**Traders assign a 93.8% implied probability to “No” because verifiable developments through mid-June 2026 show sustained gray-zone pressure rather than the large-scale mobilization or official rhetoric required for a full invasion of Taiwan by year-end.** Chinese forces conducted 217 air-defense identification zone incursions in May and repeated coast-guard entries near Kinmen and Pratas, yet these numbers remain below prior peaks and lack accompanying amphibious or logistical buildups. The May Trump-Xi summit featured standard warnings on Taiwan without triggering crisis alerts, while Taiwan maintained routine international engagement, including APEC participation, and advanced asymmetric defense programs. Analysts note the logistical and economic barriers to mounting an invasion within the narrow remaining window, reinforcing the market’s assessment that such an offensive is unlikely before 2027.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa Cina invaderà Taiwan entro la fine del 2026?
La Cina invaderà Taiwan entro la fine del 2026?
Sì
$34,731,461 Vol.
$34,731,461 Vol.
Sì
$34,731,461 Vol.
$34,731,461 Vol.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Risolutore
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Risolutore
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
**Traders assign a 93.8% implied probability to “No” because verifiable developments through mid-June 2026 show sustained gray-zone pressure rather than the large-scale mobilization or official rhetoric required for a full invasion of Taiwan by year-end.** Chinese forces conducted 217 air-defense identification zone incursions in May and repeated coast-guard entries near Kinmen and Pratas, yet these numbers remain below prior peaks and lack accompanying amphibious or logistical buildups. The May Trump-Xi summit featured standard warnings on Taiwan without triggering crisis alerts, while Taiwan maintained routine international engagement, including APEC participation, and advanced asymmetric defense programs. Analysts note the logistical and economic barriers to mounting an invasion within the narrow remaining window, reinforcing the market’s assessment that such an offensive is unlikely before 2027.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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