines in the market.
Russia announces successful test launch of Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile
December 31, 2026 rises to 8%2%
On May 12, Russia publicly confirmed the successful test launch of its new Sarmat ICBM, demonstrating advanced nuclear capability and fueling market speculation about a possible nuclear test later in 2026. This event caused a notable price increase in the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Putin announces Sarmat missile to enter combat duty by end of 2026
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
Following the Sarmat test launch, Putin declared the missile would enter combat service by year-end, emphasizing modernization over testing nuclear devices. This official statement further reduced market expectations of a nuclear test occurring soon.
Russia test-launches new Sarmat ICBM, calls it world's most powerful missile
Russia successfully test-launched its new nuclear-capable Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, which President Putin described as the most powerful missile in the world. This modernization effort of Russia's nuclear triad occurred amid the expiration of the New START treaty, reducing formal nuclear constraints between Russia and the U.S.
Russia test-fires Sarmat strategic nuclear intercontinental ballistic missile
June 30, 2026 plunges to 1%36%
Russia successfully test-fired its new Sarmat ICBM, which President Vladimir Putin announced would enter combat service by the end of the year. Because the launch was a test of a delivery system rather than an actual nuclear detonation, the market viewed it as reducing the immediate likelihood of a nuclear test, pushing the June 30 outcome lower.
Russia successfully test-fires new Sarmat nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
On May 12, 2026, Russia conducted a test launch of the Sarmat ICBM, hailed by President Putin as the world's most powerful missile, with plans to deploy it by the end of the year. This event was a missile test, not a nuclear detonation, which led the market to lower the probability of a nuclear test occurring within the year.
Putin announces deployment of new Sarmat nuclear missile by end of 2026
September 30, 2026 dips to 9%1%
President Putin stated that the Sarmat strategic nuclear missile, successfully tested on May 12, 2026, will be deployed by the end of the year. This announcement reinforced the focus on missile deployment rather than an immediate nuclear test, contributing to the market's decline in nuclear test probability.
Putin announces successful Sarmat ICBM test launch
December 31, 2026 plunges to 8%42%
President Vladimir Putin announced the successful test launch of Russia's new Sarmat strategic nuclear missile, describing it as 'the most powerful in the world' and stating it would enter combat service by year's end.
Putin hails Russia's test launch of new ballistic missile amid Ukraine conflict
The test launch of the Sarmat missile was publicly hailed by Putin as part of Russia's nuclear modernization efforts, but it was a missile test without a nuclear detonation. This event, occurring during ongoing conflict in Ukraine, did not indicate a nuclear test, influencing the market to reduce the likelihood of a nuclear test event.
Putin announces successful test of RS-28 Sarmat ICBM
December 31, 2026 dips to 5%3%
On May 12, 2026, President Vladimir Putin claimed that Russian forces successfully tested the RS-28 Sarmat super-heavy intercontinental ballistic missile, highlighting Russia's nuclear-capable weapons development. This demonstration of military strength involved missile testing but did not involve a nuclear detonation, leading to a drop in market prices for a nuclear test by year-end.
Russia test-fires Sarmat nuclear-capable ICBM
December 31, 2026 plunges to 7%43%
Russia successfully test-launched its new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, a nuclear-capable ICBM, as part of modernization efforts. The test was announced by President Putin and confirmed by the Russian Defense Ministry.
Putin announces Russia's Sarmat missile test as part of nuclear forces modernization
September 30, 2026 drops to 4%6%
President Putin publicly hailed the successful test launch of the Sarmat missile, emphasizing ongoing modernization of Russia's nuclear triad without conducting a nuclear test. This reinforced market views that no nuclear test had occurred, pushing down the likelihood prices further.
Investigation reveals Russian ship likely carried nuclear submarine reactor components
December 31, 2026 rises to 7%1%
A CNN investigation published on May 12, 2026, found that the Russian cargo ship Ursa Major, which sank in December 2024, was likely carrying components for submarine-type nuclear reactors. This raised concerns about Russia's nuclear technology transfers but did not indicate any nuclear test, thus not increasing market probabilities for a test by year-end.
Russia Successfully Tests Sarmat Strategic Nuclear Missile
Russia conducted a successful test-launch of its RS-28 Sarmat ICBM, which President Putin announced would enter combat service by the end of the year.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian oil and chemical plants amid ongoing conflict
September 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%
Ukrainian military attacks damaged key Russian oil refineries and chemical plants, escalating conflict tensions but not involving nuclear tests. These strikes underscored ongoing hostilities but did not increase likelihood of a Russian nuclear test, influencing market prices downward.
Russian officials tighten security measures amid ongoing tensions
Russia's Federal Protective Service banned officials from wearing watches in meetings with Putin, reflecting heightened security concerns but no indication of nuclear testing.
Putin announces deployment of RS-28 Sarmat nuclear missile by year-end
President Putin declared that Russia will deploy the RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, capable of carrying multiple nuclear warheads, by the end of 2026. This announcement underscored Russia's nuclear modernization efforts but did not indicate an immediate nuclear test, maintaining market caution.
Russia announces nuclear-capable rocket tests at Kuray test site ahead of May Day parade
September 30, 2026 plunges to 5%45%
Kiev24 reported that Russia announced nuclear-capable rocket tests at the Kuray test site from May 6-10, 2026, ahead of the May Day parade, confirming the nuclear-capable rocket tests.
Putin Announces Deployment of Nuclear-Capable Sarmat ICBM
December 31, 2026 plunges to 10%40%
Vladimir Putin announced Russia's intention to deploy its nuclear-capable RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) — dubbed Satan II — by the end of the year. This announcement, timed after a muted Victory Day Parade, reduced the probability of a nuclear test by December 31, 2026.
Putin announces deployment of new RS-28 Sarmat nuclear missile by year-end
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%41%
Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that the RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, capable of carrying multiple nuclear warheads, would enter combat service by the end of 2026. This announcement raised market concerns about potential nuclear activity, causing a sharp drop in the market's 'Yes' probability.
Putin announces deployment of new nuclear-capable RS-28 Sarmat missile by year-end
December 31, 2026 plunges to 11%39%
President Putin declared the RS-28 Sarmat ICBM, capable of carrying multiple nuclear warheads, will enter combat service by the end of 2026. This announcement underscored Russia's nuclear modernization but did not indicate an imminent nuclear test, influencing market sentiment downward.
Putin announces deployment of RS-28 Sarmat nuclear-capable missile by year-end
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%
President Putin declared the RS-28 Sarmat ICBM, capable of carrying multiple nuclear warheads, will enter combat service by the end of 2026. This announcement reinforced expectations of nuclear capability modernization but did not indicate an immediate nuclear test, contributing to market declines.
Russia Announces Nuclear Exercises Involving Strategic Nuclear Forces
September 30, 2026 plunges to 5%46%
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced three-day military exercises focused on 'the preparation and use of nuclear forces in the event of a threat of aggression,' which could be the largest in modern history. This announcement increased market skepticism about a nuclear test by September 30, 2026.
Russia announces nuclear-capable rocket tests ahead of May Day parade
December 31, 2026 plunges to 8%42%
Kamchatka's Emergency Ministry announced rocket tests with nuclear capability scheduled for May 6-10, 2026, ahead of the May Day parade, triggering market reaction.
Analysts note that the expiration of New START removes legal barrier to testing but political costs remain high
Commentary emphasizing that while the treaty’s end technically allows testing, the diplomatic fallout and lack of strategic need keep the probability low, cementing the market’s low price.
Russia uses nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile in massive strike on Ukraine
September 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%
Russia launched a massive missile and drone strike on Ukraine, including the use of the nuclear-capable Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile. While this demonstrated Russia’s willingness to deploy nuclear-capable weapons, no nuclear test was reported, and the strike was conventional in nature, influencing market perceptions downward for a nuclear test occurring soon.
Russia conducts nuclear-capable missile tests at Kura range ahead of Victory Day
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
Russia closed the Kura nuclear test range for missile tests capable of carrying nuclear payloads from May 6 to May 10, signaling preparations for major missile trials. This raised market attention on potential nuclear activity but did not confirm a nuclear detonation test.
Russia begins nuclear-capable missile tests at Kura range
Russia closed the Kura test range in Kamchatka for missile tests capable of carrying nuclear payloads from May 6 to May 10, signaling ongoing missile testing but not a nuclear detonation. This contributed to market uncertainty but did not confirm a nuclear test.
Russia announces missile tests at Kura range from May 6 to May 10
September 30, 2026 drops to 4%5%
Russia announced missile tests at the Kura test site involving rockets capable of carrying nuclear warheads. However, these were missile tests without nuclear detonations, which did not meet the market's nuclear test definition, contributing to continued decline in test probability.
Russia schedules nuclear-capable ICBM tests over Victory Day parade
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
Russia announced missile tests at the Kura range from May 6 to 10, a site used for nuclear-capable ICBM testing. This was interpreted as a nuclear signaling move timed to deter Ukrainian attacks during the Victory Day parade, increasing market uncertainty about nuclear activity but not indicating an actual nuclear test.
Russia Announces Nuclear-Capable Missile Tests at Kura Range
September 30, 2026 dips to 5%2%
Russia announced plans to test-fire nuclear-capable delivery systems at the Kura test site. These tests focused on delivery vehicles rather than actual explosive nuclear detonations, keeping the probability of a nuclear test low.
Russia announces missile tests at Kura range from May 6 to May 10
The Russian Ministry of Defense warned residents about missile tests at the Kura range in Kamchatka scheduled for May 6-10. This raised market attention on potential nuclear-capable missile activity but did not confirm a nuclear test, contributing to cautious market sentiment.
Russian Ministry of Defense announces missile tests at Kura range
December 31, 2026 dips to 6%1%
From May 6 to May 10, Russia conducted missile tests at the Kura range, signaling ongoing weapons testing activity. However, these tests were conventional missile launches without nuclear detonations, which likely maintained market doubts about a nuclear test.
Russia and Ukraine envoys meet in Abu Dhabi for US-brokered peace talks
Diplomatic talks between Russia and Ukraine, brokered by the U.S., aimed at ending the nearly four-year war, signaled ongoing efforts to avoid escalation including nuclear testing. The talks coincided with the expiration of the last nuclear arms treaty, reinforcing market expectations against a nuclear test by Russia in the near term.
Russia warns of missile tests at Kamchatka’s Kura range, May 6‑10
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%
Russia announced a series of missile tests at the Kura range (May 6‑10) – rockets capable of carrying nuclear warheads – but the Ministry made clear no nuclear devices were being detonated. The announcement reinforced market belief that the activities were conventional test flights, pushing Yes odds further down to single‑digit levels.
Russia Announces Nuclear-Capable Missile Tests Ahead of Victory Day Parade
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%3%
Russia announced missile tests at the Kura test site in Kamchatka involving systems capable of carrying nuclear warheads, signaling heightened military readiness.
U.S. Energy Secretary says any Trump‑ordered tests would be non‑nuclear
Clarification that any U.S. tests would not involve nuclear explosions reduced the perceived trigger for a Russian nuclear test, contributing to the final drop to 4%‑5%.
Russia announces large-scale nuclear forces exercises for May 19-21
December 31, 2026 drops to 7%5%
Same as above, affecting the December 31, 2026 outcome similarly, causing a price drop as the market discounted the likelihood of an imminent test.
Russia announces large-scale nuclear forces exercises for May 19-21
September 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
Russia's Ministry of Defense declared upcoming exercises focused on preparation and potential use of nuclear forces amid threat scenarios, including missile launches. This heightened market uncertainty about a possible nuclear test, initially supporting prices before a decline as no test occurred.
U.S. intelligence reports Russia modernizing nuclear weapons amid failed tests
The U.S. intelligence community's 2026 Annual Threat Assessment reported that Russia is modernizing its nuclear weapons capabilities despite multiple failed tests of new systems. This highlighted ongoing nuclear weapons development but no confirmed nuclear test, maintaining market skepticism about an imminent test.
US Congressional report confirms Russia's nuclear modernization challenges without new tests
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%2%
The April 22 Congressional Research Service report highlighted Russia's ongoing nuclear modernization difficulties and multiple failed tests of new systems, with no evidence of new nuclear detonations. This reinforced market expectations that Russia would not conduct a nuclear test soon, pressuring prices lower.
US intelligence reports Russia modernizing nuclear weapons amid failed tests
The 2026 US intelligence Annual Threat Assessment highlighted Russia's ongoing nuclear weapons modernization despite multiple failed tests of new systems. This underscored Russia's nuclear capabilities but did not confirm any nuclear test, contributing to market skepticism about a test occurring soon.
IAEA head warns US and Russia against nuclear testing to prevent global test spiral
Rafael Grossi, head of the IAEA, warned that any nuclear test by the US, Russia, or others could trigger a global nuclear test spiral. This statement contributed to market caution and low expectations for a Russian nuclear test by June 30, 2026.
IAEA head warns against nuclear testing by major powers
December 31, 2026 plunges to 11%39%
International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi warned that nuclear tests by the US, Russia, or others would trigger global proliferation, underscoring international pressure against nuclear detonations and supporting market declines in test probability.
IAEA head warns US and Russia against resuming nuclear tests
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
The International Atomic Energy Agency's director warned that if the US, Russia, or any other nation resumes nuclear testing, it could trigger a global spiral of nuclear tests, increasing international pressure against such actions. This reinforced market caution about the likelihood of a Russian nuclear test in 2026.
IAEA head warns US and Russia against resuming nuclear tests
September 30, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, warned that if the US or Russia resumed nuclear testing, it would trigger other nations to follow, reinforcing global norms against nuclear tests. This statement likely contributed to market skepticism about imminent Russian nuclear tests.
UN nuclear test ban chief warns US and Russia against resuming nuclear tests
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%
The head of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization warned that if the US or Russia resumed nuclear testing, it would trigger a dangerous spiral of nuclear proliferation. This statement underscored international pressure on Russia to maintain its test moratorium, contributing to declining market probabilities.
CTBTO Chief Warns of Global Fallout If US or Russia Resumes Nuclear Testing
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%2%
The head of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization warned that any nuclear test by a major power would trigger a chain reaction of testing by other nations, highlighting the strong international pressure to maintain the moratorium.
Russia’s nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles enter active service in Belarus
September 30, 2026 dips to 6%1%
Russia announced that its nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system had entered active service in Belarus, demonstrating enhanced nuclear delivery capabilities. This development raised concerns about nuclear escalation but did not indicate an actual nuclear test, contributing to market uncertainty and price adjustments.
CTBTO Chief Warns of Domino Effect If US or Russia Resumes Nuclear Testing
The head of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization warned that any nuclear test by major powers would trigger a global resumption of testing, reinforcing the strong international norm against physical detonations.
UN nuclear test ban treaty head warns US and Russia against nuclear tests
September 30, 2026 plunges to 8%43%
The head of the organization overseeing the treaty banning nuclear testing warned that if the US, Russia, or any other nation conducts a nuclear test, it would trigger other nations to follow, increasing global nuclear risks. This statement likely contributed to market skepticism about imminent Russian nuclear testing.
IAEA head warns US and Russia against resuming nuclear tests
The International Atomic Energy Agency Director General warned that if the US, Russia, or any other nation resumes nuclear testing, it would trigger a global cascade of tests. This statement underscored the international pressure against nuclear tests, likely contributing to market skepticism about Russia conducting a test soon.
Head of nuclear test ban treaty organization warns US and Russia against testing
The head of the organization overseeing the nuclear test ban treaty warned that if the US, Russia, or any other nation conducts a nuclear test, it would trigger other nations to follow, raising global tensions. This warning likely contributed to cautious market sentiment about imminent Russian nuclear tests.
UN nuclear test ban treaty head warns US and Russia against testing
The head of the organization overseeing the nuclear test ban treaty warned that if the US, Russia, or any other nation conducts a nuclear test, it would trigger others to follow, reinforcing the taboo against testing and likely suppressing market expectations for a Russian test.
IAEA head warns US and Russia against resuming nuclear tests
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
The International Atomic Energy Agency Director General warned that if the US, Russia, or others resume nuclear testing, it would trigger a chain reaction of tests by other nations, increasing global nuclear risks. This heightened awareness likely pressured the market to lower the probability of a Russian nuclear test.
CTBTO Chief Warns US and Russia That Resuming Nuclear Tests Could Trigger Global Escalation
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Robert Floyd, head of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization, warned that any resumption of nuclear testing by major powers would trigger a dangerous chain reaction among other nations.
IAEA chief warns a Russian nuclear test would spark a global testing spiral
December 31, 2026 drops to 7%5%
The IAEA chief warned that any nuclear test by Russia would trigger a cascade of follow‑on tests by other states, emphasising that the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty remains in force and that no official Russian test had been reported. The warning lowered market expectations that Russia would break the test moratorium, prompting a sharp decline in the “Yes” price for all three dates.
UN nuclear test ban treaty head warns US and Russia against testing
The head of the organization overseeing the nuclear test ban treaty warned that if the US, Russia, or any other nation conducts a nuclear test, it could trigger a global nuclear test spiral. This warning likely contributed to market caution and low prices for a Russian nuclear test by June 30, 2026.
Russia schedules nuclear‑capable ICBM tests at Kamchatka’s Kura range for early May
June 30, 2026 drops to 2%10%
The Russian Defense Ministry announced that missile tests at the Kura test range in Kamchatka would take place from May 6‑10, framing them as a nuclear‑capable signalling move around Victory Day. The news sparked a sharp drop in market odds as traders interpreted the announcement as a scheduled, non‑explosive test rather than an actual nuclear detonation.
Russian forces attack substations critical to nuclear safety in Ukraine
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
Russian military strikes targeted Ukrainian substations vital for nuclear safety, raising concerns about nuclear risks but not constituting a nuclear test. This heightened tensions but did not increase the likelihood of a Russian nuclear test, contributing to market price declines.
Russia reiterates readiness to keep New START limits for another year
Putin’s reaffirmation that Russia would honor the treaty’s caps for an additional year if the U.S. does so removed a key catalyst for a test, pushing prices toward single‑digit levels.
Shmyhal reports 155 attacks on Ukrainian nuclear safety substations
Ukrainian Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal reported that Russian forces had attacked substations critical to nuclear safety 155 times since the war began, significantly increasing nuclear safety concerns.
Russia attacks substations critical to nuclear safety 155 times, raising nuclear risk concerns
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
Russian forces have repeatedly targeted Ukrainian substations vital for nuclear safety, increasing risks of emergency shutdowns and destabilizing nuclear reactor operations. This sustained attack campaign heightened fears of nuclear incidents but did not indicate a nuclear test by Russia, contributing to market skepticism.
Congressional report highlights Russia's nuclear modernization and challenges
December 31, 2026 plunges to 11%39%
The April 22 Congressional Research Service report detailed Russia's ongoing nuclear modernization efforts and noted multiple failed tests of new systems, emphasizing challenges and delays. This reinforced market skepticism about an imminent nuclear test, contributing to the decline in test probability.
Russia’s deputy security council head Medvedev warns of “proportional” response to U.S. missile defenses
Medvedev’s warning that Russia would act proportionately if the U.S. pursues new missile defenses was interpreted as a diplomatic threat rather than an imminent test, further lowering market odds.
Congressional report details Russia's nuclear arsenal and modernization efforts
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
A Congressional Research Service report outlined Russia's large and modernizing nuclear arsenal, including new capabilities and deployments, but noted no nuclear tests. This reinforced the view that Russia was enhancing its arsenal without conducting tests, contributing to a decline in market prices for a nuclear test occurring by year-end.
Congressional Research Service Updates Report on Russia's Nuclear Weapons
An updated CRS report highlighted that while Russia continues to modernize its nuclear triad, the U.S. intelligence community assessed that Russia is highly unlikely to use nuclear weapons or conduct live nuclear tests unless facing an existential threat.
Concerns rise ahead of NPT review conference on nuclear disarmament
The upcoming Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) review conference starting April 27, 2026, raised concerns about unraveling nuclear arms control and modernization by nuclear states, including Russia. This increased market uncertainty about nuclear testing but did not indicate an imminent test.
Congressional report confirms Russian nuclear modernization challenges without new nuclear tests
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
A U.S. Congressional Research Service report highlighted Russia's ongoing nuclear modernization difficulties and multiple failed tests of new systems, with no evidence of new nuclear detonations. This reinforced market expectations of a continued test moratorium, contributing to the sharp decline in test probability prices.
IAEA head warns against nuclear testing by US, Russia, or others
June 30, 2026 plunges to 3%47%
The International Atomic Energy Agency Director General warned that any nuclear test by the US, Russia, or others would trigger a global cascade of nuclear tests, reinforcing international pressure against nuclear detonations. This diplomatic context contributed to market skepticism about Russia conducting a nuclear test in 2026.
IAEA head warns US and Russia against resuming nuclear tests
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, warned that if the US or Russia resumes nuclear testing, it would trigger other nations to follow, increasing global nuclear risks. This warning contributed to market skepticism about imminent Russian nuclear tests.
IAEA head warns US and Russia against resuming nuclear tests
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%41%
Rafael Grossi, Director General of the IAEA, warned that if the US, Russia, or any other nation resumes nuclear testing, it could trigger a global spiral of nuclear tests. This statement underscored international pressure against nuclear tests, likely contributing to market skepticism about imminent Russian nuclear tests.
CTBTO Chief Warns Resuming Nuclear Tests Could Trigger Global Spiral
The head of the organization overseeing the nuclear test ban treaty warned that any resumption of testing by the US or Russia would trigger a global chain reaction, reinforcing diplomatic pressure and contributing to a decline in market odds.
Head of nuclear test ban treaty organization warns against resuming nuclear tests
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
On April 21, 2026, the head of the organization overseeing the nuclear test ban treaty warned that if the US, Russia, or others resume nuclear testing, it could trigger a global nuclear test spiral. This statement likely influenced market sentiment by highlighting the risks and international pressure against nuclear tests, reducing expectations of a Russian nuclear test in 2026.
IAEA head warns against resuming nuclear tests amid treaty challenges
The International Atomic Energy Agency Director General warned that if major powers like the US or Russia resume nuclear testing, it could trigger a global cascade of tests. This statement underscored the high international barriers to nuclear testing, reinforcing market skepticism about a Russian nuclear test in 2026.
Russia Reaffirms Commitment to Nuclear Testing Moratorium but Warns of Response to US Violations
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov stated that Moscow maintains a strict commitment to its 1990 national moratorium on nuclear testing, though it would respond in kind if the US resumes explosive tests.
Ukraine drone strike hits Russian oil facility in Tuapse
The attack raised concerns about Russia’s domestic stability and its need to conserve strategic assets, reducing the perceived incentive for a risky nuclear test.
Russia announces missile tests at Kura range ahead of Victory Day
Russia announced missile tests at the Kura test site in the Ust-Kamchatka region scheduled from May 6 to May 10, involving systems capable of carrying nuclear warheads. This announcement raised market attention on potential nuclear-capable missile activity but did not confirm a nuclear test, contributing to cautious market sentiment.
US Space Command wargames Russia's hypothetical nuclear anti-satellite weapon use
The US Space Command conducted a wargame simulating Russia's potential use of a nuclear anti-satellite weapon, highlighting concerns about Russia's nuclear capabilities in space but no actual nuclear test occurred. This underscored tensions but did not increase expectations of a nuclear test, influencing market caution.
Chernihiv power outage due to Russian attack on power line
A power line in Chernihiv was damaged by Russian shelling, affecting over 4,300 customers and underscoring ongoing nuclear safety risks during the war.
U.S. imposes naval blockade on Iranian ports amid fragile ceasefire with Iran
December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%
The U.S. military blockade of Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz raised regional tensions and cast doubt on the fragile ceasefire, increasing global security concerns but not directly implicating Russia in nuclear testing. This heightened geopolitical risk may have influenced market perceptions of nuclear escalation risks generally.
U.S. President Trump signals intent to resume nuclear testing
Trump’s public remarks about restarting U.S. nuclear tests heightened the risk of reciprocal Russian testing, initially spiking the market before the subsequent diplomatic reassurance pulled prices down further.
Putin orders temporary cease‑fire for Easter, halting combat operations
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%41%
On 10 April 2026 Putin signed a decree ordering a temporary cease‑fire for Orthodox Easter. The move was interpreted as a de‑escalation signal and further reduced market expectations that Russia would conduct a nuclear test in the near term.
Russian forces intensify missile strikes in Ukraine but no nuclear test reported
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
On April 15–16, Russia launched its largest air attack on Ukraine in 2026, including ballistic missiles and drones, but there was no credible reporting of nuclear testing. This military escalation did not translate into nuclear test activity, reinforcing market skepticism about a test occurring soon.
Russian diplomat says Moscow will observe New START limits as long as the U.S. does
Dmitry Medvedev’s statement that Russia will stick to the treaty’s caps if the U.S. follows suit reassured markets that Moscow is not seeking to expand its arsenal through testing.
Medvedev calls Hormuz closure a ‘nuclear‑weapon‑like’ test
June 30, 2026 plunges to 1%49%
Medvedev’s X‑post on 9 April described Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz as a “nuclear weapon” and warned that the closure was a “test.” The heightened nuclear rhetoric briefly lifted market optimism about a Russian test, but the effect was modest and the overall trend remained downward.
Dmitry Medvedev calls Iran’s control of Strait of Hormuz a 'nuclear weapon'
Medvedev's statement equating Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz to a nuclear weapon heightened nuclear rhetoric but did not indicate any Russian nuclear test activity. This contributed to market uncertainty but did not increase test probability.
Russia’s Medvedev Calls Iran’s Control of Strait of Hormuz a 'Nuclear Weapon'
On April 9, Dmitry Medvedev described Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz as a nuclear weapon, emphasizing geopolitical tensions but not indicating any Russian nuclear test. This rhetoric heightened nuclear concerns but did not translate into a test, influencing market skepticism.
Russia’s Security Council deputy chair calls Iran’s control of Strait of Hormuz a 'nuclear weapon'
September 30, 2026 dips to 10%2%
On April 9, Dmitry Medvedev described Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz as a 'nuclear weapon,' emphasizing geopolitical nuclear tensions in the region but not indicating any Russian nuclear test. This rhetoric contributed to heightened awareness of nuclear risks without evidence of testing.
Russian Security Council deputy warns Iran’s control of Strait of Hormuz is a nuclear weapon
June 30, 2026 drops to 2%8%
On April 9, Dmitry Medvedev described Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz as effectively a nuclear weapon, emphasizing geopolitical tensions but not indicating any Russian nuclear test. This statement reflected strategic posturing rather than action, maintaining low test probability.
Russia's Deputy Security Council Chair Calls Strait of Hormuz Closure a 'Nuclear Weapon'
September 30, 2026 rises to 10%1%
Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chair of Russia's Security Council, stated on X that Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz is effectively a 'nuclear weapon' with 'inexhaustible potential,' and that the strait is closed again. This statement contributed to the September 30, 2026 outcome price movement.
Russia’s Deputy Security Council Chair calls Iran’s control of Strait of Hormuz a 'nuclear weapon'
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%1%
Dmitry Medvedev equated Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz to a nuclear weapon, emphasizing geopolitical nuclear tensions but not indicating any Russian nuclear test. This statement contributed to market uncertainty but no test event.
Russia's Medvedev claims Iran's control of Strait of Hormuz is a 'nuclear weapon'
September 30, 2026 dips to 10%2%
Dmitry Medvedev described Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz as a 'nuclear weapon' metaphorically, emphasizing geopolitical tensions but not indicating any Russian nuclear test. This rhetoric contributed to market uncertainty but no test occurred.
Dmitry Medvedev Calls Iran's Control of Strait of Hormuz a Virtual 'Nuclear Weapon'
Dmitry Medvedev issued a statement on X framing Iran's maritime blockade as a virtual nuclear weapon, emphasizing rhetorical posturing over actual physical nuclear testing by Russia.
Medvedev calls Iran's control over Strait of Hormuz a 'nuclear weapon'
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%41%
Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chair of Russia's Security Council, claimed Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz is effectively a 'nuclear weapon' with 'inexhaustible potential,' adding to nuclear tensions in the region.
Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Medvedev claims Iran has 'tested its nuclear weapons' via Strait of Hormuz
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
Dmitry Medvedev stated that Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz is effectively a nuclear weapon, calling its closure a test with inexhaustible potential. This statement reflects heightened nuclear rhetoric involving Russia and Iran but does not indicate any Russian nuclear test, influencing market sentiment to lower the probability of a Russian test.
Russian Foreign Intelligence Service claims EU leaders discuss nuclear weapons production capabilities
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%1%
On April 8, 2026, the Russian SVR accused EU leaders of planning nuclear weapons production, a claim aimed at sowing discord between the US and EU. This propaganda effort did not indicate any Russian nuclear test plans but reflected ongoing diplomatic tensions, maintaining market skepticism about a test.
SVR accuses UK and France of attempting to transfer a 'dirty bomb' to Ukraine
September 30, 2026 plunges to 7%43%
The SVR made baseless accusations against the UK and France without evidence of nuclear weapon or dirty bomb transfer, likely intended to disrupt Western security discussions and elevate nuclear escalation rhetoric.
Russian official Dmitry Medvedev claims Iran 'tested nuclear weapons' via Strait of Hormuz
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev stated that Iran has 'tested its nuclear weapons' in the form of control over the Strait of Hormuz, a metaphorical claim rather than an actual nuclear detonation. This rhetoric increased geopolitical tensions but did not indicate a Russian nuclear test, contributing to market price declines.
Russian offensive campaign assessment highlights ongoing conflict but no nuclear test
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
On April 8, 2026, analysis of the Russian offensive campaign in Ukraine detailed heavy casualties and military attrition but did not report any nuclear test by Russia. The continued conflict and nuclear rhetoric increased market caution but the lack of a test event led to further price declines in the market.
ISW Reports Russian Nuclear Rhetoric Is Coordinated Information Effort to Divide US and EU
The Institute for the Study of War reported that the Kremlin's elevated nuclear escalation rhetoric and baseless SVR accusations are coordinated information efforts to drive a wedge between Western allies, rather than precursors to actual nuclear testing.
Russian military setbacks and Ukrainian advances undermine nuclear test expectations
September 30, 2026 dips to 9%3%
Reports from ISW and Russia Matters highlighted Russian military losses and Ukrainian counterattacks in early April 2026, reducing the perceived likelihood of Russia conducting a nuclear test soon.
Russian forces suffer heavy casualties in Ukraine, nuclear rhetoric escalates
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
By April 8, 2026, reports indicated significant Russian military casualties in Ukraine and increased nuclear escalation rhetoric from the Kremlin, but no nuclear test occurred. This heightened tensions but did not translate into a nuclear test, further lowering market prices for a test by June 30, 2026.
Kremlin escalates nuclear rhetoric amid Ukraine conflict but no nuclear test occurs
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
In early April 2026, Russian officials increased nuclear escalation rhetoric to influence Western relations, but no nuclear test was reported. This rhetoric maintained market uncertainty but did not increase test probability, sustaining low prices.
Russia's SVR claims EU leaders discuss nuclear weapons production
The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) falsely claimed EU leaders were discussing nuclear weapons development, part of a broader effort to fracture US-EU relations and portray the EU as acting against US nuclear interests.
Russian Foreign Intelligence Service accuses EU of nuclear ambitions amid no test evidence
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
The SVR made baseless claims about EU nuclear weapons development, part of Kremlin information efforts, but no evidence or reports of Russian nuclear testing surfaced. This reinforced market views against a near-term Russian nuclear test.
Russia's SVR Accuses EU of Acting Counter to US Nuclear Interests
The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) made baseless accusations against the EU to fracture US-EU relations. Analysts noted this was part of a coordinated information effort to elevate nuclear escalation rhetoric rather than signal an imminent physical nuclear test, contributing to the sharp drop in market expectations.
Russian intelligence accuses EU leaders of nuclear weapons ambitions amid tensions
Russian SVR accused EU leaders of discussing nuclear weapons production, part of Kremlin efforts to sow discord between the US and EU. These accusations were unsubstantiated and did not involve any Russian nuclear test, contributing to market skepticism about imminent Russian nuclear detonations.
Kremlin escalates nuclear rhetoric amid Ukraine conflict
September 30, 2026 dips to 9%1%
On April 8, 2026, reports indicated the Kremlin was intensifying nuclear escalation rhetoric to drive a wedge between the US and EU, but no nuclear test occurred. This heightened rhetoric increased geopolitical tensions but did not translate into a nuclear detonation, reinforcing market skepticism about a test happening soon.
Russia claims EU leaders discuss developing nuclear weapons
The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) falsely claimed EU leaders were discussing nuclear weapons development, portraying the EU as a nuclear threat to Russia.
Ukrainian air defenses shoot down 89.9% of Russian missiles and drones in March 2026
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%42%
Ukraine's successful defense of its airspace in March 2026 undermined Russian claims of military superiority and reduced the perceived need for nuclear escalation.
Russian Foreign Intelligence Service Accuses EU of Discussing Nuclear Weapons Development
The Russian SVR claimed that EU leaders are discussing developing their own nuclear weapons capabilities, specifically alleging Germany could build a bomb quickly. This shift in rhetoric focused on accusing Western nations rather than signaling imminent Russian nuclear tests, contributing to the continued low probability of a Russian test.
Kremlin escalates nuclear rhetoric but no nuclear test occurs
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%34%
The Kremlin increased nuclear escalation rhetoric to influence US-EU relations amid the Ukraine conflict, but no nuclear test was conducted. This rhetoric did not translate into an actual nuclear detonation, leading to further market price declines for a nuclear test by Russia.
SVR Accuses UK and France of Attempting to Transfer Nuclear Weapon to Ukraine
The SVR's baseless accusations against Western nations, likely intended to disrupt NATO cohesion, contributed to market speculation about nuclear escalation risks.
Russian state TV issues chilling nuclear threat to Ukraine but no nuclear test reported
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
Russian state television threatened nuclear strikes against Ukraine, escalating nuclear rhetoric amid military setbacks. Despite the threats, no nuclear test was reported, contributing to the market's sharp decline in the probability of a Russian nuclear test by the deadlines.
Russia sets 2026 deadline for draft design of nuclear rocket engine
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%39%
On 7 April 2026 Russia announced completion dates for a new nuclear‑rocket‑engine project, a civilian space‑technology programme. The announcement shifted market perception that Moscow’s nuclear activity was focused on peaceful space work rather than a weapons test, prompting the sharp drop in "Yes" probabilities for a nuclear test.
Russia announces draft design completion of nuclear rocket engine by end of 2026
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
Russia announced plans to present a draft design of a new nuclear rocket engine for space missions by the end of 2026, indicating nuclear technology development but not a nuclear test. This announcement contributed to market reassessment of nuclear activity timelines.
Russia announces plans to resume nuclear rocket engine research for space missions
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
Russia declared it will present a draft design of a new nuclear rocket engine by the end of 2026, aimed at lunar flights and long-range space missions. This development reflects Russia's focus on nuclear technology for peaceful space exploration rather than nuclear weapons testing, which likely contributed to market reassessment of nuclear test probabilities.
Russia Announces Timeline for Non-Explosive Space Nuclear Rocket Engine Design
Russia announced it will present a draft design for a new nuclear rocket engine by the end of 2026. This clarified that Russia's active nuclear development programs are focused on non-explosive space propulsion technology rather than explosive weapons testing.
Russia announces nuclear rocket engine design draft by end of 2026
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%46%
Russia revealed plans to present a draft design for a nuclear rocket engine by the end of 2026, signaling nuclear technology development but not a nuclear test, which contributed to market reassessment of nuclear test likelihood.
Russia and China veto UN resolution on Strait of Hormuz, escalating geopolitical tensions
September 30, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Russia and China vetoed a UN resolution aimed at protecting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, increasing regional tensions but not involving nuclear testing. This diplomatic event contributed to heightened nuclear rhetoric but did not translate into nuclear test expectations.
Russia and China veto UN resolution on Strait of Hormuz amid Iran tensions
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
Russia and China vetoed a UN Security Council resolution aimed at protecting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, reflecting geopolitical tensions but no indication of Russian nuclear testing. This event contributed to market uncertainty but did not increase nuclear test likelihood.
Russia commits to adhering to New START nuclear arms limits despite treaty expiration
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%41%
On April 7, 2026, Russian officials stated that Russia would continue to observe the limits of the expired New START treaty as long as the United States did the same. This commitment reduced market fears of imminent Russian nuclear testing, contributing to a sharp decline in the market price for a test by September 30, 2026.
Russian TV warns nuclear strike could wipe Ukrainian cities off the face of the earth
Russian state television aired a chilling warning that nuclear strikes could be used to “wipe Ukrainian cities off the face of the earth,” raising fears of imminent nuclear escalation but not an actual test. The news triggered a further plunge in the market’s expectation of a test.
SVR falsely accuses UK and France of attempting to transfer nuclear weapons to Ukraine
December 31, 2026 plunges to 11%39%
The SVR made baseless accusations against the UK and France, part of a Kremlin effort to fracture US-EU relations and portray the EU as acting counter to US nuclear interests.
Russia announces nuclear rocket engine project draft design by end of 2026
Russia revealed plans to present a draft design for a nuclear rocket engine for space missions by the end of 2026, indicating nuclear technology development but unrelated to nuclear weapons testing, thus not supporting a nuclear test occurrence.
SVR falsely accuses UK and France of nuclear ambitions
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
The SVR made baseless accusations against the UK and France without evidence of nuclear transfers, part of a Kremlin effort to fracture US-EU relations and increase nuclear threat rhetoric.
Western analysts highlight risks of nuclear escalation but no Russian test reported
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
Analysts and commentators discussed the risks of nuclear escalation involving Russia, especially in light of the ongoing Ukraine conflict and NATO tensions, but no credible reports of a Russian nuclear test emerged. This contributed to the market's continued decline in the probability of a Russian nuclear test by the listed dates.
Russia warns of nuclear escalation in Iran conflict
December 31, 2026 plunges to 13%37%
Russia's warning that the West Asia conflict could go nuclear heightened global nuclear risk perceptions and reduced confidence in Russia conducting a nuclear test.
Trump declares intent to restart nuclear testing
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
Donald Trump announced his intention to restart nuclear testing, prompting concerns about nuclear proliferation and raising fears of nuclear conflict in the Middle East.
IAEA provides updates on Iran nuclear facilities after recent strikes
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
The IAEA reported on attacks at two additional Iranian nuclear facilities, continuing the pattern of strikes that have disrupted Iran's nuclear program and raised concerns about nuclear proliferation.
Trump’s nuclear‑use talk and Putin’s fresh nuclear threats dominate April‑6 nuclear news roundup
A nuclear‑news roundup highlighted that President Trump had revived talk of using tactical nukes, and noted that Putin’s recent nuclear threats added to global tension. The combined coverage reinforced market belief that a formal Russian test was unlikely in the near term.
Former CIA director discusses acute concerns about Russian nuclear use in 2022
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%41%
William Burns, former CIA director, in an April 4 podcast, reflected on the acute concerns within the US administration about possible Russian nuclear use in 2022, underscoring ongoing fears but no new nuclear tests by Russia in 2026. This context contributed to market reassessment of nuclear test probabilities.
Russian Navy general killed in military plane crash in Crimea
June 30, 2026 plunges to 3%47%
On April 6, 2026, a Russian Navy general died in a military transport plane crash near Sevastopol, Crimea. This incident highlighted ongoing military challenges but was unrelated to nuclear testing, reinforcing market views that no nuclear test occurred.
US Space Command highlights threat of Russian nuclear anti-satellite weapon in wargame
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
US Space Command focused on Russia's hypothetical use of a nuclear anti-satellite weapon in a wargame, emphasizing the threat of nuclear weapons in space but not a nuclear test on Earth. This reinforced concerns about Russia's nuclear capabilities but did not signal an imminent nuclear test, contributing to market price declines.
No nuclear test detected amid Russia’s ongoing military operations
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%41%
Despite intensified Russian missile and drone attacks in Ukraine and military advances, no nuclear test was detected or reported by credible sources during early April 2026, reinforcing market skepticism about a near-term Russian nuclear test.
No credible reports of Russian nuclear test amid heightened geopolitical tensions
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%46%
Despite increased tensions and speculation about nuclear escalation, no credible reporting emerged attributing any nuclear test to Russia during the analysis window. This absence of evidence led to a sharp market reassessment, pushing probabilities for a test near zero by June and September 2026.
Russian intelligence accuses EU leaders of nuclear weapons ambitions amid disinformation campaign
June 30, 2026 plunges to 3%47%
Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) accused unspecified EU leaders of developing nuclear weapons capabilities, part of Kremlin efforts to fracture US-EU relations and elevate nuclear rhetoric. This disinformation campaign increased nuclear tension discourse but did not signal an actual Russian nuclear test, influencing market skepticism.
Trump reportedly declares intent to restart nuclear testing
Trump reportedly declared his intent to restart nuclear testing, raising nuclear risk perceptions and influencing market sentiment, though not directly related to Russia's actions.
Russian leader Putin's nuclear threats and warnings amid Middle East conflict raise concerns but no test occurs
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
Russian leader Vladimir Putin frequently issued nuclear threats related to the West Asia conflict, raising global fears of nuclear escalation. However, no nuclear test was conducted by Russia during this period, leading to a decline in market prices reflecting the reduced likelihood of a test.
Ukrenergo reports emergency power outages due to Russian shelling
Ukrenergo announced emergency power outages across Ukraine following Russian attacks, heightening nuclear safety concerns and contributing to market price volatility.
No credible reports of Russian nuclear test amid ongoing geopolitical tensions
September 30, 2026 dips to 8%2%
Despite heightened tensions and discussions of nuclear posturing, no credible media or intelligence reports emerged indicating Russia conducted a nuclear test. This lack of evidence further pushed market prices down, reflecting diminished likelihood of a test by the end of 2026.
Russia announces draft design of new nuclear rocket engine by end of 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%1%
Russia declared plans to present a draft design for a new nuclear rocket engine by the end of 2026, focusing on space exploration rather than nuclear weapons testing. This forward-looking announcement reinforced the market's view that no nuclear test had occurred in the analyzed window.
US-Israeli strikes on Iran and regional tensions increase nuclear risk awareness but no Russian test
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%49%
The 2026 US-Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear infrastructure and the resulting geopolitical tensions raised global nuclear concerns. However, no credible reports emerged of Russia conducting a nuclear test, leading to further market price declines for the likelihood of such a test by mid-2026.
Russia’s deputy Security Council chair calls Strait of Hormuz a ‘nuclear weapon’
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%46%
Dmitry Medvedev described Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz as effectively a nuclear weapon, reflecting Russia’s strategic rhetoric amid regional tensions. This statement contributed to market uncertainty about nuclear risks but did not signal a nuclear test by Russia.
European Union Reaffirms Commitment to Nuclear Test Ban Treaty at UN
December 31, 2026 plunges to 11%39%
The European Union delivered a statement at the UN Disarmament Commission, strongly reinforcing the global norm against nuclear testing and calling on all states to uphold the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.
Western analysts note no evidence of Russian nuclear test despite tensions
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
Analyses from multiple sources during early April 2026 found no credible reports of Russia conducting or planning a nuclear test, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and military conflicts. This consensus contributed to the market sharply lowering the probability of a Russian nuclear test by the listed dates.
Russia denies nuclear test but continues nuclear rhetoric amid Ukraine war
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
Despite ongoing conflict and nuclear threats, no credible reports emerged of Russia conducting a nuclear test. Russian officials and analysts emphasized nuclear weapons' strategic role but refrained from testing, leading markets to lower test probability.
Russia Warns of Nuclear Escalation in West Asia Conflict
Russia's leader Vladimir Putin made nuclear threats, warning that the West Asia conflict could go nuclear, heightening global nuclear risk perceptions.
Russia reopens gateway to ISS with nuclear-electric propulsion demonstration
Russia announced a nuclear-electric propulsion demonstration for the Gateway space station, which may have contributed to market speculation about nuclear technology developments.
No credible reports of Russian nuclear test amid ongoing geopolitical tensions
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%46%
Despite ongoing conflicts and heightened tensions, no credible reporting emerged attributing any nuclear test to Russia during the analysis window, leading to a collapse in market prices for a Russian nuclear test by all three dates.
US-Israeli strike near Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant kills one, no radiation increase
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
A projectile from a US-Israeli strike landed near Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant, killing one security guard but causing no increase in radiation levels. The International Atomic Energy Agency expressed concern but confirmed no nuclear detonation occurred. This event heightened regional tensions but did not involve Russian nuclear testing.
Russia condemns attacks on Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant amid regional conflict
September 30, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Russia expressed strong condemnation of attacks on the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran, highlighting concerns over nuclear safety but with no indication of Russia conducting nuclear tests itself, contributing to market skepticism about imminent Russian nuclear testing.
Strikes on Iran's Bushehr Nuclear Plant Draw Russian Condemnation
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
Following strikes on Iran's Bushehr nuclear facility, Russia issued a strong diplomatic condemnation rather than military or nuclear escalation. This measured diplomatic response signaled that Russia was not seeking to escalate the conflict through physical nuclear testing.
Russia condemns attacks on Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant amid regional tensions
Russia expressed strong condemnation of attacks on the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran, where Russian personnel are present, but there was no indication of Russia conducting nuclear tests. This reinforced the market view that Russia was not escalating to nuclear testing.
Russia says its nuclear‑capable Oreshnik missiles have entered service in Belarus
Moscow announced the operational deployment of the Oreshnik hypersonic system, a move seen as a deterrent rather than a prelude to testing, which helped push prices lower.
Concerns rise over attacks near Russia-linked Bushehr nuclear plant in Iran
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
On April 5, reports highlighted escalating risks to the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran, where Russian personnel are present, due to ongoing strikes. This situation underscored Russia's involvement in nuclear energy abroad but did not indicate any nuclear test by Russia itself, contributing to market reassessment and price declines.
CIA Director Burns Reflects on Past Russian Nuclear Threats
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%40%
In an interview, CIA Director William Burns discussed the peak of U.S. concerns regarding Russian tactical nuclear use, which occurred in late 2022. The retrospective nature of the discussion highlighted that current risks of an active Russian nuclear test or detonation had stabilized.
U.S. calculates Russia's nuclear response in a full-scale NATO conflict
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%41%
U.S. NATO wargaming exercises in February 2026 confirmed escalation thresholds between Moscow and NATO, heightening nuclear tensions and influencing market perceptions of potential nuclear use.
US war games predict near-certain Russian nuclear response if militarily defeated by NATO
December 31, 2026 plunges to 10%40%
US military exercises in February 2026 concluded that Russia would likely resort to nuclear weapons if facing defeat by NATO, with a calculated probability of 0.99 for nuclear escalation. This scenario analysis heightened awareness of nuclear risks but did not indicate an imminent test, contributing to market reassessment and price drops for near-term test probabilities.
Russia Coordinates with Israel to Evacuate Rosatom Technicians from Iran's Bushehr Nuclear Plant
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%35%
Following US-Israeli strikes near Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant, Russia coordinated with the IDF to evacuate its nuclear technicians. This highlighted Russia's focus on managing external nuclear risks and protecting its personnel rather than initiating its own nuclear testing program.
US war games predict near-certain Russian nuclear response in full-scale NATO conflict
On April 4, 2026, reports emerged from US NATO war games indicating a 0.99 probability that Russia would resort to nuclear weapons if facing military defeat by NATO. While this heightened nuclear rhetoric, no nuclear test was conducted, influencing market prices downward as a test seemed unlikely in the near term.
US NATO exercises confirm 99% probability of Russian nuclear use if threatened
September 30, 2026 plunges to 13%38%
NATO's February 2026 exercises indicated a near-certain probability (99%) that Russia would resort to nuclear weapons if facing military defeat, identifying key triggers such as blockades and strikes on strategic Russian targets. This heightened nuclear threat perception influenced market expectations but did not indicate an imminent test.
US NATO exercises confirm critical escalation thresholds with Russia
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%46%
US NATO wargaming exercises in February 2026 confirmed thresholds for escalation with Russia but did not indicate any imminent Russian nuclear test, reinforcing market expectations of no test by mid-2026.
Former CIA Director William Burns discusses nuclear concerns about Russia
William Burns, former CIA director, discussed in a podcast that people within the administration were concerned about nuclear use by Russia, reinforcing nuclear risk perceptions.
Former CIA director discusses Russia's tactical nuclear weapon considerations in 2022
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%46%
William Burns stated in an April 4 podcast that Russia considered using tactical nuclear weapons in late 2022 if Ukraine's advance threatened Crimea. This historical insight reminded markets of Russia's nuclear posture but did not signal a new test, influencing price declines.
U.S. NATO Wargames Confirm Russia's Nuclear Response Threshold
NATO wargames revealed Russia's nuclear response threshold in a full-scale conflict with NATO, increasing market concern about potential nuclear escalation.
Russia evacuates 198 staff from Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant amid conflict
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
Russia's state nuclear company Rosatom evacuated 198 staff from the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran due to escalating military strikes near the facility. This evacuation underscored heightened risks but did not involve any nuclear test by Russia, reducing market expectations of imminent Russian nuclear testing.
Former CIA Director William Burns discusses past concerns about Russian nuclear use
December 31, 2026 plunges to 10%40%
In an April 4 podcast, William Burns reflected on the acute concerns within the U.S. administration in fall 2022 about potential Russian nuclear use. This historical context reinforced market caution but did not indicate any imminent nuclear test by Russia, contributing to a decline in test probability.
Russia coordinates with Israel on evacuation of workers from Iran nuclear plant amid strikes
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
On April 4, 2026, Russia reportedly coordinated with the Israel Defense Forces to evacuate Russian technicians from Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant following US-Israeli strikes nearby. This highlighted Russia's nuclear-related activities abroad but did not involve any nuclear test, reinforcing market views against an imminent Russian nuclear test.
CIA Director William Burns Notes Russia Only Considers Tactical Nuclear Use Under Extreme Threats to Crimea
In a widely reported podcast interview, CIA Director William Burns explained that Russia's threshold for considering tactical nuclear weapons remains tied to extreme scenarios like a rapid threat to Putin's grip on Crimea, reinforcing that Russia is not on the verge of arbitrary nuclear testing or deployment.
Former CIA director discusses concerns about Russian nuclear use in 2022
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%41%
William Burns, former CIA director, discussed in an April 4 podcast the acute concerns within the US administration in late 2022 about potential Russian nuclear weapon use, reflecting ongoing high-level awareness of nuclear risks but no test occurrence in 2026.
Russia Coordinates with IDF to Evacuate Workers from Iran's Bushehr Nuclear Plant
Amid US-Israeli strikes near the Bushehr nuclear power plant, Russia coordinated with the IDF to safely evacuate its technicians. This cooperative de-escalation measure signaled a preference for diplomatic and operational risk management over unilateral nuclear escalation.
NATO calculates Russia's nuclear response in full-scale conflict with NATO
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%43%
A US-NATO wargaming exercise confirmed the critical escalation threshold between Russia and NATO, heightening nuclear tensions and influencing market perception of potential conflict.
US NATO exercises confirm high probability of Russian nuclear use if threatened
September 30, 2026 plunges to 13%36%
On April 4, NATO exercises revealed a 99% probability that Russia would use nuclear weapons if facing military defeat, but no indication of imminent nuclear testing. This heightened nuclear rhetoric but did not translate into a test, influencing market skepticism about a test occurring soon.
U.S. and NATO calculate Russia's nuclear response to full-scale conflict
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%42%
U.S. NATO wargaming exercises confirmed the critical threshold of escalation between Moscow and the Alliance, reinforcing concerns about nuclear readiness and potential conflict escalation.
US NATO war games indicate 99% chance Russia would use nuclear weapons if threatened with defeat
December 31, 2026 plunges to 10%40%
US-led NATO exercises in February 2026 concluded that Russia would likely resort to nuclear weapons if facing military defeat, with triggers including blockades and attacks on strategic Russian regions. This heightened awareness of nuclear escalation risk influenced market perceptions but did not indicate an imminent test.
US NATO war games confirm 99% chance Russia would use nuclear weapons if threatened
September 30, 2026 plunges to 13%38%
US NATO exercises in February 2026 concluded that Russia would likely resort to nuclear weapons if facing military defeat, raising nuclear escalation concerns. However, this was a simulation and did not indicate an imminent nuclear test, leading markets to discount the probability of an actual test by Russia.
Anti-Aircraft Artillery Strike on Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant Perimeter
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
An anti-aircraft artillery strike targeted a defensive position just outside the Bushehr nuclear power plant, raising concerns about nuclear facility security and potential escalation.
Strikes near Bushehr nuclear plant raise security concerns but no nuclear test by Russia
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
Projectile impacts were identified near the Bushehr nuclear power plant complex, involving Russian personnel, but no nuclear detonation occurred. This incident heightened regional tensions but did not indicate a Russian nuclear test, reinforcing market skepticism.
US calculates near-certain Russian nuclear response in full-scale NATO conflict
December 31, 2026 plunges to 13%37%
On April 4, 2026, US NATO wargaming exercises concluded that Russia would almost certainly resort to nuclear weapons if facing military defeat by NATO. This heightened nuclear rhetoric but did not indicate an imminent nuclear test by Russia, contributing to market reassessment of nuclear test probabilities.
US-NATO Wargames Calculate High Probability of Russian Nuclear Response in Direct Conflict
Reports emerged detailing US-NATO command exercises showing that while Russia maintains a high probability of nuclear escalation in a direct clash with NATO, it continues to show restraint and relies on nuclear weapons as a strategic deterrent rather than active testing.
Former CIA Director William Burns Highlights Past Concerns Over Russian Nuclear Use
September 30, 2026 drops to 46%5%
In an April 4 podcast interview, William Burns discussed the acute concerns within the U.S. administration in fall 2022 about potential Russian nuclear use, underscoring ongoing fears but no new evidence of nuclear testing by Russia in 2026. This maintained market skepticism about imminent Russian nuclear tests.
IAEA Reports Projectile Strike Near Russia-Built Bushehr Nuclear Plant in Iran
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%41%
The IAEA confirmed a projectile struck near the Bushehr nuclear plant, where Russian personnel are stationed. This highlighted that Russia's nuclear involvement was focused on managing its civilian reactor assets abroad rather than preparing for domestic weapons testing.
U.S. NATO wargaming confirms nuclear escalation threshold with Russia
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%39%
U.S. NATO wargaming exercises in February 2026 confirmed the critical threshold of escalation between Moscow and NATO, heightening nuclear tensions and influencing market sentiment.
U.S. NATO wargaming confirms Russia's nuclear response threshold
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%43%
U.S. NATO wargaming exercises revealed the critical escalation threshold between Moscow and NATO, heightening concerns about nuclear brinkmanship and influencing market pricing.
Russia Evacuates Staff From Iran's Bushehr Nuclear Plant Following Nearby Strikes
Rosatom evacuated 198 personnel from the Bushehr nuclear facility after a projectile struck nearby. This coordination and defensive posture signaled a focus on managing regional fallout rather than initiating escalatory nuclear tests.
US NATO wargaming command confirms critical threshold of escalation in Russia-NATO relations
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
US NATO wargaming exercises confirmed escalation thresholds, reinforcing nuclear deterrence posture and reducing market speculation about a Russian nuclear test.
US war games confirm high probability of Russian nuclear response in full-scale NATO conflict
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
US NATO war games in February 2026 confirmed that Russia would likely respond with nuclear weapons if facing military defeat by NATO, with a calculated probability of 0.99 for nuclear salvo. This scenario heightened awareness of Russia's nuclear posture but did not indicate an actual test, influencing market perceptions downward on a near-term test.
U.S. NATO wargames confirm critical escalation threshold with Russia
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
On April 4, 2026, reports emerged from U.S. NATO Concept Development & Wargaming exercises confirming the critical threshold of escalation in relations with Russia, including nuclear scenarios. This reinforced the perception of nuclear risk but did not correspond to any actual Russian nuclear test, leading markets to lower the probability of a test occurring soon.
No damage to Bushehr nuclear plant despite nearby strikes
June 30, 2026 plunges to 3%47%
Imagery confirmed no damage to the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran despite nearby projectile impacts on April 4, 2026. This event highlighted ongoing regional nuclear tensions but did not involve Russian nuclear testing, maintaining low market probabilities for such a test.
Former CIA director discusses acute concerns about Russian nuclear use in 2022
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%34%
William Burns highlighted in an April 4 podcast the serious concerns within the US administration about potential Russian nuclear use in 2022, reflecting ongoing fears but no new nuclear test by Russia in 2026.
Former CIA director discusses acute concerns about Russian nuclear use in 2022
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%41%
William Burns highlighted in an April 4 podcast that US intelligence was seriously concerned about potential Russian nuclear use during the Ukraine conflict in 2022, underscoring ongoing fears but no actual nuclear test in 2026.
US NATO wargames highlight high probability of Russian nuclear response if threatened
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%40%
US NATO exercises in February 2026 confirmed a 99% probability that Russia would use nuclear weapons if facing military defeat, identifying triggers like blockade of Kaliningrad and strikes on Russian strategic targets. This reinforced market perceptions of nuclear risk but did not indicate an imminent test, contributing to cautious price adjustments.
Russia Coordinates with Israel to Evacuate Technicians from Iran's Bushehr Nuclear Plant
Following US-Israeli military strikes near Iran's Bushehr nuclear facility, Russia coordinated with the Israel Defense Forces to safely evacuate its state nuclear technicians, demonstrating a focus on risk mitigation and de-escalation.
Russia Coordinates with Israel to Evacuate Workers from Bushehr Nuclear Plant
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%40%
Following joint US-Israeli airstrikes in Iran, Russia's state nuclear company Rosatom evacuated personnel from the Bushehr nuclear facility, signaling that Russia was focused on diplomatic coordination and safety rather than nuclear escalation.
US intelligence official discusses past concerns about Russian nuclear use
September 30, 2026 dips to 10%2%
On April 4, former CIA director William Burns discussed in a podcast the acute concerns within the US administration in 2022 about potential Russian nuclear use, highlighting ongoing nuclear tensions but no current evidence of a test. This context maintained market caution but did not increase odds of a test.
US NATO war games highlight near-certain Russian nuclear response in conflict
December 31, 2026 plunges to 10%40%
US NATO war games in February 2026 concluded that Russia would almost certainly resort to nuclear weapons if facing military defeat, raising fears of nuclear escalation but no actual test occurred. This heightened awareness influenced market perceptions about the likelihood of a Russian nuclear test in 2026.
NATO calculates Russia's nuclear response in full-scale conflict
NATO wargaming exercises revealed Russia's nuclear escalation threshold, increasing market concern about potential nuclear conflict and influencing both market options.
US NATO war games confirm critical escalation thresholds with Russia
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%37%
On April 4, 2026, reports highlighted US NATO command exercises from February 2026 that confirmed critical escalation thresholds in relations with Russia, underscoring heightened tensions but no indication of imminent Russian nuclear testing. This context likely reinforced market skepticism about a near-term nuclear test.
US NATO war games estimate 99% chance of Russian nuclear use if defeated
December 31, 2026 plunges to 14%36%
US-led NATO exercises in February 2026 concluded that Russia would almost certainly resort to nuclear weapons if facing military defeat, identifying key triggers such as blockades or strikes on strategic Russian regions. This heightened awareness of nuclear escalation risk influenced market perceptions but did not indicate an imminent test.
US NATO wargames confirm critical escalation threshold with Russia
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%39%
US NATO Concept Development & Wargaming exercises in February 2026 confirmed a critical threshold of escalation in relations with Russia, underscoring heightened tensions but no nuclear test. This reinforced market doubts about imminent Russian nuclear testing despite conflict escalation.
U.S. war games predict near-certain Russian nuclear response to military defeat
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%41%
On April 4, reports from U.S. NATO war games indicated a 0.99 probability of Russia resorting to nuclear weapons if facing military defeat by NATO. This scenario heightened awareness of nuclear risks but did not signal an actual test, influencing market perceptions downward.
Russian military advances and Ukrainian counteractions continue without nuclear escalation
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%40%
Between March 31 and April 7, 2026, Russian forces made limited advances in Ukraine while Ukrainian forces regained territory. Despite ongoing conflict and casualties, no nuclear tests or detonations by Russia were reported, reducing market expectations for a nuclear test in 2026.
Kremlin escalates nuclear rhetoric but no nuclear test occurs
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%39%
The Kremlin increased nuclear escalation rhetoric to drive wedges between the US and EU, but no nuclear test was conducted. This rhetoric did not translate into action, leading to further market price declines as the likelihood of a nuclear test diminished.
Disinformation claims of Russian nuclear missile transfers to Iran debunked
September 30, 2026 plunges to 12%34%
A viral claim that Russia secretly delivered 1,000 RS-28 Sarmat nuclear missiles to Iran was confirmed as disinformation, reducing fears of imminent Russian nuclear escalation.
Russian military activity intensifies in Ukraine with no nuclear test reported
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%37%
Russian forces launched multiple missile and drone strikes against Ukraine, but no nuclear test was reported or indicated. The focus remained on conventional warfare, which likely reduced market expectations of a nuclear test by Russia in 2026.
Russia warns West Asia conflict could go nuclear
Russian leadership issued a nuclear warning about the West Asia conflict, increasing nuclear risk perceptions and contributing to market price declines.
Ukrainian drone strikes severely damage Russian military assets, complicating Russia's military capabilities
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%49%
On April 3, 2026, reports detailed Ukrainian drone strikes destroying significant Russian military infrastructure and personnel, highlighting Russia's ongoing military challenges. This context suggested Russia was focused on conventional warfare rather than nuclear testing, further lowering market expectations for a test.
Russian forces gain territory in Ukraine amid ongoing conflict
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
Russian military advances in Ukraine during early April 2026 increased geopolitical tensions but did not involve nuclear testing, leading markets to lower the probability of a Russian nuclear test within the year.
Russia conducts missile strikes including nuclear-capable missiles but no nuclear test
June 30, 2026 plunges to 3%47%
Russia launched a massive missile strike on Ukraine using nuclear-capable missiles, heightening fears of escalation. Despite the use of nuclear-capable weapons, no nuclear test detonation occurred, leading to further market price declines for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
U.S. and Russia’s nuclear arms pact expires, raising fears of a new arms race
The New START treaty expired on Feb. 5, and analysts warned that the lack of limits could trigger a competitive buildup, prompting traders to reassess the likelihood of a Russian test.
Russia's nuclear threats and claims about European nuclear capabilities
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
Russia made explosive claims suggesting Germany could develop nuclear weapons in 30 days, intensifying nuclear tensions and fueling market speculation about nuclear escalation.
Russia Claims Germany Could Build Nuclear Bomb in 30 Days
Russia made explosive claims about Germany's nuclear capability, escalating nuclear tensions and contributing to market volatility.
Russian military advances in Ukraine but no nuclear test reported
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
Between March 31 and April 7, 2026, Russian forces made limited advances in Ukraine, but no nuclear test or related activity was reported. The ongoing conflict and military operations did not escalate to nuclear testing, reinforcing market expectations against a test by the end of 2026.
Russian forces launch extensive drone and missile strikes in Ukraine
September 30, 2026 plunges to 13%38%
On April 3, Russian forces launched a large-scale drone and missile attack on Ukraine, indicating ongoing conventional military operations without nuclear testing. This sustained conflict context contributed to market reassessment of nuclear test likelihood.
Ukrainian drone strikes destroy Russian storage facilities
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%41%
Ukrainian drone strikes destroyed at least 40 percent of storage facilities at Russia’s Primorsk port, demonstrating Ukraine's growing nuclear-armed drone capabilities and increasing strategic uncertainty.
Bushehr nuclear power plant hit by missile strike
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
A missile strike hit the anti-aircraft artillery position just outside the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, raising concerns about nuclear facility security and potential escalation.
Ukrainian drone strikes severely damage Russian military logistics and infrastructure
September 30, 2026 plunges to 13%36%
Ukrainian drone attacks destroyed significant Russian military storage and logistics facilities, weakening Russia's conventional military capabilities. This ongoing conflict dynamic reduced expectations of Russia conducting a nuclear test, as focus remained on conventional warfare.
No credible reports of Russian nuclear test amid ongoing Ukraine conflict
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%40%
Despite ongoing conflict and nuclear rhetoric, no credible reporting emerged of Russia conducting a nuclear test by early April 2026. This absence of evidence led to a sharp decline in market prices for all test date outcomes, reflecting diminished expectations of a test.
Russian nuclear rhetoric escalates but no nuclear test occurs
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%39%
The Kremlin increased nuclear escalation rhetoric to influence Western relations, but no nuclear test was conducted or credibly reported. This contributed to the market lowering the probability of a Russian nuclear test by the end of 2026.
Former CIA director discusses 2022 fears of Russian nuclear use in Ukraine conflict
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%40%
William Burns, former CIA director, in an April 4 podcast, reflected on the acute concerns within the US administration in late 2022 about potential Russian nuclear use. This retrospective discussion reinforced market skepticism about imminent Russian nuclear testing in 2026.
Russia launches new Meridian-M military communication satellite
September 30, 2026 plunges to 13%36%
Russia successfully launched a Meridian-M military communication satellite on April 3, 2026, demonstrating ongoing strategic military capabilities but unrelated to nuclear testing. This event coincided with market movements but did not signal a nuclear test.
Market prices for June 30, 2026 outcome fall to near zero amid no nuclear test evidence
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%46%
By April 3, 2026, the market price for the June 30, 2026 outcome fell to 2%, reflecting near certainty that Russia would not conduct a nuclear test by that date, given the lack of any credible reporting or indication of such an event.
Russian forces make limited advances in Ukraine, no nuclear test reported
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%41%
Reports confirmed Russian military activity in Ukraine but no nuclear detonations or tests. This absence of nuclear events contributed to a sharp drop in market prices for nuclear test occurrence by all three dates.
Russia Launches Soyuz-2.1a Carrying Meridian-M Military Communications Satellite
The Russian Space Forces successfully launched a military communications satellite from the Plesetsk spaceport. The successful conventional military space launch reinforced that Russia's immediate strategic focus was on communications and conventional operations rather than nuclear test escalation.
Russia launches Meridian-M military communication satellite
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%41%
On April 3, 2026, Russia successfully launched a Meridian-M military communication satellite from Plesetsk Cosmodrome. This event indicated ongoing military space capabilities but was unrelated to nuclear testing, contributing to market reassessment and price decline.
Russian forces make limited advances in Ukraine, nuclear test unlikely
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
Russian military advances in Ukraine were reported but did not indicate escalation to nuclear testing. The market price for a nuclear test by June 30, 2026, dropped sharply, reflecting diminished expectations of such an event in the near term.
Ukrainian drones destroy 40% of Russia's Primorsk port storage facilities
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
Satellite imagery showed Ukrainian drone strikes destroyed at least 40% of storage facilities at Russia's Primorsk port, disrupting Russian logistics and military supply chains.
Russian-linked nuclear power plant in Iran at risk amid regional conflict
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%36%
Ongoing strikes near the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran, where Russian personnel are present, raised concerns about nuclear safety but did not involve any nuclear test by Russia. This highlighted Russia's nuclear-related geopolitical involvement without testing nuclear weapons.
Russia warns West Asia conflict could go nuclear
Russian leadership warned that the West Asia conflict could escalate to nuclear use, increasing nuclear risk perceptions and influencing market sentiment.
Iran Claims Three Nuclear Facility Attacks in March 2026
Iran's claim of multiple attacks on its nuclear facilities intensified fears of nuclear proliferation and triggered a nuclear arms race narrative, affecting all market outcomes.
Russian Foreign Intelligence Service alleges EU nuclear weapons development talks
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%36%
On April 2, 2026, the Russian SVR claimed that EU leaders were discussing developing nuclear weapons capabilities, aiming to fracture US-EU relations and portray the EU as acting against US nuclear interests. This nuclear rhetoric increased geopolitical tensions but did not indicate an imminent Russian nuclear test, contributing to market uncertainty and price drops.
Russian forces launch extensive missile and drone strikes on Ukraine
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%37%
On April 2-3, Russia launched a large-scale missile and drone attack on Ukraine, focusing on conventional military targets. Despite the scale, there was no indication of nuclear testing or nuclear weapon use, which contributed to a sharp decline in market prices reflecting reduced expectations of a nuclear test.
Russia claims Germany could build nuclear bomb in 30 days
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
Russia made explosive claims alleging Germany could develop nuclear weapons capability within 30 days, escalating nuclear tensions and contributing to market concerns about rapid nuclear proliferation.
SVR makes baseless accusations against UK and France
The SVR accused the UK and France of attempting to transfer a 'dirty bomb' or nuclear weapon to Ukraine, a baseless claim used by the Kremlin to fracture US-EU relations and escalate nuclear rhetoric.
Russian military strikes intensify in Ukraine without nuclear escalation
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%40%
Russian forces launched numerous missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on April 2-3, 2026, but there was no indication of nuclear weapon use or testing. This conventional military activity further reduced market expectations of a Russian nuclear test.
Russia launches massive missile and drone strike on Ukraine including nuclear-capable missile
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
On April 2, 2026, Russia conducted a large-scale missile and drone attack on Ukraine, using a nuclear-capable intermediate-range ballistic missile. While this demonstrated Russia's nuclear-capable strike capability, it was not a nuclear test, contributing to market price drops as fears of an actual nuclear test diminished.
No credible reports of Russia conducting nuclear test amid heightened tensions
December 31, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
Despite military escalations and deployment of nuclear-capable weapons, no credible reports or confirmations emerged of Russia conducting a nuclear test during the analysis window. This absence of evidence led to a significant market reassessment and price decline for the likelihood of a nuclear test by Russia by the listed dates.
Russia conducts strategic nuclear missile drills in Siberia
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%40%
On April 2, 2026, Russia held regular exercises of its strategic nuclear forces in Siberia to test combat readiness and send warning signals to the West amid high tensions. These drills were widely reported but did not involve any nuclear detonations, reducing the likelihood of an imminent nuclear test and causing market prices to drop sharply.
Russian strategic missile forces conduct nuclear-capable drills in Siberia
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
On April 2, 2026, Russia held drills involving Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads. These exercises tested combat readiness and served as a warning to the West amid high tensions but did not involve any nuclear test detonation. This reassured markets that while Russia was signaling strength, it was not conducting a nuclear test.
Russia deploys nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles but no nuclear test reported
December 31, 2026 plunges to 13%37%
Russia announced the active service deployment of nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles in Belarus, increasing nuclear tensions. However, no nuclear test was conducted or reported, contributing to the market's reassessment and price drop for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Russia holds strategic nuclear missile drills in Siberia
December 31, 2026 plunges to 9%41%
Russia conducted regular exercises of its strategic nuclear forces in Siberia to test combat-readiness amid heightened tensions with NATO over Ukraine, contributing to nuclear escalation concerns.
Russian forces launch missile and drone strikes on Ukraine, no nuclear test
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%37%
On April 2-3, Russian forces launched a large missile and drone strike campaign against Ukraine, focusing on conventional military targets. There were no reports or credible indications of a nuclear test by Russia during these operations, contributing to the market's decline in nuclear test probability.
Russia Launches Long-Range Missile and Drone Strike Against Ukraine
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
Russia launched 10 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, 25 Kh-101 cruise missiles, two Iskander-K cruise missiles, and 542 drones toward Ukraine, escalating the conflict and increasing nuclear risk perceptions.
Russia evacuates staff from Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant amid escalating conflict
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%39%
Rosatom evacuated hundreds of Russian personnel from the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran following US-Israeli strikes near the facility, raising concerns about nuclear safety but no nuclear test by Russia. This event highlighted risks to Russian-linked nuclear facilities but did not indicate any nuclear detonation by Russia, contributing to market price declines on test likelihood.
Russian personnel at Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant face mounting risks amid regional strikes
September 30, 2026 plunges to 13%36%
Ongoing strikes near Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant, where Russian staff are present, raised concerns about nuclear safety but did not involve any nuclear detonation by Russia. This situation underscored the risks of nuclear facilities in conflict zones without indicating a Russian nuclear test, influencing market sentiment downward.
Russia holds regular exercises of its strategic nuclear forces in Siberia
December 31, 2026 plunges to 13%37%
Russia conducted strategic nuclear missile drills in Siberia, signaling combat-readiness testing and warning signals to NATO, which reduced speculation about a nuclear test by Russia.
Iran claims multiple nuclear facility attacks in March 2026
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%41%
Iran reported three attacks on its nuclear facilities in March 2026, further escalating regional nuclear tensions and contributing to market concerns about nuclear instability.
Russian Strategic Missile Forces Hold Drills in Siberia
Russia's strategic missile forces conducted regular combat-readiness exercises in Siberia using the Yars intercontinental ballistic missile system. The routine nature of these non-destructive drills reassured the market that Russia was continuing standard deterrence exercises rather than escalating to live nuclear detonations, causing the perceived probability of a nuclear test to drop sharply.
Russia launches missile and drone strikes against Ukraine
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
Russian forces launched 10 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, 25 Kh-101 cruise missiles, two Iskander-K cruise missiles, and 542 drones toward Ukraine, escalating the conflict and increasing nuclear risk perceptions.
Russia requests ceasefire to evacuate staff from Iranian nuclear plant
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
Russia's state nuclear corporation Rosatom announced plans to evacuate about 200 Russian personnel from the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran, requesting a ceasefire from the US and Israel during the evacuation. This highlighted Russia's involvement in nuclear infrastructure abroad but did not indicate any nuclear test by Russia itself, contributing to market skepticism about an imminent test.
Iran claims three nuclear facility attacks in March 2026
December 31, 2026 plunges to 10%41%
Iran's claim of multiple attacks on its nuclear facilities in March 2026 heightened regional nuclear tensions and may have influenced perceptions of nuclear readiness among Russia and its allies.
US and Israel intensify campaign against Iran's nuclear program
The US and Israel launched a coordinated campaign targeting Iran's nuclear infrastructure, including the Natanz facility, escalating tensions in the region. This heightened nuclear risk perception likely influenced the market's price movements across all outcomes.
Iran's nuclear breakout time measured in days
Iran's nuclear program was reported to have a breakout time measured not in months but in days, indicating rapid advancement. This heightened nuclear risk perception likely influenced the market's price movements across all outcomes.
Russia Evacuates Staff from Iranian Bushehr Nuclear Plant Amid US-Israeli Attacks
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
Russia announced it would evacuate approximately 200 staff from the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran, which Russia built, as the US and Israel conducted strikes on the facility. This event caused a significant price drop to 2% for the June 30, 2026 outcome.
Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces Hold Combat-Readiness Drills in Siberia
Russia's strategic missile forces conducted routine exercises in Siberia using the Yars intercontinental ballistic missile system to test combat readiness. The focus on standard deterrence drills rather than live nuclear testing led to a sharp drop in the perceived probability of an actual nuclear test.
Rosatom warns of worsening security situation at Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant
Rosatom reported ongoing strikes at Iran's Bushehr nuclear facility, putting Russian personnel at risk and raising concerns about nuclear safety, though not a Russian nuclear test.
Russia attacks Iran's Bushehr nuclear facility with heavy tanks and artillery
Russia launched an attack on Iran's Bushehr nuclear facility using heavy tanks and artillery, causing a major fire and significantly increasing nuclear risk perceptions.
Ukrainian drone strikes damage Russian military infrastructure, no nuclear test reported
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%37%
On April 2-3, Ukrainian forces launched extensive drone and missile strikes against Russian military targets in Ukraine, including damage to Russian port facilities. These conventional military developments underscored ongoing conflict but did not involve or suggest any Russian nuclear test, reinforcing market doubts about such an event.
Russia conducts strategic nuclear missile drills in Siberia
December 31, 2026 plunges to 9%41%
The same drills reported on April 2, 2026, also impacted the December 31, 2026 market, as the exercises were interpreted as routine military readiness rather than preparation for a nuclear test, leading to a sharp decline in the perceived probability of a test within the year.
Market reacts to lack of nuclear test reports, prices drop further
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%40%
Following the continued absence of any nuclear test by Russia and no credible claims or evidence, market prices for the September 30 and June 30, 2026 outcomes dropped sharply, reflecting diminished expectations of a test within these timeframes.
No Evidence of Russian Nuclear Test Amid Heightened Military Activity
December 31, 2026 plunges to 10%36%
Despite intense military operations and drone strikes in early April 2026, including attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, there was no credible reporting of a Russian nuclear test. This absence of evidence contributed to the market's sharp decline in the probability of a Russian nuclear test by the end of 2026.
Russia warns US and Israel to stop attacks on Bushehr nuclear plant
June 30, 2026 plunges to 1%49%
Russia issued a statement strongly condemning attacks on the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran, where hundreds of Russian personnel are stationed, raising concerns about radioactive contamination risks.
Russian Strategic Missile Forces Hold Drills in Siberia
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%35%
The deployment of Yars ICBMs in Siberia for combat-readiness drills without any explosive detonations reassured the market that Russia's nuclear activities remained limited to non-testing maneuvers, causing the December 31, 2026 option to plummet.
Russian crude oil prices surge amid ongoing conflict, no nuclear test signals
September 30, 2026 plunges to 8%42%
Russian Urals crude oil prices hit a 13-year high, reflecting economic pressures but no signs of nuclear testing activity. The market further discounted the likelihood of a nuclear test by September 30, 2026, as no credible reports of nuclear detonations or preparations surfaced.
Russian nuclear missile forces hold drills in Siberia
December 31, 2026 plunges to 14%36%
On April 2, 2026, Russia conducted regular strategic nuclear forces exercises in Siberia to test combat readiness and send warning signals to the West. These drills were routine and did not constitute a nuclear test, influencing market confidence downward.
Russian Strategic Missile Forces Conduct Yars ICBM Drills in Siberia
Russia's Defence Ministry announced that its strategic missile forces conducted drills in Siberia involving camouflaged movements of Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles. While demonstrating nuclear readiness, the focus on mobile drills rather than explosive testing signaled that Russia was not moving toward an immediate physical nuclear detonation, causing the probability of a test by the 2026 deadlines to drop sharply.
Russia requests ceasefire as it evacuates staff from Bushehr nuclear plant
June 30, 2026 plunges to 1%49%
Rosatom head Alexei Likhachev announced Russia would ask U.S. and Israel to ensure a ceasefire while evacuating about 200 Russian staff from the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran, where Russia built the reactor.
No credible reports of Russian nuclear test emerge amid ongoing conflict
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
Despite heightened tensions and nuclear rhetoric in early April 2026, no credible reporting or evidence surfaced indicating that Russia conducted a nuclear test. This lack of confirmation led to a sharp decline in market prices for the likelihood of a nuclear test by both September and December 2026.
Russia coordinates evacuation of staff from Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant amid US-Israeli strikes
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
Russia announced plans to evacuate about 200 personnel from the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran, requesting ceasefire adherence from the US and Israel during the evacuation. This highlighted Russia's focus on protecting its nuclear-related personnel abroad rather than conducting nuclear tests, reducing market expectations of a Russian nuclear test.
Russia Conducts Strategic Nuclear Drills in Siberia Amid High Tensions
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%41%
Simultaneous with the December contract drop, the September contract fell from 50% to 9% as the Siberian Yars missile drills confirmed that Russia's nuclear activities remained limited to non-detonation readiness exercises.
Russian Foreign Intelligence Service accuses EU leaders of nuclear weapons development plans
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%39%
On April 2, 2026, the Russian SVR claimed that some EU leaders were discussing developing nuclear weapons production capabilities, aiming to fracture US-EU relations. This baseless accusation increased nuclear tension rhetoric but did not indicate any imminent Russian nuclear test, contributing to market skepticism.
Russian Strategic Missile Forces Conduct Yars ICBM Drills in Siberia
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%35%
The Russian Defence Ministry announced routine strategic drills involving mobile Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles in Siberia. The focus on standard combat-readiness maneuvers rather than live explosive testing signaled that Russia was sticking to conventional deterrence postures, causing the probability of an actual nuclear test to drop sharply.
Russia Claims Control of Luhansk Region Amid Ongoing Ukraine Conflict
December 31, 2026 plunges to 10%41%
On April 2, Russia's Defense Ministry claimed full control of Luhansk, a claim denied by Ukraine, reflecting ongoing conventional conflict rather than nuclear escalation. This contributed to market reassessment of Russia's nuclear test likelihood, lowering it due to focus on conventional warfare.
Russian missile and drone strikes intensify in Ukraine, no nuclear test reported
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%40%
Russian forces launched extensive missile and drone attacks on Ukraine, but no nuclear detonations were reported or attributed to Russia. This conventional military escalation did not increase the probability of a nuclear test, contributing to further price declines.
Russia asks US and Israel to enforce cease‑fire as it evacuates staff from Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant
Russia announced it would request a cease‑fire from the United States and Israel while evacuating Rosatom staff from Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant. The announcement shifted market sentiment away from a Russian nuclear test, pushing the “Yes” probability for a test down sharply across all listed dates.
Russia-Linked Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant in Iran Faces Growing Risks From Regional War
Reports highlighted that the Russian-built Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran was increasingly caught in the crossfire of the US-Israel-Iran conflict, shifting strategic focus toward Middle Eastern nuclear security rather than Russian domestic testing.
Russia deploys nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles in Belarus amid Ukraine conflict
September 30, 2026 drops to 46%5%
On April 1, 2026, Russia announced that its nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system had entered active service in Belarus, signaling a strategic military escalation. This deployment raised concerns about potential nuclear use but did not constitute a nuclear test, leading to initial market uncertainty reflected in prices around this date.
Russia completes design of 'Nucleon' nuclear engine for space exploration
September 30, 2026 drops to 46%5%
On April 1, Russia announced completion of the preliminary design for the 'Nucleon' nuclear power plant for space applications, signaling nuclear technology development focused on peaceful space exploration rather than weapons testing. This event did not indicate any nuclear test activity, contributing to market skepticism about imminent Russian nuclear tests.
Russia Continues Information Campaigns and Nuclear Rhetoric Without Conducting Physical Tests
Reports highlighted that Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) and the Kremlin continued to leverage nuclear escalation rhetoric and baseless accusations to fracture Western alliances, rather than preparing for or conducting actual physical nuclear tests. This lack of concrete testing activity led to a sharp drop in the perceived probability of a test occurring by any of the 2026 deadlines.
Russian forces continue military operations without nuclear test indications
September 30, 2026 plunges to 13%38%
Russian military activity in Ukraine continued with drone strikes and ground offensives, but no credible reports emerged of nuclear testing. This maintained market skepticism about imminent Russian nuclear tests, contributing to price declines.
U.S. intelligence reports Russia modernizing nuclear weapons amid failed tests
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
The U.S. 2026 Annual Threat Assessment highlighted Russia's ongoing nuclear modernization despite multiple failed tests, signaling increased nuclear capabilities but no confirmed nuclear test. This tempered market expectations for an imminent test, causing a sharp price drop.
White House Declares Iran Mission Objectives as US-Israel War Continues
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
The White House reaffirmed its focus on preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons during the ongoing conflict, shifting geopolitical focus and highlighting that nuclear tensions were centered on the Middle East rather than an imminent Russian test.
Russia launches 700 drone strike series against Ukraine
Russian forces launched a large-scale drone attack on Ukraine, intensifying the conflict and raising nuclear escalation concerns, leading to a sharp decline in market confidence.
U.S. and Israeli nuclear strikes on Iran's nuclear infrastructure
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%40%
In February 2026, the U.S. and Israel struck Iran's nuclear facilities, raising nuclear tensions in the Middle East and prompting Russia to issue nuclear threats, contributing to market volatility.
U.S. Space Command highlights Russia's alleged nuclear anti-satellite weapon in wargame
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
On April 1, 2026, U.S. Space Command publicly discussed a hypothetical Russian nuclear anti-satellite weapon during a wargame exercise, emphasizing the threat but without any actual nuclear test by Russia. This heightened awareness of Russia's nuclear capabilities in space increased market uncertainty but did not indicate an imminent test, contributing to a price drop as the market reassessed the likelihood of a test.
Russia intensifies military strikes in Ukraine without nuclear escalation
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%37%
Russian forces launched numerous missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on April 2-3, but there were no indications of nuclear weapon use or testing. The ongoing conventional conflict and absence of nuclear tests contributed to a sharp drop in market prices for nuclear test likelihood.
US State Department reports no large-scale increase in Russian nuclear warheads
December 31, 2026 plunges to 11%39%
In March 2026, the US State Department confirmed there were no indications of a large-scale increase in Russia's nuclear warheads, signaling no imminent nuclear test. This official assessment contributed to a sharp drop in market prices for a Russian nuclear test by the end of 2026 and September 2026.
NASA Launches Artemis 2 Mission to Orbit Moon Amid Ongoing Iran War
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%46%
The launch of the Artemis 2 mission on April 1, 2026, highlighted a period where global attention and strategic focus remained heavily anchored on space exploration and the conventional conflict in Iran, rather than Russian nuclear testing.
Russia completes design of nuclear-powered space engine 'Nucleon'
September 30, 2026 drops to 46%5%
Russia announced completion of the preliminary design for the 'Nucleon' nuclear power plant for space applications, emphasizing peaceful nuclear technology development rather than weapons testing. This event did not suggest a nuclear test but was part of Russia's nuclear technology advancements.
Prediction market odds for Russian nuclear tests collapse across all 2026 deadlines
With no signs of Russia preparing or executing an immediate nuclear test following the expiration of the New START treaty, market confidence in a 2026 test plummeted, causing prices for all three target dates to drop to near-zero or low double-digit levels.
Russia completes design of 'Nucleon' nuclear engine for space exploration
December 31, 2026 dips to 48%2%
On April 1, Russia announced the completion of the preliminary design for the 'Nucleon' nuclear power plant intended for space applications, signaling a focus on peaceful nuclear technology rather than weapons testing. This development likely reassured markets that Russia was not preparing for a nuclear test, contributing to the decline in test probability prices.
Russia Completes Preliminary Design of 'Nucleon' Space Nuclear Power Plant
Russia announced the completion of the preliminary design for the 'Nucleon' space complex, which utilizes a nuclear power plant for deep space exploration. This shifted public and market attention toward peaceful or space-based nuclear technology rather than imminent weapons testing.
U.S. and Israel launch strikes on Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant
U.S.-Israeli military action against Iran's Bushehr nuclear facility raised nuclear escalation risks, contributing to market volatility and price drops across all outcomes.
U.S. and Israeli Strikes on Iran and Artemis 2 Launch Shift Global Focus
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%46%
The ongoing war in Iran, which began with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, dominated global security attention. This shift in geopolitical focus, combined with the successful launch of the Artemis 2 lunar mission, reduced immediate market fears of a Russian nuclear test, causing the odds to plummet.
No credible reports emerge of Russian nuclear test amid ongoing Ukraine conflict
December 31, 2026 plunges to 14%36%
Despite heightened nuclear rhetoric and military tensions, no credible reporting or evidence surfaced indicating Russia conducted or planned a nuclear test by early April 2026. This absence of action led to a sharp decline in market prices for all test date outcomes.
Trump's Call to Restart Nuclear Testing Clarified as Referring to Delivery Vehicles Rather Than Detonations
A public post by Donald Trump calling to test nuclear weapons 'on an equal basis' with Russia and China was clarified by experts as likely referring to testing nuclear-propelled delivery vehicles rather than explosive nuclear detonations, easing fears of an imminent resumption of explosive nuclear testing.
EU imposes comprehensive export controls limiting Russia's access to nuclear-related goods
September 30, 2026 plunges to 14%37%
On April 1, 2026, the European Commission confirmed export control restrictions targeting Russian nuclear entities like Rosatom, limiting Russia's access to nuclear technology and materials. This policy action reduced the likelihood of Russia conducting a nuclear test soon due to constrained resources and international pressure.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin issues frequent nuclear threats amid West Asia conflict
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
Putin's repeated nuclear threats and Russia's warning that the West Asia conflict could escalate to nuclear levels heightened global tensions but did not translate into an actual nuclear test, leading markets to reassess the likelihood of such an event occurring soon.
Russia launches 700 drone strike series against Ukraine
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%41%
A massive drone attack by Russian forces on Ukraine on March 31-April 1 significantly disrupted Russian military momentum and reduced speculation about nuclear escalation.
Russian forces launch prolonged drone strikes on Ukraine
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
On April 1, 2026, Russian forces conducted extensive drone strikes against Ukraine, launching 700 drones in two waves. This military activity increased tensions but did not involve nuclear testing, contributing to market reassessment of the likelihood of a nuclear test by Russia.
Former CIA Director discusses nuclear use concerns by Russia
William Burns, former CIA director, discussed in an April 4 podcast that people within the administration were concerned about nuclear use by Russia in late 2022, reinforcing nuclear threat perceptions.
France announces increase in nuclear weapons stockpile citing global threats
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%39%
On April 1, 2026, French President Emmanuel Macron announced France would increase its nuclear weapons stockpile for the first time in decades, citing threats from Russia's war on Ukraine and other global security concerns. This announcement heightened nuclear tensions in Europe but did not signal a Russian nuclear test, influencing market sentiment downward.
US Space Command wargame focuses on Russia's hypothetical nuclear anti-satellite weapon use
December 31, 2026 plunges to 10%40%
On March 23, 2026, US Space Command conducted a tabletop exercise simulating Russia's use of a nuclear anti-satellite weapon, highlighting strategic nuclear threats in space. This scenario raised awareness of Russia's nuclear capabilities but did not involve an actual test, contributing to market uncertainty and price drops.
Russia completes preliminary design of nuclear rocket engine project
December 31, 2026 dips to 46%4%
On April 1, Russia announced completion of the preliminary design for a nuclear rocket engine intended for space missions, signaling focus on peaceful nuclear technology development rather than nuclear weapons testing. This contributed to market confidence that no nuclear test would occur soon.
No credible reports of Russian nuclear test emerge amid heightened tensions
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%41%
Despite increased military activity and deployment of nuclear-capable missiles by Russia, no credible news or official confirmation of a nuclear test by Russia was reported during the analysis window. This absence of evidence led to a sharp decline in market prices for the likelihood of a Russian nuclear test by September 30, 2026.
Russian Security Council deputy chairman warns of nuclear escalation risks in Middle East
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%1%
Dmitry Medvedev warned that US actions against Iran could increase the likelihood of nuclear conflict in the Middle East, raising global nuclear tensions but not indicating any Russian nuclear test activity.
Putin’s withdrawal from CTBT and readiness for nuclear testing noted but no test conducted
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%39%
Russia officially withdrew from the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty in 2023 and has indicated readiness to resume nuclear testing. However, as of early April 2026, no nuclear test had been conducted or credibly reported, which led to a sharp market decline in the probability of a test by the end of 2026.
Russian Foreign Intelligence Service accuses EU leaders of nuclear weapons development plans
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%39%
On April 1, 2026, the Russian SVR claimed that EU leaders were discussing developing nuclear weapons capabilities, aiming to fracture US-EU relations and portray the EU as acting against US nuclear interests. This nuclear rhetoric increased market uncertainty but did not indicate an imminent Russian nuclear test, contributing to price declines.
Polymarket Quietly Removes and Archives Nuclear Detonation Betting Markets Following Public Backlash
Following intense public outrage and political scrutiny over the ethics of betting on global annihilation, Polymarket quietly archived and removed its nuclear detonation markets. This platform-wide action caused the implied probabilities for all listed deadlines to crash to near-zero levels as the contracts were retired.
Market reacts to absence of Russian nuclear test despite heightened nuclear rhetoric
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
On April 1, 2026, market prices for the probability of a Russian nuclear test dropped sharply as no test occurred despite increased nuclear escalation rhetoric and accusations. This indicated market consensus that Russia was unlikely to conduct a nuclear test imminently.
US‑Russia nuclear arms treaty expires, fueling test‑run speculation
December 31, 2026 plunges to 8%42%
Reports that the last remaining nuclear arms treaty between the U.S. and Russia expired on 26 February 2026 raised concerns of an unrestricted arms race, briefly spiking the “Yes” price in early April before subsequent clarifications that Russia remained committed to treaty limits, causing the price to tumble.
Russian forces launch massive drone strikes on Ukraine amid ongoing conflict
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%41%
Russian military activity intensified with 700 drones launched against Ukraine on March 31-April 1, 2026, highlighting ongoing conventional conflict rather than nuclear escalation. This military focus without nuclear testing news contributed to market price drops on nuclear test likelihood.
Russia Focuses on Information Warfare and Accusations Rather Than Imminent Nuclear Testing
Instead of preparing for physical nuclear tests, Russia's state apparatus focused on information campaigns, such as accusing European nations of seeking nuclear capabilities. This shift in focus away from active testing led to a sharp drop in the perceived probability of a Russian nuclear test occurring in 2026.
US NATO war games predict near-certain Russian nuclear response if defeated
December 31, 2026 plunges to 10%40%
US NATO exercises in February 2026 concluded that Russia would likely resort to nuclear weapons if facing military defeat, with a 0.99 probability of nuclear salvo in conflict scenarios involving Kaliningrad, Crimea, and strategic strikes. This heightened fears of nuclear escalation but did not indicate an imminent test, leading markets to reassess the timing of any Russian nuclear action.
Russian Foreign Intelligence Service accuses EU of nuclear weapons ambitions
September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%41%
On April 8, 2026, the Russian SVR claimed that EU leaders were discussing developing nuclear weapons capabilities, aiming to fracture US-EU relations. This nuclear rhetoric increased tensions but did not indicate any imminent Russian nuclear test, contributing to market skepticism about such a test occurring soon.
No credible reports of Russian nuclear test activity despite military operations
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
During the week ending March 31, 2026, Russian forces were active in Ukraine but there were no credible reports or indications of nuclear testing preparations or detonations. This lack of evidence contributed to the market lowering the probability of a Russian nuclear test by the June, September, and December 2026 deadlines.
Russian military transport plane crashes in Crimea, killing all 29 aboard
September 30, 2026 drops to 46%5%
On March 31, a Russian Navy general and 28 others died in a military plane crash in Crimea, highlighting ongoing military challenges but with no connection to nuclear testing. This event did not increase expectations of a nuclear test, contributing to stable or declining market probabilities.
U.S. and Israeli Strikes on Iran's Nuclear Infrastructure
The 2026 strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities increased global nuclear tensions and likely influenced market perceptions of potential nuclear escalation involving Russia.
Russia-Ukraine War: Russian forces gain Ukrainian territory
Russian forces gained 17 square miles of Ukrainian territory during March 10–April 7, 2026, according to ISW data, escalating the conflict and raising nuclear risk perceptions.
Russia claims Germany could build nuclear bomb in 30 days
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
Russia made explosive claims alleging Germany could develop nuclear weapons capability within 30 days, which was widely reported as a provocative nuclear threat and diplomatic escalation.
French Air Force General warns Russia may test NATO strength in 2028-2029
General Dominique Tardif, deputy commander of French Air Force, stated that Russia might test NATO's strength between 2028 and 2029, heightening nuclear tensions and influencing market sentiment.
Ukrainian forces shoot down 89.9% of Russian drones in March 2026
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
Ukrainian air defenses destroyed 89.9% of Russian missiles and drones launched in March 2026, showcasing Ukraine's growing air defense capabilities and effectiveness against Russian drone campaigns.
Analysis highlights Russia's nuclear influence through global reactor exports
June 30, 2026 plunges to 3%47%
On March 31, 2026, analysis noted Russia's state nuclear corporation Rosatom's extensive export of nuclear technology worldwide, establishing political influence but not indicating nuclear testing. This reinforced perceptions of Russia's nuclear capabilities but did not increase expectations of a test, contributing to market price declines.
Russian military advances and setbacks reported in Ukraine conflict
September 30, 2026 dips to 50%1%
Russian forces made advances near six settlements while Ukrainian forces regained control near others, indicating ongoing conventional conflict without nuclear escalation. This maintained uncertainty but did not increase likelihood of a nuclear test, contributing to stable market prices early in the window.
Ukrainian drone strikes kill 34,000 Russian troops in March 2026
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
Ukrainian drone attacks killed or wounded 33,988 Russian servicemembers in March 2026, demonstrating significant Ukrainian drone lethality and complicating Russia's battlefield operations.
Researchers at Tomsk Polytechnic University initiate pilot production of miniature nuclear batteries
On March 31, 2026, Russian researchers announced pilot-scale production of long-life miniature nuclear batteries for medical and technological applications, indicating peaceful nuclear technology development rather than weapons testing. This news did not suggest any nuclear test activity, contributing to market skepticism about a test occurring soon.
U.S. and Israel strike Iran's nuclear infrastructure
December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%
The U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities in February 2026 intensified nuclear tensions, raising fears of a broader nuclear conflict and influencing perceptions of Russia's nuclear posture.
Russia emphasizes nuclear deterrence amid ongoing Ukraine conflict
December 31, 2026 dips to 49%1%
On March 31, 2026, analyses highlighted Russia's reliance on nuclear deterrence as part of its broader military strategy in Ukraine, but no indication of imminent nuclear testing emerged. This reinforced market views that while nuclear rhetoric was high, actual testing was unlikely in the near term, contributing to initial price declines.
Heightened nuclear rhetoric but no indication of imminent Russian nuclear test
December 31, 2026 plunges to 14%36%
Multiple analyses and reports highlighted Russia's nuclear deterrence posture and rhetoric amid the Ukraine conflict, but no credible evidence emerged of preparations or intent to conduct a nuclear test. This contributed to a sharp drop in market prices for all test date outcomes as the risk was reassessed downward.
Russia's nuclear posture discussed amid ongoing Ukraine conflict
Analyses highlighted Russia's continued reliance on nuclear deterrence and conventional military attrition in Ukraine, with no indication of imminent nuclear testing. This reinforced market skepticism about a nuclear test occurring soon.
French General Dominique Tardif Warns Russia May Test NATO Strength by 2028-2029
An interview with a high-ranking French officer suggested that any direct military confrontation or testing of NATO's resolve by Russia is projected years into the future, reducing the perceived threat of an immediate nuclear test in 2026.
Russia signs new mutual-defense treaty with North Korea
June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%
Russia rewarded North Korea for supporting its Ukraine war with a new defense pact, including dropping opposition to North Korea's nuclear program and providing missile and submarine support, signaling increased nuclear cooperation.
Russian military plane crashes in Crimea killing 29, no nuclear test reported
September 30, 2026 drops to 46%5%
On March 31, a Russian Navy general and 28 others died in a military transport plane crash in Crimea. This tragic event was widely reported but involved no nuclear test or nuclear detonation by Russia, reducing market expectations for a nuclear test.
Russia begins pilot-scale production of miniature nuclear batteries
Tomsk Polytechnic University researchers initiated pilot-scale production of betavoltaic nuclear batteries, marking a step in long-duration energy systems. This development may have contributed to increased nuclear-related market sentiment, though it does not constitute a nuclear test.
No credible reports of Russian nuclear test preparations despite military activity
December 31, 2026 dips to 46%4%
Despite ongoing Russian military operations in Ukraine and increased missile and drone strikes, there were no credible reports or evidence indicating Russia was preparing for or conducting a nuclear test by March 31, 2026. This lack of evidence contributed to the market's initial decline in the probability of a nuclear test by the later dates.
Russia Announces Nuclear Deterrence Policy Shift Amid Iran Conflict
Russia's abrupt budget U-turn and renewed assault on Donbas were attributed to oil price rises and strategic decisions, increasing nuclear threat rhetoric and market uncertainty.
Antony Dabila: Nuclear Deterrence Is No Longer Enough
A prominent article by Project Syndicate argued that nuclear deterrence is insufficient in the current geopolitical landscape, contributing to market speculation about nuclear escalation risks.
U.S. and Israel strike Iranian nuclear facilities amid Iran crisis
September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%
The United States and Israel launched strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, including Bushehr, marking a significant escalation in the Iran nuclear crisis and increasing nuclear tensions in the region.
U.S. intelligence reports Russia modernizing nuclear weapons amid failed tests
The 2026 U.S. intelligence assessment highlighted Russia's nuclear modernization efforts despite multiple failed tests of new systems, indicating challenges but no confirmed nuclear detonations. This background informed market expectations of modernization without nuclear testing.
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