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Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

icon for Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
Mondo·Trump

Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

dic 31

dic 31

10% probabilità
Polymarket

$51,592 Vol.

10% probabilità
Polymarket

$51,592 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". US allies remain bound by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and bilateral security arrangements that emphasize extended deterrence over independent arsenals. Recent public discussions in South Korea, Poland, and Germany have centered on potential nuclear sharing or latency options amid regional threats, yet no ally has initiated or advanced an active weapons program. Official statements from allied leaders continue to affirm nonproliferation commitments, while US policy prioritizes alliance cohesion and opposes new proliferation. The compressed timeline to 2027 leaves insufficient scope for any state to overcome technical, diplomatic, and verification hurdles. These factors sustain strong trader consensus against acquisition.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Volume
$51,592
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". US allies remain bound by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and bilateral security arrangements that emphasize extended deterrence over independent arsenals. Recent public discussions in South Korea, Poland, and Germany have centered on potential nuclear sharing or latency options amid regional threats, yet no ally has initiated or advanced an active weapons program. Official statements from allied leaders continue to affirm nonproliferation commitments, while US policy prioritizes alliance cohesion and opposes new proliferation. The compressed timeline to 2027 leaves insufficient scope for any state to overcome technical, diplomatic, and verification hurdles. These factors sustain strong trader consensus against acquisition.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Volume
$51,592
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

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Domande frequenti

"Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni "Sì" o "No" in base a se credono che questo evento accadrà. La probabilità attuale aggregata è 10% per "Yes". Ad esempio, se "Sì" è quotato a 10¢, il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 10% che questo evento si verifichi. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?" ha generato $51.6K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Nov 13, 2025. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?", scegli semplicemente se ritieni che la risposta sia "Sì" o "No". Ogni lato ha un prezzo corrente che riflette la probabilità implicita del mercato. Inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se compri azioni "Sì" e l'esito si risolve come "Sì", ogni azione paga $1. Se si risolve come "No", le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

La probabilità attuale per "Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?" è 10% per "Yes". Questo significa che la comunità Polymarket attualmente ritiene che ci sia una probabilità di 10% che questo evento si verifichi. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale basandosi sulle operazioni effettive, fornendo un segnale continuamente aggiornato di ciò che il mercato si aspetta accada.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.