Polymarket traders assign a leading 36.7% implied probability to UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 1.5-1.8%, closely trailed by 1.2-1.5% at 26.9% and 0.9-1.2% at 25.9%, reflecting tight competition amid mixed signals. Today's Office for National Statistics release showed February monthly GDP surging 0.5% month-on-month—far exceeding the 0.2% consensus forecast—and three months to January revised up to 0.3%, with services up 0.5% and production 1.2%, signaling robust Q1 momentum into March despite January's flat reading. However, March PMIs indicated services slowdown to 51.2 and construction contraction at 45.6, while OECD and IMF slashed full-year 2026 forecasts to 0.7-1.1% citing Iran war energy shocks and inflation risks. Key swing factors include forthcoming March monthly GDP and Q1 preliminary estimate around May 14, alongside imported energy price volatility.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato1,5-1,8% 36.6%
0,3-0,6% 28.0%
0,9-1,2% 23.6%
0,0-0,3% 22%
$23,440 Vol.
$23,440 Vol.
14 mag 2026
Negativo
6%
0,0-0,3%
22%
0,3-0,6%
15%
0,6-0,9%
18%
0,9-1,2%
25%
1,2-1,5%
28%
1,5-1,8%
37%
1,8%+
25%
1,5-1,8% 36.6%
0,3-0,6% 28.0%
0,9-1,2% 23.6%
0,0-0,3% 22%
$23,440 Vol.
$23,440 Vol.
14 mag 2026
Negativo
$1,899 Vol.
6%
0,0-0,3%
$9,477 Vol.
22%
0,3-0,6%
$1,507 Vol.
15%
0,6-0,9%
$7,292 Vol.
18%
0,9-1,2%
$734 Vol.
25%
1,2-1,5%
$669 Vol.
28%
1,5-1,8%
$770 Vol.
37%
1,8%+
$1,091 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders assign a leading 36.7% implied probability to UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 1.5-1.8%, closely trailed by 1.2-1.5% at 26.9% and 0.9-1.2% at 25.9%, reflecting tight competition amid mixed signals. Today's Office for National Statistics release showed February monthly GDP surging 0.5% month-on-month—far exceeding the 0.2% consensus forecast—and three months to January revised up to 0.3%, with services up 0.5% and production 1.2%, signaling robust Q1 momentum into March despite January's flat reading. However, March PMIs indicated services slowdown to 51.2 and construction contraction at 45.6, while OECD and IMF slashed full-year 2026 forecasts to 0.7-1.1% citing Iran war energy shocks and inflation risks. Key swing factors include forthcoming March monthly GDP and Q1 preliminary estimate around May 14, alongside imported energy price volatility.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
Volume
$23,440Data di fine
14 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders assign a leading 36.7% implied probability to UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 1.5-1.8%, closely trailed by 1.2-1.5% at 26.9% and 0.9-1.2% at 25.9%, reflecting tight competition amid mixed signals. Today's Office for National Statistics release showed February monthly GDP surging 0.5% month-on-month—far exceeding the 0.2% consensus forecast—and three months to January revised up to 0.3%, with services up 0.5% and production 1.2%, signaling robust Q1 momentum into March despite January's flat reading. However, March PMIs indicated services slowdown to 51.2 and construction contraction at 45.6, while OECD and IMF slashed full-year 2026 forecasts to 0.7-1.1% citing Iran war energy shocks and inflation risks. Key swing factors include forthcoming March monthly GDP and Q1 preliminary estimate around May 14, alongside imported energy price volatility.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$23,440Data di fine
14 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a leading 36.7% implied probability to UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 1.5-1.8%, closely trailed by 1.2-1.5% at 26.9% and 0.9-1.2% at 25.9%, reflecting tight competition amid mixed signals. Today's Office for National Statistics release showed February monthly GDP surging 0.5% month-on-month—far exceeding the 0.2% consensus forecast—and three months to January revised up to 0.3%, with services up 0.5% and production 1.2%, signaling robust Q1 momentum into March despite January's flat reading. However, March PMIs indicated services slowdown to 51.2 and construction contraction at 45.6, while OECD and IMF slashed full-year 2026 forecasts to 0.7-1.1% citing Iran war energy shocks and inflation risks. Key swing factors include forthcoming March monthly GDP and Q1 preliminary estimate around May 14, alongside imported energy price volatility.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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