Traders assign a 96.3% probability that China will not launch an amphibious invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale PLA sealift mobilization, sustained amphibious exercises, or other verifiable indicators of imminent offensive action in recent months. The most recent major development—a pair of PLA live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait on July 23, 2026—followed routine Taiwanese statements and aligned with established patterns of coercive signaling rather than preparation for full-scale operations. Beijing continues to emphasize gray-zone measures, including expanded China Coast Guard patrols east of Taiwan and diplomatic isolation efforts, while cross-strait economic channels and upcoming U.S.-China summits support short-term stability. US assessments through mid-2026 indicate no fixed unification timeline favoring military action. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden leadership-driven escalation, major provocations, or rapid changes in military readiness before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa Cina invaderà Taiwan entro la fine del 2026?
La Cina invaderà Taiwan entro la fine del 2026?
Sì
$39,582,871 Vol.
$39,582,871 Vol.
Sì
$39,582,871 Vol.
$39,582,871 Vol.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Risolutore
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Risolutore
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Traders assign a 96.3% probability that China will not launch an amphibious invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale PLA sealift mobilization, sustained amphibious exercises, or other verifiable indicators of imminent offensive action in recent months. The most recent major development—a pair of PLA live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait on July 23, 2026—followed routine Taiwanese statements and aligned with established patterns of coercive signaling rather than preparation for full-scale operations. Beijing continues to emphasize gray-zone measures, including expanded China Coast Guard patrols east of Taiwan and diplomatic isolation efforts, while cross-strait economic channels and upcoming U.S.-China summits support short-term stability. US assessments through mid-2026 indicate no fixed unification timeline favoring military action. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden leadership-driven escalation, major provocations, or rapid changes in military readiness before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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