Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 79.5% implied probability to "No" for Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by April 30, driven by the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports initiated April 12 amid collapsed peace talks, which has sustained transits at under 10% of pre-crisis levels despite sporadic tanker passages. Ship-tracking data from the past week confirms minimal rebound from February's 95% traffic plunge, exacerbated by Iranian sea mine threats, elevated war-risk insurance premia, and vessel diversions, with experts forecasting weeks-to-months for recovery. With just two weeks to resolution—defined as seven-day average transits exceeding 60 per IMF PortWatch benchmarks—traders price persistent geopolitical risks and supply chain disruptions as dominant headwinds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$9,789,097 Vol.
$9,789,097 Vol.
30 apr 2026
Sì
$9,789,097 Vol.
$9,789,097 Vol.
30 apr 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 79.5% implied probability to "No" for Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by April 30, driven by the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports initiated April 12 amid collapsed peace talks, which has sustained transits at under 10% of pre-crisis levels despite sporadic tanker passages. Ship-tracking data from the past week confirms minimal rebound from February's 95% traffic plunge, exacerbated by Iranian sea mine threats, elevated war-risk insurance premia, and vessel diversions, with experts forecasting weeks-to-months for recovery. With just two weeks to resolution—defined as seven-day average transits exceeding 60 per IMF PortWatch benchmarks—traders price persistent geopolitical risks and supply chain disruptions as dominant headwinds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercato aperto: Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ET
Volume
$9,789,097Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 79.5% implied probability to "No" for Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by April 30, driven by the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports initiated April 12 amid collapsed peace talks, which has sustained transits at under 10% of pre-crisis levels despite sporadic tanker passages. Ship-tracking data from the past week confirms minimal rebound from February's 95% traffic plunge, exacerbated by Iranian sea mine threats, elevated war-risk insurance premia, and vessel diversions, with experts forecasting weeks-to-months for recovery. With just two weeks to resolution—defined as seven-day average transits exceeding 60 per IMF PortWatch benchmarks—traders price persistent geopolitical risks and supply chain disruptions as dominant headwinds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$9,790,218Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 9, 2026, 2:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 79.5% implied probability to "No" for Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by April 30, driven by the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports initiated April 12 amid collapsed peace talks, which has sustained transits at under 10% of pre-crisis levels despite sporadic tanker passages. Ship-tracking data from the past week confirms minimal rebound from February's 95% traffic plunge, exacerbated by Iranian sea mine threats, elevated war-risk insurance premia, and vessel diversions, with experts forecasting weeks-to-months for recovery. With just two weeks to resolution—defined as seven-day average transits exceeding 60 per IMF PortWatch benchmarks—traders price persistent geopolitical risks and supply chain disruptions as dominant headwinds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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