Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 47.5% implied probability for U.K. annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.5% in 2026, driven primarily by a Middle East energy shock from recent conflict escalation, which the Bank of England estimates will keep CPI above 3% for much of the year. February 2026 CPI held steady at 3.0%, but business surveys show expected price rises accelerating to 3.5% over the next year, with sticky services inflation and wage pressures adding upside risks. The BoE maintained Bank Rate at 3.75% on March 19 amid these dynamics, while policymakers like Megan Greene emphasize inflation risks without rushing hikes. March CPI data due April 22 and the next MPC decision on April 30 could catalyze shifts in these market-implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoU.K. Annual Inflation 2026
U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
4.5%+ 34%
3.5–3.9% 30%
2.5–2.9% 24%
4.0-4.4% 18%
NUOVO
NUOVO
20 gen 2027
<1.0%
3%
1.0–1.4%
5%
1.5–1.9%
11%
2.0–2.4%
5%
2.5–2.9%
24%
3.5–3.9%
30%
4.0-4.4%
20%
4.5%+
49%
4.5%+ 34%
3.5–3.9% 30%
2.5–2.9% 24%
4.0-4.4% 18%
NUOVO
NUOVO
20 gen 2027
<1.0%
$601 Vol.
3%
1.0–1.4%
$325 Vol.
5%
1.5–1.9%
$478 Vol.
11%
2.0–2.4%
$305 Vol.
5%
2.5–2.9%
$380 Vol.
24%
3.5–3.9%
$252 Vol.
30%
4.0-4.4%
$398 Vol.
20%
4.5%+
$753 Vol.
49%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendarTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 47.5% implied probability for U.K. annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.5% in 2026, driven primarily by a Middle East energy shock from recent conflict escalation, which the Bank of England estimates will keep CPI above 3% for much of the year. February 2026 CPI held steady at 3.0%, but business surveys show expected price rises accelerating to 3.5% over the next year, with sticky services inflation and wage pressures adding upside risks. The BoE maintained Bank Rate at 3.75% on March 19 amid these dynamics, while policymakers like Megan Greene emphasize inflation risks without rushing hikes. March CPI data due April 22 and the next MPC decision on April 30 could catalyze shifts in these market-implied odds.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Mercato aperto: Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$3,492Data di fine
20 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendarTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 47.5% implied probability for U.K. annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.5% in 2026, driven primarily by a Middle East energy shock from recent conflict escalation, which the Bank of England estimates will keep CPI above 3% for much of the year. February 2026 CPI held steady at 3.0%, but business surveys show expected price rises accelerating to 3.5% over the next year, with sticky services inflation and wage pressures adding upside risks. The BoE maintained Bank Rate at 3.75% on March 19 amid these dynamics, while policymakers like Megan Greene emphasize inflation risks without rushing hikes. March CPI data due April 22 and the next MPC decision on April 30 could catalyze shifts in these market-implied odds.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Volume
$3,492Data di fine
20 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 47.5% implied probability for U.K. annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.5% in 2026, driven primarily by a Middle East energy shock from recent conflict escalation, which the Bank of England estimates will keep CPI above 3% for much of the year. February 2026 CPI held steady at 3.0%, but business surveys show expected price rises accelerating to 3.5% over the next year, with sticky services inflation and wage pressures adding upside risks. The BoE maintained Bank Rate at 3.75% on March 19 amid these dynamics, while policymakers like Megan Greene emphasize inflation risks without rushing hikes. March CPI data due April 22 and the next MPC decision on April 30 could catalyze shifts in these market-implied odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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