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icon for Crescita del PIL degli Stati Uniti nel primo trimestre del 2026?
Economy·Indicatori Macro

Crescita del PIL degli Stati Uniti nel primo trimestre del 2026?

icon for Crescita del PIL degli Stati Uniti nel primo trimestre del 2026?
Economy·Indicatori Macro

Crescita del PIL degli Stati Uniti nel primo trimestre del 2026?

Ended: apr 30

lug 30

gen 29, 2027

Ended: apr 30

lug 30

gen 29, 2027

2,0–2,5% 100.0%

<1,0% <1%

1,0–1,5% <1%

1,5–2,0% <1%

Polymarket

$475,166 Vol.

2,0–2,5% 100.0%

<1,0% <1%

1,0–1,5% <1%

1,5–2,0% <1%

Polymarket

$475,166 Vol.

<1,0%

$57,416 Vol.

No

1,0–1,5%

$24,990 Vol.

No

1,5–2,0%

$51,775 Vol.

No

2,0–2,5%

$73,150 Vol.

Sì

2,5–3,0%

$42,622 Vol.

No

3,0–3,5%

$125,822 Vol.

No

≥3,5%

$99,391 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.The Bureau of Economic Analysis' advance estimate released April 30, 2026, pegged U.S. real GDP growth at 2.0% annualized for Q1, spurring Polymarket traders to price 100% implied probability into the 2.0–2.5% outcome as the market resolves strictly to this figure. This marked rebound from Q4 2025's meager 0.5% expansion reflected gains across investment (boosted by AI-related equipment spending), exports, personal consumption expenditures, and government outlays, partially offset by rising imports; the print slightly trailed consensus forecasts near 2.3%. While historical revisions average under 0.5 percentage points, more complete data in May's second estimate could marginally adjust the trajectory, though unlikely to breach bin thresholds given component stability.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$475,166
Data di fine
30 apr 2026
Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.

Esito proposto: No

Nessuna contestazione

Esito finale: No

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.The Bureau of Economic Analysis' advance estimate released April 30, 2026, pegged U.S. real GDP growth at 2.0% annualized for Q1, spurring Polymarket traders to price 100% implied probability into the 2.0–2.5% outcome as the market resolves strictly to this figure. This marked rebound from Q4 2025's meager 0.5% expansion reflected gains across investment (boosted by AI-related equipment spending), exports, personal consumption expenditures, and government outlays, partially offset by rising imports; the print slightly trailed consensus forecasts near 2.3%. While historical revisions average under 0.5 percentage points, more complete data in May's second estimate could marginally adjust the trajectory, though unlikely to breach bin thresholds given component stability.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$475,166
Data di fine
30 apr 2026
Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.

Esito proposto: No

Nessuna contestazione

Esito finale: No

Correlati

icon for Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?

Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?

34%
icon for La crescita del PIL degli Stati Uniti nel 2026 sarà compresa tra il 2,0% e il 2,5%?

La crescita del PIL degli Stati Uniti nel 2026 sarà compresa tra il 2,0% e il 2,5%?

35%
Sì
icon for Crescita negativa del PIL nel 2026?

Crescita negativa del PIL nel 2026?

6%
Sì

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Domande frequenti

"Crescita del PIL degli Stati Uniti nel primo trimestre del 2026?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 7 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "2,0–2,5%" a 100%, seguito da "<1,0%" a 0%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 100¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 100% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Crescita del PIL degli Stati Uniti nel primo trimestre del 2026?" ha generato $475.2K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Dec 23, 2025. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Crescita del PIL degli Stati Uniti nel primo trimestre del 2026?", esplora i 7 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Crescita del PIL degli Stati Uniti nel primo trimestre del 2026?" è "2,0–2,5%" a 100%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 100% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "<1,0%" a 0%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Crescita del PIL degli Stati Uniti nel primo trimestre del 2026?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.