The April 30 deadline for a US-Iran nuclear deal expired without agreement, driving trader consensus to 100% "No" as negotiations stalled over Iran's nuclear program limits, ballistic missile curbs, sanctions relief, and the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Iran's April 27 proposal to reopen the strait in exchange for postponing nuclear talks was rebuffed by the Trump administration, which insists on a comprehensive deal first amid ceasefire pressures and escalation risks. Ongoing 2025–2026 diplomacy, initiated post-Trump's letter, hit impasse with no mediators bridging gaps before expiration. Realistic shifts remain improbable absent a late-breaking official announcement, though Polymarket resolution awaits unambiguous confirmation of any deal terms by the cutoff.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAccordo nucleare USA-Iran entro il 30 aprile?
Accordo nucleare USA-Iran entro il 30 aprile?
Sì
$2,509,427 Vol.
$2,509,427 Vol.
30 apr 2026
Sì
$2,509,427 Vol.
$2,509,427 Vol.
30 apr 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.The April 30 deadline for a US-Iran nuclear deal expired without agreement, driving trader consensus to 100% "No" as negotiations stalled over Iran's nuclear program limits, ballistic missile curbs, sanctions relief, and the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Iran's April 27 proposal to reopen the strait in exchange for postponing nuclear talks was rebuffed by the Trump administration, which insists on a comprehensive deal first amid ceasefire pressures and escalation risks. Ongoing 2025–2026 diplomacy, initiated post-Trump's letter, hit impasse with no mediators bridging gaps before expiration. Realistic shifts remain improbable absent a late-breaking official announcement, though Polymarket resolution awaits unambiguous confirmation of any deal terms by the cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercato aperto: Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$2,509,427Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.The April 30 deadline for a US-Iran nuclear deal expired without agreement, driving trader consensus to 100% "No" as negotiations stalled over Iran's nuclear program limits, ballistic missile curbs, sanctions relief, and the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Iran's April 27 proposal to reopen the strait in exchange for postponing nuclear talks was rebuffed by the Trump administration, which insists on a comprehensive deal first amid ceasefire pressures and escalation risks. Ongoing 2025–2026 diplomacy, initiated post-Trump's letter, hit impasse with no mediators bridging gaps before expiration. Realistic shifts remain improbable absent a late-breaking official announcement, though Polymarket resolution awaits unambiguous confirmation of any deal terms by the cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$2,509,427Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 9, 2026, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
The April 30 deadline for a US-Iran nuclear deal expired without agreement, driving trader consensus to 100% "No" as negotiations stalled over Iran's nuclear program limits, ballistic missile curbs, sanctions relief, and the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Iran's April 27 proposal to reopen the strait in exchange for postponing nuclear talks was rebuffed by the Trump administration, which insists on a comprehensive deal first amid ceasefire pressures and escalation risks. Ongoing 2025–2026 diplomacy, initiated post-Trump's letter, hit impasse with no mediators bridging gaps before expiration. Realistic shifts remain improbable absent a late-breaking official announcement, though Polymarket resolution awaits unambiguous confirmation of any deal terms by the cutoff.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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