Trader consensus on the low likelihood of a US ally acquiring nuclear weapons before 2027 stems from the absence of active indigenous programs, firm policy commitments under the NPT, and reliance on US extended deterrence despite ongoing debates in capitals like Seoul, Tokyo, and Warsaw. Most allies lack both the political authorization and the compressed timeline needed to complete fissile material production, weaponization, and testing within the next few months. Recent diplomatic steps, such as civil nuclear cooperation talks or European nuclear-sharing proposals, focus on latency or hosted US assets rather than independent arsenals. A realistic shift would require an abrupt NPT withdrawal combined with a crash program in a technically advanced ally, an outcome without precedent on this short horizon and subject to rapid alliance or sanctions countermeasures.