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Geopolitica·Iran

Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?

Market icon
Geopolitica·Iran

Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?

44% probabilità
Polymarket

$19,418 Vol.

44% probabilità
Polymarket

$19,418 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify. For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe. Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity. Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 56% for any country expelling an Israeli ambassador by December 31, reflecting no such actions amid ongoing Middle East tensions despite diplomatic frictions. South Africa's January 30 declaration of Israel's top envoy—its highest-ranking diplomat absent a full ambassador—as persona non grata prompted Israeli retaliation but fell short of ambassador-level expulsion. Spain's March 11 permanent withdrawal of its own ambassador, citing Israeli "insults" over Gaza and opposition to US-Israeli strikes on Iran that killed senior officials like Ali Larijani, further strained ties without reciprocal ambassador ousters. Absent fresh catalysts like escalation in Lebanon or Iran proxy actions in the past month, traders weigh historical patterns of summons over severances, though late-year volatility from summits or military developments could shift odds.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.

For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.

Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.

Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$19,418
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify. For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe. Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity. Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify. For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe. Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity. Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 56% for any country expelling an Israeli ambassador by December 31, reflecting no such actions amid ongoing Middle East tensions despite diplomatic frictions. South Africa's January 30 declaration of Israel's top envoy—its highest-ranking diplomat absent a full ambassador—as persona non grata prompted Israeli retaliation but fell short of ambassador-level expulsion. Spain's March 11 permanent withdrawal of its own ambassador, citing Israeli "insults" over Gaza and opposition to US-Israeli strikes on Iran that killed senior officials like Ali Larijani, further strained ties without reciprocal ambassador ousters. Absent fresh catalysts like escalation in Lebanon or Iran proxy actions in the past month, traders weigh historical patterns of summons over severances, though late-year volatility from summits or military developments could shift odds.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.

For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.

Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.

Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$19,418
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify. For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe. Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity. Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Domande frequenti

"Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni "Sì" o "No" in base a se credono che questo evento accadrà. La probabilità attuale aggregata è 45% per "Yes". Ad esempio, se "Sì" è quotato a 45¢, il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 45% che questo evento si verifichi. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?" ha generato $19.4K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Mar 31, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?", scegli semplicemente se ritieni che la risposta sia "Sì" o "No". Ogni lato ha un prezzo corrente che riflette la probabilità implicita del mercato. Inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se compri azioni "Sì" e l'esito si risolve come "Sì", ogni azione paga $1. Se si risolve come "No", le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

La probabilità attuale per "Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?" è 45% per "Yes". Questo significa che la comunità Polymarket attualmente ritiene che ci sia una probabilità di 45% che questo evento si verifichi. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale basandosi sulle operazioni effettive, fornendo un segnale continuamente aggiornato di ciò che il mercato si aspetta accada.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.