This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent May 2026 CPI data showed headline inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year, the highest since 2023, with energy prices surging 23.5% amid Middle East geopolitical tensions. This reacceleration, alongside core CPI at 2.9%, has shifted trader focus toward upside risks for 2026 peaks, as forecasters now project fourth-quarter-over-fourth-quarter headline CPI near 3.5% or higher. The Fed's wait-and-see stance ahead of the June 17 FOMC meeting, combined with potential passthrough from elevated oil and shelter costs, supports elevated market-implied odds for inflation exceeding 4% before year-end. June CPI and upcoming labor data remain key near-term catalysts that could influence rate expectations and further reprice probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Recent May 2026 CPI data showed headline inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year, the highest since 2023, with energy prices surging 23.5% amid Middle East geopolitical tensions. This reacceleration, alongside core CPI at 2.9%, has shifted trader focus toward upside risks for 2026 peaks, as forecasters now project fourth-quarter-over-fourth-quarter headline CPI near 3.5% or higher. The Fed's wait-and-see stance ahead of the June 17 FOMC meeting, combined with potential passthrough from elevated oil and shelter costs, supports elevated market-implied odds for inflation exceeding 4% before year-end. June CPI and upcoming labor data remain key near-term catalysts that could influence rate expectations and further reprice probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
May 12 2026
Fast food chains launch value menus amid high food prices
Above 4% surges to 73%32%
Major fast food chains like Wendy's, Taco Bell, and McDonald's introduced new value menus in May 2026 to attract cost-conscious consumers facing 4.1% higher dining costs. This consumer response to persistent food price inflation supported market expectations for inflation above 4% but limited expectations for very high inflation.
May 12 2026
Wendy’s launches $4 Biggie Deals menu amid rising food prices
Above 4% surges to 97%23%
Wendy’s introduced a new value menu to attract cost-conscious consumers facing rising grocery and food prices, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures and influencing market expectations for inflation above 4%.
May 5 2026
PepsiCo cuts prices on snacks to regain customers amid inflation pressures
Above 4.5% surges to 75%34%
PepsiCo announced price cuts on popular snack brands to address weakened demand caused by years of price hikes. This move reflects consumer sensitivity to inflation and may influence inflation expectations, particularly for outcomes above 4.5% and 5%.
May 5 2026
PepsiCo announces price cuts amid weakening demand due to inflation
Above 5% jumps to 35%7%
PepsiCo cut prices on popular snack products to regain customers frustrated by years of price hikes, signaling consumer sensitivity to inflation and impacting market inflation expectations, particularly for higher inflation outcomes.
Apr 15 2026
U.S. wholesale prices surge as Iran war escalates energy costs
Above 4% jumps to 48%7%
In April 2026, wholesale prices surged 4% year-over-year, driven by an 8.5% increase in energy prices due to the Iran war. This surge heightened inflation concerns and influenced market pricing for inflation above 4%.
Amazon announced a 3.5% fuel and logistics surcharge on third-party sellers starting mid-April 2026 due to elevated fuel costs from the ongoing Iran war. Rising fuel and logistics costs contributed to inflationary pressures, influencing market expectations for inflation above 4% and 5%.
Apr 15 2026
Australia’s central bank raises interest rate to 3.85% amid surging inflation
Above 4% jumps to 49%8%
The Reserve Bank of Australia increased its benchmark interest rate after inflation rose to 3.8% for the 12 months through December, signaling persistent inflation pressures. This global inflationary environment influenced market expectations for U.S. inflation outcomes above 4% and 5%.
Apr 3 2026
S&P 500 plunges nearly 5% amid trade war fears and inflation concerns
Above 6% plunges to 10%37%
Stock market declines driven by fears of escalating trade tensions and persistent inflation pressures reflected investor worries about economic growth and inflation control. This contributed to a decline in market confidence for inflation outcomes above 6%, 8%, and 10%.
Mar 17 2026
Hiring slowdown in December challenges Federal Reserve's inflation control efforts
Above 5% jumps to 24%6%
Data showed sluggish hiring and a slight uptick in unemployment, complicating the Fed's dual mandate to control inflation and maximize employment. This increased uncertainty about future interest rate moves, affecting inflation expectations and market pricing for outcomes above 5% and 6%.
Mar 10 2026
US wholesale prices surge 4% amid Iran war driving energy costs higher
Above 4% surges to 32%17%
The Labor Department reported a 4% year-over-year increase in the producer price index in March, the largest in over three years, driven by an 8.5% surge in energy prices due to the Iran war. This heightened inflation concerns and influenced market prices, especially for inflation above 4% and 5%.
Mar 10 2026
Popular super greens supplement recalled amid salmonella outbreak
Above 4% surges to 33%18%
The recall of a popular dietary supplement due to salmonella contamination raised concerns about food safety and potential impacts on food prices, contributing to inflation uncertainty and affecting market inflation expectations.
Mar 10 2026
Hiring slowed in December despite Fed rate cuts
Above 5% jumps to 17%8%
December 2025 jobs data showed a slowdown in hiring with only 50,000 jobs added, defying Federal Reserve efforts to boost the labor market through interest rate cuts. Sluggish hiring and low wage growth tempered inflation expectations, causing fluctuations in market prices for higher inflation thresholds.
Feb 25 2026
Iran war drives up U.S. wholesale energy prices sharply
Above 4% rises to 15%3%
The ongoing war in Iran caused energy prices to surge, pushing wholesale prices up 4% year-over-year in March 2026. This increase in energy costs contributed to inflationary pressures, raising market expectations for inflation outcomes above 4%.
Jan 17 2026
Labor Department delays January jobs report due to government shutdown
Above 4% dips to 9%3%
The partial federal government shutdown delayed the release of the January 2026 jobs report, creating uncertainty about labor market conditions. This uncertainty contributed to volatility in inflation expectations, as labor market strength influences inflation dynamics.
Jan 15 2026
Consumer spending drives U.S. economy growth at fastest pace in two years
Above 4% surges to 33%19%
The Commerce Department reported a 4.4% annualized GDP growth rate in Q3 2025, driven by strong consumer spending. Despite solid growth, inflation remained elevated, influencing market expectations that inflation would stay above 4%.
Jan 14 2026
US voters overwhelmingly oppose taking Greenland by military force
Above 4% dips to 12%2%
Polls revealed nearly 9 in 10 Americans opposed military action to acquire Greenland, reflecting geopolitical tensions and uncertainty. While not directly linked to inflation, such geopolitical risks can influence energy prices and inflation expectations, indirectly affecting market pricing for inflation outcomes.
Dec 9 2025
Grocery price inflation surges with fastest monthly pace since 2022
Above 4.5% jumps to 56%6%
Government data showed food prices rising sharply, with coffee and ground beef prices up nearly 20% and 15.5% respectively year-over-year in December. This defied claims of falling grocery prices and contributed to inflation concerns, supporting market prices for inflation above 4.5% and 5%.
Dec 9 2025
Government shutdown delays January jobs report and other economic data
Above 4% dips to 14%4%
The partial federal government shutdown delayed the release of key economic data including the January jobs report, creating uncertainty about the labor market and inflation trends. This delay contributed to market volatility and cautious inflation expectations.
Dec 4 2025
Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge ticks up in November
Above 4% surges to 33%19%
Consumer prices rose 2.8% in November 2025 from a year earlier, slightly higher than October's 2.7%, indicating inflation remained stubbornly elevated. This data reassured the Fed about the economy's solid footing but suggested inflation would stay above target, supporting higher inflation market prices.
Nov 13 2025
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates three times to counter softer jobs market
Above 4% plunges to 18%29%
In late 2025, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate three times to stimulate the economy amid a slowing labor market. This monetary policy action aimed to support growth but raised concerns about potential inflationary pressures, influencing market expectations for inflation to remain elevated.
Nov 13 2025
Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge ticks up in November amid strong consumer spending
Above 4% plunges to 18%29%
The Commerce Department reported consumer prices rose 2.8% year-over-year in November, slightly higher than October, signaling persistent inflation. Solid consumer spending suggested the economy remained robust, reducing expectations for immediate Fed rate cuts and supporting higher inflation probabilities above 4%.
Nov 13 2025
Wholesale prices surge 4% amid Iran war energy price spike
Above 4% plunges to 18%29%
The Iran war caused energy prices to soar, pushing U.S. wholesale prices up 4% year-over-year in March 2025, the largest increase in over three years. This surge in wholesale prices signaled inflationary pressures that influenced market expectations for higher inflation in 2026, particularly affecting the 'Above 4%' and 'Above 6%' outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent May 2026 CPI data showed headline inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year, the highest since 2023, with energy prices surging 23.5% amid Middle East geopolitical tensions. This reacceleration, alongside core CPI at 2.9%, has shifted trader focus toward upside risks for 2026 peaks, as forecasters now project fourth-quarter-over-fourth-quarter headline CPI near 3.5% or higher. The Fed's wait-and-see stance ahead of the June 17 FOMC meeting, combined with potential passthrough from elevated oil and shelter costs, supports elevated market-implied odds for inflation exceeding 4% before year-end. June CPI and upcoming labor data remain key near-term catalysts that could influence rate expectations and further reprice probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Recent May 2026 CPI data showed headline inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year, the highest since 2023, with energy prices surging 23.5% amid Middle East geopolitical tensions. This reacceleration, alongside core CPI at 2.9%, has shifted trader focus toward upside risks for 2026 peaks, as forecasters now project fourth-quarter-over-fourth-quarter headline CPI near 3.5% or higher. The Fed's wait-and-see stance ahead of the June 17 FOMC meeting, combined with potential passthrough from elevated oil and shelter costs, supports elevated market-implied odds for inflation exceeding 4% before year-end. June CPI and upcoming labor data remain key near-term catalysts that could influence rate expectations and further reprice probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
May 12 2026
Fast food chains launch value menus amid high food prices
Above 4% surges to 73%32%
Major fast food chains like Wendy's, Taco Bell, and McDonald's introduced new value menus in May 2026 to attract cost-conscious consumers facing 4.1% higher dining costs. This consumer response to persistent food price inflation supported market expectations for inflation above 4% but limited expectations for very high inflation.
May 12 2026
Wendy’s launches $4 Biggie Deals menu amid rising food prices
Above 4% surges to 97%23%
Wendy’s introduced a new value menu to attract cost-conscious consumers facing rising grocery and food prices, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures and influencing market expectations for inflation above 4%.
May 5 2026
PepsiCo cuts prices on snacks to regain customers amid inflation pressures
Above 4.5% surges to 75%34%
PepsiCo announced price cuts on popular snack brands to address weakened demand caused by years of price hikes. This move reflects consumer sensitivity to inflation and may influence inflation expectations, particularly for outcomes above 4.5% and 5%.
May 5 2026
PepsiCo announces price cuts amid weakening demand due to inflation
Above 5% jumps to 35%7%
PepsiCo cut prices on popular snack products to regain customers frustrated by years of price hikes, signaling consumer sensitivity to inflation and impacting market inflation expectations, particularly for higher inflation outcomes.
Apr 15 2026
U.S. wholesale prices surge as Iran war escalates energy costs
Above 4% jumps to 48%7%
In April 2026, wholesale prices surged 4% year-over-year, driven by an 8.5% increase in energy prices due to the Iran war. This surge heightened inflation concerns and influenced market pricing for inflation above 4%.
Amazon announced a 3.5% fuel and logistics surcharge on third-party sellers starting mid-April 2026 due to elevated fuel costs from the ongoing Iran war. Rising fuel and logistics costs contributed to inflationary pressures, influencing market expectations for inflation above 4% and 5%.
Apr 15 2026
Australia’s central bank raises interest rate to 3.85% amid surging inflation
Above 4% jumps to 49%8%
The Reserve Bank of Australia increased its benchmark interest rate after inflation rose to 3.8% for the 12 months through December, signaling persistent inflation pressures. This global inflationary environment influenced market expectations for U.S. inflation outcomes above 4% and 5%.
Apr 3 2026
S&P 500 plunges nearly 5% amid trade war fears and inflation concerns
Above 6% plunges to 10%37%
Stock market declines driven by fears of escalating trade tensions and persistent inflation pressures reflected investor worries about economic growth and inflation control. This contributed to a decline in market confidence for inflation outcomes above 6%, 8%, and 10%.
Mar 17 2026
Hiring slowdown in December challenges Federal Reserve's inflation control efforts
Above 5% jumps to 24%6%
Data showed sluggish hiring and a slight uptick in unemployment, complicating the Fed's dual mandate to control inflation and maximize employment. This increased uncertainty about future interest rate moves, affecting inflation expectations and market pricing for outcomes above 5% and 6%.
Mar 10 2026
US wholesale prices surge 4% amid Iran war driving energy costs higher
Above 4% surges to 32%17%
The Labor Department reported a 4% year-over-year increase in the producer price index in March, the largest in over three years, driven by an 8.5% surge in energy prices due to the Iran war. This heightened inflation concerns and influenced market prices, especially for inflation above 4% and 5%.
Mar 10 2026
Popular super greens supplement recalled amid salmonella outbreak
Above 4% surges to 33%18%
The recall of a popular dietary supplement due to salmonella contamination raised concerns about food safety and potential impacts on food prices, contributing to inflation uncertainty and affecting market inflation expectations.
Mar 10 2026
Hiring slowed in December despite Fed rate cuts
Above 5% jumps to 17%8%
December 2025 jobs data showed a slowdown in hiring with only 50,000 jobs added, defying Federal Reserve efforts to boost the labor market through interest rate cuts. Sluggish hiring and low wage growth tempered inflation expectations, causing fluctuations in market prices for higher inflation thresholds.
Feb 25 2026
Iran war drives up U.S. wholesale energy prices sharply
Above 4% rises to 15%3%
The ongoing war in Iran caused energy prices to surge, pushing wholesale prices up 4% year-over-year in March 2026. This increase in energy costs contributed to inflationary pressures, raising market expectations for inflation outcomes above 4%.
Jan 17 2026
Labor Department delays January jobs report due to government shutdown
Above 4% dips to 9%3%
The partial federal government shutdown delayed the release of the January 2026 jobs report, creating uncertainty about labor market conditions. This uncertainty contributed to volatility in inflation expectations, as labor market strength influences inflation dynamics.
Jan 15 2026
Consumer spending drives U.S. economy growth at fastest pace in two years
Above 4% surges to 33%19%
The Commerce Department reported a 4.4% annualized GDP growth rate in Q3 2025, driven by strong consumer spending. Despite solid growth, inflation remained elevated, influencing market expectations that inflation would stay above 4%.
Jan 14 2026
US voters overwhelmingly oppose taking Greenland by military force
Above 4% dips to 12%2%
Polls revealed nearly 9 in 10 Americans opposed military action to acquire Greenland, reflecting geopolitical tensions and uncertainty. While not directly linked to inflation, such geopolitical risks can influence energy prices and inflation expectations, indirectly affecting market pricing for inflation outcomes.
Dec 9 2025
Grocery price inflation surges with fastest monthly pace since 2022
Above 4.5% jumps to 56%6%
Government data showed food prices rising sharply, with coffee and ground beef prices up nearly 20% and 15.5% respectively year-over-year in December. This defied claims of falling grocery prices and contributed to inflation concerns, supporting market prices for inflation above 4.5% and 5%.
Dec 9 2025
Government shutdown delays January jobs report and other economic data
Above 4% dips to 14%4%
The partial federal government shutdown delayed the release of key economic data including the January jobs report, creating uncertainty about the labor market and inflation trends. This delay contributed to market volatility and cautious inflation expectations.
Dec 4 2025
Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge ticks up in November
Above 4% surges to 33%19%
Consumer prices rose 2.8% in November 2025 from a year earlier, slightly higher than October's 2.7%, indicating inflation remained stubbornly elevated. This data reassured the Fed about the economy's solid footing but suggested inflation would stay above target, supporting higher inflation market prices.
Nov 13 2025
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates three times to counter softer jobs market
Above 4% plunges to 18%29%
In late 2025, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate three times to stimulate the economy amid a slowing labor market. This monetary policy action aimed to support growth but raised concerns about potential inflationary pressures, influencing market expectations for inflation to remain elevated.
Nov 13 2025
Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge ticks up in November amid strong consumer spending
Above 4% plunges to 18%29%
The Commerce Department reported consumer prices rose 2.8% year-over-year in November, slightly higher than October, signaling persistent inflation. Solid consumer spending suggested the economy remained robust, reducing expectations for immediate Fed rate cuts and supporting higher inflation probabilities above 4%.
Nov 13 2025
Wholesale prices surge 4% amid Iran war energy price spike
Above 4% plunges to 18%29%
The Iran war caused energy prices to soar, pushing U.S. wholesale prices up 4% year-over-year in March 2025, the largest increase in over three years. This surge in wholesale prices signaled inflationary pressures that influenced market expectations for higher inflation in 2026, particularly affecting the 'Above 4%' and 'Above 6%' outcomes.
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Domande frequenti
"Quanto sarà alta l'inflazione nel 2026?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 8 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Oltre il 3%" a 100%, seguito da "Oltre il 3,5%" a 100%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 100¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 100% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.
Ad oggi, "Quanto sarà alta l'inflazione nel 2026?" ha generato $1.2 million in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Nov 13, 2025. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.
Per fare trading su "Quanto sarà alta l'inflazione nel 2026?", esplora i 8 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.
L'attuale favorito per "Quanto sarà alta l'inflazione nel 2026?" è "Oltre il 3%" a 100%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 100% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Oltre il 3,5%" a 100%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.
Le regole di risoluzione per "Quanto sarà alta l'inflazione nel 2026?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.
Sì. Non è necessario fare trading per restare informati. Questa pagina funziona come un tracker live per "Quanto sarà alta l'inflazione nel 2026?". Le probabilità degli esiti si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che arrivano nuove operazioni. Puoi aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti e controllare la sezione commenti per vedere cosa dicono gli altri trader. Puoi anche usare i filtri temporali sul grafico per vedere come sono cambiate le quote nel tempo. È una finestra gratuita e in tempo reale su ciò che il mercato si aspetta accada.
Le quote di Polymarket sono stabilite da veri trader che investono denaro reale nelle loro convinzioni, il che tende a produrre previsioni accurate. Con $1.2 million scambiati su "Quanto sarà alta l'inflazione nel 2026?", questi prezzi aggregano la conoscenza collettiva e la convinzione di migliaia di partecipanti — spesso superando sondaggi, previsioni di esperti e indagini tradizionali. I mercati predittivi come Polymarket hanno un forte track record di accuratezza, specialmente man mano che gli eventi si avvicinano alla data di risoluzione. Ad esempio, Polymarket ha un punteggio di accuratezza a un mese di 94%. Per le ultime statistiche sull'accuratezza delle previsioni di Polymarket, visita la pagina accuratezza su Polymarket.
Per piazzare la tua prima operazione su "Quanto sarà alta l'inflazione nel 2026?", registrati per un account Polymarket gratuito e finanzialo con crypto, carta di credito o debito, o bonifico bancario. Una volta finanziato il tuo account, torna su questa pagina, seleziona l'esito su cui vuoi fare trading, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se sei nuovo ai mercati predittivi, clicca il link "Come funziona" in cima a qualsiasi pagina Polymarket per una guida passo-passo su come funziona il trading.
Su Polymarket, il prezzo di ogni esito rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Un prezzo di 100¢ per "Oltre il 3%" nel mercato "Quanto sarà alta l'inflazione nel 2026?" significa che i trader credono collettivamente che ci sia circa una probabilità di 100% che "Oltre il 3%" sia il risultato corretto. Se compri azioni "Sì" a 100¢ e l'esito è corretto, ricevi $1,00 per azione — un profitto di 0¢ per azione. Se errato, quelle azioni valgono $0.
Il mercato "Quanto sarà alta l'inflazione nel 2026?" è programmato per la risoluzione il o intorno al Dec 31, 2026. Questo significa che il trading rimarrà aperto e le quote continueranno a cambiare man mano che emergono nuove informazioni fino a quella data. La tempistica esatta di risoluzione dipende da quando il risultato ufficiale diventa disponibile, come indicato nella sezione "Regole" su questa pagina.
Il mercato "Quanto sarà alta l'inflazione nel 2026?" ha una comunità attiva di 31 commenti dove i trader condividono le loro analisi, discutono gli esiti e commentano gli sviluppi dell'ultima ora. Scorri in basso alla sezione commenti per leggere cosa pensano gli altri partecipanti. Puoi anche filtrare per "Maggiori detentori" per vedere su cosa sono posizionati i più grandi trader del mercato, o controllare la scheda "Attività" per un feed in tempo reale delle operazioni.
Polymarket è il più grande mercato predittivo al mondo, dove puoi restare informato e trarre profitto dalla tua conoscenza di eventi reali. I trader comprano e vendono azioni sugli esiti per argomenti che spaziano dalla politica e le elezioni alle crypto, finanza, sport, tecnologia e cultura, inclusi mercati come "Quanto sarà alta l'inflazione nel 2026?". I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale supportate da convinzione finanziaria, fornendo spesso segnali più rapidi e accurati di sondaggi, opinionisti o indagini tradizionali.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
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