Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty that President Vladimir Putin will remain in office through June 30, 2026, driven by his constitutionally secured six-year term ending in 2030 and the absence of any verifiable political or health catalysts in recent weeks to prompt resignation, removal, or incapacitation. Recurring unconfirmed health rumors, such as a deleted Kremlin video of Putin coughing in early March, have failed to gain traction amid routine public appearances, including meetings with officials as recently as mid-April. Putin's firm control over Russian institutions, suppressed opposition, and lack of elite dissent or coup signals underpin this positioning, though low-probability scenarios like sudden illness, inner-circle betrayal, or assassination could still shift outcomes before resolution.