Trader consensus reflects an 87.5% implied probability of no US ally acquiring nuclear weapons before 2027, driven by the absence of concrete proliferation steps among potential candidates like South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Poland, and Saudi Arabia despite heightened regional tensions from North Korean advances and the February 2026 expiration of the New START treaty. US extended deterrence commitments, including planned nuclear submarine deployments near Australia by 2027, continue to reassure allies under the nuclear umbrella, while Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) obligations and domestic political hurdles deter breakouts. Recent US congressional action, such as the March 2026 No Nuclear Weapons for Saudi Arabia Act reintroduced by Senators Markey and Merkley, underscores firm opposition to sensitive nuclear transfers even to key partners. No official announcements, tests, or enrichment escalations have emerged in the past 30 days to shift odds, though Iranian developments or alliance fractures could prompt rapid reassessment ahead of the 2026 NPT review conference.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNUOVO
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31 dic 2026
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Trader consensus reflects an 87.5% implied probability of no US ally acquiring nuclear weapons before 2027, driven by the absence of concrete proliferation steps among potential candidates like South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Poland, and Saudi Arabia despite heightened regional tensions from North Korean advances and the February 2026 expiration of the New START treaty. US extended deterrence commitments, including planned nuclear submarine deployments near Australia by 2027, continue to reassure allies under the nuclear umbrella, while Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) obligations and domestic political hurdles deter breakouts. Recent US congressional action, such as the March 2026 No Nuclear Weapons for Saudi Arabia Act reintroduced by Senators Markey and Merkley, underscores firm opposition to sensitive nuclear transfers even to key partners. No official announcements, tests, or enrichment escalations have emerged in the past 30 days to shift odds, though Iranian developments or alliance fractures could prompt rapid reassessment ahead of the 2026 NPT review conference.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$6,014Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Trader consensus reflects an 87.5% implied probability of no US ally acquiring nuclear weapons before 2027, driven by the absence of concrete proliferation steps among potential candidates like South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Poland, and Saudi Arabia despite heightened regional tensions from North Korean advances and the February 2026 expiration of the New START treaty. US extended deterrence commitments, including planned nuclear submarine deployments near Australia by 2027, continue to reassure allies under the nuclear umbrella, while Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) obligations and domestic political hurdles deter breakouts. Recent US congressional action, such as the March 2026 No Nuclear Weapons for Saudi Arabia Act reintroduced by Senators Markey and Merkley, underscores firm opposition to sensitive nuclear transfers even to key partners. No official announcements, tests, or enrichment escalations have emerged in the past 30 days to shift odds, though Iranian developments or alliance fractures could prompt rapid reassessment ahead of the 2026 NPT review conference.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$6,014Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 87.5% implied probability of no US ally acquiring nuclear weapons before 2027, driven by the absence of concrete proliferation steps among potential candidates like South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Poland, and Saudi Arabia despite heightened regional tensions from North Korean advances and the February 2026 expiration of the New START treaty. US extended deterrence commitments, including planned nuclear submarine deployments near Australia by 2027, continue to reassure allies under the nuclear umbrella, while Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) obligations and domestic political hurdles deter breakouts. Recent US congressional action, such as the March 2026 No Nuclear Weapons for Saudi Arabia Act reintroduced by Senators Markey and Merkley, underscores firm opposition to sensitive nuclear transfers even to key partners. No official announcements, tests, or enrichment escalations have emerged in the past 30 days to shift odds, though Iranian developments or alliance fractures could prompt rapid reassessment ahead of the 2026 NPT review conference.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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