Israel's military operations in southern Lebanon have intensified since late May 2026, with the IDF declaring areas south of the Zahrani River—including Tyre—as combat zones and issuing evacuation orders for the city and surrounding villages. Airstrikes targeting Hezbollah infrastructure followed immediately, alongside reported ground advances that crossed the Litani River for the first time since 2006 and reached the outskirts of nearby cities such as Nabatieh. These steps reflect efforts to expand beyond prior buffer zones and pressure Hezbollah positions, though confirmed ground entry into Tyre municipality itself has not occurred amid ongoing clashes and strikes. The market reflects trader assessment of whether these operations will produce a physical military incursion by specific deadlines amid the fluid conflict dynamics.