A fragile two-week ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran—brokered by Pakistan and effective since April 8—holds tenuously amid stalled diplomacy and ongoing proxy clashes, shaping trader consensus on when the conflict that erupted February 28 with US-Israeli airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei might end. Direct US-Iran talks in Islamabad on April 11-12 collapsed over Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile, Strait of Hormuz control, and frozen assets, prompting US naval interdictions of Iranian vessels and mine-clearing operations while Iran blocks non-approved shipping. Hezbollah's rocket and drone barrages on northern Israel continue unabated, excluded from the truce, as mediators including Turkey and Egypt push for a second negotiation round before the April 21 deadline, with risks of renewed airstrikes, energy infrastructure targeting, or Hormuz escalation looming.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIl conflitto Iran x Israele/Stati Uniti finisce con...?
Il conflitto Iran x Israele/Stati Uniti finisce con...?
$42,062,575 Vol.
7 apr 2026
7 aprile
87%
15 aprile
86%
30 aprile
89%
15 maggio
93%
30 giugno
96%
31 dicembre
97%
$42,062,575 Vol.
7 aprile
$15,171,188 Vol.
87%
15 aprile
$8,955,964 Vol.
86%
30 aprile
$3,831,019 Vol.
89%
15 maggio
$3,408,882 Vol.
93%
30 giugno
$2,833,150 Vol.
96%
31 dicembre
$2,701,292 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.A fragile two-week ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran—brokered by Pakistan and effective since April 8—holds tenuously amid stalled diplomacy and ongoing proxy clashes, shaping trader consensus on when the conflict that erupted February 28 with US-Israeli airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei might end. Direct US-Iran talks in Islamabad on April 11-12 collapsed over Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile, Strait of Hormuz control, and frozen assets, prompting US naval interdictions of Iranian vessels and mine-clearing operations while Iran blocks non-approved shipping. Hezbollah's rocket and drone barrages on northern Israel continue unabated, excluded from the truce, as mediators including Turkey and Egypt push for a second negotiation round before the April 21 deadline, with risks of renewed airstrikes, energy infrastructure targeting, or Hormuz escalation looming.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Mercato aperto: Mar 24, 2026, 1:49 PM ET
Volume
$42,062,575Data di fine
31 mar 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.A fragile two-week ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran—brokered by Pakistan and effective since April 8—holds tenuously amid stalled diplomacy and ongoing proxy clashes, shaping trader consensus on when the conflict that erupted February 28 with US-Israeli airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei might end. Direct US-Iran talks in Islamabad on April 11-12 collapsed over Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile, Strait of Hormuz control, and frozen assets, prompting US naval interdictions of Iranian vessels and mine-clearing operations while Iran blocks non-approved shipping. Hezbollah's rocket and drone barrages on northern Israel continue unabated, excluded from the truce, as mediators including Turkey and Egypt push for a second negotiation round before the April 21 deadline, with risks of renewed airstrikes, energy infrastructure targeting, or Hormuz escalation looming.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Volume
$42,062,575Data di fine
31 mar 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A fragile two-week ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran—brokered by Pakistan and effective since April 8—holds tenuously amid stalled diplomacy and ongoing proxy clashes, shaping trader consensus on when the conflict that erupted February 28 with US-Israeli airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei might end. Direct US-Iran talks in Islamabad on April 11-12 collapsed over Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile, Strait of Hormuz control, and frozen assets, prompting US naval interdictions of Iranian vessels and mine-clearing operations while Iran blocks non-approved shipping. Hezbollah's rocket and drone barrages on northern Israel continue unabated, excluded from the truce, as mediators including Turkey and Egypt push for a second negotiation round before the April 21 deadline, with risks of renewed airstrikes, energy infrastructure targeting, or Hormuz escalation looming.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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