Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a Bank of Russia key rate decrease at the April 2026 meeting, with 95.8% implied probability reflecting the central bank's easing trajectory amid sustained disinflation. Following 50 basis point cuts to 15.50% on February 13 and 15.00% on March 20, annual inflation held steady at 5.9% as of mid-March after February's sharp slowdown from January's acceleration, aligning with the bank's forecast of 4.5-5.5% for 2026. This skin-in-the-game pricing anticipates further monetary policy normalization, though elevated household inflation expectations near 13.4% or rouble depreciation could prompt a hold if pro-inflationary pressures reemerge ahead of the late-April Board decision.