A fragile two-week ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran—brokered by Pakistan on April 7 following intense US-Israeli airstrikes that began February 28—holds tenuously as the April 22 expiration approaches, with the US naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz remaining in effect to enforce sanctions and prevent missile resupply. Recent diplomatic efforts intensified on April 16 as Pakistan's army chief met Iran's foreign minister in Tehran, amid reports of Iranian concessions allowing safe passage through the Omani side of Hormuz and potential nuclear program breakthroughs. Satellite imagery shows Iran clearing debris from struck missile sites, signaling restoration efforts, while President Trump weighs limited strikes on power infrastructure if negotiations collapse, underscoring persistent escalation risks for traders assessing de-escalation timelines.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'azione militare contro l'Iran finisce con...?
L'azione militare contro l'Iran finisce con...?
$29,791,851 Vol.
30 apr 2026
17 aprile
100%
$29,791,851 Vol.
17 aprile
$26,768,794 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.A fragile two-week ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran—brokered by Pakistan on April 7 following intense US-Israeli airstrikes that began February 28—holds tenuously as the April 22 expiration approaches, with the US naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz remaining in effect to enforce sanctions and prevent missile resupply. Recent diplomatic efforts intensified on April 16 as Pakistan's army chief met Iran's foreign minister in Tehran, amid reports of Iranian concessions allowing safe passage through the Omani side of Hormuz and potential nuclear program breakthroughs. Satellite imagery shows Iran clearing debris from struck missile sites, signaling restoration efforts, while President Trump weighs limited strikes on power infrastructure if negotiations collapse, underscoring persistent escalation risks for traders assessing de-escalation timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$29,791,851Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: Sì
Contestato
Esito proposto: Sì
Contestato
Revisione finale
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.A fragile two-week ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran—brokered by Pakistan on April 7 following intense US-Israeli airstrikes that began February 28—holds tenuously as the April 22 expiration approaches, with the US naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz remaining in effect to enforce sanctions and prevent missile resupply. Recent diplomatic efforts intensified on April 16 as Pakistan's army chief met Iran's foreign minister in Tehran, amid reports of Iranian concessions allowing safe passage through the Omani side of Hormuz and potential nuclear program breakthroughs. Satellite imagery shows Iran clearing debris from struck missile sites, signaling restoration efforts, while President Trump weighs limited strikes on power infrastructure if negotiations collapse, underscoring persistent escalation risks for traders assessing de-escalation timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$29,791,851Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: Sì
Contestato
Esito proposto: Sì
Contestato
Revisione finale
A fragile two-week ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran—brokered by Pakistan on April 7 following intense US-Israeli airstrikes that began February 28—holds tenuously as the April 22 expiration approaches, with the US naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz remaining in effect to enforce sanctions and prevent missile resupply. Recent diplomatic efforts intensified on April 16 as Pakistan's army chief met Iran's foreign minister in Tehran, amid reports of Iranian concessions allowing safe passage through the Omani side of Hormuz and potential nuclear program breakthroughs. Satellite imagery shows Iran clearing debris from struck missile sites, signaling restoration efforts, while President Trump weighs limited strikes on power infrastructure if negotiations collapse, underscoring persistent escalation risks for traders assessing de-escalation timelines.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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